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Down the Rabbit Hole with Buscemi: October 6th-9th

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Down the Rabbit Hole with Buscemi: October 6th-9th

Postby Buscemi2 » October 3rd, 2017, 2:53 am

After the dog days of summer and the early fall, back to school/film festival blues, we truly enter the beginning of the fall movie season. Previous first week of October hits have included The Martian, Gone Girl, Annabelle, Gravity, Taken 2, Pitch Perfect, and The Social Network. And that's just this decade. This weekend gives us a possible contender to join that list, a big question mark with a controversial fandom, and a literary adaptation of a popular survival novel. Plus, there’s four limited releases and a lot of debate sure to come on the artistic merits of replicants, ponies, and that studly Idris Elba.

Last Week

In a weekend where the top three films were separated by less than $200,000, Kingsman: The Golden Circle remained in first despite a 57% drop, pulling in $16.9 million. Second was It, finishing only $33,000 behind Kingsman, also at $16.9 million. Opening in a disappointing third was American Made with $16.8 million (looks like audiences are tiring of Tom Cruise again). Fourth place was the stillborn attempt at a spinoff The Lego Ninjago Movie at $11.6 million while Flatliners rounded out the top five with $6.6 million.

On the PTA front, Victoria & Abdul won again with $14,184 while Take Every Wave was the best of the openers with $13,819.

This Week

"Blade": Plug it In, Plug it In

If any film-loving person could pick the greatest month in film history, June 1982 has to be in the running. This month gave us Star Trek II: The Wrath of Khan, Poltergeist, E.T. the Extra-Terrestrial, John Carpenter's The Thing, and of course, Blade Runner. Sure, the month also gave us Grease 2 and Megaforce but nothing's perfect. And because the month was so good, something had to underperform and Blade Runner (along with The Thing, a critical pariah in its day) was one of those films. However, the film was rescued through home video, revival screenings (one of these, a 1991 series of screenings at Los Angeles's famous Nuart would give birth to the many restorations), and finally, two well-received reissues in 1992 and 2007 that gave us edits closer to director Ridley Scott's original vision.

With this new appreciation, Warner Bros. sought to make a sequel. Despite the closed ending seen in the director's cuts, Warner Bros. knew there was money to be had and has spent years making it happen. Many scripts have been rejected (one of these, written by co-writer David Webb Peoples, became the basis for 1998's Soldier), Harrison Ford (whose experience making the first film was an unhappy one) proved to be a hard bargain, and some rights (dating back to when Embassy Pictures acquired television and home video rights to the original version) still being held by Sony made this a difficult process but finally, we get Blade Runner 2049 (Warner Bros.), opening in 3,900 theatres.

Produced by Ridley Scott, co-written by Hampton Fancher, and directed by Denis Villeneuve, the premise of this sequel focuses on a new officer (Ryan Gosling) who discovers a secret that could bring the end of all civilization. In his quest for justice, he finds Rick Deckard (Harrison Ford returning) and the two have to team up to save the human race. Ana de Armas, Jared Leto, Robin Wright, Dave Bautista, Edward James Olmos (the only other actor returning from the first film), and Barkhad Abdi also star.

I have two things about this film. First of all, there was no need for a sequel. Second, Rick Deckard was human after all? But anyway, Warner Bros. and box office trackers have been pretty high on this one. However, I'm not really buying it. For one, the film runs well over two and a half hours. Sure, audiences love long movies but the original was under two hours and I have to wonder how Villeneuve is going to fill the run time (probably the same way he and the script did with Prisoners, by making the characters complete idiots). And second, Blade Runner is a cult property at best. The original is a beloved film but it's not mainstream like a Star Wars or an Alien. This could be a one-and-done film where all the fans show up opening weekend before word-of-mouth sets in even though critics that attended early screenings are liking it (but then again, critics liked Alien: Covenant for some reason).

Box Office Potential: early tracking has been in the $40 million range, which seems about right for an event film like this one. However, the question is "will it hold"? I'm going to say no. $41 million opening weekend, $95 million finish.

Ride It, My "Pony"

The 1980's retro movement began quietly in the late 1990/early 2000's (I’d say February 13th, 1998 was its birth date) and much like a malignant tumor, it grew and grew and now in 2017, the thing just refuses to die, no matter how much chemo you put it through. But during all this, perhaps the most puzzling fandom ever, managed to be born through a TV show on a network that no longer exists.

On October 10th, 2010, The Hub (now Discovery Family, after Discovery acquired part of Hasbro’s share in 2014) premiered My Little Pony: Friendship is Magic, a revival of the My Little Pony toyline and TV series headed by animation writer Lauren Faust. The original intent was to create a TV show aimed towards young girls with a positive influence compared to other shows on rival networks like Disney or Nickelodeon. However, something really bizarre happened. The show managed to draw a completely different audience, much of it neither young nor female. This group came to be known as Bronies. And television, as well as the Internet and people in general, was never the same.

So of course, Hasbro, flush with cash from this new demographic as well as the intended audience, got the golden idea to do a movie. And this is where we talk about My Little Pony: The Movie (Lionsgate), opening in 2,500 theatres.

The plot, which had been a secret for some time, is set in the same universe as Friendship is Magic and focuses on a threat to the kingdom of Equestria and the ponies, led by Twilight Sparkle, having to go on a journey to save the land. In the process, they meet many new characters. Not very original but the fans won't care. Voice talent includes many actors from the show (led by Tara Strong) as well as Sia, Emily Blunt, Michael Pena, Liev Schreiber, Taye Diggs, Zoe Saldana, Kristin Chenoweth, and Uzo Aduba.

Tracking doesn't seem to know what to think about this one. Lionsgate is mostly unproven with animation (I still hold a little grudge over how Shaun the Sheep Movie was handled) and the marketing hasn't been up to snuff but Hasbro knows the audience for this film. I know the Bronies will love it though, seeing how it’s an episode in feature-length and 2.39 anamorphic.

Box Office Potential: this is perhaps the biggest wild card of the fall season. It could open to $10 million or $50 million. At one point, I was thinking it could hit $55-60 million opening weekend. Since I’m quite unsure of the numbers (based on the low count and if those Bronies will show), I’m not going to say a number. All I’ll say is that I think it takes second for the weekend. If I get this one wrong, I’ll dislike those weirdos even more. They make Joss Whedon’s fans seem sane.

At the "Mountain" of Madness

From sequels to adaptations of cartoons to adaptations of best-selling novels, we get to the third wide release of the weekend, The Mountain Between Us (Fox), opening in 2,900 theatres. Based on Charles Martin's 2011 novel, the film stars Idris Elba and Kate Winslet as two people who board a charter plane after their flight gets delayed due to a snowstorm. The plane crashes midflight and the two must now survive in the mountains of Utah with only each other to depend on. Dermot Mulroney and Beau Bridges co-star.

This is a project that's spent some years in development with actors such as Michael Fassbender, Margot Robbie, Charlie Hunnam, and Rosamund Pike all showing interest. The film also seems to have had some post-production troubles as scenes were still being filmed in July (the final cut only runs 104 minutes). But the survival genre has usually been an interesting one and it seems as if Fox moved up the film in hopes of drawing comparisons to 2013's Gravity.

Early critical word has been mixed, with some suggesting that the film is a little too slight despite strong performances from Elba and Winslet. However, audience reception at Toronto was reportedly positive and that might be enough to help a film like this one, even with it being in a tough month filled with adult-aimed fare.

Box Office Potential: the best compare would seem to be 2015’s Everest but that was a total downer of a film that died after its limited debut. The mixed reviews also hamper its potential but the star power and possibility of strong word-of-mouth should help. $12 million opening, $35 million finish.

Arthouse Class 101

This week, there will be four limited releases to cover.

Dina (The Orchard) - this documentary won the Grand Jury Prize at Sundance and compared to other documentaries we've seen or covered this year, this is a human interest story not often seen on the big screen. The story focuses on Dina Buno, a suburban Philadelphia woman in her late 40's who invites her fiancee, a Wal-Mart greeter, to move in with her. In the process, the two soon begin to realize that their differences and difficulties in finding intimacy, mostly caused by Dina's own ideas of the world, cause roadblocks in their relationship.

This might seem like the plot of many recent romantic comedies that have played at your local independent theatres but what makes this one interesting is that it's all real. This documentary takes us under a microscope to focus on people who might seem distant and small compared to the big people and ideas we usually see in documentaries but deep down inside, we actually know these people. Early critical word has been positive and despite the general failure of most documentaries this year, the unique premise and avoidance of current events or political/social subjects could allow this one to do well.

I'd expect about 6-9 PTA points. The film shouldn't be this under the radar in our game.

The Florida Project (A24) - the title might sound like some Blair Witch/Paranormal Activity knock-off but the new film from Sean Baker (Starlet, Tangerine) is actually a coming-of-age drama in the vein of Boyhood and Beasts of the Southern Wild focused on a six-year-old living with her single mother in a motel in Kissimmee, Florida (a suburb of Orlando). The premise is focused on the child's experiences contrasting with the dark world of the residents of the motel. Not surprisingly, this is rated R. Baker's leads are mainly newcomers, with Willem Dafoe being the biggest name.

Early word has been excellent with much praise showered on the cast and Baker's direction. Though it's got the A24 machine handling the film, it does somewhat have an uphill battle once it expands wider. Baker is not a mainstream director and the clashing of a child protagonist and the R rating could make it a hard film to market. In addition, there's the title. Yes, I get that it's a reference to Disney World but it's such a vague title that could bring other things to mind.

Bad title or not, the film should be worth between 12-15 PTA points, a few million, and a Best Supporting Actor Oscar nomination for Dafoe (has he ever been nominated for a statue?).

Chavela (Music Box, opening Wednesday) - this is a documentary focusing on the late artist Chavela Vargas, consisting of interviews filmed in 1992 and her life's work. I really don't have much else to say about this one other than Dina is probably a better pick if you want a low-priced documentary on your slate. 1-2 points at best.

Walking Out (IFC, opening Wednesday) - this Montana-set drama might sound like fellow Sundance entry Wind River at first but a wintry setting and Sundance pedigree is really all this seems to have in common with this drama starring Matt Bomer and Bill Pullman. The film focuses on a hunting trip between father and son and the events leading up to an incident that turns their strained relationship into a fight for survival.

Early reviews have been glowing while the IMDb is nothing too special (but you can't really take IMDb's word on these films), however the Wednesday opening and lack of push on IFC's behalf make this a difficult sell in the game. It may be lucky to get 1-2 points.

Other notables not in the game but have some appeal include Better Watch Out (Well Go), Brawl in Cell Block 99 (Image), Earth: One Amazing Day (BBC America), Faces Places (Cohen), and Una (Eamonn). Four of these have green ratings on Metacritic (Faces Places, the new film from Agnes Varda, has a 94) while Earth: One Amazing Day is the sequel to the 2007 film that kicked off the Disneynature line. Don’t know why Disney passed on this one.

Box Office: Blade Runner 2049, My Little Pony, The Mountain Between Us, Bad Meat, Good Cheese
PTA: The Florida Project, Dina, Blade Runner 2049, Logjammin’, Karl Hungus?

Next Week: we will have four wide offerings, The Foreigner (STX), Happy Death Day (Universal), Marshall (Open Road), and Professor Marston & the Wonder Women (Annapurna), and two limited releases, Breathe (Bleecker Street) and Goodbye Christopher Robin (Fox Searchlight). You know it's going to be swell and they'll want to win all the money, they'll want to win all the money.

Box Office Memories:

2007: The Game Plan stayed in first place with a $16.6 million weekend (dropping 28%) while three openers fell with a resounding thud. The biggest of those, The Heartbreak Kid, took second with a disappointing $14 million weekend while the failed the franchise starter The Seeker: The Dark is Rising took fifth with $3.7 million. The third opener, Feel the Noise, took in $3.2 million in a third of the theatres The Seeker opened in. Third place was The Kingdom with $9.7 million (shedding 43% from the previous weekend) while Resident Evil: Extinction was fourth with $4.5 million.

On the PTA front, Warner Bros. had the top two with Michael Clayton ($47,994 per theatre) and Blade Runner: The Final Cut ($44,575 per theatre). The Darjeeling Limited ($29,559) and Lust, Caution ($21,341) also had excellent numbers in an expansion to additional markets.

1997: The weekend winner was Kiss the Girls, the first Alex Cross adaptation (of three so far), with $13.2 million. Second was holdover Soul Food with $8.4 million (losing only 25% from its previous weekend's total) while last week's weekend, The Peacemaker, fell to third with $8.2 million, dropping 34% (fun fact: this was the first film released by DreamWorks). In & Out took fourth with $7.7 million while fifth was The Edge with $5 million (42% second weekend drop). The other wide openers, U-Turn and The Matchmaker, died with $2.7 million and $1.4 million, respectively.

On the limited scene, The Ice Storm trounced the competition with a $33,458 number in its second weekend in three theatres. The biggest opener was the Henry James adaptation Washington Square with $14,352 in a single theatre.

1987: Fatal Attraction stayed in first for the fourth weekend in a row on this Columbus Day/Canadian Thanksgiving weekend, making $10.6 million. Second was Like Father, Like Son with $6.1 million (dropping 15% from the previous weekend, possibly more if three-day numbers were available). The Princess Bride expanded wide and took third with $4.5 million. Fourth and fifth were openers, Someone to Watch Over Me with $2.9 million and Surrender with $2.3 million. The week's other wide opener was Three O'Clock High, which lost its duel with $1.5 million.

Meanwhile, the PTA game had Fatal Attraction and The Princess Bride 1-2 with the biggest newcomer being Baby Boom, making $6,961 per theatre in a 195 theatre opening. Counting the numbers from its Wednesday opening, the film made $8,251 per theatre. In addition, the film managed to take tenth place.
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Re: Down the Rabbit Hole with Buscemi: October 6th-9th

Postby numbersix » October 3rd, 2017, 4:05 am

C'mon Boosch, put your money where your mouth is! Give us a figure for My Little Pony. What's the point doing a column unless you're assessing whether it's worth picking up or not in the game?

That's a long runtime for Blade Runner 2049. Considering the reviews have said the story isn't great, I'm surprised it's that long. Still, it's the only film people have been talking about since It, so it's going to open well, and there isn't a lot of exciting stuff going on. It reminds me of the Martian in that sense. I think it'll open in the early 40s but easily cross $100m.

Not particularly stoked about The Mountain Between Us either. Seems so MOR that it might get lost in the mix.

Agree on PTA, though. The Florida Project and Dina should do well.

My Predictions
1. Blade Runner 2049 - $44m
2. The Mountain Between Us - $10m
3. It - $8.5m
4. Kingsman 2 - $8m
5. My Little Pony - $8m

PTA: The Florida Project, Blade Runner, Dina, Walking Out, The Mountain Between Us
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Re: Down the Rabbit Hole with Buscemi: October 6th-9th

Postby Buscemi2 » October 3rd, 2017, 4:32 am

As I said, My Little Pony could do anywhere between $10 million and $50 million. Ninjago's been a flop so the family market is wide open for the next six weeks while those creepers are going to think it's the best thing they've ever seen. However, marketing hasn't been great and the two main audiences could cancel each other out (families may avoid it out of the belief that they'll be sharing a theatre with pedophilies, Bronies may avoid it in theatres due to their irrational hatred of women who aren't ponies).

Despite the low(ish) count, I'm going to say between $17-20 million. Remember that a lot of Americans and Canadians will get Monday off (Columbus Day/Canadian Thanksgiving).
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Re: Down the Rabbit Hole with Buscemi: October 6th-9th

Postby Shrykespeare » October 3rd, 2017, 12:06 pm

Buscemi2 wrote: (families may avoid it out of the belief that they'll be sharing a theatre with pedophilies, Bronies may avoid it in theatres due to their irrational hatred of women who aren't ponies).


Wow. That's one of the most outlandish counter-arguments I think I've ever heard. Is this really an issue with parents? And why would it be any different for MLP than for any other movie aimed at kids?
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Re: Down the Rabbit Hole with Buscemi: October 6th-9th

Postby transformers2 » October 3rd, 2017, 12:08 pm

I would be stunned if more than 5-10% of parents in the world were even aware of the Brony movement. Even if they are, I highly doubt that would prevent them from bringing their kids to see MLP in the theater.
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Re: Down the Rabbit Hole with Buscemi: October 6th-9th

Postby Buscemi2 » October 3rd, 2017, 12:12 pm

Bronies are creepy people. The fandom has also been known for its misogyny (the Brony Club at my university was quite infamous for its abuse towards women) and defending bestiality. It's quite mainstream on the Internet (you always forget how widespread the Internet is).

Parents may or may not be aware of some of their actions. Sure, there are creepers that love other animated properties (a lot of them have YouTube channels), but not like this one.
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Re: Down the Rabbit Hole with Buscemi: October 6th-9th

Postby undeadmonkey » October 3rd, 2017, 1:39 pm

I think Blade Runner will open with $55M. Hoping it has great legs to boot as well. The Martian was 2 and a half hours too and most reviews have been positive.

I don't see any appeal for My Little Pony and i have never heard of these bronies before boosch, there's no way it opens with more than $10M much less $50M.

Also, the stillborn reference is uncalled for, insensitive and not even accurate
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Re: Down the Rabbit Hole with Buscemi: October 6th-9th

Postby Shrykespeare » October 3rd, 2017, 11:45 pm

Celebrity Milestone Birthdays:

Denis Villeneuve turned 50 on 10/3 (days before his latest film debuts ... great timing)
Liev Schreiber turns 50 on 10/4 (has anyone seen Ray Donovan? Would you recommend it?)
Guy Pearce turns 50 on 10/5 (haven't seen him in anything since Iron Man 3... I kind of miss him)
Bella Thorne turns 20 on 10/8 (Boosh's favorite actress!!!!)
Happy 40th birthday James Franco! (4/19/18)
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Re: Down the Rabbit Hole with Buscemi: October 6th-9th

Postby Shrykespeare » October 4th, 2017, 7:12 pm

And to answer your question, Boosh, Willem Dafoe has been nominated for statues before. He got Best Supporting Actor noms in Platoon (1997) and Shadow of the Vampire (2001). For the latter, he also got a Golden Globe nom for BSA as well as WINNING a Saturn Award.

Has anyone seen this film? Shadow of the Vampire, I mean.
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Re: Down the Rabbit Hole with Buscemi: October 6th-9th

Postby numbersix » October 5th, 2017, 5:04 am

Yep, I saw it in the cinema on its original run. It's a odd but enjoyable take on Nosferatu
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Re: Down the Rabbit Hole with Buscemi: October 6th-9th

Postby Shrykespeare » October 5th, 2017, 11:32 pm

Theater counts:

Blade Runner 2049 - 4,058
The Mountain Between Us - 3,088
My Little Pony - 2,528
The Florida Project - 4
Walking Out - 2

Victoria & Abdul expands to 732



Next week:

Happy Death Day - 3,000
The Foreigner - 2,300+
Marshall - 800
Goodbye Christopher Robin - 8
Breathe - 4
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Re: Down the Rabbit Hole with Buscemi: October 6th-9th

Postby Shrykespeare » October 7th, 2017, 4:40 pm

Friday Estimates

Blade Runner 2049, $12.7M
The Mountain Between Us, $3.5M
My Little Pony, $3M
It, $2.7M
American Made, $2.3M
Kingsman, $2.3M
LEGO Ninjago, $1.6M
Victoria and Abdul, $1.2M
Flatliners, $1.1M



Weekend Projections:

Blade Runner, $28.5M
My Little Pony, $10M
Mountain Between Us, $9.7M
It, $9.5M
American Made, $8.2M
KIngsman, $8M
LEGO Ninjago, $6.6M
Victoria and Abdul, $4.3M
Flatliners, $3.3M
Battle of the Sexes, $2.3M
American Assassin, $1.3M


Dammit. I knew BR2049 was overhyped. Second-guessed myself. Now I wish I hadn't put it on most of my slates. Hopefully it'll still get a ton of T5 points.



PTA:

Blade Runner 2049, $7K
Victoria & Abdul, $6K
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Re: Down the Rabbit Hole with Buscemi: October 6th-9th

Postby Shrykespeare » October 8th, 2017, 1:05 pm

Weekend Estimates

Top 10:
5 points - Blade Runner 2049, $31.5M
4 points - The Mountain Between Us, $10.1M
3 points - It, $9.7M
2 points - My Little Pony, $8.8M (sorry, Boosh)
1 point - Kingsman: The Golden Circle, $8.1M
American made, $8.1M
The LEGO Ninjago Movie, $6.7M
Victoria and Abdul, $4.1M
Flatliners, $3.8M
Battle of the Sexes, $2.4M



PTA:
5 points - The Florida Project
4 points - Dina
3 points - Blade Runner 2049
2 points - Victoria and Abdul
1 point - Chavela
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Re: Down the Rabbit Hole with Buscemi: October 6th-9th

Postby numbersix » October 8th, 2017, 2:57 pm

Wow, this was a weekend of mistaken expectations.

Boosch, well done for having one of the lowest predictions on Blade Runner around, and even that was too high. Guess we all lost track of it being a cult film with a long run time. Arrival will still be Villeneuve's most successful film in the US

However, MY Little Pony... was the the most inaccurate prediction by Deadline after looking at Friday's numbers? From 11m down to 8.8m,
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Re: Down the Rabbit Hole with Buscemi: October 6th-9th

Postby Shrykespeare » October 9th, 2017, 6:02 pm

Weekend Actuals

Top 10:
5 points - Blade Runner 2049, $32.8M (5)
4 points - The Mountain Between Us, $10.6M (4)
3 points - It, $10.0M (21)
2 points - My Little Pony: The Movie, $8.9M (2)
1 point - Kingsman: The Golden Circle, $8.7M (11)
American Made, $8.5M
The LEGO Ninjago Movie, $7.0M
Victoria and Abdul, $4.2M
Flatliners, $4.0M
Battle of the Sexes, $2.7M




PTA:
5 points - The Florida Project, $39,388 (5)
4 points - Blade Runner 2049, $8,071 (4)
3 points - Dina, $6,015 (3)
2 points - Victoria and Abdul, $5,699 (12)
1 point - Mark Felt: The Man Who Brought Down the White House, $3,526 (4)

Walking Out - $2,731 (no one chose this, so I will remove it from the list)
Chavela - $510 (no one chose this either, so I will remove it as well)
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