Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 9/29

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Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 9/29

Post by transformers2 »

Pennywise's reign of terror on the box office was stopped by some suave, foul-mouthed British spies.

Kingsman: The Golden Circle continued September's BO turnaround with an impressive $39 mil debut this past weekend. Despite performing in-line with its pre-release projections and posting a slightly higher opening figure than the first installment ($39.0 compared to the original's $36.2 mil debut in February 2015), the success of The Golden Circle will be measured by how well it holds up in a crowded marketplace with several male-aimed action/sci-fi flicks (American Made, Blade Runner 2049, The Foreigner) set for release over the next few weeks.

While it fell from the top spot, It continued to perform well, securing just under $27.8 mil (a drop of 50%) in its 3rd weekend of release. The film has grossed a genre-record $266 mil to-date and barring some kind of sudden drop-off, it looks like its going to continue to play well throughout October.

The most shocking development of this late September weekend was the underwhelming performance of The Lego Ninjago Movie. Despite entering a barren animated marketplace (The Emoji Movie, which came out on July 28th, was the last high-profile animated release), Ninjago only mustered $20.1 mil in its first 3 days of release, proving that the Lego brand isn't infallible and that family audiences apparently weren't really clamoring for something new to see. With next week's My Little Pony looking like a non-starter as well, Hollywood might not have produce another animated hit until Pixar's Coco hits theaters at Thanksgiving.

Wide Releases:
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After enjoying a solid amount of critical and commercial success with 2014's sci-fi thriller Edge of Tomorrow, Tom Cruise and director Doug Liman decided to re-team for American Made (Universal). Unlike their previous blockbuster collaboration that centered around intergalactic warfare and time loops, American Made is a modestly-budgeted biopic centered around Barry Seal (Cruise), a commercial airline pilot that is recruited by an opportunistic CIA agent (Domhnall Gleeson) to smuggle various forms of contraband (guns, drugs, money) into South America for good ol' Uncle Sam. At first this unique arrangement is great for Seal's quality of life and bank account, but eventually Johnny Law and the drug cartels he's been working with end up disrupting his twisted pursuit of the American Dream.

When you breakdown American Made's pedigree, it seems like a surefire hit. The reviews have been very good (89% on RT), the trailer does a good job of selling its "regular guy gets sucked into a life of crime" premise and even with the domestic failure of The Mummy in June, Cruise is still one of the most bankable stars on the planet. However, there is an undeniable sense of familiarity present in its rise-and-fall crime story and I'm sure some people will refuse to see it after the story of the stunt pilot dying in a crash on-set resurfaced on America's top fake news outlets last week after his family filed a lawsuit against Universal and Liman. I'm expecting this to contend for the #1 spot this weekend with an opening between $16-$21 mil then proceed to pick up 8-10 Top 5 points, 2-3 PTA points, an IMDB score of 7.2 and gross around $50-60 mil over the course of its run. Its moderate price tag ($14 or $15 in ULT/$11 or $14 in BO) makes it an intriguing low-risk/high-reward option, but I don't think that it is an essential pickup in either format(particularly in SEP-NOV leagues).


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Hollywood never fails to confuse with me what sequels they greenlight. The latest edition of this magical phenomenon is Flatliners (Sony/Columbia), a follow-up to the 1990 sci-fi/horror flick that did solid business in 1990 ($115.5 mil domestic when adjusted for inflation), but is largely unknown to anyone under the age of 30.

An impressive collection of character actors (Ellen Page, Diego Luna, Nina Dobrev, Kiersey Clemons, James Norton) were tasked with playing this generation's band of curious (and not-so-bright) medical students who develop a sick obsession with inflicting near-death experiences on themselves. Each time a member of the group stops their heart and is subsequently revived, they return to the world with abilities they didn't previously possess. The fun of speaking new languages and becoming a master pianist goes away abruptly when ghosts from their past start haunting them in the present. I'm sure these thrill-seeking knuckleheads will eventually track down Kiefer Sutherland, who reprises his role from the original, to discuss the dangers of flatlining after a couple of their colleagues have already died under mysterious circumstances. I don't know about you guys, but the prospect of hearing Jack Bauer give Juno and the mannequin from Rogue One a blueprint on how to successfully tune out the visceral hallucinations they've been seeing since they crossed back into the land of the living fills me with glee.

It's unprecedented box office run has completely overshadowed every other horror release this month and even though Flatliners boasts a teen-friendly PG-13 rating and a solid 2,200 theater count, I don't expect it to buck the trend. The ad campaign has been pretty limited for a horror flick that has major-studio marketing money behind it and no one in this cast (with the possible expectation of Dobrev) is going to draw teens to the theater. The fact that the review embargo hasn't been lifted less than 48 hours before its release is also a discouraging sign. While I don't expect Flatliners to be a hit, I do think it can beat its current, high single-digit projections. I'm expecting an OW around $11 mil, 1 Top 5 point, 0 PTA, an IMDb score around 6.2 and a final haul of around $25 mil. Boasting a price tag in the $9-12 range in both formats, Flatliners has virtually zero upside in our game and can be skipped without hesitation.


Limited Releases:
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I'm not going to lie: I had zero idea what Super Dark Times (The Orchard) was about before I sat down to write the rough draft of this piece a few hours ago. The acclaimed debut from director Kevin Phillips focuses on a pair of teenage best friends (Owen Phillips and Charlie Tahan) who suddenly grow apart in the aftermath of a tragic event in their personal lives. With its good reviews (87% on RT) and a vague premise centered around the loss of childhood innocence that seems like its tailor-made to connect with the arthouse crowd, Super Dark Times appears to be in-line to take the PTA crown this weekend and could pick up an additional point or 2 in the coming weeks. Even with the possibility of a quick-drop off once the limited release titans of October start hitting the marketplace next week, Super Dark Times is still a solid pickup for a measly $2 in ULT.


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Mark Felt: The Man Who Brought Down The White House (Sony Classics) seems like an awards-darling in the making. As its very concise title indicates, this film tells the story of the FBI whistleblower known as Deep Throat who exposed the Watergate wire-tapping scandal that resulted in the resignation of president Richard Nixon in August of 1974. In addition to its interesting story about one of the most important figures in recent American history, the film also boasts an impressive ensemble cast headlined by the likes of Liam Nesson, Diane Lane, Maika Monroe and Tony Goldwyn. Then why am I down on Mark Felt? 4 words: writer/director Peter Landesman. Landesman's 1st entry into the historical drama genre (2013's Parkland) was met with complete indifference and based on the mixed reaction following Mark Felt's premiere at the Toronto Film Festival (44 % on RT and current 6.4 rating on IMDB) earlier this month, this film appear set to suffer a similar fate. The weak limited marketplace gives Mark Felt a decent shot of scoring 2 or 3 PTA points this weekend, but I expect it to fade as soon as it expands next week. With so many potential PTA heavy-hitters set to hit theaters over the next 2 months, there's absolutely no reason to put Mark Felt on your slate.


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Even as someone who has never closely followed surfing, I know who Laird Hamilton is. However, his aptly-titled, biographical documentary Take Every Wave: The Life of Laird Hamilton(IFC/Sundance Selects) is unlikely to make a splash on the specialty market. Surfing is an incredibly niche sport and even though it's only playing at 1 theater this weekend, I'd be pretty surprised if it managed a top-5 PTA finish for the weekend. Skip it.


Weekend Projections:
1/2. American Made/Kingsman $18.5 mil
3.It $15 mil
4.Ninjago $11.5 mil
5.Flatliners $11 mil

--Battle of the Sexes (wide expansion) $4.5 mil

PTA: Super Dark Times, Victoria & Abdul, Mark Felt, American Made, Kingsman
BRING BRENDAN FRASER BACK TO THE BIG SCREEN DAMN IT
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 9/29

Post by Buscemi2 »

Flatliners is basically getting dumped by Sony. An opening weekend in the $5 million range wouldn't be surprising.

As for PTA, I don't think Super Dark Times will do that well. It seems more like a film that was picked up for post-theatrical possibilities with box office as an afterthought.
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 9/29

Post by Ron Burgundy »

Yeah Flatliners is looking like a sure-fire bomb.

I think American Made wont open higher than 16M.

And i havent even heard of Super Dark Times, i think Battle of the Sexes will do decent PTA numbers, 1 point at the very least
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 9/29

Post by Buscemi2 »

Battle of the Sexes expands to 1,100 theatres (but not here, I'm guessing the local Drafthouse was going to book it on exclusive and then the sexual harassment allegations came out, Fox pulled Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri from Fantastic Fest due to a previous allegation towards the Drafthouse umbrella). $4-5 million is feasible, seeing how it's not being expanded like Detroit was. (Edit: turns out Drafthouse theatres will still get it, it will arrive a week later here)

Meanwhile, I'm kind of disappointed Lucky's not in the game. With it being Harry Dean Stanton's final film, it could bring in a decent PTA.
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 9/29

Post by numbersix »

What a weak field this weekend. American Made is the only film with any real potential, and even still I'm not sure if it will beat Kingsman 2. Flatliners will flatline

PTA films all look terrible. Wow, I sound like boosch ;)

Weekend Projections:
1. Kingsman 2 $17 mil
2. American Made $16 mil
3.It $15 mil
4.Ninjago $11 mil
5.Flatliners $8 mil



PTA: Victoria and Abdul, Mark Felt, American Made, Super Dark Times, Battles of the Sexes

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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 9/29

Post by Buscemi2 »

I think American Made having already been released in Europe and Australia (it's been out since last month) may dilute its take. In addition, too many 18-35 male-aimed movies in the marketplace (this, along with the bloated 163 minute run time, could also hurt Blade Runner 2049 despite the positive early word*).

* - However, I do believe this is simply with the sci-fi fanboys and the "I like almost every sequel" crowd due to the review embargo until the 5th. Alien: Covenant was supposedly good (I'm still trying to figure out that Metacritic score) and then we saw it.
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 9/29

Post by Buscemi2 »

From FilmJerk's listings, Super Dark Times is getting 21 theatres while Take Every Wave will play in a single theatre in Los Angeles. This makes Take Every Wave a much stronger contender this weekend than before.
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 9/29

Post by Chienfantome »

Buscemi2 wrote:I think American Made having already been released in Europe and Australia (it's been out since last month) may dilute its take.
I don't know what American Made will make this weekend, but the fact it was released 2 weeks ago in Europe doesn't mean a thing.
Taken has been released in Europe and almost everywhere months before it was released in the US back then, and it didn't prevent it from making shitloads of money. So 2 weeks in nothing.
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 9/29

Post by Buscemi2 »

But Taken had an insane amount of pre-release hype from its international release. This hasn't.
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 9/29

Post by Shrykespeare »

I have seen exactly zero commericals for Flatliners. I've seen a butt-ton for American Made.


American Made - 3,024
Flatliners - 2,552
Super Dark Times - 21
Mark Felt - 5
Take Every Wave - 1

Battle of the Sexes - 1,213
Stronger - 645



Next week:

Blade Runner 2049 - 3,900+
The Mountain Between Us - 2,900
My Little Pony - 2,500
Victoria and Abdul - 750 (expansion)




Celebrity birthdays:

Clea DuVall turned 40 on 9/25 (currently starring in Veep)
Meat Loaf turned 70 on 9/27 (and he still's wont do THAT)
Mira Sorvino turned 50 on 9/28 (stuck in direct-to-video and limited release films for ten years now ... WTF?)
Hillary Duff turned 30 on 9/28 (Lizzie McGuire is 30?? Fuck I'm old...)
Fran Drescher turns 60 on 9/30 (her film career peaked in UHF)
Happy 60th birthday Jet Li! (4/26/23)

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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 9/29

Post by Buscemi2 »

I actually saw The Beautician and the Beast in the theatre.

And Sorvino fell under the Best Supporting Actor/Actress curse, in which you win an Oscar but the industry has no idea if to make you a lead or keep you in supporting roles. I do like Mimic and The Replacement Killers though and she was pretty good in her one-shot on Lady Dynamite (where she plays three different characters).
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 9/29

Post by transformers2 »

Didn't realize Super Dark Times was opening in 20+ theaters. Guess my PTA picks are going to be even more inaccurate than usual :lol:
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 9/29

Post by Shrykespeare »

I'm not sure what I find more shocking ... American Made's 87% score on RT, or Flatliners 0%. Yes, that's right, ZERO percent. Even Friend Request had 17%.
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 9/29

Post by Buscemi2 »

Flatliners wasn't screened to critics, which almost never happens nowadays. It was bound to get hated on. Looks like Oplev's going to end up staying in TV for a while.

American Made's rating doesn't surprise me. Most of the RT clientele seems to like those hacky Doug Liman films (he's like the action version of Jonathan Levine, makes the blandest movies possible but gets a new one nearly every year based on past successes).
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 9/29

Post by Shrykespeare »

Friday Estimates

American Made, $6.1M
It, $4.9M
Kingsman, $4.8M
Lego Ninjago, 2.7M
Flatliners, $2.1M
Battle of the Sexes, $1.1M
Happy 60th birthday Jet Li! (4/26/23)

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