Look! An Undead Movie Column: New Releases of 9/15/17

Mr. Columnist himself presents weekly analysis and tips.

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undeadmonkey
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Look! An Undead Movie Column: New Releases of 9/15/17

Post by undeadmonkey »

IT dominated and made the box office float again.... Reese Witherspoon couldn't figure out how to counter-program successfully and Rebel tried and blah blah blah.....

American Assassin is trying too hard to look cool, which means it's terrible. while seeing advertisement for the movie everywhere, It'll have trouble getting past $10M. Partly because IT is sucking out all the air ( to fill his balloons) at the box office, but mostly because it'll suck donkey balls.

Storyline
Mitch Rapp (O'Brien), 23, lost his parents to a tragic car accident at the age of 14, as well as his girlfriend to a terrorist attack just as they were engaged. Seeking revenge, he is enlisted by CIA Deputy Director Irene Kennedy (Lathan) as a black ops recruit. Kennedy then assigns Cold War veteran Stan Hurley (Keaton) to train Mitch. Together they will later on investigate a wave of apparently random attacks on military and civilian targets. The discovery of a pattern in the violence leads them to a joint mission with a lethal Turkish agent, Annika (Negar), to stop a mysterious operative, nicknamed "Ghost" (Kitsch), intent on starting a world war in the Middle East.

I’ll predict a $10M OW and $25M overall.

Image

mother! looks insane, said to be loosely based on Rosemary's Baby, but i don't really see the connection. guess you have to watch the movie to find out. The reviews have been wild, some loving, some hating it. Not that that is unusual for Aronofsky. Again though, It seems to have no chance to breakout against IT. Maybe everyone is hoping for long legs or maybe Lawrence and Aronofsky need to release a sex tape to try to steal some headlines away from IT. You can't tell me Darren hasn't directed one of those. I'll wait for the reviews before i decide to watch it...

Storyline
A young woman's (Jennifer Lawrence) tranquil life with her husband (Javier Bardem) at their remote country home is challenged by an unnamed couple (Ed Harris and Michelle Pfeiffer) who arrive and lodge with them.


I predict an opening of $9M with a total of $30M.

Image


Hello. What? that's the wrong poster? oh yes you're so right, i'm sorry.

Here it is

Image


Really can't get a read on Brad's Status or Because of Gracia, both will have middling IMDb scores, and might garner a PTA or 2 if they're lucky. save your money for some weed.

My predictions for the weekend of September 15 - 17, 2017:


1. IT $48M
2. American Assassin $10M
3. mother! $9M
4. Home Again $5M
5. The Hitmans Bodyguard $2M (how many top5 is that now?)

PTA:
5. IT
4. mother!
3. Dolores
2. American Assassin
1. Because of Gracia


Next week we have 2 films vying for glory and money and power, The Last Kingsman 2 and Ninjango Narruto, wait whats it called? Also a movie called Friend Request, which about 5 years too late, nowadays people just follow people. Also Battle of the Sexes wants to make a splash...


The Octopus always finds his nemesis so distracting. it sure does doesn't it..... sorry about losing my post again. I'll do better again next time, I promise, i just really didn't want to find all those quotes again. it takes forever, plus no one is guessing... should i keep the quotes for next time?
Last edited by undeadmonkey on September 14th, 2017, 3:31 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Buscemi2
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Re: Look! An Undead Movie Column: New Releases of 9/15/17

Post by Buscemi2 »

mother!'s going to have terrible word of mouth. There's already a big divide between critics and audiences and the marketing's far too vague (yes, I get that Aronofsky's being abstract but trailers are marketing tools first and foremost).

A Cinemascore in the D range wouldn't surprise me.
It's like what Lenin said...I am the walrus.

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undeadmonkey
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Re: Look! An Undead Movie Column: New Releases of 9/15/17

Post by undeadmonkey »

why is the website taking my images down.....

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Re: Look! An Undead Movie Column: New Releases of 9/15/17

Post by Shrykespeare »

Official Theater Counts

American Assassin - 3,154
mother! - 2,368
Brad's Status - 4



Next week:

Ninjago - 3,900+
Kingsman - 3,900
Friend Request - 3,000 (have seen zero commercials for this)
Victoria and Abdul - 4




Celebrity birthdays:

Harry Connick Jr. turned 50 on 9/11 (I remember him as a serial killer in Copycat - didn't even know he sang at the time)
Chris "Ludacris" Bridges turned 40 on 9/11 (HIM I did know was a singer ... um, rapper)
Elizabeth Henstridge turned 30 on 9/11 (love her on Agents of SHIELD... she's one of the best things about that show)
Hans Zimmer turned 60 on 9/12 (how many movies has he scored?)
Louis C.K. turned 50 on 9/12 (can't say I really care for him)
Tom Hardy turns 40 on 9/15 (anyone else jonesing for the next Mad Max movie??)
Happy 60th birthday Jet Li! (4/26/23)

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Buscemi2
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Re: Look! An Undead Movie Column: New Releases of 9/15/17

Post by Buscemi2 »

All I've seen for Friend Request is a poster and a big standee (possibly bigger than the one for 47 Meters Down).

It might be cheaper to import a DVD or Blu-ray copy from Europe than to pay to watch it in a theatre (I know The Cinema Snob, about the only good show under the Channel Awesome umbrella, did for his Midnight Screenings series).

Meanwhile, I forgot to mention that I think Monkey has American Assassin wrong. The film is based on a popular series of novels (those Vince Flynn novels sell among the airport/supermarket crowd) and though the film's (older) audience tends to wait for the DVD, I think it's got about $45 million in it before it really makes its money in post-theatrical markets. Yes, the reviews haven't been good (and Michael Cuesta is one of the most boring filmmakers working today) but the target crowd doesn't read reviews.
It's like what Lenin said...I am the walrus.

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Walleye413
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Re: Look! An Undead Movie Column: New Releases of 9/15/17

Post by Walleye413 »

Hey UDM, good column, sorry the original got sucked up by the Movie Minions. And although I don't write in on the quotes I definitely try to guess them, so I'd say keep 'em. Just like Shryke's add to the Celebrity birthdays, I think they're clever.

As to your predictions, I think they're pretty spot on. I think American Assassin could have been bigger, but IT has killed any chance it had. It might find life at Redbox, but I think we have to wait until next weekend to see anything get any traction.

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numbersix
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Re: Look! An Undead Movie Column: New Releases of 9/15/17

Post by numbersix »

Love that Mother poster!

I vthink it willl play like The Witch - another divisive film that genre fans didn't like but arthouse audiences dug enough to make it hit $25m. With Bardem and JLaw in an aronofsky film, I think it'll get higher. Maybe $35m.

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Re: Look! An Undead Movie Column: New Releases of 9/15/17

Post by Buscemi2 »

I think The Witch benefitted from having no comparables at the same time (plus, that A24 faithful that will see anything they release). mother! runs right into It. I'm thinking it dies at $20 million (Paramount should have kept it in October and had Aronofsky cut a trailer that's not almost exclusively shots of his girlfriend). If it reminds me of any film, it's Killing Them Softly: another smallish film sold as a big wide release and it sharply divided critics and audiences.

American Assassin is not going for the same audience as It. I'd be surprised if the teenagers and methheads that flocked to It came to a film skewing older.
It's like what Lenin said...I am the walrus.

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transformers2
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Re: Look! An Undead Movie Column: New Releases of 9/15/17

Post by transformers2 »

mother! has gotten an insane marketing push over the past 2 weeks and Paramount's decision to play up the insanity factor in the ad's should up the interest level. I wouldn't be shocked if it ended up doing high teen's to low $20's this weekend. American Assassin is a similar crapshoot that has received a strong last minute marketing push here in the States. I can see it doing somewhere between $12 and $22 mil this weekend.

1.It $52 mil
2.American Assassin $17 mil
3.mother! $16 mil
4.Home Again $4.5 mil
5.The Hitman's Bodyguard $2 mil
BRING BRENDAN FRASER BACK TO THE BIG SCREEN DAMN IT
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Re: Look! An Undead Movie Column: New Releases of 9/15/17

Post by Buscemi2 »

I haven't seen any numbers since estimates were submitted around noon but I don't think mother!'s coming anywhere near the $12 million number that was thrown around.

It got an F Cinemascore, possibly the first to do so since Killing Them Softly five years ago.
It's like what Lenin said...I am the walrus.

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Re: Look! An Undead Movie Column: New Releases of 9/15/17

Post by Shrykespeare »

Friday Estimates

It, $19.2M
American Assassin, $5.8M
mother!, $3.1M
Home Again, $1.7M
The Hitman's Bodyguard, $1.0M


Weekend Projections:

It, $59M ($217M 10-day)
American Assassin, $15.2M
mother!, $7.5M
Home Again, $5.4M
The Hitman's Bodyguard, $3.5M
Wind River, $2.5M
Annabelle: Creation, $2.2M
Leap!, $2.1M
Spider-Man: Homecoming, $2.0M
Dunkirk, $1.3M


PTA:
Brad's Status, $22.5K
It, $14.4K
American Assassin, $4.8K
mother!, $3.1K
Happy 60th birthday Jet Li! (4/26/23)

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Re: Look! An Undead Movie Column: New Releases of 9/15/17

Post by Shrykespeare »

Weekend Estimates

Top 10:
5 points - It, $60M
4 points - American Assassin, $14.8M
3 points - mother!, $7.5M
2 points - Home Again, $5.3M
1 point - The Hitman's Bodyguard, $3.5M
Annabelle: Creation, $2.6M (will hit $100M on Monday)
Wind River, $2.6M
Leap!, $2.1M
Spider-Man: Homecoming, $1.9M
Dunkirk, $1.3M


PTA:
5 points - Brad's Status, $25K
4 points - It, $14.4K
3 points - Beach Rats, $4.7K
2 points - American Assassin, $4.7K
1 point - Dolores, $3.8K

No word on Because of Gracia (but no one picked it in anything anyway.)
Happy 60th birthday Jet Li! (4/26/23)

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undeadmonkey
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Re: Look! An Undead Movie Column: New Releases of 9/15/17

Post by undeadmonkey »

Did not expect IT to hold that well. guess i shouldn't be surprised at this point.... hey at least i was right about Home Again holding well

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Re: Look! An Undead Movie Column: New Releases of 9/15/17

Post by Shrykespeare »

[quote="Shrykespeare"]Weekend Estimates

Top 10:
5 points - It, $60.1M (10)
4 points - American Assassin, $14.8M (4)
3 points - mother!, $7.5M (3)
2 points - Home Again, $5.2M (6)
1 point - The Hitman's Bodyguard, $3.6M (19)
Wind River, $2.6M
Annabelle: Creation, $2.5M
Leap!, $2.2M
Spider-Man: Homecoming, $1.9M
Dunkirk, $1.3M


PTA:
5 points - Brad's Status, $22,480 (5)
4 points - It, $14,490 (9)
3 points - American Assassin, $4,707 (3)
2 points - Dolores, $3,852 (11)
1 point - mother!, $3,182 (1)

Because of Gracia, $1,630


Huh. Because of Gracia's current User Rating is 9.3. I guess everyone who rated it was actually in the movie.
Happy 60th birthday Jet Li! (4/26/23)

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