SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 4/9

[Shrykespeare]

It’s an uncharacteristically light week this week, and you guys know how much I like to run off at the, erm, keyboard, so I’m going to fill a small portion of the free space I’m going to have by informing all of you that something very special is going on under the “Music” section of the ReelSociety forums. You might be interested to know that eleven long-time Fantaversians (including myself) have embarked on a musical quest: to count down our 100 favorite songs of all time.

We started at #100 on April 1st, and I can already say it’s been very educational and extremely fun. One song per person, per day, which means that we will be posting our #1 songs in early July. Anyone reading this may join in the discussions, or even, if you are enterprising enough, come up with a countdown of your own and join the fun! Click on this link to see what’s been done so far:

viewforum.php?f=28

There are only three movies to talk about this week, opening Friday, April 9th, and of those three, only one is being given a wide release (in roughly 3,300 theaters). That movie is Date Night, a comedy/action romp from Fox featuring the stars of two hit TV shows, The Office and 30 Rock, in the leading roles.

Steve Carell and Tina Fey play Phil and Claire Foster, a married couple with two young children who have become uber-bored with their lives and their marriage. Though they try to spice up their lives with “date nights”, usually consisting of dinner and a movie, those too have become routine. As a change of pace, they plan a night out at a trendy Manhattan bistro, and before you know it, a case of mistaken identity has the couple on the run from mobsters, corrupt cops, and one severely pissed-off cabbie.

The supporting cast is just chock full of familiar names: Tariji P. Henson, William Fichtner, Kristen Wiig, Mark Ruffalo, James Franco, Mila Kunis, Leighton Meester, Common (in his first of three movies coming out in the April-June season), and last but not least, a hunky shirtless Mark Wahlberg. Date Night is directed by Shawn Levy, who is in his element, having helmed both Night at the Museum films as well as The Pink Panther. There are three reviews currently in the can at RT (all positive), and honestly, this looks like a pretty good, entertaining movie. Carell and Fey are at their career zeniths right now, and they both have decent followings. However, despite all this, I am unconvinced that it will add up to a hit movie.

There are a lot of action films this month (Clash of the Titans, Kick-Ass, The Losers), to say nothing of what’s coming in May. And given the amazing OW Titans had this past weekend, I don’t believe Date Night will quite have the mustard to take that #1 spot. It should be good enough for #2, however, with a first three-day total of about $24 million, en route to seven Top 5 points, three PTA, a Rating of 6.7 and roughly $57 million in total take. The way this title is priced ($17 Ultimate, $18 Box Office), I would probably pass on it.

Up next we have The Square, an Australian noir thriller from director Nash Edgerton. It stars David Roberts and Claire van der Bloom as Raymond and Carla, two lovers who live across the river from each other in a small Australian town. Both are already married (unhappily), but want nothing more than to run away with each other. However, to do so requires money, and their plan to raise it leans heavily towards the dangerous side.

While Ray is trying to do underhand deals with a local construction worker for the kick-backs, Carla is hoping to rip off her own husband (Anthony Hayes), a petty gangster. But in almost Cohen Brothers fashion, things take several twists and turns, each more disturbing than the last.

Scheduled to come out in only two locations on Friday, The Square has gotten awesome reviews (in fact, it has a 100% score on RT right now on 13/13 positives reviews), but only has a mid-range Rating (6.4 with just under 600 votes). For only $4, this could easily sneak in a swipe a few PTA points. Its lack of competition will certainly be a factor.

Last up, we have La Mission (The Mission), which has been shown at several film festivals prior to Friday’s release date (Sundance, San Francisco, Palm Springs). It is a drama starring Benjamin Bratt as Che Rivera, a reformed ex-con and recovering alcoholic trying to turn his life around for the sake of his son, who is now his only family since his wife’s death. But the level of respect he’s earned in the Mission district of San Francisco is tested to its fullest when he discovers that his son is, in fact, gay.

Directed by Peter Bratt (yes, he’s Benjamin’s brother), La Mission has a decent Rating (6.9, but with only 70+ votes). Again, it could be a good source of PTA points given its lack of competition, and for only $3 in Ultimate it might be worth a gamble. I won’t be gambling on it, however… nothing about this film really screams “pick me”, but hey, I’ve been notoriously bad a picking PTA winners since the start of the year.


My predictions for the weekend of April 2-4, 2010:

1. Clash of the Titans - $34 million
2. Date Night - $24 million
3. How to Train Your Dragon - $20 million
4. Why Did I Get Married Too - $14 million
5. The Last Song - $8 million

Well, that will do it for me for another week. Next week, I’ll be talking about the four movies scheduled to bow on April 16th, including: Kick-Ass, a violent, campy romp about the exploits of a motley band of superpower-less costumed heroes; Death at a Funeral, an African-Americanized version of the 2008 British film of the same title, this one starring Chris Rock, Martin Lawrence and Luke Wilson; as well as limited-release films The Joneses and Handsome Harry.

Later!

[Shrykespeare]

Wow, no comments so far? Must be losing my touch...

[Buscemi]

No, the weekend is just really boring. Nothing more than a True Lies clone and some niche appeal limited releases. I'll probably see The Runaways at the arthouse (my mother wants to see it, believe it or not).

[numbersix]

No comments is a sign that we pretty much agree with your predictions! Although I think Date Night, due to the short running time and lack of competition, will earn a little higher, maybe closer to 30mil.

[Brockster]

Dragon is holding steady...do you guys think it has any chance at matching MvA? If not, what will it's ceiling be?

[Buscemi]

How To Train Your Dragon is only $11 million behind Monsters vs. Aliens at the same point of release. It was $15 million behind at the end of their first weekends. Lilo and Stitch had a multiplier of over 4 when that came out in 2002 (grossing $145 million after a $35 million opening). How To Train Your Dragon would have to manage a multiplier of about 4.6 to pass Monsters vs. Aliens. It should pass Lilo and Stitch but it's unlikely to pass Monsters vs. Aliens.

[BanksIsDaFuture]

Date Night looks hilarious, and I'm watching it tonight. It should do anywhere to $25-$30M and end up around 90 or 100. Probably will perform a lot like Couples Retreat.

And Shryke, Black Waters of Echo Pond is opening nationwide this weekend too. It should flop tremendously though.

And Dragon should pass MvA. It has better WOM and it has 3D screens and IMAX screens pretty much to itself until Iron Man 2 and Shrek.

[Buscemi]

Actually Black Waters Of Echo Pond is in select markets. Some markets (such as Atlanta and St. Louis) won't be playing it.

[J.I.]

I see Date Night hitting $30 million this weekend and Clash falling below that number. And with Dragon, it could beat MvA, but I wouldn't count on it at this point.

[Buscemi]

Another wide release this weekend is Letters To God. From reading the premise, it sounds like a dramatic version of the South Park episode A Ladder To Heaven. And like Mr. Garrison said in that episode, "That's fuckin' stupid."

[Shrykespeare]

Friday estimates:


1. Date Night, $9.3M
2. Clash of the Titans, $8.4M
3. How to Train, $7.1M
4. The Last Song, $3.6M
5. Why Did I, $3.5M

So probably mid-to-high $20s for Date Night, and a 60% drop or so for Clash, unless Clash can rebound on Sat. and Sun.

[Shrykespeare]

WEEKEND ESTIMATES

Top 5:
5 points - Date Night, $27.1M
4 points - Clash of the Titans, $26.9M (-56.1%)
3 points - How to Train Your Dragon, $25.4M (-12.6%)
2 points - Why Did I Get Married Too, $11M (-62.4%)
1 point - The Last Song (-37.5%)

PTA (Feb/Mar):
5 points - The Square
4 points - Date Night
3 points - Clash of the Titans
2 points - How to Train Your Dragon
1 point - Why Did I Get Married Too?

(For April, remove Dragon, move up Married and insert [maybe] La Mission for 1 point.)

[Buscemi]

How To Train Your Dragon is now only $6 million behind Monsters vs. Aliens at the same period of release time.