SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 9/1

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numbersix
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SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 9/1

Post by numbersix »

Brace yourself, team, we’re in for a disaster.

With box office figures still in the doldrums, last week hit a new low with the Top 12 films of the week just about scraping $50m. But with only one new wide release out this week, and not a very good one I might add, it looks like we’re going to see that dip well below to $40m mark, making it one of the worst weekends of the last 25 years of US box office history. But fear not, folks, there’s probably something good to watch on TV instead.

September usually starts with a whimper, and this week’s selection is particularly poor. The bottom line is don’t bother, although there may be one gem lurking in the sea of faeces that is this week’s options.




The only wide release this week is Tulip Fever (Weinstein), and it’s barely so with only 600+ theatres screening it. Telling the tale of a couple trying to elope and live off the tulip industry in the 1800s, it stars Dan Dehaan, Alicia Vikander, Chris Waltz, and Judi Dench. And impressive cast, but not enough to shake the troubled past thanks to an unstable Weinstein Company, whose money issues are prominent in the trades. It feels this film had its moment and lost it, and this release strategy only confirms that. At best the film will open to $2m, and the lack of reviews in advance suggest this film is going to wilt. At best you’re going to see 1 T5, 2 PTA, a middling IMDB score, and $6-$7m cume. It’s just not worth your dollars.

Three limited releases come out this weekend, and if it was any other time, I’d say avoid them all. But one has some potential.



It certainly won’t be Unlocked (Lionsgate), an action-thriller starring Orlando Bloom and Noomi Rapace. Why?, because Lionsgate Premiere are releasing it, and essentially it’s just a token gesture to stick it in a few cinemas before focusing on online distribution. You’ll see it come out in a few dozen theatres and make a PTA of less than $1K, so forget it.




A Boy Called Po (Freestyle) may sound like someone got bored before finishing the title, but it’s actually inspired by true events as a widowed father attempts to take care of his autistic son. No major stars appear, and despite being acquired by Entertainment, Freestyle are putting this out and so far this year their releases have delivered poor results. So expect this to be the same. There’s a chance you might get a PTA point or two out of it, but it’s safe to say Po is not short for Potential.




Finally, the documentary Dolores (PBS) sounds like something that belongs on TV screens rather than the cinema. But this story of the labour activist Dolores Huerta who worked with Cesar Chavez to ensure farmers rights amongst many other achievements. With America now paying attention to protests and rights once more, this could be a timely release. It won’t break any records, but could have an opening PTA of $10K, enough to trounce the competition, and earn 5-7 PTA points in total. It’s worth a punt, particularly when it costs $2 in Ultimate.


My predictions for the weekend

1. The Hitman’s Bodyguard - $5.5m ($7m 4-day)
2. Annabelle Creation - $4m ($5m 4-day)
3. Leap! - $2.5m ($4m 4-day)
4. Wind River $2.3m ($3m 4-day)
5. Dunkirk- $2.2m ($3m 4-day)


PTA: Dolores, Beach Rats, Crown Heights, A Boy Called Po, Tulip Fever


When will this slump be beaten? Almost certainly next weekend with the release of the highly anticipated film about a scary clown – no, not coverage of Trump’s latest decisions, but the new adaptation of Stephen King’s It. Also coming out is rom-com Home Again, and limited releases The Unknown Girl, Trophy, and The Good Catholic. Let’s see what Walleye has to say about them.
Last edited by numbersix on August 31st, 2017, 5:02 am, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 9/1

Post by Buscemi2 »

I'm going to agree with Dolores winning the PTA crown. Though social/political documentaries have been failing left and right, a $5,000 weekend should be enough to win.

The one theatre showing Tulip Fever here is splitting screens with another movie so it might not even hit $1 million for the weekend if other theatres are able to do the same. In addition, the film's spent so long on the shelf that DeHaan and Delevingne were able to get Valerian made and released (didn't Delevingne also film Suicide Squad after this one?).

The weekend's so bad that Inhumans might actually crack the top ten even though MCU fans are refusing to acknowledge its existence (I don't even think Marvel's screening it to critics).

As for a back-up plan, I'd been watching my Blu-rays lately. Recent watches include The Hudsucker Proxy, Silent Running, Just Desserts: The Making of Creepshow, Johnny Handsome, and Beautiful Girls.
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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 9/1

Post by numbersix »

Just realised it's a 4-day weekend in the US so going to amend the numbers.

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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 9/1

Post by Shrykespeare »

Theater counts:

Close Encounters of the Third Kind (2017 Re-Release) - 901
Tulip Fever - 765
A Boy Called Po - 10


Celebrity Milestone Birthdays:

Daniel Stern turned 60 on 8/28
Happy 60th birthday Jet Li! (4/26/23)

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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 9/1

Post by Buscemi2 »

Kind of unusual that Tulip Fever still does not have reviews out (though it had advance screenings). Weinstein must have embargoed it.

Meanwhile, the few reviews for Inhumans available confirm it will be Marvel Studios' first flop. This further proves that no one is invincible (though I'm sure MCU fans will claim it doesn't count as it's getting fewer than 400 theatres and will be replaced with It next Friday).

Also getting bad reviews is William H. Macy's long-on-the-shelf The Layover. But then again, did anyone expect a film with Kate Upton and Alexandra Daddario to be any good? Macy should stick to acting.
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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 9/1

Post by numbersix »

Yep, embargoes until today, I believe. Not a good sign.

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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 9/1

Post by Shrykespeare »

Friday Estimates

The Hitman's Bodyguard, $2.4M
Annabelle: Creation, $1.8M
Wind River, $1.5M
Leap!, $1.1M
Logan Lucky, $1.1M



Weekend Projections (4-day estimates)

The Htman's Bodygard, $12M (wow... three in a row... wish I'd taken this on every Ultimate slate!)
Annabelle: Creation, $8.6M
Wind River, $7.6M
Leap!, $6.2M
Dunkirk, $5.3M
Logan Lucky, $5.2M
Spider-Man: Homecoming, $4.5M
The Emoji Movie, $3.1M
Despicable Me 3, $3.0M
Girls Trip, $2.6M
Happy 60th birthday Jet Li! (4/26/23)

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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 9/1

Post by Shrykespeare »

Weekend Estimates (3-day)

Top 10:
5 points - The Hitman's Bodyguard, $10.5M
4 points - Annabelle: Creation, $7.5M
3 points - Wind River, $6.2M
2 points - Leap, $4.9M
1 point - Logan Lucky, $4.5M
Dunkirk, $4.4M
Spider-Man: Homecoming, $3.6M
Despicable Me 3, $2.5M
The Emoji Movie, $2.4M
Girls Trip, $2.3M


PTA:
5 points - Dolores
4 points - Beach Rats
3 points - The Hitman's Bodyguard
2 points - Wind River
1 point - Annabelle: Creation


Boy oh boy, am I glad I listened to you guys and picked Beach Rats and Dolores!


Tulip Fever managed $1.2M in 765 theaters for a PTA of $1,500.
Happy 60th birthday Jet Li! (4/26/23)

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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 9/1

Post by Shrykespeare »

BTW, it looks like It is slated for a 4,000+ theater opening next week. Is that the largest ever for a horror movie?


It - 4,000+
Home Again - Wide
Rebel in the Rye - 4
The Unknown Girl - 2
Happy 60th birthday Jet Li! (4/26/23)

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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 9/1

Post by undeadmonkey »

i saw how weak these least two weeks were in regards to new releases, but i should have put 2+2 together and realized that Hitmans Bodyguard and Annabelle would be cleaning up in Top5 and PTA with no competition.

Honestly, with how slow these past two weeks have been, i don't understand why some of the studios didnt re-release some of their summer films

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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 9/1

Post by Shrykespeare »

Weekend Actuals (3-day)

Top 10:
5 points - The Hitman's Bodyguard, $10.5M (15)
4 points - Annabelle: Creation, $7.5M (15)
3 points - Wind River, $6.2M (5)
2 points - Leap!, $4.8M (5)
1 point - Logan Lucky, $4.4M (5)
Dunkirk, $4.4M
Spider-Man: Homecoming, $3.7M
Despicable Me 3, $2.5M
The Emoji Movie, $2.5M
Girls Trip, $2.3M


PTA:
5 points - Dolores, $13,534 (5)
4 points - Beach Rats, $5,489 (9)
3 points - The Hitman's Bodyguard, $3,126 (7)
2 points - Wind River, $2,397 (9)
1 point - Annabelle: Creation, $2,235 (2)
Happy 60th birthday Jet Li! (4/26/23)

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