Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 8/25

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Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 8/25

Post by transformers2 »

25 years after Kevin Costner and Whitney Houston burned up the screen with their off-the-charts chemistry, another Bodyguard has captured the hearts of America.

The Ryan Reynolds and Samuel.L Jackson-led action comedy The Hitman's Bodyguard debuted at #1 at the box office with a slightly higher-than- expected $21.4 mil haul. With a modest $29 mil budget and a slow pair of weekends leading up to the release of the heavily-hyped It on September 8th that it should be able to easily win, Patrick Hughes' ultraviolent buddy movie should end up going down as one of Summer 2017's small handful of BO success stories. While The Hitman's Bodyguard soared, last weekend's other wide release wasn't as Lucky (*insert airhorn here*). Steven Soderbergh's self-distributed/written/directed/funded/catered comeback project Logan Lucky managed an underwhelming $7.3 mil opening (#3 overall for the weekend) and launched a thousand thinkpieces about why its experimental marketing/distribution model failed to work in the modern age of moviegoing.

The rest of the top 5 played out pretty predictably as Annabelle: Creation ($15.6 mil, 55% drop), Dunkirk ($6.6 mil, 39% drop) and The Nut Job 2 ($5.0 mil, 39% drop) finished in the #2, #4 and #5 spots respectively. Annabelle: Creation's strong 10-day start and good WOM is an encouraging sign for Warner Brothers' future plans to further expand The Conjuring universe (starting with next year's The Nun) while Dunkirk's month-long stint in the Top 5 proves Christopher Nolan is one of the few directors that can attract a wide audience with original projects.

Wide Releases
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You know a weekend is royally fucked when a cartoon about an aspiring ballerina has the highest ceiling of any film on the schedule. Leap!(Weinstein) has been shifted around the schedule multiple times by the fatcats at The Weinstein Company, so you can tell the presence of an exclamation point in the title is VERY sincere. This French/Canadian-produced film centers around an orphaned 11-year old girl (Elle Fanning), who dreams of being a ballerina and her best friend (Nat Wolff), who aspires to be an inventor. The pair flee their suburban orphanage for Paris and despite being unintentionally separated along the way, they stay determined to follow their lofty dreams in the big city.

Despite its solid reception (6.9 IMDB, 73% RT) from foreign markets, decent theater count (approximately 2,000) and cheap price In our game ($5 in both formats), Leap! is all but confirmed to fail in the good ol' USA. Weinstein's track record with animated projects is pretty poor and the ballerina-driven plot doesn't seem like its going to gel with American audiences. The lack of competition is really the only thing that Leap! has going in its favor. Even though I only expect it to pull down $4 mil in its opening frame and max out at $12-14 mil for its entire run, it could very well end up stealing a few top 5 points over the next couple weekends. That being said, a small amount of potential top 5 points (I'm thinking it comes away with 2) isn't enough to justify putting Leap! on any of your slates.


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If Hollywood has taught us anything over the years, it's that Jesus Christ is really fashionable around Labor Day. When the Game Stands Tall, Fireproof and especially War Room have all found considerable success in the holy months of August and September over the past 5 years. This year's entry in the late-summer sermon series is All Saints (Sony), directed by the man behind Barney's First Adventure and starring the sweet, flowing locks formerly known as John Corbett. This fact-based story weaves a tale of a pastor (Corbett) at a struggling church in Small Town USA that decides to help out a group of homeless immigrants from an Asian country that I couldn't identify from watching the trailer or looking at the IMDB page and potentially save his congregation by opening a farm on the grounds.

When we were all assessing the schedule trying to find late-round gems in our FY draft back in late April/early May, All Saints seemed like one of the more high upside-choices available. Sony has been behind almost every breakout Christian-themed movie of the last decade and the current BO climate is reminiscent of the paper-thin marketplace that War Room thrived in 2 years ago. However, upon further investigation into All Saints' credentials, that optimism faded away real quick. The filmmakers attached to this don't have a proven pedigree in the faith-based film community and it's religious overtones look restrained compared to the Miracles from Heaven and God Not Dead's of the world. I'm expecting an OW around $3 mil, a final gross of about $8 mil and zero Top 5 or PTA points for this "inspiring" Christian drama. Unless Jesus has some cinematic miracles in store for this sleepy weekend that I'm not privy to, you should pass on All Saints.


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Film nerds everywhere rejoice! It's finally Bruce Lee's turn to have his legacy shat on by a poorly-conceived, largely inaccurate biopic! Birth of the Dragon (Blumhouse Tilt/WWE Studios) focuses on Lee's heavily-scrutinized decision to teach white people Chinese martial arts once he arrived in the United States from Hong Kong in the early 60's and the infamous 1965 fight with fellow martial arts master/teacher Wong Jack Man in Oakland, California that reportedly stemmed from the duo's disagreement in philosophy/inclusiveness.

The number of red flags attached to Birth of the Dragon is alarming to say the least. George Nolfi's (The Adjustment Bureau film got trashed after it premiered at the Toronto Film Festival last fall (it currently holds an abysmal 3.7 rating on IMDB), has been publicly condemned by Lee's daughter and most importantly, is being released by a studio in Blumhouse Tilt that has never distributed a title that's grossed over $10.5 mil domestically. If Birth of the Dragon can muster more than $2-3 mil this weekend and $6-7 mil before it closes, I'll be absolutely stunned. With an already terrible IMDB score and basically no chance of sneaking into the top 5 this weekend, Birth of A Dragon appears to be the biggest turd in the sky-high pile of shit that is this weekend's wide releases.


Limited Release:
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While the three wide releases have collectively grim prospects, Beach Rats (Neon)-the sole limited release available in our game this weekend- has a much sunnier outlook. With good reviews thus far (81% on RT) and the backing of a promising upstart studio in Neon, this Sundance acquisition that centers around a Brooklyn teenager's (Harris Dickinson) struggle to find his personal and sexual identity is in a prime position to take advantage of the relatively sparse slate of new releases scheduled over the next few weeks. It's a shoo-in to win the PTA crown this week and could end up accumulating as many as 13-14 PTA points by the end of its run depending on how the indies slated for release over the first two weeks of September end up faring (A Boy Called Po, Rebel in the Rye, Trophy). If you didn't already cash in on any of the PTA winners from earlier this month (Wind River, Ingrid Goes West, Gook, Good Time) and/or have a extra few bucks to spend on any of your ULT slates, Beach Rats should end up being an excellent pickup.


Weekend Predicitions:
1The Hitman's Bodyguard $13 mil
2.Anabelle: Creation $8 mil
3.Logan Lucky $4.5 mil
4/5.Leap,Dunkirk $4 mil

--All Saints $3 mil
---Birth of the Dragon $2 mil

PTA: Beach Rats, Crown Heights, Gook, The Hitman's Bodyguard, Ingrid Goes West

Tune in next week when six takes us through another gem-filled weekend headlined by B-action flick Unlocked, indie drama A Boy Called Po and the long-awaited release of ensemble period drama Tulip Fever.
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 8/25

Post by Buscemi2 »

Logan Lucky flopped for one simple reason: it's not very good. Critics might have liked it but the Cinemascore was a B and there was no reason to open in 3,000 theatres (and Soderbergh using the international sales for marketing purposes was hardly experimental, indies did this all the time back in the 80's). I was also amazed to find out that it cost close to $30 million before promotion (it could have been made for under $10 million).

And Neon has spent so much time marketing Ingrid Goes West that there's been really no marketing for Beach Rats. And its premise being about cruising will severely limit its potential. It will be a surprise if it can make a million.

But anyway, I agree with the openers (but I think All Saints makes less). Good Time or Ingrid Goes West could sneak into the top five though. And though not in the game, the Terminator 2 reissue (of which the AMC here is apparently not booking and will instead keep Despicable Me 3 for another weekend, I'm hoping that rumored expansion to other chains next week is true) and A Gentleman could sneak into the top ten.
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 8/25

Post by Shrykespeare »

RIP Jerry Lewis.

Celebrity milestone birthdays:

Carrie-Anne Moss turned 50 on 8/21 (for a while, didn't we all have a crush on Trinity?)
Cindy Williams turned 70 on 8/22 (Schlemiel! Schlimazel! Hasenpfeffer Incorporated!)
Adewale Akinnuoye-Agbaje turned 50 on 8/22 (pretty reliable character actor)
Ty Burrell turned 50 on 8/22 (don't watch Modern Family... do any of you?)
Anne Archer turns 70 on 8/24 (she fucked Glenn Close up good in Fatal Attraction)
Stephen Fry turns 60 on 8/24 (loved him in the Blackadder series)
Blake Lively turns 30 on 8/25 (I remember her all the way back in Accepted, rrowr)
Barbara Bach turns 70 on 8/27 (Spy Who Loved Me Bond girl)
Happy 60th birthday Jet Li! (4/26/23)

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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 8/25

Post by Buscemi2 »

I had to watch Modern Family in a class once. I don't understand the appeal (everyone's a cartoonish cliche and it has confession cam, the worst part of reality television, featured) but it always wins Emmys (of course, they only ever nominate the same few shows).

Edit: of course, the AMC here isn't getting Terminator 2 but there's another weekend of The Emoji Movie (which the Drafthouse ended after two weeks) running. They've been pulling this shit a lot lately (they were supposed to get Trainspotting 2 on exclusive but never did, choosing to run three prints of Ghost in the Shell instead, and refused to let any other theatre play it though the local non-profit wanted it). The AMC and Regal bookers here are idiots (Pirates of the Caribbean ran almost three months, I seriously have a hard time believing that was still making money after the third week).

To be fair, at least they aren't the podunk B&B that has twelve screens but only ever shows four or five movies (The Mummy got four screens opening weekend).
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 8/25

Post by numbersix »

What a weekend. 3 wide releases and none earning over $5m this weekend. I broadly agree, Tranny, Leap has the best shot of making any return in Ultimate at least, only because next week has so little coming out. I'm still praying that All Saints surprises despite the low theatre count, but it's looking unlikely.

Weekend Predicitions:
1The Hitman's Bodyguard $11 mil
2.Anabelle: Creation $7.5 mil
3/4/5.Leap,Dunkirk, Logan Lucky $4 mil

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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 8/25

Post by Walleye413 »

Nice write up Tranny. And if any of ya'll are looking for more - the boxofficemojo write up for this weekend is scathing. It's been a bad summer my friends.

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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 8/25

Post by Buscemi2 »

The industry has no one to blame but themselves. They were too busy trying to make trends that few wanted to happen (movies based on apps, film sequels to completely different mediums, feel good movies with unsympathetic protagonists) or held onto things that went stale long ago (party-themed comedies, white American savior tracts) when audiences want female-led superhero movies, feel good movies where you actually like the characters, and films with an international flavor (the biggest movie of the summer had set pieces in ancient Greece, the UK, and Germany and had an Israeli lead).

The studios need to realize that it's not the 80's or the 2000's anymore and return to developing projects that sell in places other than Texas or China.

In fact, I shall do a list of bad trends that hopefully will go away next year (but more than likely won't):

- Movies where the audience is supposed to sympathize with the unsympathetic.
- Movies shot on phones or tablets.
- 80's retro movement movies.
- Casting Emily Blunt, Rooney Mara, Jessica Chastain, or Scarlett Johansson in every role that requires a non-American.
- Movies that seem to be convinced that the disabled are to be mocked for our amusement or serve as a cliche.
- Taking Rotten Tomatoes seriously.
- Rap songs in trailers for historical films.
- Pull quotes in trailers and posters.
- Quirky indie comedies than are neither quirky nor indie nor a comedy.
- Making a bad script just because Bella Thorne said yes to it.
- Making a bad script just because James Franco said yes to both star and direct it.
- Good military vs. evil aliens movies (can't the aliens be the good guys for once?).
- Self-distributed movies that are very obviously the rough cut.
- Asian-themed movies where everyone is white because no one understood why Life of Pi was a hit.
- Post-converted 3-D (stop trying to claim it's just as good as the real thing, it's not).
- Oscar bait.
- Giving Denis Villeneuve or Doug Liman every franchise.
- Movies that pair Tom Cruise is paired with a much younger blonde woman (creepy and the blonde's part is nothing but a movable prop).
- Movies that pair Jennifer Lawrence with a much older man (also creepy and people should stop claiming it's not, also Lawrence's fans need to stop being creepy and believing that they'll get a chance with her because she likes older men).
- Films made by a committee that's mostly male, obsessive, narcissistic, and with problems with anyone of another gender or race.
- Mumblecore.

In short, stop catering to the worst of the worst and ignoring the people who actually go to the movies week after week. Of course, The Purge 4 is opening on Independence Day weekend and we have another Transformers scheduled for Christmas so it's going to be a while before the industry gets their heads out of their collective asses and figures out what people really want (and it's not what 4chan talks about).

As the fight, I'm not expecting a good fight (Mayweather's more interested in money and trolling people than fighting while McGregor is a mixed martial artist who seems to only be in boxing for attention) but it will make money. Why? Have you ever seen The Great White Hype?
Last edited by Buscemi2 on August 24th, 2017, 9:16 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 8/25

Post by Shrykespeare »

Yikes, Boosh.


Anyway, Here are the theater counts:

Leap! - 2,575
Birth of the Dragon - 1,675
All Saints - 845
Beach Rats - 3

Good Time expands to 721
Ingrid Goes West expands to 647



Next week:

Tulip Fever - 600
Close Encounters of the Third Kind (2017 Re-Release) - 700
Happy 60th birthday Jet Li! (4/26/23)

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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 8/25

Post by Buscemi2 »

Is Do It Like a Hombre (opening in 370 theatres) in the game? That could surprise next week, based on its strong results in Mexico and Pantelion having had much success on Labor Day weekend.
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 8/25

Post by Shrykespeare »

No, it isn't. Sorry.


I'm looking at next summer's lineup, wondering if there is any original content coming out. There ain't much. Here's what I found coming in wide release that isn't a sequel, a reboot, a remake, a "reimagining", or part of a franchise. Feel free to shoot any of these down if I'm wrong, Boosh.

Slenderman
Tag
The Spy Who Dumped Me
The Nun
Skyscraper
Alita: Battle Angel
Meg
Captive State


I wonder if all these films, put together, will earn what Wonder Woman did.

I'm not going to say that next August looks as bad as this August, but when the biggest earners look to be another Predator movie, a Barbie movie, and a remake of Scarface... yeah.
Happy 60th birthday Jet Li! (4/26/23)

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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 8/25

Post by Buscemi2 »

I think Alita: Battle Angel (based on a manga) will be big. It's James Cameron teaming with Robert Rodriguez on a project people (especially Cameron's fanbase) have waited years for. Of course, I thought Valerian would do well too.

Meg should also do well. The book was popular and people like shark movies.

I'd be surprised if Skyscraper stayed in the summer, especially if Fighting with My Family gets distribution for a summer release (I'm thinking Annapurna will go after distribution rights as part of their MGM deal). Dwayne Johnson's hot streak ended with Baywatch and having three movies with him open so close could be overkill.

Tag reminds me too much of Fist Fight (that bomb with Ice Cube back in February), Slenderman came years too late (that HBO documentary explains why Slenderman stopped being a thing), and The Spy Who Dumped Me would be better off in September. Kate McKinnon's not going to be the next big comedienne (as seen by her ridiculous accent in Rough Night). Makes me wish someone would give Maria Bamford a chance at a star vehicle if Netflix won't do anything will Lady Dynamite's second season.

Captive State should play modestly while The Nun should play to Annabelle numbers.
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 8/25

Post by BanksIsDaFuture »

The Nun is a part of The Conjuring franchise, so I don't think it counts as original.
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 8/25

Post by Shrykespeare »

BanksIsDaFuture wrote:The Nun is a part of The Conjuring franchise, so I don't think it counts as original.
Ah. Didn't know that.
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 8/25

Post by Ron Burgundy »

This certainly is a weak weekend $ wise. Thanks for the article tranny!
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 8/25

Post by Walleye413 »

Next Summer I think some of the Sequels and Threequels will actually do better, because they'll be a little better. And then Hollywood will think all their problems are solved anyway. Is it bad to hope that next year is a dud too? I want brave, original films - not retreads. But until more "sure-fire" franchises start to fail I don't think we'll get that with any consistency.

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