SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 8/11
Posted: August 8th, 2017, 9:04 am
Well, looks like cinema is going down the toilet. This summer is 10% behind last year, and AMC Cinemas have experienced a huge slump in their shares. Only Wonder Woman truly exceeded expectations and held the box office aloft, but one person can only do so much. Will August offer salvation? Well not if The Dark Tower was its main hope. This week seems more promising, but only just.
I’m going to be nice about it because Jason Blum complimented my film A Dark Song, but Annabelle: Creation (Warner Bros) is the fourth film in the Conjuring universe, so you know what to expect. This one is a prequel, exploring the origin of that incredibly creepy doll (I can’t wait for the crossover Annabelle Vs Chucky, coming to a bargain bucket near you). Taking the reins is David Sandberg, who made the surprise hit Lights Out last year. Now, horror sequels tend to have diminishing returns, and the first Annabelle opened high but had awful legs. You’d expect this film to do half of the first, but reviews have been stronger, and horror this summer has been weak sauce. So at worst you’re going to see this open in the mid 20s and probably close in the mid 60s. That’s not bad for $11-13 in BO, and for $11-15 in Ultimate you’re going to get at least 9 T5, 1 PTA, and an IMDB score in the 6s. They’re solid figures all round, so I suggest grabbing this.
The Nut Job 2: Nutty by Nature (Open Road) is here because the first surprised us all in 2014 by opening to $19m and earning a total of $64m. In the wasteland that is January. Naturally, a sequel was squeezed out and again it’s getting released in a weak weekend. Can lightning strike twice, can this film nut harder? While it’s unlikely to make as much, the underperformance of The Emoji Movie and the lack of direct competition outside of Leap (a future dud) suggests this could do fine, opening to around $14m and closing over $40m. It’s tempting to pick up in BO for $9 or $8, but only if you think it’ll fare better than predicted. In Ultimate I predict it’ll hoard 6 T5, no PTA, an IMDB in the low 6s. You might get better for $9/10.
Last, and definitely least, is the indie drama The Glass Castle (Lionsgate). Written and directed by Destin Cretton (who made Short Term 12), this film is about a dysfunctional family living off the grid in 1970s USA. It has an impressive cast, most notably Brie Larson in her first lead dramatic role since winning the Oscar for Room, as well as Woody Harrelson and Naomi Watts. However, the premise has been done before, such as in the recent Captain Fantastic, and reviews have been cold. With Lionsgate putting it out in 1400 theatres, don’t expect much from this in Ultimate, and you’d be lucky to see this close with $15m total. Let this film stay off your grid.
And now we come to the real battle. This week sees four limited releases hitting our screens. And while that usually means some will evidently fail and others obviously succeed, for this particular weekend they all are potential hits. So rather than look at each individually I’m going to lump them together in my PTA Thunderdome. So let me introduce the Indie Warriors:
The Only Living Boy in New York (Roadside) is directed by Marc “Spiderman’s” Webb, who is hot off the success of Gifted earlier this year, and is about a college graduate who sleeps with his father’s mistress. Kate Beckinsale, Pierce Brosnan and Jeff Bridges feature.
Ingrid Goes West (Neon) stars Aubrey Plaza as a mental stalker who is obsessed with an Instagram star, and premiered in Sundance this year.
Good Time (A24) is a crime drama starring Robert Pattinson (who didn’t have to jerk off a dog, apparently), which opened in Cannes last May.
The Trip to Italy (IFC) is the third film featuring Steve Coogan and comedian Rob Brydon as versions of themselves as they go on another culinary adventure while attempting to see who does the best Roger Moore impersonation.
So, who’s going to win? All the films cost roughly the same in Ultimate, and all are probably not worth the risk in BO. Theatre counts are going to play a huge role, so keep an eye out for them. And the expansion of Wind River is also something to consider.
A few weeks ago, you’d be right to put your money on TOLBINY, but its absence from major fests and the poor reviews are going to be detrimental to this drama. If it picks up a single PTA point it’ll be exceeding expectations. So Avoid. Ingrid Goes West got a good response from Sundance, and Aubrey Plaza’s profile is on the up. But Neon have recently been launching films into 30 or so theatres, so watch out for that trap. Also, their expansions tend to have weak results.
IFC have fared well with the Trip films so far, especially the last film. While the third film probably won’t do as well, its shock ending will create some buzz, so you could still see this have a PTA of over 10K from the 2 screens it’s coming out on. But my money’s on A24, those indie heroes, who are already promoting the unique aspects of their film (such as the soundtrack). And reviews are strong for this one. So Good Time, which is out in NY and LA this week, could end up with 7-9 PTA points, The Trip to Spain maybe 5-6, and Ingrid up to 4.
My predictions for the weekend
1. Annabelle Creation - $27m
2. The Nut Job 2 - $14m
3. Dunkirk- $12m
4. Girls Trip - $7.5m
5. The Dark Tower - $7.4m
- The Glass Castle - $5m
PTA: Good Time, The Trip to Spain, Wind River, Ingrid Goes West, Annabelle 2
Next week Daniel TMG, whoever he is, will look at a mere 4 (amateurs) films, namely action comedy The Hitman’s Bodyguard and experimental wide release (and dyslexia-inducing) Logan Lucky, and limited releases Patti Cakes and Gook.
I’m going to be nice about it because Jason Blum complimented my film A Dark Song, but Annabelle: Creation (Warner Bros) is the fourth film in the Conjuring universe, so you know what to expect. This one is a prequel, exploring the origin of that incredibly creepy doll (I can’t wait for the crossover Annabelle Vs Chucky, coming to a bargain bucket near you). Taking the reins is David Sandberg, who made the surprise hit Lights Out last year. Now, horror sequels tend to have diminishing returns, and the first Annabelle opened high but had awful legs. You’d expect this film to do half of the first, but reviews have been stronger, and horror this summer has been weak sauce. So at worst you’re going to see this open in the mid 20s and probably close in the mid 60s. That’s not bad for $11-13 in BO, and for $11-15 in Ultimate you’re going to get at least 9 T5, 1 PTA, and an IMDB score in the 6s. They’re solid figures all round, so I suggest grabbing this.
The Nut Job 2: Nutty by Nature (Open Road) is here because the first surprised us all in 2014 by opening to $19m and earning a total of $64m. In the wasteland that is January. Naturally, a sequel was squeezed out and again it’s getting released in a weak weekend. Can lightning strike twice, can this film nut harder? While it’s unlikely to make as much, the underperformance of The Emoji Movie and the lack of direct competition outside of Leap (a future dud) suggests this could do fine, opening to around $14m and closing over $40m. It’s tempting to pick up in BO for $9 or $8, but only if you think it’ll fare better than predicted. In Ultimate I predict it’ll hoard 6 T5, no PTA, an IMDB in the low 6s. You might get better for $9/10.
Last, and definitely least, is the indie drama The Glass Castle (Lionsgate). Written and directed by Destin Cretton (who made Short Term 12), this film is about a dysfunctional family living off the grid in 1970s USA. It has an impressive cast, most notably Brie Larson in her first lead dramatic role since winning the Oscar for Room, as well as Woody Harrelson and Naomi Watts. However, the premise has been done before, such as in the recent Captain Fantastic, and reviews have been cold. With Lionsgate putting it out in 1400 theatres, don’t expect much from this in Ultimate, and you’d be lucky to see this close with $15m total. Let this film stay off your grid.
And now we come to the real battle. This week sees four limited releases hitting our screens. And while that usually means some will evidently fail and others obviously succeed, for this particular weekend they all are potential hits. So rather than look at each individually I’m going to lump them together in my PTA Thunderdome. So let me introduce the Indie Warriors:
The Only Living Boy in New York (Roadside) is directed by Marc “Spiderman’s” Webb, who is hot off the success of Gifted earlier this year, and is about a college graduate who sleeps with his father’s mistress. Kate Beckinsale, Pierce Brosnan and Jeff Bridges feature.
Ingrid Goes West (Neon) stars Aubrey Plaza as a mental stalker who is obsessed with an Instagram star, and premiered in Sundance this year.
Good Time (A24) is a crime drama starring Robert Pattinson (who didn’t have to jerk off a dog, apparently), which opened in Cannes last May.
The Trip to Italy (IFC) is the third film featuring Steve Coogan and comedian Rob Brydon as versions of themselves as they go on another culinary adventure while attempting to see who does the best Roger Moore impersonation.
So, who’s going to win? All the films cost roughly the same in Ultimate, and all are probably not worth the risk in BO. Theatre counts are going to play a huge role, so keep an eye out for them. And the expansion of Wind River is also something to consider.
A few weeks ago, you’d be right to put your money on TOLBINY, but its absence from major fests and the poor reviews are going to be detrimental to this drama. If it picks up a single PTA point it’ll be exceeding expectations. So Avoid. Ingrid Goes West got a good response from Sundance, and Aubrey Plaza’s profile is on the up. But Neon have recently been launching films into 30 or so theatres, so watch out for that trap. Also, their expansions tend to have weak results.
IFC have fared well with the Trip films so far, especially the last film. While the third film probably won’t do as well, its shock ending will create some buzz, so you could still see this have a PTA of over 10K from the 2 screens it’s coming out on. But my money’s on A24, those indie heroes, who are already promoting the unique aspects of their film (such as the soundtrack). And reviews are strong for this one. So Good Time, which is out in NY and LA this week, could end up with 7-9 PTA points, The Trip to Spain maybe 5-6, and Ingrid up to 4.
My predictions for the weekend
1. Annabelle Creation - $27m
2. The Nut Job 2 - $14m
3. Dunkirk- $12m
4. Girls Trip - $7.5m
5. The Dark Tower - $7.4m
- The Glass Castle - $5m
PTA: Good Time, The Trip to Spain, Wind River, Ingrid Goes West, Annabelle 2
Next week Daniel TMG, whoever he is, will look at a mere 4 (amateurs) films, namely action comedy The Hitman’s Bodyguard and experimental wide release (and dyslexia-inducing) Logan Lucky, and limited releases Patti Cakes and Gook.