Down the Rabbit Hole with Buscemi: August 4th Titles

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Down the Rabbit Hole with Buscemi: August 4th Titles

Post by Buscemi2 »

The system goes online on August 4th, 1997. This week, we will take a look at three wide releases, Wednesday's opener, How to Be a Player (Gramercy), Conspiracy Theory (Warner Bros.), and Free Willy 3: The Rescue (Warner Bros.). In addition, we will be weighing in the chance of Mike Leigh's newest Career Girls (October) in limited release.

Wait, what? Apparently, I've been told by Grandmaster Shryke and the Furious Five that this is not 1997 but 2017 and that I screwed up really bad. That's kind of a bummer but yeah, let's talk about last week's results and this week's ideas.

Last Week

It began as a close race between holdover Dunkirk and the universally panned newcomer The Emoji Movie, but in the end Dunkirk prevailed with a $26.6 million second weekend while The Emoji Movie did $24.5 million. Meanwhile, Atomic Blonde took in $18.3 million to finish fourth while Girls Trip held strong at third with $19.6 million thanks to the first A+ Cinemascore of the year (Patriots Day also had an A+ this year but that was a wide expansion of a late December release) and Valerian and the City of a Thousand Planets dropped hard. Spider-Man: Homecoming rounded out the top five with $13.2 million.

On the limited release front, An Inconvenient Truth: Truth to Power won the PTA title but lags far behind the first film in both ticket sales and box office at the same point, making plans for a wide expansion very unlikely and adding to Paramount's woes (as well as politically-charged documentaries' woes) this year. Detroit also played well in a 20 theatre debut before its expansion to 2,800 theatres, sending good vibes to Annapurna Pictures in their first release (they have three more titles scheduled this year, one of those being the Death Wish remake, and another for Mother's Day). Menashe and Brigsby Bear (the latter also planned for an unscheduled wide expansion) also played decent to strong in limited release.

This Week

"Tower" of Power

This week's biggest opener is The Dark Tower (Columbia), getting 3,200 theatres. After years in development hell and a change in director from Ron Howard to Nikolaj Arcel (plus multiple release date delays), the long-awaited adaptation of Stephen King's series, which is actually a sequel to the book series (Sony and Imagine must be saving the eight novels for the planned TV show), finally arrives at a movie theatre near you. Sony, having been troubled in recent years with the 2014 hack and the rocky regime of Tom Rothman, hopes that this is the in-house franchise that puts them back on track after last year's Ghostbusters couldn't bring them out of the funk (Spider-Man really doesn't count as Sony only distributed that one).

So the plot focuses on a kid who discovers the clues taking him to an alternate dimension. There he finds The Gunslinger, the protagonist of the books (played by Idris Elba), who is seeking the titular tower in an attempt to save the world from extinction. Meanwhile, The Man in Black (Matthew McConaughey) also wants to reach the tower and will do anything to get there first.

Running a scant 95 minutes, I get the feeling this is not going to be the big franchise that Sony thinks it will be. To make matters worse, it's not an actual adaptation of the books but a direct follow-up, which is bound to confuse non-fans or people who haven't read them. It makes one wonder why they didn't just adapt The Gunslinger and make everyone happy.

Box Office Potential: tracking seems to all over the place, anywhere between mid teens to mid 30's. I'm going to say a $26 million opening and a $72 million finish. Not awful but not great.

(There was an section on Detroit, originally scheduled to open this weekend. However, Annapurna Pictures decided to open this one a week early in limited release before expanding wide this week. Sorry for the inconvenience and enjoy the next few paragraphs. Thank you.)

Disco "Kidnap"

The other wide opener is a film from a (sort-of) new distributor. Kidnap (Aviron), opening in 2,200 theatres, is the second film from Aviron Pictures, a company formed from the ashes of failed mid-major Clairus Entertainment. Their first film, My All-American, was distributed through Focus two years ago and flopped but the company is trying again with this shot-in-2014 refugee from the turmoil at Relativity Media.

If you thought that this came out a long time ago, I'm not surprised. I remember seeing a trailer for this in the theatre last year back when Relativity was set to open the film in December. The plot is more or less a combination of the Taken trilogy and Berry's The Call involving Berry's character's son getting kidnapped and with authorities being unhelpful, only she can save her son. Many car chases and mayhem ensue.

Directed by Luis Prieto (whose only other film was the disastrous Nick Love-ified remake of Nicolas Winding Refn's Pusher), the film has already been released in Europe online and has some 5,000 votes on IMDb (voters gave it a 6.1 rating). Berry isn't the name that she used to be (though The Call did well back in 2013) and combined with this being from an untested distributor, I don't like its box office appeal.

Box Office Potential: the combination of its long-on-the-shelf nature and it being from a young distributor makes this a tricky proposition. I wouldn't recommend selecting it for your slate. $4 million opening, $9 million finish.

Arthouse Class 101

In this week's Arthouse Class 101, we will be going to school with two major limited release titles.

Step (Fox Searchlight) - this was a well-regarded documentary at Sundance (winning a Special Jury Prize) focusing on a step team in Baltimore and the turmoils, both personal and political, that the group faces as they work together to achieve their personal glory.

Fox Searchlight has been marketing this one very well, running trailers with major releases like Gifted and Captain Underpants, and planning major expansions throughout August. I think it's got the potential to break out unlike other recent documentaries as though political, it's also a feel-good movie. I expect more Kedi than City of Ghosts in terms of box office. The IMDb rating will be bogged down by racist/misognystic teenage boys but it's a good pick. Despite its 30 theatre opening, PTA numbers should be strong, especially in the Baltimore/Washington D.C. market.

Wind River (Weinstein) - another Sundance hit, this film from the writer of Sicario and Hell or High Water focuses on a a Fish and Wildlife agent (Jeremy Renner) and a rookie FBI agent (Elizabeth Olsen) investigating a murder on the Wind River reservation in Wyoming. Braving bitter cold and constant danger, the two fight to survive to solve the case. The film also reteams Sheridan with Hell or High Water co-star (and the best part of that film) Gil Birmingham in a major role.

The film's history with The Weinstein Company (somehow still alive and kicking) has been a torrid one. Weinstein picked it up out of Cannes, only to drop it, and then pick it up again at Sundance. Planned for a wide expansion on August 11th, I get the feeling this may be a one-and-done film despite Taylor Sheridan's pedigree and his Best Director win at Cannes (in the Un Certain Regard category). It's going to do well on opening weekend and IMDb should be good with fans of Sheridan's other films but with Weinstein not having the promotional power that Lionsgate (distributor of the previous Sheridan works mentioned) has, I can't see the wide run faring well against the various other indie offerings, both wide and limited.

Opening in four theatres, it should be good for at least four PTA points but that's it.

Lycan (Parade Deck) - I really have to do this one? Really, Shryke and the New Pricing Committee Generation? All I know is that it's about werewolves and it has someone from Heroes (remember that show?) in it. Please, don't take it. Even if you have a couple of dollars to spare.

Predictions:
1. The Dark Tower $26 million
2. Dunkirk $15 million
3. Girls Trip $12 million
4. Detroit $11 million
5. The Emoji Movie $10 million
-- Kidnap $4 million

PTA:
With just five titles here, everything is guaranteed a point for the August-October game (yes, even Lycan) so let's just skip this part. But for past rounds, Menashe should get a few more points.

Next Week

On the docket for August 11th, we have Annabelle: Kreayshawn, the adventures of the killer doll and member of the White Girl Mafia, The Nut Job 2: Naughty by Nature, where the members of the 1990's rap group take over for a darker and edgier sequel, The White Castle, a family drama set in a fast food restaurant...

Oh, crap. Something's been screwy.

Corrected version...

On the docket for August 11th, we have Annabelle: Creation (New Line), The Nut Job 2: Nutty by Nature (Open Road), and The Glass Castle (Lionsgate) opening wide. Opening limited are Good Time (A24), Ingrid Goes West (Neon), The Only Living Boy in New York (Roadside Attractions/Amazon), and The Trip to Spain (IFC).

And past box office memories...

2007: The Bourne Ultimatum won the weekend with $69.3 million. The Simpsons Movie, last week's topper, plunged 66% but still placed second with $25.1 million. Underdog rounded out the top three with $11.6 million. Hot Rod and Bratz tanked $5.3 million and $4.2 million respectively while El Cantante did a serviceable $3.2 million in semi-wide release. The star in limited release was Becoming Jane, which made $972,066 in 100 theatres.

1997: Conspiracy Theory won the weekend with $19.3 million. Second was Air Force One in its third weekend with $17.8 million (officially crossing $100 million on August 9th). Spawn took third with $8.9 million, shedding 55% from its opening weekend take. How to Be a Player did nicely, taking in $4.2 million ($5.7 million in five days) in just 751 theatres while Free Willy 3: The Rescue's take of just $992,651 did not justify Warner Bros.' decision in making another installment in the orca saga. On the limited front, it was a close race but newcomer Career Girls beat holdover In the Company of Men in per-theatre average by less than $1,000 ($11,662 to $10,777).

1987: Wide openers, wide openers everywhere. Despite six new releases in the multiplexes, The Living Daylights stayed in first with $7.7 million, dropping 30% from its opening take. Stakeout led the openers with a $5.2 million take ($6.5 million in five days) with Masters of the Universe close by with $4.9 million. Few went Back to the Beach ($3.3 million) while even fewer asked Who's That Girl? ($2.6 million) or sought Nadine ($2.2 million). In a matinees only engagement, The Care Bears Adventure in Wonderland signaled the end of the Care Bears boom with $1 million. The only limited release was Happy New Year, a Columbia dump (albeit one that got an Oscar nomination for some pretty good old age makeup) that averaged just $765 per theatre.

Now comment away!
Last edited by Buscemi2 on July 31st, 2017, 8:53 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Down the Rabbit Hole with Buscemi: August 4th Titles

Post by Shrykespeare »

Great debut column, Boosh. Sorry to stick you with Lycan. It's the last thing from Parade Deck we'll probably ever see in the game.

Anyhoo...

God, Conspiracy Theory was 20 years ago? Seems like longer. Holy shit, that movie was bad.
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Re: Down the Rabbit Hole with Buscemi: August 4th Titles

Post by Walleye413 »

Nice column! I'm really torn on Dark Tower. With all the talent behind it I figure 75 million is a safe bet. But this Summer has seen so many "safe bets" underperform. Still, it's an original title and those are doing better than most. You're probably close with your predictions. Now Lycan, that looks like a winner. . .

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Re: Down the Rabbit Hole with Buscemi: August 4th Titles

Post by numbersix »

I think the prospect of The Dark Tower performing well is looking less likely. Response to the traielrs has beena bit muted, and I think it skews too far into fantasy, making it feel like another Jack the giant Slayer or similar.

Also Detroit looks likely to underperform, at least with the numbers it got in limited release this weekend.

I think Wind River will be fine. Audiences know nothing about the shaky history, and Weinstein will likely platform it. With its associations with Siacrio and Hell or High Water, I suspect it'll earn points across the month. I do agree that Step will do well this weekend, though, the trailer played in the cinema last night and everyone shut up and watched it.

Note that the PTA rule changed quite some time ago. PTA from films in previous months still affect new leagues, just like Top 5 positions do, so Lycan will be getting nothing.


My Predictions:
1. The Dark Tower $28 million
2. Dunkirk $16 million
3. Girls Trip $12 million
4. The Emoji Movie $10 million
5. Detroit $9 million



PTA: Wind River, Step, An Inconvenient Sequel, The Dark Tower, Menashe

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Re: Down the Rabbit Hole with Buscemi: August 4th Titles

Post by Buscemi2 »

Hmm, didn't know that.

I guess I'll go with on the PTA end:

5 - Step
4 - Wind River
3 - Menashe
2 - The Dark Tower
1 - it could be anything but I'll say Dunkirk. An Inconvenient Sequel was heavily frontloaded but Paramount is still planning a decent-sized expansion. The first film added 73 theatres in its second week and made $17,615 per theatre ($23,900 adjusted). If it performed similarly, the number to expect would be $7,810 if it got the same number of theatres. However, the first film increased on Saturday and dropped only 4% on Sunday of opening weekend while this one dropped 31% between Friday and Saturday and 50% between Saturday and Sunday. An more likely number would be about $5,800 but I think it will dip to about $3,800 if that expansion estimate holds. If it gets 250-300 theatres, I'd be surprised if it made $1,000 (and such a drop is possible, Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk back in November had a $57,000 PTA opening weekend but about half came on opening day and it died in wide release with a PTA under $1,000 on its second weekend).

Sorry to bore everyone with math and statistics.
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Re: Down the Rabbit Hole with Buscemi: August 4th Titles

Post by undeadmonkey »

I always thought Free Willy 3 had gone straight to VHS....

I've never read The Dark Tower, but it has a pretty rabid following, i really don't understand the logic of trying to make a sequel to the books instead of an adaption of the books...

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Re: Down the Rabbit Hole with Buscemi: August 4th Titles

Post by Buscemi2 »

Not sure if this is a sign of it possibly being wider or if it's the case of a first-time distributor going wild but every theatre near me is getting Detroit this week. This never happens for a variety of reasons but it's odd that zoning restrictions and exclusivity would be thrown out the door just for this particular movie (and half of those theatres will likely just reduce it to one show a day by the second week anyway).

Also, Pirates of the Caribbean is still showing here and The Lion King's being reissued at the AMC for some reason (maybe it's for the new Blu-ray release?).
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Re: Down the Rabbit Hole with Buscemi: August 4th Titles

Post by Buscemi2 »

Theatre counts:

The Dark Tower - 3,451
Kidnap - 2,378
Step - 29
Wind River - 4
Lycan - n/a

Detroit expands to 3,007 theatres while An Inconvenient Sequel goes to 180. Dunkirk joins the 4,000 club with 266 additional theatres (probably drive-ins and small town theatres).

Next week:

Annabelle: Creation - 3,400
The Glass Castle - 1,400
Ingrid Goes West - 3
The Nut Job 2: Nutty by Nature - n/a
the rest of the limiteds - n/a
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Re: Down the Rabbit Hole with Buscemi: August 4th Titles

Post by Shrykespeare »

Only one celebrity birthday this week:

Edward Furlong turned 40 on 8/2 (Yes, the kid from T2 made it to 40... damn, I'm old)
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Re: Down the Rabbit Hole with Buscemi: August 4th Titles

Post by undeadmonkey »

With the terrible reviews, i doubt Dark Tower even hits $20M

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Re: Down the Rabbit Hole with Buscemi: August 4th Titles

Post by Shrykespeare »

Friday Estimates

Dark Tower, $7.7M
Dunkirk, $5M
Emoji Movie, $3.8M
Kidnap, $3.7M
Girls Trip, $3.6M
Detroit, $2.6M
Spider-Man, $2.6M
Atomic Blonde, $2.4M
Planet of the Apes, $1.7M
Despicable Me 3, $1.7M



Weekend Projections:

Dark Tower, $19M
Dunkirk, $17M
Emoji Movie, $13.3M
Girls Trip, $11.5M
Kidnap, $10M
Spider-Man, $8.8M
Atomic Blonde, $8M
Detroit, $6.7M
Planet of the Apes, $5.9M
Despicable Me 3, $5.6M



PTA:
Wind River, $39K
Inconvenient Sequel, $5.6K
Dark Tower, $5.5K
Step, $5K
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Re: Down the Rabbit Hole with Buscemi: August 4th Titles

Post by Buscemi2 »

I wasn't expecting Step to bomb that hard. Looks like it can't break the social documentary slump (opening the same weekend as Detroit's expansion and Kidnap couldn't have helped either).

It also makes me wonder if the documentary market's going to become so depressed at the festivals that Netflix or PBS ends up picking them up by the truckload.
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Re: Down the Rabbit Hole with Buscemi: August 4th Titles

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Kidnap making eight figures? Did NOT see that happening.
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Re: Down the Rabbit Hole with Buscemi: August 4th Titles

Post by Buscemi2 »

I don't think anyone did. Looks like Halle Berry can still bring them in.

And it makes Strangers 2 a potential sleeper for next year (might Aviron schedule this one for the summer instead of Halloween?).
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Re: Down the Rabbit Hole with Buscemi: August 4th Titles

Post by Shrykespeare »

Weekend Estimates

Top 10:
5 points - The Dark Tower, $19.5M
4 points - Dunkirk, $17.6M
3 points - The Emoji Movie, $12.3M
2 points - Girls Trip, $11.4M
1 point - Kidnap, $10.2M
Spider-Man: Homecoming, $8.8M
Atomic Blonde, $8.2M
Detroit, $7.3M
War for the Planet of the Apes, $6.0M
Despicable Me 3, $5.3M



PTA:
5 points - Wind River
4 points - Menashe
3 points - The Dark Tower
2 points - An Inconvenient Sequel
1 point - Step
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