Walleye's Weekly Winners: The Films of 7/28

Mr. Columnist himself presents weekly analysis and tips.

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Walleye's Weekly Winners: The Films of 7/28

Post by Walleye413 »

When did late Summer become such a hotbed of good movies? In recent memory I can think of Guardians of the Galaxy, Straight outta Compton, The Bourne movies plus lesser hits like If I Stay, and Don’t Breathe all being game changers and Studio savers. And this year is no exception. On the heels of Dunkirk last week we have a bevy of new releases all with real potential – including some Oscar hopes. Will any of them be enough to unseat Dunkirk in its second week? Will the Apes continue to drop far too quickly? How will Girls Trip hold up as the only comedy hit of the Summer? Enquiring minds are dying to know!

The biggest hit of the week is probably going to be the worst movie of the bunch. Let’s begin with The Emoji Movie! I am so pumped for this one! Said nobody. And yet, this terrible idea for a movie is going to make a boatload of money. The plot is, eh, I have no idea. Somehow an Emoji wants to be more than just a single thing and its journey messes up the life of the teen owner whose phone it’s in. There hasn’t been a great kids movie since. . . Beauty and the Beast I suppose. All others have been, meh, and so parents will bring their kids to this just for something to go to. It should make 30 million this weekend, and end up close to 90 million when all is said and done. A decent pick, if you missed some of the better options in the game so far. You’ll also get 7 Top points, and a few PTA for your troubles.

Again, that’s not bad, but you’ll have to make some choices. Because Atomic Blonde looks awfully tempting as well. Charlize Theron has been hard to peg in Hollywood. She’s gorgeous, and has some serious acting chops. But I think most of her roles have been ones she hasn’t loved. But she is loving her new role as “The most badass woman in the world”. Mad Max rebooted her career and she took it straight to this gonzo looking spy thriller where she’s the new Jason Bourne, only tougher. “Original” movies have been the only breakouts of the Summer so Atomic Blonde has potential. The real question is, will it be Baby Driver or Ghost in the Shell. I’m torn on this – but I think it’s going to fall a little short of breaking out. For a few more bucks you can get the Emoji Movie. You’ll feel bad for it, but it’s the safer choice. Atomic Blonde will hit 22 million, and get 60 million total. 3 Top 5 points and maybe a PTA point as well.

And bring on the Oscar hopefuls. Dunkirk has started the Oscar conversation early this year (and The Big Sick, for that matter.) Detroit is hoping for the same type of reaction and will try to build some momentum by opening in just a few screens this weekend before going wide next weekend. We all know Kathryn Bigelow’s story as one of the best directors working today – and the only Female director to win an Oscar. For her latest picture she takes the story of the race riots in Detroit in 1967 and the murder of 3 young African American men as part of that. It’s a charged time in America for such a movie to come out, which is perhaps the point. 1967 doesn’t seem so far away. But do people really want to go to the movies to be reminded about the desperate need for racial reconciliation in America? I’m guessing no. Detroit will do well, but it won’t be Straight Outta Compton. This week it will probably win the PTA battle but then next week a wide expansion will get you into the low teens, maybe 35 million total. There’s only room for one Studio Oscar contender in Summer and Dunkirk got there first.

Vying for PTA leftovers are several other hopefuls. From the Land of the Moon is a French movie starring Marion Cotillard (for the first time in 4 years back in her native language) about a woman stuck in a loveless marriage following WWII. It was nominated for several awards in France and has made a fair amount of money on the other side of the pond, so there’s a lot of potential in this one. But the drawbacks: The IMDB rating is low for a PTA only gem, and with all the competitions this week you’ll only get 2-3 PTA points at most. But if you’re a Cotillard fan (and, seriously, who isn’t) you should try to find this movie when it hits your local Cineplex. (Unless Chien tells us otherwise.)

Next we have Menashe a movie about Hasididc Jews filmed entirely in Yiddish. Bet you don’t see that very often! If you’ve read any of Chaim Potok (The Chosen, Asher Lev, The Promise) you know there is a rich and fascinating world in the Hasidic Jew community of New York. But this movie doesn’t seem to do justice to that world. It’s filmed in low-documentary style, and the reviews reflect it. It has a 6 IMDB rating, and for the 1-2 PTA points you’ll get, Menashe is a film rarity you’ll want to keep off your slates

And last, but certainly not least, we’ve got another movie sequel hoping to avoid the rash of blah sequelitis that has affected so many other films. This one has a shot. An Inconvenient Sequel is Al Gore’s follow up to his improbable movie hit about Global Climate Change. I’m not sure which is harder to believe – that we now have two “Big” documentaries about Climate Change, or that there are people who still think Climate Change is a hoax. Had this movie come out right after the Paris Accords I think it actually would have done better. As it stands, the disaster that is Washington DC politics right now has had several dozen other crisis’ since then, so this important message may get a little lost at the cinema. Much like Detroit this is a movie intended to go wide, but I think they’re wisely opting for a small theatre count release to try and build some hype. It’s between this and Detroit for the PTA crown then this week, and I think Detroit will win. That leaves 4 PTA points for this, and your guess is as good as mine as to what happens from there. For $5 in the game, you can do better. But see the movie. Seriously people, there is no Plan(et) B. Interstellar needs to remain a fictional movie! (So that we don’t have to watch it again.)

That’s it. Next week Boosh takes a swing at the true August openers. Will he find a diamond in the rough? (Dark Tower, we’re looking at you.)

Top 5
Dunkirk (That’s right, it’s hardly dropping, I’m calling it.)
The Emoji Movie
Atomic Blonde
Girls Trip
Spiderman

PTA
Detroit
An Inconvenient Sequel
Dunkirk
Atomic Blonde
For the Land of the Moon

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Re: Walleye's Weekly Winners: The Films of 7/28

Post by Buscemi2 »

An Inconvenient Sequel is basically getting dumped by Paramount. After a year of flops, Paramount has more or less killed plans to go wide with it and in addition, reviews have basically said it's not as good as the first (and I don't know if they will release a cut different from the Sundance premiere including updates). Also, documentaries lately haven't been doing well. This would have been better off premiering on Netflix shortly after its premiere.

I agree with Detroit winning the PTA title but I think Menashe takes second. Numbers in New York will be very strong on this one.

As for wide releases, I don't like either one. The Emoji Movie reminds me too much of Smurfs: The Lost Village, which Sony couldn't even pay children to see (to be fair, it was released in a crowded market) while Atomic Blonde seems to going for a juvenile male audience raised on Mark Millar comics and violent video games (until last week, I wasn't even convinced that it would sell to women) that need a parent to get in. Expect a lot of tickets bought for Dunkirk or Valerian (I'm thinking this holds better than expected despite the B- Cinemascore) followed by sneak ins to this one.
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Re: Walleye's Weekly Winners: The Films of 7/28

Post by Buscemi2 »

Theatre counts:

The Emoji Movie - 4,069
Atomic Blonde - 3,304
Detroit - 20 (looks like it might not win the PTA title this week)
An Inconvenient Sequel - 4
Brigsby Bear (did we put this in the game?) - 3
Menashe - 3 (count taken from FilmJerk)
From the Land of the Moon - 2

Meanwhile, has anyone been reading the reviews for The Emoji Movie (which had its embargo lifted earlier today)? You'll get your daily dose of laughs reading them.
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Re: Walleye's Weekly Winners: The Films of 7/28

Post by Spectre »

I have been reading those reviews... glorious. The Mummy might lose its "Worst 4K+ Theater OW Ever" title before the summer is even over. :lol:

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Re: Walleye's Weekly Winners: The Films of 7/28

Post by Buscemi2 »

And to think that Sony thought it would save the film division. Could we see a Columbia/Paramount/Open Road mega-merger coming?
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Re: Walleye's Weekly Winners: The Films of 7/28

Post by Shrykespeare »

Theater counts ... oh, wait, someone did that already.


Celebrity birthdays:

Matt LeBlanc turned 50 on 7/25 (I won't be there for him)
Jason Statham turned 50 on 7/26 (Vin, Jason AND Arnold all in the same month? Great month for muscly guys!)
Jonathan Rhys-Meyers turned 40 on 7/27 (he's Henry VIII, he is)
Genesis Rodriguez turns 30 on 7/29 (rrowr)
Arnold Schwarzenegger turns 70 on 7/30 (He'll be back... to pick up his Lipitor prescription)
William Atherton turns 70 on 7/30 (It's true... this man STILL has no dick)
Jamie Pressley turns 40 on 7/30 (she was so delightfully bitchy in My Name is Earl)


I counted. I've seen 27 Schwarzenegger movies in my lifetime. Damn, that's a lot.
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Re: Walleye's Weekly Winners: The Films of 7/28

Post by Buscemi2 »

I actually watched one of Schwarzenegger's earliest roles a couple nights ago: Scavenger Hunt. He's only in a few minutes but his scene is pretty amusing.

It's not a great movie but it's a fast moving two hours and the Blu-ray's not bad.
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Re: Walleye's Weekly Winners: The Films of 7/28

Post by numbersix »

Wow, those emoji reviews. Still, it's a kids film so it's mildly immune. Dunkirk and Girls Trip are going to hold well. Atomic Blonde is a Focus release, so I'd be surprised if it made much more than 20m this weekend.

As for PTA, I didn't realise Detroit is out, and even with 20 screens it'll kick ass. Menashe and Gore II: Gore Boogaloo will also do well.

Top 5
1.The Emoji Movie - 28m
2. Dunkirk - 27m
3.Atomic Blonde - 20m
4.Girls Trip - 19m
5.Spiderman - 11m

PTA: Detroit, An Inconvenient Sequel, Dunkirk, Menashe, Emoji

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Re: Walleye's Weekly Winners: The Films of 7/28

Post by Shrykespeare »

Friday Estimates

The Emoji Movie, $10M
Dunkirk, $8M
Atomic Blonde, $7.1M
Girls Trip, $6.2M
Spider-Man, $3.9M
Planet of the Apes, $3M
Despicable Me 3, $2.3M
Valerian, $1.8M
Baby Driver, $1.2M
Wonder Woman, $1M



Projections:

Dunkirk, $28M
Emoji Movie, $27.1M
Girls Trip, $19.3M
Atomic Blonde, $17.5M
Spider-Man, $13.5M
Planet of the Apes, $10.3M
Despicable Me 3, $7.9M
Valerian, $6.2M
Baby Driver, $4.1M
Wonder Woman, $3.6M
Big Sick, $3.3M


It looks like Wonder Woman will definitely crack $400M. Despicable Me 3 will top $250M. Spider-Man will make it to $300M. Baby Driver still has a shot at blockbuster status.


PTA:
An Inconvenient Sequel, $43K
Detroit, $18K
Dunkirk, $7K
Girls Trip, $7K
Emoji Movie, $6K
Happy 60th birthday Jet Li! (4/26/23)

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Re: Walleye's Weekly Winners: The Films of 7/28

Post by Buscemi2 »

I like that Girls Trip hold. Not so much Valerian.

And though that $43,000 number on An Inconvenient Sequel looks good at first glance, the first one had a $70,000 PTA (over $95,000 adjusted to current dollars) opening weekend. So basically, it's selling less than half the tickets at higher prices. Next week's expansion will likely just be to top 20 markets instead of wide.
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Re: Walleye's Weekly Winners: The Films of 7/28

Post by Shrykespeare »

Weekend Estimates

Top 10:
5 points - Dunkirk, $28.1M
4 points - The Emoji Movie, $25.6M
3 points - Girls Trip, $20.1M
2 points - Atomic Blonde, $18.6M
1 point - Spider-Man: Homecoming, $13.4M
War for the Planet of the Apes, $10.4M
Despicable Me 3, $7.7M
Valerian and the Land of a Thousand Planets, $6.8M
Baby Driver, $4.0M
Wonder Woman, $3.5M



PTA:
5 points - An Inconvenient Sequel: Truth to Power
4 points - Menashe
3 points - Detroit
2 points - Girls Trip
1 point - Dunkirk


Boy, am I glad I switched from Menashe to Land of the Moon in the QD. :oops:
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Re: Walleye's Weekly Winners: The Films of 7/28

Post by Buscemi2 »

You have to trust that A24 brand loyalty, Shryke.
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Re: Walleye's Weekly Winners: The Films of 7/28

Post by Shrykespeare »

Buscemi2 wrote:You have to trust that A24 brand loyalty, Shryke.
Yeah. Wouldn't have saved me anyway. I'm going from from A to B regardless.
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Re: Walleye's Weekly Winners: The Films of 7/28

Post by Shrykespeare »

Weekend Actuals

Top 10:
5 points - Dunkirk, $26.6M
4 points - The Emoji Movie, $24.5M
3 points - Girls Trip, $19.6M
2 points - Atomic Blonde, $18.3M
1 point - Spider-Man: Homecoming, $13.3M
War for the Planet of the Apes, $10.5M
Despicable Me 3, $7.6M
Valerian and the Land of a Thousand Planets, $6.4M
Baby Driver, $4.0M
Wonder Woman, $3.3M



PTA:
5 points - An Inconvenient Sequel: Truth to Power, $31,206
4 points - Menashe, $20,693
3 points - Detroit, $17,510
2 points - Girls Trip, $7,419
1 point - Dunkirk, %7,100

From the Land of the Moon - $2,237
Happy 60th birthday Jet Li! (4/26/23)

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