Look! An Undead Movie Column: New Releases of 7/21/17

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Look! An Undead Movie Column: New Releases of 7/21/17

Post by undeadmonkey »

Even though it seemed like most people liked War for the planet of the Apes and it has the highest RT score out of the whole trilogy, it could not rise above the doldrums of the sequel-hating summer of 2017, opening almost $20M less than it's predecessor. The other wide opener barely made a splash and The Big Sick did decent if not overly great.

There's been one single sequel this summer that has outperformed it's predecessor and you'd have to look all the way back to the beginning of May to find it. On the other hand, this year has been exceptionally kind to 'original' films. I use the term lightly, as Wonder Woman and Spiderman aren't really originals, but they are not sequels. So you'd think that bodes well for our new releases this weekend but when's the last time 2 big budget original films have come out in one weekend? Will there be room for both to breath or will the drums of doom continue beating for the theatrical window...


There's five hundred dollars in there. And the wallet's worth more than that.

First up, we have Dunkirk (Warner Bros). Based on the true story. Allied soldiers from Belgium, the British Empire and France are surrounded by the German army and evacuated during a fierce battle in World War II..


It's been 3 years since the last Nolan movie and i'm sure the fanboys are eagerly awaiting their next glimpse into a director who can do no wrong in their eyes. The reviews have been (can i say it?) stellar, Nolans highest RT score ever, surpassing even The Dark Knight. On the other hand, the marketing just hasn't been as enticing as all of his other work. Be it the fault of the story matter or a different approach. There just hasn't been this immediacy and spectacle to the marketing material that has made this a must see event film.


I’ll predict a $45M OW and $160M overall.

Image


What anyone does when a prowler comes around... call the police.

Next we have Girls Trip (Universal). Directed by Malcolm D. Lee, its about four lifelong friends who travel to New Orleans for the annual Essence Festival. Sisterhoods are rekindled, wild sides are rediscovered, and there's enough dancing, drinking, brawling, and romancing to make the Big Easy blush. Another Hangover type movie, will this movie succeed where so many have failed, even this year alone. The reviews have been kind, 89% on RT, compare to Snatched 35%, Rough Night 48%, The House 19%, Baywatch 19%. Is that the only parameter needed to set it apart? I've seen very little marketing but i guess i'm not the target audience either.


I predict an opening of $22M with a total of $55M.


Image

You know what I think? I think you're not such an honest person. Because I've followed you for eight weeks now and I never once saw you order anything but a fucking seabreeze!

The other wide opener is a little film called Valerian and the City of a Thousand Planets (STX). Directed by Luc Besson, In the 28th century, Valerian (Dane DeHaan) and Laureline (Cara Delevingne) are a team of special operatives charged with maintaining order throughout the human territories. Under assignment from the Minister of Defense, the two embark on a mission to the astonishing city of Alpha-an ever-expanding metropolis where species from all over the universe have converged over centuries to share knowledge, intelligence and cultures with each other. There is a mystery at the center of Alpha, a dark force which threatens the peaceful existence of the City of a Thousand Planets, and Valerian and Laureline must race to identify the marauding menace and safeguard not just Alpha, but the future of the universe.

Reviews have been mixed, praising the visual components, critiquing the casting. It looks to be another Warcraft situation, with weak domestic grosses but a decent showing in the recent of the world. Unfortunately for us, only domestic grosses count.

I predict an opening of $21M with a total of $45M

Image


Oh, no. No, see-see, this is a really shit idea. You know why? Because it's really obviously a shit idea. So, we're just gonna drive in the tunnel full of fuckin' smashed cars and broken glass. It's really fuckin' obviously a shit idea!

Opening in limited release are The Gracefield Incident and The Midwife, Gracefield wont get you much of anything. The Midwife has an ok IMDb score and will probably get you a few PTA points before being forgotten by next week.




Quotes Game: This time all quotes are from Cillian Murphy, name character and movie.

My predictions for the weekend of March 31 -April 2, 2017:


1. Dunkirk $45M
2. War for the Planet of the Apes $23M
3. Girls Trip $22M
4. Valerian $21M
5. Spiderman Homecoming $20M


Next week seems like the beginning of the end for Summer 2017 Hopefully Atomic Blonde can added some much needed boost to my Full Year slate, and The Emoji Movie hopes to capitalize on our feelins and inability to express our self with words.

Don't shoot me, please. We're starving. We haven't eaten.

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Re: Look! An Undead Movie Column: New Releases of 7/21/17

Post by Buscemi »

I think Girls Trip's really going to break out. Critics have enjoyed it and there hasn't been a truly feel-good comedy this summer. I think it can hit at least $30 million opening weekend (I'm guessing $32 million) and inch to nearly $100 million by the time it ends.

I'm still not buying into Dunkirk. IMAX sales have been strong but I feel it won't do anything outside of IMAX or 70mm. Hardcore Nolan fans will see it but other than them, who is the audience in the US outside of them? In addition, I think the short run time hurts it (especially with Girls Trip and Valerian both being over two hours and audiences wanting their money's worth). I'm going with a $28 million weekend and a $85 million finish.

Valerian's opening weekend looks about right but I think it will be more of a legs film despite mixed critical word. People like action and Besson's offerings typical play decent to very well domestically. I think it finishes with around $70 million, especially with a weak August.
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Re: Look! An Undead Movie Column: New Releases of 7/21/17

Post by numbersix »

Dunkirk will do just fine. Nolan fanboys are in the millions, and the war aspect will appeal to an older audience starved of mainstream films this summer. It'll certainly have a hold, particularly with the amazing reviews, some saying it's Nolan's best.

Not sure how Girls Trip will land, but it seems 20m+ is on the cards. As for Valerian, I have less hopes for that. If reviews and WOM was amazing, then maybe, but it's not getting that and its leads don't have the charisma to win audiences over.

1. Dunkirk - $43M
2. War for the Planet of the Apes - $24M
3. Girls Trip - $23M
4. Spiderman Homecoming - $21M
5. Valerian - $17M

PTA: Dunkirk, Girls, Apes, Lady Macbeth, Midwife

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Re: Look! An Undead Movie Column: New Releases of 7/21/17

Post by Spectre »

I think you're under on both Girls' Trip and Dunkirk. People have been paying for originals/quality lately and these are both. Plus tracking has been nearly worthless lately so I've been disregarding it for the most part and going off of feel. Both feel like they'll be big.

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Re: Look! An Undead Movie Column: New Releases of 7/21/17

Post by Buscemi »

I think we're overestimating Nolan's appeal. There's a considerable amount of hate for him on the Internet (the same kinds of people who will crucify you if you say anything negative, even if it's constructive criticism, about David Fincher, one of the few directors who can open a film). In addition, Interstellar ended up making less than Gravity or The Martian (maybe had McConaughey turned out to be Space Jesus, it would have made another $50 million domestic) and when Warner Bros. let him produce a movie for someone else, the result was Transcendence, a film not even the most Nolan-obsessed bothered with (while Steven Spielberg can sell almost anything, no matter how lame it sounds).

In addition, can you sell a film with no American appeal and the lead being Cillian Murphy (an actor who hasn't been relevant since he pulled out of Once to do Sunshine and entered Adrien Brody land) outside the big cities? Lionsgate tried to sell The Big Sick based on reviews to a wide audience and few showed up last weekend. Sure, they are different movies but you have to have both reviews and appeal to both a more knowledge audience and the middle American, "it's all about me" crowd. A story about English soldiers in France might play in New York or California but it won't play in Texas or Michigan or Pennsylvania (Illinois, maybe, as that's the United States of Nolan).

And if we read reviews and want originality, why did Beauty and the Beast make over $500 million? And why did The Boss Baby do so well? And why are the year's eight biggest films all based on previous media? Nothing's changed. It's the same that it's been.
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Re: Look! An Undead Movie Column: New Releases of 7/21/17

Post by Spectre »

Those same 8 films are also all fresh on RT. People are fleeing garbage to quality. They're being selective with their dollars. That's why you're seeing these big budget 20% RT rehashes like Transformers, Pirates, Mummy, etc. bomb hard. Originality helps but it's not the driving force. The driving force is quality. Period. Going to a theater is expensive for a lot of people; they want to be sure what they're seeing is worth the price of admission.

You say there's no American appeal to Dunkirk because it happened before American involvement in the war but there's plenty of appeal. The underlying themes of bravery, heroism, triumph over odds, etc. are what appeals to people. Most Americans aren't going to see the trailer and say "Oh well the Battle of Dunkirk took place before American involvement in the war so I'm not interested." That is WAY overthinking it. Heck, I don't even know if most Americans would be able to tell you the war it took place in. Most people will see a critically acclaimed war film with a massive IMDb/RT rating that's being hailed as an epic "experience" movie from a top director.

What have adults had to see this year that's even remotely close to this in scope and quality? There's been plenty of big budget superheroes, animation, fantasy, etc. But nothing like Dunkirk. They'll come out to see it. Dunkirk is more likely to double your forecast for it than it is to fall short.

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Re: Look! An Undead Movie Column: New Releases of 7/21/17

Post by Buscemi »

Rotten Tomatoes is a marketing tool, not a source of quality. It's a flawed system exploited by the studios (notice that it almost always punishes smaller films because they don't have enough reviews to get that "Certified Fresh" emblem?) to make things seem better than they really are. Metacritic is far more accurate and the typical moviegoer never reads reviews or gives a shit what The New York Times or Indiewire thinks.

You're forgetting the insane amount of xenophobia in the US. With the exception of Harry Potter, foreign-appealed films only sell to a small demographic. The only way it would make its money back in the US is if it were like Argo, threw out the facts, and became a mockery of the truth with Mark Wahlberg and Bradley Cooper bailing everyone out.

And most of the non-Nolan/70mm target audience is of the "only see one movie a year" type and they're probably watching Fox News or CBS instead. And there have been plenty of films with older appeal this year and some of them have made decent money. You're just lucky to see them get more than a few hundred theatres.
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Re: Look! An Undead Movie Column: New Releases of 7/21/17

Post by transformers2 »

Buscemi wrote:Rotten Tomatoes is a marketing tool, not a source of quality. It's a flawed system exploited by the studios (notice that it almost always punishes smaller films because they don't have enough reviews to get that "Certified Fresh" emblem?) to make things seem better than they really are. Metacritic is far more accurate and the typical moviegoer never reads reviews or gives a shit what The New York Times or Indiewire thinks.

You're forgetting the insane amount of xenophobia in the US
. With the exception of Harry Potter, foreign-appealed films only sell to a small demographic. The only way it would make its money back in the US is if it were like Argo, threw out the facts, and became a mockery of the truth with Mark Wahlberg and Bradley Cooper bailing everyone out.

And most of the non-Nolan/70mm target audience is of the "only see one movie a year" type and they're probably watching Fox News or CBS instead. And there have been plenty of films with older appeal this year and some of them have made decent money. You're just lucky to see them get more than a few hundred theatres.
Yes because lord knows xenophobes are going to be horrified by watching a movie about brave, heroic white people.
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Re: Look! An Undead Movie Column: New Releases of 7/21/17

Post by Buscemi »

Xenophobes hate anyone who's not exactly like them. Even the English. How do you explain the success of American Sniper and the Purge movies?

There's also the case of ignorance. If it didn't happen to them, they feel it's not worth learning about. History classes only ever focus on the American side of things (and a lot of it is wrong all because some people in Texas tell us what to think), the news maybe spends a minute on world events (Remember the Arab Spring? You'd be lucky to in the US?), and if you have an accent that's not native, you become a target. With English-set movies, the breakouts are Harry Potter, a few Richard Curtis films, and that's kind of it.
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Re: Look! An Undead Movie Column: New Releases of 7/21/17

Post by numbersix »

Also, Murphy isn't the lead in Dunkirk. It's an ensemble piece, also featuring Kenneth Branagh, Mark Rylance, and Tom Hardy. And Murphy's profile has been boosted considerably on the back of Peaky Blinders.

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Re: Look! An Undead Movie Column: New Releases of 7/21/17

Post by Shrykespeare »

Theater counts:

Dunkirk - 3,720
Valerian - 3,553
Girls Trip - 2,591
The Midwife - 3 (FJ)
The Gracefield Incident - n/a

According to FilmJerk, Santoalla is releasing in one theater this weekend.


Next week:

Emoji Movie - 3,700
Atomic Blonde - 3,200
Inconvenient Sequel - 4
From the Land of the Moon - 2



Celebrity milestone birthdays:

Vin Diesel turned 50 on 7/18 (amazing in 15 years he'll be on Medicare, the shape he's in)
Kelly Reilly turned 40 on 7/18 (loved her in Holmes)
Jon Lovitz turns 60 on 7/21 (still givin' the wife the ol' pickle tickle)
Rhys Ifans turns 50 on 7/22 (... I got nothin')
Albert Brooks turns 70 on 7/23 (did you know his first ever movie was Taxi Driver?)
Philip Seymour Hoffman would have turned 50 on 7/23 (what... a ... waste)
Happy 60th birthday Jet Li! (4/26/23)

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Re: Look! An Undead Movie Column: New Releases of 7/21/17

Post by transformers2 »

Buscemi wrote:Xenophobes hate anyone who's not exactly like them. Even the English. How do you explain the success of American Sniper and the Purge movies?
While the latter was obviously, beloved by America's conservative population, both of those films succeeded because they were mass-appealing films. American Sniper was a contemporary war film about a celebrated solider (whether Chris Kyle is worth celebrating is a whole other debate...) that lost his life tragically and The Purge was a horror flick with a distinct, interesting premise. Call me crazy, but I don't think people from either side of the aisle can single-handily make something a megahit.
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Re: Look! An Undead Movie Column: New Releases of 7/21/17

Post by Shrykespeare »

Friday Estimates

Dunkirk, $19.8M
Girls Trip, $11.7M
Valerian, $6.5M
Spider-Man, $6.3M
Planet of the Apes, $5.9M
Despicable Me 3, $3.8M
Baby Driver, $1.7M
Big Sick, $1.4M
Wonder Woman, $1.3M




Weekend Projections:

Dunkirk, $50.5M
Girls Trip, $30M
Spider-Man, $20.6M
Planet of the Apes, $20.4M
Valerian, $16.5M
Despicable Me 3, $11.8M
Baby Driver, $5.6M
Big Sick, $4.3M
Wonder Woman, $4.2M
Wish Upon, $2.4M
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Re: Look! An Undead Movie Column: New Releases of 7/21/17

Post by Shrykespeare »

Weekend Estimates

Top 10:
5 points - Dunkirk, $50.5M
4 points - Girls Trip, $30.4M
3 points - Spider-Man: Homecoming, $22.0M
2 points - War for the Planet of the Apes, $20.4M
1 point - Valerian and the Land of a Thousand Planets, 17.0M
Despicable Me 3, $12.7M
Baby Driver, $6.0M
The Big Sick, $5.0M
Wonder Woman, $4.6M
Wish Upon, $2.4M


PTA:
5 points - Dunkirk
4 points - Girls Trip
3 points - The Midwife
2 points - Spider-Man: Homecoming
1 point - War for the Planet of the Apes



Wonder Woman has officially passed Guardians of the Galaxy 2 for biggest film of the year so far.

And with Apes 3 now tanking right after Pirates 5 tanked, I am officially fucked.
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Re: Look! An Undead Movie Column: New Releases of 7/21/17

Post by Shrykespeare »

Weekend Actuals

Top 10:
5 points - Dunkirk, $50.5M
4 points - Girls Trip, $31.2M
3 points - Spider-Man: Homecoming, $22.2M
2 points - War for the Planet of the Apes, $20.9M
1 point - Valerian and the Land of a Thousand Planets, 17.0M
Despicable Me 3, $13.0M
Baby Driver, $6.1M
The Big Sick, $5.0M
Wonder Woman, $4.6M
Wish Upon, $2.5M


PTA:
5 points - Dunkirk, $13,579
4 points - Girls Trip, $12,042
3 points - The Midwife, $7,114
2 points - Spider-Man: Homecoming, $5,363
1 point - War for the Planet of the Apes, $5,094

Gracefield Incident didn't report. Santoalla debuted in one theater and earned $1,206 for the weekend.

Wonder Woman has officially passed Guardians of the Galaxy 2 for biggest film of the year so far.

And with Apes 3 now tanking right after Pirates 5 tanked, I am officially fucked.[/quote]
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