SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 7/14
Posted: July 12th, 2017, 3:49 am
The summer is looking up. Despite failures of a bunch of tired franchise films, it looks like Marvel and DC are punching their way through to the masses, with Wonder Woman holding strong (and possibly being the biggest film of the Summer) and now Marvel-Man: Homecoming opening to an impressive $117m. But don’t rejoice, dear reader, for this week brings dark, ominous offerings.
Try saying this title quickly 3 times when you’re drunk: War for the Planet of the Apes (Fox) is the final part of the revived series (until its success spawns another few sequels, that is) that have had an impressive run both in box office and with the critics. And this latest film should be no different. Dealing with Caesar’s attempts to save his clan of apes, it features Woody Harrelson as the Kurtz-like military leader.
The main draw of this film is the apparent completion of the trilogy. With Dawn improving on Rise’s figures, you would expect to see this do even better, now that good reviews and WOM are spreading. But not so fast, monkey-boy. Despite being in 3D, this film is up against fiercer competition than its predecessors, namely Weekend #2 for Spidey, and next weekend seeing Nolan and war fans flocking to Dunkirk. So its legs may be more Capuchin than gorilla. Still, expect it to open somewhere between the first two films, say about $60m, and hold for at least $160m. Is it worth it? In BO it’s going to be 25, 29, or 34 bucks, so it’s certainly tempting to grab it in your June leagues. In Ultimate expect 11 T5, 5 PTA, and a strong IMDB score. That’s solid for $24 or $31, especially if August’s fare is weak. While this won’t anchor your slate, if you can squeeze it in then I would certainly recommend it.
More darkness descends in Wish Upon (Broad Green), a horror about a teen who is given a box that grants her wishes, but with a horrible price. Joey King and Ryan Philippe star in what may be Broad Green’s widest release to date. Audiences have been starved of supernatural horror this season, but that may not be enough for this indie distributor, especially when this is more generic fare than “elevated” films like The Witch. Best case is for this film to open at about $8m and close at around $22. That’s not great for $5/6 in BO and ultimate, so unless you think it’s the next Insidious, I would wish for something else.
And finally, I’m saving the darkest for last. Lady Macbeth (Roadside Attractions) was made entirely through public funding, namely the low-budget UK scheme called iFeatures, which has produced many films that mostly have ended up as expensive CVs for new film-makers. Until this film came along. Since its appearance in Toronto last year, it has been receiving rave reviews, its lead Florence Pugh being labelled a future star, and its performance beating expectations in Europe (where it has made nearly $3m so far from limited releases).
It’s the saviour of low-budget film-making this side of the pond, and its Shakespeare connection will intrigue an arthouse audience. In reality, it’s an adaptation of a Russian book which puts a Lady Macbeth-like character in a different scenario, namely as the bride of an arranged marriage who finds a lover and plots to take over the land. Which involves all sorts of dark, nasty murder. If Roadside handle this film well (opening in a handful of theatres, expanding fully), it could be a PTA goldmine. So watch the theatre count, and then seriously consider adding this to your Ultimate slate for $3/$4.
Also, just in case you’re wondering about The Midwife, it has been moved to next weekend. She was probably scared off by warring apes, demon boxes, and psychos from Northern England.
My predictions for the weekend
1. War for the Planet of the Apes - $60m
2. Spider-Man: Homecoming - $55m
3. Despicable Me 3- $18m
4. Wish Upon - $7.5m
5. Wonder Woman/The Big Sick - $7m
PTA: Lady Macbeth, WFTPOTA, Spidey, A Ghost Story, Despicable Me
Next week, UDM takes a look at not one, but 3 wildcard wide releases, Nolan’s WWII drama Dunkirk, oestrogen-fuelled comedy Girls Trip, and the $185m indie sci-fi Valerian. He’ll also find out what The Midwife was so afraid of, and waste words on The Gracefield Incident.
Try saying this title quickly 3 times when you’re drunk: War for the Planet of the Apes (Fox) is the final part of the revived series (until its success spawns another few sequels, that is) that have had an impressive run both in box office and with the critics. And this latest film should be no different. Dealing with Caesar’s attempts to save his clan of apes, it features Woody Harrelson as the Kurtz-like military leader.
The main draw of this film is the apparent completion of the trilogy. With Dawn improving on Rise’s figures, you would expect to see this do even better, now that good reviews and WOM are spreading. But not so fast, monkey-boy. Despite being in 3D, this film is up against fiercer competition than its predecessors, namely Weekend #2 for Spidey, and next weekend seeing Nolan and war fans flocking to Dunkirk. So its legs may be more Capuchin than gorilla. Still, expect it to open somewhere between the first two films, say about $60m, and hold for at least $160m. Is it worth it? In BO it’s going to be 25, 29, or 34 bucks, so it’s certainly tempting to grab it in your June leagues. In Ultimate expect 11 T5, 5 PTA, and a strong IMDB score. That’s solid for $24 or $31, especially if August’s fare is weak. While this won’t anchor your slate, if you can squeeze it in then I would certainly recommend it.
More darkness descends in Wish Upon (Broad Green), a horror about a teen who is given a box that grants her wishes, but with a horrible price. Joey King and Ryan Philippe star in what may be Broad Green’s widest release to date. Audiences have been starved of supernatural horror this season, but that may not be enough for this indie distributor, especially when this is more generic fare than “elevated” films like The Witch. Best case is for this film to open at about $8m and close at around $22. That’s not great for $5/6 in BO and ultimate, so unless you think it’s the next Insidious, I would wish for something else.
And finally, I’m saving the darkest for last. Lady Macbeth (Roadside Attractions) was made entirely through public funding, namely the low-budget UK scheme called iFeatures, which has produced many films that mostly have ended up as expensive CVs for new film-makers. Until this film came along. Since its appearance in Toronto last year, it has been receiving rave reviews, its lead Florence Pugh being labelled a future star, and its performance beating expectations in Europe (where it has made nearly $3m so far from limited releases).
It’s the saviour of low-budget film-making this side of the pond, and its Shakespeare connection will intrigue an arthouse audience. In reality, it’s an adaptation of a Russian book which puts a Lady Macbeth-like character in a different scenario, namely as the bride of an arranged marriage who finds a lover and plots to take over the land. Which involves all sorts of dark, nasty murder. If Roadside handle this film well (opening in a handful of theatres, expanding fully), it could be a PTA goldmine. So watch the theatre count, and then seriously consider adding this to your Ultimate slate for $3/$4.
Also, just in case you’re wondering about The Midwife, it has been moved to next weekend. She was probably scared off by warring apes, demon boxes, and psychos from Northern England.
My predictions for the weekend
1. War for the Planet of the Apes - $60m
2. Spider-Man: Homecoming - $55m
3. Despicable Me 3- $18m
4. Wish Upon - $7.5m
5. Wonder Woman/The Big Sick - $7m
PTA: Lady Macbeth, WFTPOTA, Spidey, A Ghost Story, Despicable Me
Next week, UDM takes a look at not one, but 3 wildcard wide releases, Nolan’s WWII drama Dunkirk, oestrogen-fuelled comedy Girls Trip, and the $185m indie sci-fi Valerian. He’ll also find out what The Midwife was so afraid of, and waste words on The Gracefield Incident.