SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 7/7

Mr. Columnist himself presents weekly analysis and tips.

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SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 7/7

Post by Shrykespeare »

Last weekend, Despicable Me 3 zoomed to a decent if not overly impressive OW, easily taking first place with over $72M in its first three days. Overachieving thanks to great WOM and positive reviews was Baby Driver, which zoomed to almost $30 in its 5-day weekend thanks to a stellar cast and a great soundtrack. Transformers, Wonder Woman and Cars 3 rounded out the Top 5, while The House became the third big-budget comedy to utterly tank this summer. In PTA, The Big Sick took top honors for the second straight week.

While we're all coming down from our Fourth of July holiday, we can contemplate this weekend's films... not that there are that many. I've read that Superpowerless has been bumped to October, and I can find nothing on the release of Santoalla (which is not to say these films won't be in theaters this weekend, but I'm betting not). So, that leaves me with a whopping TWO films to talk about. I got off easy. Yay me.

Coming this weekend is Spider-Man: Homecoming, the sixth Spider-Man film to hit theaters in the past sixteen years, and with a third guy playing the famous Marvel webslinger. Following in the footsteps of Tobey Maguire and Andrew Garfield is Tom Holland, who made his well-received debut as Peter Parker/Spidey in last year's Captain America: Civil War. Just to remind viewers that this film still takes place within the vast Marvel Universe (and, more specifically, The Avengers), Robert Downey Jr. reprises his role as Tony Stark. Marisa Tomei also returns as Aunt May (still can't get over the idea of a HOT Aunt May, it's kind of blowing my mind).

Anyway, most superhero films are only as good as its villain, and Homecoming will feature a villain heretofore unused in the Spidey canon of films... The Vulture. Played by Michael Keaton, The Vulture is a super-villain who crafts a flight suit from Chitauri technology and uses it to cause general mayhem while Peter is just trying to get through high school unscathed. (Yes, Mary Jane Watson will also appear, in the form of Zendaya.)

While this reboot of a reboot has engendered a lot of eye-rolling from moviegoers in general, being that Spidey seems to change actors more regularly than Doctor Who, Homecoming seems to be impressing critics, which is always a plus in this genre (see Wonder Woman). It seems to have the right mix of humor and action, and if I'm being honest, it seems like the last movie of the summer that appeals to the widest possible audience.

With a release platform of 4,000 theaters, I fully expect Homecoming to easily top nine figures in its first three days. I envision 14 Top 5 points, ten PTA, an OW of $110M and $330M overall. It's the most expensive film in the July season (obvi), but that's because no other film coming out will come close to delivering these kinds of numbers.




Wow! Half done already!

Debuting in three theaters this weekend is A Ghost Story. In this odd little film, Casey Affleck plays a dead husband who returns as a white-sheeted ghost (with the holes cut in it and everything) to visit his grief-stricken wife (Rooney Mara). Unfortunately, there's no Whoopi Goldberg around to help him communicate with his love, so he's forced to stand by and watch while his wife slowly slips away. Obviously, this film is going for deep DEEP poignancy, and that can often translate to PTA points. With an RT score of 84%, I have no reason to believe this film can't deliver in that category.

At $4, there are certainly a lot worse choices you can make, given the film's 7.6 Rating (which should only drop a couple of tenths after release date). It's tough to pick indie winners amongst the slew of blockbusters, but I would recommend this title.




1. Spider-Man: Homecoming, $110M
2. Despicable Me 3, $33M
3. Baby Driver, $15M
4. Wonder Woman, $10M
5. Transformers: The Last Knight, $6M

PTA: A Ghost Story, Spider-Man, The Bick Sick, Despicable Me 3, Baby Driver


Next week: Six is back, talking about intelligent apes, evil wishes, something vaguely Shakesperean, and a lady who delivers babies. Should be fun.

Later!
Happy 60th birthday Jet Li! (4/26/23)

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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 7/7

Post by Buscemi »

Theatre counts:

Spider-Man: Homecoming - 4,348 (eleventh widest opener ever)
A Ghost Story - 4
City of Ghosts (surprised this isn't in the game, it could have gotten at least four Top 5 points this week) - 2

Meanwhile, Despicable Me 3's record for the widest release ever increases by seven, to 4,536. This record should stick...until the next Illumination title comes out. Get ready for Sherlock Grinch in 4,600 theatres next November.

Also, The Midwife got pushed back to July 21st.
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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 7/7

Post by Shrykespeare »

Celebrity Birthdays:

Ned Beatty turns 80 on 7/6 (now squeal like a pig!!)
OJ Simpson turns 70 on 7/9 (don't we miss Nordberg just a little?)
Kelly McGillis turns 60 on 7/9 (Has she lost that lovin' feeling yet?)


Yeah, sorry about City of Ghosts, but it got added to the roster too late.
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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 7/7

Post by Walleye413 »

That is not a picture of OJ :)

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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 7/7

Post by Buscemi »

I'd probably gone with a picture of Lotso.
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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 7/7

Post by numbersix »

Yeah, Marvel #24 is definitely going to perform well with that kinda critica buzz. Maybe 120m opening and 300m cume. Still don't think it'll beat WW's cume.

I think A Ghost Story is even more niche than that. Despite the great cast it's closer to a Apichatpong Weerasethakul film (try pronouncing that).

1. Spider-Man: Homecoming, $120M
2. Despicable Me 3, $36M
3. Baby Driver, $13M
4. Wonder Woman, $9M
5. Transformers: The Last Knight, $7M

PTA: Spidey, Ghost Story, The Big Sick, Despicable 3, Baby Driver

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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 7/7

Post by Ron Burgundy »

Yeah, agree that Spidey will break out here. The summer has been so-so at best, next 2 weeks will have good ol tentpole action.

i did try pronoucing that six, got halfway ;)
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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 7/7

Post by Shrykespeare »

Walleye413 wrote:That is not a picture of OJ :)
I know, OJ and Bill have had their (ahem) problems, but I still retain a lot of fond memories of Bill. OJ... not so much.
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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 7/7

Post by Walleye413 »

Ha, yes, somehow missed your tag at the end - I know you usually pick someone from the "list" to feature. Yes, I was never a big OJ fan myself, but my memories of the Cosby show, and his stand-up, were very fond. But they are forever changed now.

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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 7/7

Post by Shrykespeare »

Friday Estimates

Spider-Man, $50.5M
Despicable Me 3, $11.3M
Baby Driver, $3.9M
Wonder Woman, $2.9M
Transformers, $1.8M
Cars 3, $1.7M
The House, $1.5M
The Big Sick, $1.1M


Weekend Projections

Spider-Man, $125M
Despicable Me 3, $38.5M
Baby Driver, $12.5M
Wonder Woman, $9.8M
Transformers, $5.9M
Cars 3, $5.7M
The House, $4.7M
47 Meters Down, $2.6M
POTC 5, $1.2M
The Mummy, $1.2M


PTA:

Spider-Man, $28K
The Big Sick, $11K
Despicable Me 3, $8.5K
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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 7/7

Post by Shrykespeare »

Weekend Estimates

Top 10:
5 points - Spider-Man: Homecoming, $117.0M
4 points - Despicable Me 3, $34.0M
3 points - Baby Driver, $12.7M
2 points - Wonder Woman, $10.1M
1 point - Transformers: The Last Knight, $6.3M
Cars 3, $5.6M
The House, $4.8M
The Big Sick, $3.6M
47 Meters Down, $2.7M
The Beguiled, $2.1M


PTA:
5 points - A Ghost Story, $27,017
4 points - Spider-Man: Homecoming, $26,912 (man, that's CLOSE)
3 points - The Big Sick, $11,196
2 points - Despicable Me 3, $7,497
1 point - Baby Driver, $3,952

Nothing from Santoalla, as expected.
Happy 60th birthday Jet Li! (4/26/23)

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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 7/7

Post by Shrykespeare »

Weekend Actuals

Top 10:
5 points - Spider-Man: Homecoming, $117.0M
4 points - Despicable Me 3, $33.6M
3 points - Baby Driver, $13.0M
2 points - Wonder Woman, $9.8M
1 point - Transformers: The Last Knight, $6.4M
Cars 3, $5.4M
The House, $4.8M
The Big Sick, $3.6M
47 Meters Down, $2.7M
The Beguiled, $2.1M


PTA:
5 points - Spider-Man: Homecoming, $26,915
4 points - A Ghost Story, $26,008
3 points - The Big Sick, $10,971
2 points - Despicable Me 3, $7,405
1 point - Baby Driver, $4,031

Santoalla did not report.
Happy 60th birthday Jet Li! (4/26/23)

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