SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – FILMS OF 6/28-30
Posted: June 27th, 2017, 4:13 am
What happened to America? Have you guys started to see sense? Are you truly sick of the endless sequels, designed to cynically recreate past glories just o con you out of your hard-earned dollar? Are you saying “no” (or at least “not so much”) to fourth and fifth instalments of smashing robots or drunken pirates, while flocking to watch a (Wonder) woman show us how to really kick ass? What’s going on with the world, when it’s us snobbish non-American who are the ones propping up these tired franchises while you remain the tastemakers. Next you’ll be scoffing at the way we speak, turning away to discuss the intricacies of fine cheeses and champagne.
With the domestic failure of Transformers #WhoGivesARatsAss, this weekend hopes to win back audiences with three wide releases.
If there was ever a safe bet for your slate this summer, it’s gotta be Despicable Me 3 (Universal). You don’t even need to know what the plot is; it’s surely just another adventure for Gru, his kids, and those ultra-sellable Minions. With Cars 3 underperforming, and Captain Underpants just about earning its keep, there’s a gap here. Those shortlings are getting restless now that school’s over and it’s warming up, so what parent wouldn’t want to spend a lean 90 minutes (excluding an hour of ads) watching another caper. So this film is going to win the weekend, and probably hold well until The Emoji Movie makes its slight dent.
Reviews have been good, but being the fourth film in the franchise, it’s probably not going to rocket through any ceilings. An impressive $100m opening and a cume of about $300m feels about right. That should get you about 13 Top 5, 8 PTA, and a low 7 IMDB score. All pretty impressive, with the only real competition for your top dollar being Spiderman Homecoming. This feels like a safer bet.
Every summer has its successful comedy, so will The House (Warner/New Line) be it? Rough Night and Baywatch failed miserably, so there’s a good chance this Will Ferrell and Amy Pohler vehicle will get those sides splitting. It’s about a couple who turn their house into a casino to pay for their daughter’s college tuition. And while Ferrell isn’t the star he used to be, and Pohler hasn’t skyrocketed in value, the film aims for an older audience which hasn’t really been catered to outside the speciality releases. The film should open in the low 20s and hold well, ending up with about $70m, and possibly more. That should get you 7 T5, 3 PTA, and an average IMDB score. However, it’s $14-$16 in Ultimate and $16/$17 in BO, meaning you’re going to need it to beat my predictions to be worth it. Atomic Blonde or Annabelle Creation might get you better results.
And wild card of the week is Baby Driver (Sony), a sort of action car-chase musical mash-up, directed by British genius Edgar Wright. The reviews are amazing, as has WOM from its SXSW screening, and the cast (Jon Hamm, Kevin Spacey, Lily James, Jamie Foxx) is strong. Yet, it’s opening on a Wednesday, Wright’s sensibilities have never been for a mainstream US audience, and it might be buried by bigger fish. I’ve seen predictions from $25-$80m, but I’m leaning on the conservative side - $15m 5-day weekend and a cume of about $40m. As exciting as the film looks, that will get you nowt in Ultimate besides a good IMDB score, and even in BO it looks tricky. I’d avoid. Just don’t blame me if it becomes the pick of the season.
This weekend has only one eligible limited release, 13 Minutes (Sony Classics). Which is about the length of a typical cinema ad these days. Based on a true story, it concerns the attempt a German man made to assassinate Hitler in 1939. Obviously, he failed, but the film is a WWII movie, so it’s bound to get some attention. It’s by the same director of the hugely successful (and memed) Downfall, although it hasn’t been as much of an award-winner. Still, with SC releasing, you could see a few PTA points this weekend. There are a few stronger offers for your 3 bucks, though, so choose wisely.
My predictions for the weekend
1. Despicable Me 3 - $100m
2. The House - $22m
3. Transformers 5- $20m
4. Wonder Woman - $14m
5. Cars 3 - $12m
6. Baby Driver - $8m (13m 5-day)
PTA: Despicable Me 3, The Big Sick, The House, 13 Minutes, The Beguiled
Next week Shryke is going to make me eat my words by telling me how I shoulda picked Iron Man 4… I mean The Avengers 2.5…. I mean Spiderman: Homecoming for my slate. Along with that comes a bunch of indie releases, including Casey Affleck literally under a sheet (A Ghost Story), documentary Santoalla, and the aptly titled Superpowerless.
With the domestic failure of Transformers #WhoGivesARatsAss, this weekend hopes to win back audiences with three wide releases.
If there was ever a safe bet for your slate this summer, it’s gotta be Despicable Me 3 (Universal). You don’t even need to know what the plot is; it’s surely just another adventure for Gru, his kids, and those ultra-sellable Minions. With Cars 3 underperforming, and Captain Underpants just about earning its keep, there’s a gap here. Those shortlings are getting restless now that school’s over and it’s warming up, so what parent wouldn’t want to spend a lean 90 minutes (excluding an hour of ads) watching another caper. So this film is going to win the weekend, and probably hold well until The Emoji Movie makes its slight dent.
Reviews have been good, but being the fourth film in the franchise, it’s probably not going to rocket through any ceilings. An impressive $100m opening and a cume of about $300m feels about right. That should get you about 13 Top 5, 8 PTA, and a low 7 IMDB score. All pretty impressive, with the only real competition for your top dollar being Spiderman Homecoming. This feels like a safer bet.
Every summer has its successful comedy, so will The House (Warner/New Line) be it? Rough Night and Baywatch failed miserably, so there’s a good chance this Will Ferrell and Amy Pohler vehicle will get those sides splitting. It’s about a couple who turn their house into a casino to pay for their daughter’s college tuition. And while Ferrell isn’t the star he used to be, and Pohler hasn’t skyrocketed in value, the film aims for an older audience which hasn’t really been catered to outside the speciality releases. The film should open in the low 20s and hold well, ending up with about $70m, and possibly more. That should get you 7 T5, 3 PTA, and an average IMDB score. However, it’s $14-$16 in Ultimate and $16/$17 in BO, meaning you’re going to need it to beat my predictions to be worth it. Atomic Blonde or Annabelle Creation might get you better results.
And wild card of the week is Baby Driver (Sony), a sort of action car-chase musical mash-up, directed by British genius Edgar Wright. The reviews are amazing, as has WOM from its SXSW screening, and the cast (Jon Hamm, Kevin Spacey, Lily James, Jamie Foxx) is strong. Yet, it’s opening on a Wednesday, Wright’s sensibilities have never been for a mainstream US audience, and it might be buried by bigger fish. I’ve seen predictions from $25-$80m, but I’m leaning on the conservative side - $15m 5-day weekend and a cume of about $40m. As exciting as the film looks, that will get you nowt in Ultimate besides a good IMDB score, and even in BO it looks tricky. I’d avoid. Just don’t blame me if it becomes the pick of the season.
This weekend has only one eligible limited release, 13 Minutes (Sony Classics). Which is about the length of a typical cinema ad these days. Based on a true story, it concerns the attempt a German man made to assassinate Hitler in 1939. Obviously, he failed, but the film is a WWII movie, so it’s bound to get some attention. It’s by the same director of the hugely successful (and memed) Downfall, although it hasn’t been as much of an award-winner. Still, with SC releasing, you could see a few PTA points this weekend. There are a few stronger offers for your 3 bucks, though, so choose wisely.
My predictions for the weekend
1. Despicable Me 3 - $100m
2. The House - $22m
3. Transformers 5- $20m
4. Wonder Woman - $14m
5. Cars 3 - $12m
6. Baby Driver - $8m (13m 5-day)
PTA: Despicable Me 3, The Big Sick, The House, 13 Minutes, The Beguiled
Next week Shryke is going to make me eat my words by telling me how I shoulda picked Iron Man 4… I mean The Avengers 2.5…. I mean Spiderman: Homecoming for my slate. Along with that comes a bunch of indie releases, including Casey Affleck literally under a sheet (A Ghost Story), documentary Santoalla, and the aptly titled Superpowerless.