SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – FILMS OF 6/28-30

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SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – FILMS OF 6/28-30

Post by numbersix »

What happened to America? Have you guys started to see sense? Are you truly sick of the endless sequels, designed to cynically recreate past glories just o con you out of your hard-earned dollar? Are you saying “no” (or at least “not so much”) to fourth and fifth instalments of smashing robots or drunken pirates, while flocking to watch a (Wonder) woman show us how to really kick ass? What’s going on with the world, when it’s us snobbish non-American who are the ones propping up these tired franchises while you remain the tastemakers. Next you’ll be scoffing at the way we speak, turning away to discuss the intricacies of fine cheeses and champagne.

With the domestic failure of Transformers #WhoGivesARatsAss, this weekend hopes to win back audiences with three wide releases.




If there was ever a safe bet for your slate this summer, it’s gotta be Despicable Me 3 (Universal). You don’t even need to know what the plot is; it’s surely just another adventure for Gru, his kids, and those ultra-sellable Minions. With Cars 3 underperforming, and Captain Underpants just about earning its keep, there’s a gap here. Those shortlings are getting restless now that school’s over and it’s warming up, so what parent wouldn’t want to spend a lean 90 minutes (excluding an hour of ads) watching another caper. So this film is going to win the weekend, and probably hold well until The Emoji Movie makes its slight dent.

Reviews have been good, but being the fourth film in the franchise, it’s probably not going to rocket through any ceilings. An impressive $100m opening and a cume of about $300m feels about right. That should get you about 13 Top 5, 8 PTA, and a low 7 IMDB score. All pretty impressive, with the only real competition for your top dollar being Spiderman Homecoming. This feels like a safer bet.




Every summer has its successful comedy, so will The House (Warner/New Line) be it? Rough Night and Baywatch failed miserably, so there’s a good chance this Will Ferrell and Amy Pohler vehicle will get those sides splitting. It’s about a couple who turn their house into a casino to pay for their daughter’s college tuition. And while Ferrell isn’t the star he used to be, and Pohler hasn’t skyrocketed in value, the film aims for an older audience which hasn’t really been catered to outside the speciality releases. The film should open in the low 20s and hold well, ending up with about $70m, and possibly more. That should get you 7 T5, 3 PTA, and an average IMDB score. However, it’s $14-$16 in Ultimate and $16/$17 in BO, meaning you’re going to need it to beat my predictions to be worth it. Atomic Blonde or Annabelle Creation might get you better results.




And wild card of the week is Baby Driver (Sony), a sort of action car-chase musical mash-up, directed by British genius Edgar Wright. The reviews are amazing, as has WOM from its SXSW screening, and the cast (Jon Hamm, Kevin Spacey, Lily James, Jamie Foxx) is strong. Yet, it’s opening on a Wednesday, Wright’s sensibilities have never been for a mainstream US audience, and it might be buried by bigger fish. I’ve seen predictions from $25-$80m, but I’m leaning on the conservative side - $15m 5-day weekend and a cume of about $40m. As exciting as the film looks, that will get you nowt in Ultimate besides a good IMDB score, and even in BO it looks tricky. I’d avoid. Just don’t blame me if it becomes the pick of the season.




This weekend has only one eligible limited release, 13 Minutes (Sony Classics). Which is about the length of a typical cinema ad these days. Based on a true story, it concerns the attempt a German man made to assassinate Hitler in 1939. Obviously, he failed, but the film is a WWII movie, so it’s bound to get some attention. It’s by the same director of the hugely successful (and memed) Downfall, although it hasn’t been as much of an award-winner. Still, with SC releasing, you could see a few PTA points this weekend. There are a few stronger offers for your 3 bucks, though, so choose wisely.



My predictions for the weekend

1. Despicable Me 3 - $100m
2. The House - $22m
3. Transformers 5- $20m
4. Wonder Woman - $14m
5. Cars 3 - $12m

6. Baby Driver - $8m (13m 5-day)

PTA: Despicable Me 3, The Big Sick, The House, 13 Minutes, The Beguiled


Next week Shryke is going to make me eat my words by telling me how I shoulda picked Iron Man 4… I mean The Avengers 2.5…. I mean Spiderman: Homecoming for my slate. Along with that comes a bunch of indie releases, including Casey Affleck literally under a sheet (A Ghost Story), documentary Santoalla, and the aptly titled Superpowerless.

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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – FILMS OF 6/28-30

Post by Buscemi »

As I mentioned on last week's thread, The House isn't being screened to critics and combined with its time on the shelf (it was finished very early last year) and short 88 minute run time (in a genre where most titles nowadays run close to two hours) suggest it's terrible. It could bottom out at $10 million for the weekend.

And that description for A Ghost Story sounds apt. I saw the trailer before It Comes at Night and was like "This was what got all that praise at Sundance?" Without Affleck's recent Oscar win and A24 distributing, it would die in the big cities (and I got into it with some A24-obsessed people on another site claiming that this would play well wide, I don't even think it will make a million).

As for trends, Hollywood's still going to go one way (casting Zac Efron in testosterone-heavy roles when his audience want him as a sensitive, non-threatening figure, thinking the 12th or so billed actor from King Arthur: Legend of the Sword will be the next big thing, still thinking Aubrey Plaza can open a film) while audiences go another way (female-led superhero movies, movies with appeal to Latino and Asian audiences, horror with a less-is-more approach). It's going to be the indies that will save the industry from the doldrums (I have a feeling Annapurna's going to be the next A24).
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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – FILMS OF 6/28-30

Post by numbersix »

Oh, you're very much right about A Ghost Story. I caught it and while I enjoyed it, it's more like an art installation rather than a narrative film. But that still makes it a potential PTA goldmine. Shryke will tell us more ;)

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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – FILMS OF 6/28-30

Post by Chienfantome »

If anything I think The House's runtime is a good sign. Maybe for once they actually made some editing, most comedies shouldn't be 2-hour long.
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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – FILMS OF 6/28-30

Post by Buscemi »

But it's very rare when you see a big studio film aimed towards adults that short. The last time I recall one under 90 minutes was The Brothers Grimsby and that was hacked to pieces to get an R rating (of course, it was dead on arrival). American audiences prefer longer movies (Judd Apatow's never heard of an editor but people keep showing up for his movies, his two-hour Girls episode grossed over $100 million) as they like to get their money's worth. And since Warner Bros. is sneaking The House out without press screenings, these are signs telling us that it's not very good.
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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – FILMS OF 6/28-30

Post by Chienfantome »

Under 90 minutes Hollywood films may be a rarity, but it should not mean by advance that it's a bad film.
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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – FILMS OF 6/28-30

Post by transformers2 »

Buscemi wrote:But it's very rare when you see a big studio film aimed towards adults that short. The last time I recall one under 90 minutes was The Brothers Grimsby and that was hacked to pieces to get an R rating (of course, it was dead on arrival). American audiences prefer longer movies (Judd Apatow's never heard of an editor but people keep showing up for his movies, his two-hour Girls episode grossed over $100 million) as they like to get their money's worth. And since Warner Bros. is sneaking The House out without press screenings, these are signs telling us that it's not very good.
Popstar was 87 minutes and got good reviews (and before you say it, I'm well-aware that it bombed)

The House is probably going to get bad reviews, but given the fact that Brendan O'Brien and Andrew J. Cohen have never made a movie that was longer than 97 minutes, I doubt that it was significantly edited down.
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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – FILMS OF 6/28-30

Post by Shrykespeare »

numbersix wrote:Oh, you're very much right about A Ghost Story. I caught it and while I enjoyed it, it's more like an art installation rather than a narrative film. But that still makes it a potential PTA goldmine. Shryke will tell us more ;)
Yeah, but intend to lie my ass off. :lol: :lol: :lol:


Yes, comedies have sucked this summer so far - I hate to sound sexist, but I wonder if one of the reasons Snatched and Rough Night bombed was because it had little to no appeal for male moviegoers. I dunno, maybe Girls Trip will succeed where those other ones failed. I wouldn't put Baywatch in the "comedy" category as it was more of a comedic action-romp. The House, at least, seems to have dual male/female appeal, but still... gaaah. Can someone get me some syrup for all the waffling I'm doing?
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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – FILMS OF 6/28-30

Post by BanksIsDaFuture »

Honestly, I think the "party" subgenre of R rated comedy is over. Neighbors 2, Office Christmas Party, Rough Night, Sisters (although it legged out due to the holiday - still wasn't very good), etc - all bombing. The premise just isn't enough anymore.

Look at any comedy that grossed over $100M in the last 4-5 years - they've all had an actual plot, in varying degrees of originality. Ted, Neighbors, 21/22 Jump Street, We're The Millers, Identity Thief. All have actual stories, not just a skeleton to hang improv jokes on.

Snatched failed because the general public opinion on Amy Schumer seems to have turned against her. It does actually have a plot, it's just unfortunate that her face seems to turn off a vast number of moviegoers.

(Plus, I watched Snatched and it's leading the vote for the worst movie of the year for me. It's unbelievably unfunny. The non-ending of The Circle is currently #2 on that list.)
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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – FILMS OF 6/28-30

Post by transformers2 »

To be fair, Rough Night had a plot, it was just morbid and somewhat reminiscent of another movie.
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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – FILMS OF 6/28-30

Post by Walleye413 »

Yeah, that's an interesting observation. The House has a good hook, but I don't know if it will have a plot. Maybe studios are going to have to put some money into scripts again.

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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – FILMS OF 6/28-30

Post by undeadmonkey »

This is all the fault of The Hangover

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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – FILMS OF 6/28-30

Post by Buscemi »

Snatched failed because they tried to put Amy Schumer into a Melissa McCarthy plot (well, that and because Schumer played such an unlikable character as well as the awful trailer), not because of men's rights activists (the same people that try to tell us Bill Burr's funny and not a cheap knockoff of George Carlin). You just can't put someone into something they aren't comfortable in and expect it to work.

And Rough Night should have been a low-budget indie film instead of a big studio project. Broad City is at best a cult show and with Girls now off the air, the show's main purpose of being a satire of that show and Brooklyn culture is now gone. As a $5 million film without a pair of overexposed stars, it could have played a lot better than it did.

But the industry needs to stop making every comedy for bros or Williamsburg residents (as well realize that not everyone under 30 likes Daniel Tosh or is Lena Dunham). You can be funny without being raunchy or having everything be an inside joke five people on the Internet will get. The funniest thing so far this year is the new season of Mystery Science Theater 3000 and nearly every episode is something everyone can enjoy.
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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – FILMS OF 6/28-30

Post by Shrykespeare »

Theater counts:

Despicable Me 3 - 4,529
Baby Driver - 3,226
The House - 3,134
13 Minutes - 3


Next week:

Spider-Man: Homecoming - 4,000





Celebrity Birthdays:

Richard Lewis turned 70 on 6/29 (looking ... yup, still depressed)
Maria Conchita Alonso turned 60 on 6/29 (possibly the first Latina actress I crushed on as a teen, do you see her in The Running Man?)
Pamela Anderson turns 50 on 7/1 (nope, never crushed on her. Truth.)
Liv Tyler turns 40 on 7/1 (where has she been since Incredible Hulk?)
Larry David turns 70 on 7/2 (looking ... yup, still unenthused)
Happy 60th birthday Jet Li! (4/26/23)

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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – FILMS OF 6/28-30

Post by Walleye413 »

I totally agree with you on Maria and Pamela!

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