Walleye's Weekly Winners: The Films of 6/21 and 6/23

Mr. Columnist himself presents weekly analysis and tips.

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Walleye's Weekly Winners: The Films of 6/21 and 6/23

Post by Walleye413 »

The women are taking over! Following Wonder Woman’s surprise box office status (and, you know, the fact that it was actually a good movie.) Mandy Moore used her newfound clout to open a straight to DVD release to 11million this past weekend! Sure Cars “won” the weekend at 53 million, and All Eyez on Me over-performed at 26 million. But if you’re looking for the saviors of the summer, it’s Girls rule – boys drool! (Shh, don’t look at Rough Night.) And women will be the best part of this weekend as well.

Our lone wide release this weekend is Transformers: The Last Knight. You didn’t think you needed another Transformers movie – and you were right! But that’s not stopping Michael Bay from churning out another one. I’ll say as a Dad with teenage boys I’ve watched all the Transformers movies, most of them several times. And the first one is really pretty good. In fact, with each sequel I think that the first one gets better all the time. It had a soul, a purpose, a reasonable plot. It wasn’t a perfect movie, but it wasn’t the hot mess that Last Knight so clearly will be. The plot of this is – honestly I have no idea. I think it has something to do with King Arthur, and Optimus Prime turning evil. We’ve got Mark Wahlberg back, plus a ton of young teens replacing (actual cannibal) Shia Lebouf. This movie will make its money back overseas. But expect the domestic box office to mirror POTC, and The Mummy. It will win the weekend, even with the Wednesday opening, but crash land around 47 million for the 3 day, 67 for the 5 day. And I don’t think it hits $150 million total. That’ll get you 8 Top 5 points, maybe 3-4 PTA. Make a wise choice. Don’t see this movie, and don’t put it on your slates.

Much more promising are our Indie releases – two of the best of the season going head to head. First we’ll take The Big Sick – one of the buzziest romantic dramas of the year. Written by and starring Kumail Nanjiani this semi-autobiographical story details a romance bridging the gaps of cultural differences, 9/11, a coma, and more. This was one of the hits of Sundance, and to give too much away would ruin the sweet surprises that are in store. You should see this movie, and you should have it on your slates. If handled right, and I think it will be, it’ll get PTA and Box Office when all is said and done. The imdb score is a little low – which seems odd. But, haters gotta hate. I predict 8-10 PTA, plus a higher Box Office than just about every other indie pick out there.

The Big Sick would do better if not for one thing – The Beguiled. The latest collaboration between Sophia Coppola and Kirsten Dunst is a remake with a decidedly female, and creepy cool, vibe. Add in Nicole Kidman, Elle Fanning, and Colin Farrel as the token guy, and this movie should do quite well. It’s in 4 screens, not the 5 of Big Sick. Plus it’s got a few bigger names than Big Sick, and slightly higher imdb score. In the end, I think the Big Sick makes more at the Box Office, but I think the Beguiled will get more PTA points with a slower roll-out. I’ll say 10-12 PTA in the end, making this one of the better $4 picks in the game. Girls rule again.

Next week we get an odd assortment of movies which I think are all destined to underperform a bit as well. Despicable Me 3 should suffer a little threequelitis, the House hopes to buck the R-rated comedy curse of this Summer, Amityville tries to get anybody to watch, and Baby Driver will be the best of the bunch. Who would have guessed that 3 months ago?

Top 5
Transformers: The Last Gasp
Wonder Woman
Cars 3
All Eyez on Me
The Mummy

PTA
The Beguiled
The Big Sick
Transformers
Beatriz at Dinner
(The Bad Batch) if it were in the game.

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Re: Walleye's Weekly Winners: The Films of 6/21 and 6/23

Post by Buscemi »

Amityville lost its date a while back. No new date has been given (I'm expecting it to get sold off to Lionsgate or a distributor that would give it a day-and-date release).
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Re: Walleye's Weekly Winners: The Films of 6/21 and 6/23

Post by Shrykespeare »

Theater Counts:

Transformers: The Last Knight - 4,069
The Big Sick - 5
The Beguiled - 4



Next week:

Despicable Me 3 - 4,350+
Baby Driver - 3,100
The House - 3,000+
Amityville: The Awakening (still on the list...) - "Wide"





Celebrity birthdays:

Mia Sara turned 50 on 6/19 (I'd still skip school for her...)
Nicole Kidman turned 50 on 6/20 (coming up in Aquaman!)
Michael Gross turned 70 on 6/21 (still doing Tremors movies!)
Bryan Brown turns 70 on 6/23 (still hasn't done anything more famous than Cocktail)
Frances McDormand turns 60 on 6/23 (coming up in Three Billboards Outside Ebbing Missouri)
Peter Weller turns 70 on 6/24 ("Come quietly or there will be ...... trouble")
Jimmie Walker turns 70 on 6/25 (Yes, folks, Kid Dyn-O-Mite is still kickin'!)
Happy 60th birthday Jet Li! (4/26/23)

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Re: Walleye's Weekly Winners: The Films of 6/21 and 6/23

Post by numbersix »

This summer is proved we're tired of the old franchises. Wonder if this might have an impact on Spiderman, or will its desperate attempt to tie into MCU by throwing in Iron Man work wonders?

Transformers is dying. Not quite dead yet thanks to foreign figures, but it won't last long. The big question is The Beguiled or The Big Sick. Think you're right to choose the former as the winner, Walleye.

Top 5
1. Transformers 5 - $40m
2. Wonder Woman- $27m
3. Cars 3 - $26m
4. All Eyez on Me - $10m
5. The Mummy - $7.5m

PTA: The Beguiled, The Big Sick, Transformers 5, Wonder Woman, Cars 3

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Re: Walleye's Weekly Winners: The Films of 6/21 and 6/23

Post by Buscemi »

The Beguiled has the shorter run time (93 minutes compared to The Big Sick running two hours) but The Big Sick has had more buzz. The Big Sick is also a comedy (albeit one with no mainstream stars), which will help word of mouth (I wouldn't put stock in the IMDb score, as I'm sure racist teens downvoted it).

It will be close but even with fewer showtimes, The Big Sick should take the PTA crown (assuming Tubelight doesn't steal some of its audience).

Meanwhile, Beatriz at Dinner increases to over 400 theatres. With most theatres probably running five or six shows a day due to the short run time (83 minutes), it could manage one more point. Also, The Book of Henry officially goes wide today for some reason. I'd be surprised if that takes in a $1,000 PTA, seeing how bad it apparently is.

Speaking of run times, the 88 minute run time for next week's The House suggests that it went through a lot of editing before the final cut was submitted and is likely another example of the industry not knowing what's actually funny.
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Re: Walleye's Weekly Winners: The Films of 6/21 and 6/23

Post by Walleye413 »

Hey Shryke, the notes in the Celebrity Birthdays this week were fantastic!

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Re: Walleye's Weekly Winners: The Films of 6/21 and 6/23

Post by Shrykespeare »

Walleye413 wrote:Hey Shryke, the notes in the Celebrity Birthdays this week were fantastic!
Thanks. I may jazz it up like that every week.
Happy 60th birthday Jet Li! (4/26/23)

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Re: Walleye's Weekly Winners: The Films of 6/21 and 6/23

Post by Shrykespeare »

Friday Estimates

Transformers, $13.7M
Cars 3, $7.6M
Wonder Woman, $7.3M
47 Meters Down, $2.3M
All Eyez on Me, $1.9M
The Mummy, $1.7M
POTC 5, $1.6M
Rough Night, $1.6M
Captain Underpants, $1.4M




Weekend Projections:

Transformers, $40.5M ($64.3M 5-day)
Wonder Woman, $27M
Cars 3, $26M
47 Meters Down, $7M
All Eyez on Me, $6M
The Mummy, $5.6M
POTC 5, $5.5M
Rough Night, $5M
Captain Underpants, $4.8M
GOTG 2, $3.1M


PTA:

The Big Sick, $82.8K
Transformers, $10K
Wonder Woman, $6.8K
Cars 3, $6.1K

No word yet on The Beguiled.
Happy 60th birthday Jet Li! (4/26/23)

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Re: Walleye's Weekly Winners: The Films of 6/21 and 6/23

Post by Shrykespeare »

Weekend Estimates

Top 10:
5 points - Transformers: The Last Knight, $45.3M ($69.1M 5-day)
? points - Cars 3, $25.175M (dead heat)
? points - Wonder Woman, $25.175 (dead heat)
2 points - 47 Meters Down, $7.4M
1 point - All Eyez on Me, $5.8M
The Mummy, $5.8M
Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales, $5.2M
Rough Night, $4.7M
Captain Underpants: 4.3M
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2, $3.0M



PTA:
5 points - The Big Sick, $87K
4 points - The Beguiled, $60K
3 points - Transformers: The Last Knight, $11K
2 points - Wonder Woman, $6K
1 point - Cars 3, $6K
Happy 60th birthday Jet Li! (4/26/23)

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Re: Walleye's Weekly Winners: The Films of 6/21 and 6/23

Post by Shrykespeare »

Weekend Actuals

Top 10:
5 points - Transformers: The Last Knight, $44.7M ($68.5M 5-day)
4 points - Wonder Woman, $24.9M
3 points - Cars 3, $24.0M
2 points - 47 Meters Down, $7.1M
1 point - The Mummy, $6.1M
All Eyez on Me, $5.8M
Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales, $5.4M
Rough Night, $4.7M
Captain Underpants, $4.3M
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2, $3.0M



PTA:
5 points - The Big Sick, $84,315
4 points - The Beguiled, $57,323
3 points - Transformers: The Last Knight, $10,921
2 points - Wonder Woman, $6,333
1 point - Cars 3, $5,657
Happy 60th birthday Jet Li! (4/26/23)

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Re: Walleye's Weekly Winners: The Films of 6/21 and 6/23

Post by Walleye413 »

Wow, the Big Sick is going to be massive. As far as Indie's go. And Transformers - whew, glad to see Americans at least have grown wiser. We've done one thing right!

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Re: Walleye's Weekly Winners: The Films of 6/21 and 6/23

Post by Buscemi »

But I'm sure Bumblebee will serve as the franchise's bounce back. The fact that Travis Knight's directing will get those online who've criticized Bay's films interested.

Meanwhile, I knew All Eyez on Me would drop hard but not 78% hard.

Also, it looks like I was right about The House. Warner Bros. isn't screening it to critics (and this never happens nowadays).
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