Daniel's Weekend BoxOffice Predictions (6/16-18/2017)

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Daniel's Weekend BoxOffice Predictions (6/16-18/2017)

Post by DanielTheMovieGod »

This fathers' day weekend, we will have four movies to open which they are "47 Meters Down", "All Eyez On Me", "Cars 3", and "Rough Night"

Cars 3:

Disney/Pixar’s "Cars 3" will easily win the weekend box-office taking down Warner Bros./DC’s "Wonder Woman" with an opening in the high $60M-low $70M range at 4,200 estimated theaters. Should "Cars 3" park in the upper part of that range, it will be a good hold for this sequel which saw an increase between the opening of its 2006 first installment ($60.1M) and its 2011 second chapter ($66.1M). "Cars 3" is currently getting more respect from critics than "Cars 2", with 70% fresh Rotten Tomatoes to 39% Rotten, thanks to its aging athlete Rocky-like story.

This movie will easily get the family's attention (mostly on father's day) this weekend, since "Captain Underpants: The First Epic Movie" didn't start off as good as "Home (2015)" "Trolls" and "The Boss Baby". But the only competition "Cars 3" will have (Which might affect a bit on it's run) is "Despicable Me 3" on June 30th. Back in 2013, "Despicable Me 2" actually effect "Monsters University" on its third week by dropping 56.8% from its second week of release so it might happen to "Cars 3"

Breaking down Cars 3‘s theater count, the movie will be available at 3,000 3D locations, 171 Imax auditoriums and 420-plus premium large format screens including 52 Dolby Cinema locations, 118 D-BOX venues and ten 4D theaters. Previews start tomorrow at 7 PM.

All Eyez On Me:

Lionsgate’s Codeblack Films/Morgan Creek "All Eyez On Me" about the life of rapper Tupac Shakur will open in over 2,450 domestic locations this Friday with an eye on $15M-$22M this weekend. Pic is being released on Tupac’s birthday (he would have been 46 years old) and includes over a dozen songs from the artist’s catalog. Previews begin 7 PM tomorrow night. Voltage Pictures handled overseas sales on the film. Current advance ticket sales are brisk on Fandango, ranking as the site’s No. 3 seller today.

This movie will definitely get's all father's attention Sunday (unless some of them might get drag to see "Cars 3" by their kids). I don't see any negativity or cons might affect's this movie. The Competition around this movie is very soft though so I'll say if the critics aren't happy with this movie, it will be an underperformer at the box-office.

Rough Night:

Sony’s "Rough Night" (which at this point) isn’t expected to move the needle for the resurgence of comedies at the box office nor catch a wave on the surviving raunchy female subgenre. Industry tracking has the $20M budgeted R-rated comedy about a wild bachelorette party that accidentally takes the life of a male stripper between $12-17 million (Not a good start) at 3,200 theaters. Rotten Tomatoes reviews are registering at 46% Rotten as of right now. At one point titled "Rock That Body", Sony acquired the Downs-Aniello script in an aggressive bidding war two years ago. Similar to "The Shallows" and "Sausage Party", Sony relegated a large portion of its marketing to a thrifty digital spend.

Plus this movie will not get any fathers attention to go see this because this feels like more like a moms movie instead of a dads movie. I think that Sony wanted to release on mother's day but "Snatched" was a thing so they think that releasing it on father's day will get the exact audience from mother's day but with dads. Also, this was supposed to be released next week along with "Transformers: The Last Knight" true that they moved this movie a week earlier so they could make some money before "The House" comes out on June 30th. But they choose a wrong release date for it.

47 Meters Down:

The last movie of this week is "47 Meters Down" marks the first mega release by Byron Allen’s Entertainment Studios which acquired the Johannes Roberts movie from Dimension last summer for high single digits. Entertainment Studios didn’t curb on P&A for this film, running ads for 47 Meters Down during the NBA finals, creating buzz on Snapchat with a Shark Cage lens and placing huge standees in multiplex lobbies across the nation. Rivals have the Mandy Moore-Claire Holt movie in the low single digits, but Entertainment Studios believes they can get past $10M. Previously Entertainment Studios did a service deal for Canelo's sci-fi horror Phoenix Forgotten in April which was also a wide release ultimately earning $3.6M. Freestyle Releasing, a unit of Entertainment Studios, will continue to handle the service deal pics while the parent company will launch wide-release movies. Shark movies are easy money with Screen Gems’ "The Shallows" earning close to $120M off an estimated $17M production cost last summer.

47 Meters Down is rated PG-13 and it is getting positive reviews on Rotten Tomatoes (75% rating) but it now has 8 critics rating on this movie so if more critics see this and saying that it's just a dumb shark movie as always. It might not get the audience attention like what Sony's shark movie "The Shallows" got last summer. Plus I have mixed feelings about this getting father's attention on Sunday. First the good, mostly all boys love some good old shark movies ever since "Jaws" and might want to check this out. But the bad is that this might have the same problem as "Rough Night", this movie is mostly targeted to girls than boys (sort of) so it may be a problem to father's or not.

Now let's see how will last week's winner and the loser will do this father's day weekend!

"Wonder Woman" will remain strong though in second, bound to dip around $30-35 million in her third weekend. This will definitely get all Marvel/DC fathers attention on Sunday unless they have to take their young ones to go watch "Cars 3".

Meanwhile Universal’s disaster The Mummy is expected to shed at $13-15 million in its second weekend. Even though this movie might do well Sunday mostly because this is mostly marketed to all boys and fathers, but since this is getting horrible reviews from critics and audiences, they might wanna pass this and go watch either "Wonder Woman" or "All Eyez On Me"

Weekend Predictions:
1. Cars 3: $72.5 million (New)
2. Wonder Woman: $33.5 million (-42.7%)
3. All Eyez On Me: $20.0 million (New)
4. Rough Night: $16.2 million (New)
5. The Mummy (2017): $14.3 million (-54.7%)
6. Pirates of The Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales: $7.8 million (-27.1%)
7. Captain Underpants: The First Epic Movie: $5.9 million (-51.2%)
8. 47 Meters Down: $3.8 million (New)
9. Guardians of The Galaxy Vol. 2: $3.6 million (-42.8%)
10. It Comes At Night: $2.9 million (-50.8%)

What do you guys think of it?
Last edited by DanielTheMovieGod on May 28th, 2018, 3:05 am, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Daniel's Weekend BoxOffice Predictions (6/16-18/2017)

Post by Buscemi »

Uh, Shryke is doing this week's column. Unless there was a change in schedule.
Everything on this post is strictly the opinion and only the opinion of Buscemi.

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Re: Daniel's Weekend BoxOffice Predictions (6/16-18/2017)

Post by DanielTheMovieGod »

Buscemi wrote:Uh, Shryke is doing this week's column. Unless there was a change in schedule.
I didn't know that people need to take turns. I'm sorry. Do you want me to delete this or not.

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Re: Daniel's Weekend BoxOffice Predictions (6/16-18/2017)

Post by Buscemi »

That would probably be for the best.
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Re: Daniel's Weekend BoxOffice Predictions (6/16-18/2017)

Post by BanksIsDaFuture »

Meh, I'm sure Shryke doesn't mind.
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Re: Daniel's Weekend BoxOffice Predictions (6/16-18/2017)

Post by Buscemi »

Based on tracking, how I see the releases. I wasn't going to do them all but if you insist.

Cars 3 $58 million
Wonder Woman $33 million (the theatre that's reopening here on Monday with three movies has already sold out all their screenings while Rough Night has yet to sell out any, this suggests another strong hold)
All Eyez on Me $25 million
The Mummy $13 million
Rough Night $12 million
Captain Underpants $7 million
Pirates of the Caribbean $5 million
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 $4 million
47 Meters Down $2.75 million (this one is hard to predict due to the theatre count, but I can't see it getting a PTA of $1,000)
Megan Leavey $2.5 million (despite it splitting screens at a lot of places, I still think it holds well)
It Comes at Night $2 million
The Book of Henry $1.5 million

PTA:
I don't recommend either The Book of Henry (too wide) or Maudie (opening in 24 theatres with mixed reviews despite positive audience reception).

5: Beatriz at Dinner
4: Cars 3
3: All Eyez on Me
2: Wonder Woman
1: The Hero (despite a significant expansion to 25 theatres, I think it edges Rough Night and Maudie out ever so slightly)
Everything on this post is strictly the opinion and only the opinion of Buscemi.

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Re: Daniel's Weekend BoxOffice Predictions (6/16-18/2017)

Post by DanielTheMovieGod »

I think I might not since there are people posting their predictions on this.

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Re: Daniel's Weekend BoxOffice Predictions (6/16-18/2017)

Post by Chienfantome »

Yeah, keep it here, Shryke can always put his own words and predictions too, we're gonna gonna complain someone is motivated and takes such an initiative !
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Re: Daniel's Weekend BoxOffice Predictions (6/16-18/2017)

Post by Buscemi »

Looks like Entertainment Studios got to their senses. 47 Meters Down will open in 2,300 theatres instead of the originally announced 3,500 (I wouldn't be surprised if most of these were Regals and the 1,200 taken off were non-Regal theatres that decided it wasn't worth dumping into a small auditorium).

I'll stick to my $2.75 million prediction but I can see it dipping as low as $1.8 million.
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Re: Daniel's Weekend BoxOffice Predictions (6/16-18/2017)

Post by Shrykespeare »

You know what? It's fine. I'm trying like heck to finish Book Two of my Wielders Series, plus I have editing assignments and whatnot. I totally don't mind that you stepped in and put in your two cents.

However, if you want to do a column in the future, please check the thread marked "COLUMN SCHEDULE". In the next week or two I will be adding the September movies, after which its first come first served.

I think I do want to do a column for Spider-Man, though. Daniel, if you want the August weekend featuring Hitman's Bodyguard, let me know.
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Re: Daniel's Weekend BoxOffice Predictions (6/16-18/2017)

Post by DanielTheMovieGod »

Shrykespeare wrote:You know what? It's fine. I'm trying like heck to finish Book Two of my Wielders Series, plus I have editing assignments and whatnot. I totally don't mind that you stepped in and put in your two cents.

However, if you want to do a column in the future, please check the thread marked "COLUMN SCHEDULE". In the next week or two I will be adding the September movies, after which its first come first served.

I think I do want to do a column for Spider-Man, though. Daniel, if you want the August weekend featuring Hitman's Bodyguard, let me know.
Ok. I'll let you know

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Re: Daniel's Weekend BoxOffice Predictions (6/16-18/2017)

Post by Shrykespeare »

Theater Counts:

Cars 3 - 4,256
Rough Night - 3,162
All Eyez on Me - 2,471
47 Meters Down - 2,300
The Book of Henry - 579
Maudie - 24



Next week:

Transformers: The Last Knight - 3,900
The Big Sick - 5
The Beguiled - 4




Celebrity Milestone Birthdays:

Timothy Busfield turned 60 on 6/12
Richard Ayoade turned 40 on 6/12
Sullivan Stapleton turned 40 on 6/14
Max Records turns 20 on 6/18
Happy 60th birthday Jet Li! (4/26/23)

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Re: Daniel's Weekend BoxOffice Predictions (6/16-18/2017)

Post by Buscemi »

Beatriz at Dinner is adding theatres after all (72 of them, to be exact).

Updated PTA predictions: Cars 3, All Eyez on Me (even with the awful reviews), Wonder Woman, Beatriz at Dinner, The Hero
Everything on this post is strictly the opinion and only the opinion of Buscemi.

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Re: Daniel's Weekend BoxOffice Predictions (6/16-18/2017)

Post by Shrykespeare »

Friday Estimates

Cars 3, $19.5M
All Eyez on Me, $12.8M
Wonder Woman, $10.8M
47 Meters Down, $4.5M
The Mummy, $3.8M
Rough Night, $3.3M
POTC 5, $2.3M
Captain Underpants, $2.1M
GOTG 2, $1.2M


Weekend Projections:

Cars 3, $51M
Wonder Woman, $40M (32% drop)
All Eyez on Me, $30M
The Mummy, $13.7M (57% drop)
47 Meters Down, $11.3M
Rough Night, $9M
POTC 5, $7.7M
Captain Underpants, $7.2M
GOTG, $4.8M
It Comes at Night, $2.3M


PTA:

All Eyez on Me, $12.1K
Cars 3, $12K
Wonder Woman, $10K
47 Meters Down, $5K
Happy 60th birthday Jet Li! (4/26/23)

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Re: Daniel's Weekend BoxOffice Predictions (6/16-18/2017)

Post by Chienfantome »

Who would have thought 47 meters down would be a better pick than Rough Night ???
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