Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 6/9

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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 6/9

Post by Shrykespeare »

Theater Counts:

The Mummy - 4,035
It Comes at Night - 2,533
Megan Leavey - 1,956
My Cousin Rachel - 523
Beatriz at Dinner - 5



Next week:

Cars 3 - 3,900
47 Meters Down - 3,500 (wow, was expecting more than 1000 fewer)
Rough Night - 3,000
All Eyez on Me - 2,400
The Book of Henry - 575
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 6/9

Post by Buscemi »

Regal apparently has a deal with Entertainment Studios to show and market 47 Meters Down in all its theatres, which might explain its count. I could easily see this being the lowest grossing 3,000+ opener ever, seeing how it was already released on DVD with another title before being pulled from shelves a few days later (there should be plenty of torrents out there with the original title of In the Deep).

The previous widest release by Freestyle Releasing/Entertainment Studios was The Haunting of Molly Hartley in 2008 (2,652 theatres, a lot of which was covered by the film's director).

Meanwhile, too early estimates from Deadline having Wonder Woman besting the competition with $48.5-51 million. The Mummy might not even hit $30 million for the weekend as estimates suggest a $11.5-12.5 million Friday and a weekend between $29.6 million and $32 million. If estimates hold, it will probably be the lowest opening ever for a 4,000+ theatre debut.
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 6/9

Post by Shrykespeare »

Well, The Shallows was released very close to this exact week one year ago, earning a $16M OW and $55M overall with an OW theater count of just under 3,000. Of course, that one looked both interesting and scary (and had a Sony advertising budget), whereas 47MD looks like a lesser studio's attempt to capture the same audience.

(Are shark movies going to be a yearly thing now? Next thing you know, there'll be a whole tornado full of 'em...)




BoxOffice'.com's predictions:

Wonder Woman, $50M
The Mummy, $32M
Captain Underpants, $13.35M
It Comes at Night, $11M
POTC: DMTNT, $10.4M
GOTG v2, $4.72M
Baywatch, $4.37M
Megan Leavey, $2.4M
Everything Everything, $1.98M
Alien: Covenant, $1.86M
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 6/9

Post by Buscemi »

When the 47 Meters Down trailer was shown with my showing of Wonder Woman, a lot of people in the audience were laughing at how bad it looked. The trailer probably got more laughs than the Rough Night trailer shown right after.

It will be interesting to see how Friend Request (another long-on-the-shelf film from the company that's already widely available, just not in the US) is distributed. I'd be surprised if that gets more than 1,000 theatres.
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 6/9

Post by Shrykespeare »

Buscemi wrote: It will be interesting to see how Friend Request (another long-on-the-shelf film from the company that's already widely available, just not in the US) is distributed. I'd be surprised if that gets more than 1,000 theatres.
Which is why I'm dropping FR for Death Race (hopefully). Go go waiver wire!
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 6/9

Post by Buscemi »

Cinemascores:

Megan Leavey: A
The Mummy: B-

It Comes at Night apparently was not exit polled. A24 must have stopped working with Cinemascore after The Witch's C- score last year.
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 6/9

Post by transformers2 »

Buscemi wrote:Cinemascores:

Megan Leavey: A
The Mummy: B-

It Comes at Night apparently was not exit polled. A24 must have stopped working with Cinemascore after The Witch's C- score last year.
Nope, It Comes at Night got a D Cinemascore
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 6/9

Post by Buscemi »

I see it now.

I'll probably catch it on Sunday with my gift card to see if it's that bad (I'm not expecting much anyway despite the reviews).

Anyway, updated numbers from Deadline:
Wonder Woman $15.7 million Friday/$54.3 million weekend
The Mummy $12 million Friday/$30.9 million weekend
It Comes at Night $2.6 million Friday/$6.7 million weekend
Megan Leavey $1.1 million Friday/$3.4 million weekend
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 6/9

Post by Shrykespeare »

Friday estimates

Wonder Woman, $15.8M
The Mummy, $12M
Captain Underpants, $3.6M
POT: DMTNT, 3M
It Comes at Night, $2.5M
GOTG 2, $1.7M
Baywatch, $1.3M
Megan Leavey, $1.2M



Weekend Projections:

Wonder Woman, $51M
The Mummy, $30M
Captain Underpants, $13M
POTC, $10.3M
It Comes at Night, $6.1M
Guardians 2, $6M
Baywatch, $4.3M
Alien: Covenant, $1.6M
Everything Everything, $1.6M

My Cousin Rachel, $890K
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 6/9

Post by Chienfantome »

Great hold in perspective for WW, but what a disappointment from "It comes at night". I never expected it to break out, but still, it seemed it could do in the $30M range, while it's gonna be far from it.
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 6/9

Post by Buscemi »

As I said on another thread, it shouldn't have gone wide right away. A24 would have been off opening in just New York and Los Angeles this week before expanding wide on the 23rd. It seems as if they went wide (and in over 2,500 theatres!) feeling that they the A24 diehards (the same kinds of people who think A Ghost Story would play well wide even though the last Affleck/Mara/Lowery teaming did nothing after a lot of pre-release hype) who will go see anything from them would come.

And with four new wide openers and one semi-wide opener on Friday, it's going to have a hard time holding its audience (someone on HSX pointed out It Follows and The Witch holding decently after poor word of mouth but those came out when there really was nothing in the market, It Comes at Night is a different story). A 65-70% second weekend drop wouldn't surprise me.
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 6/9

Post by Shrykespeare »

Dang. ICAN is my first flop of the year. At least I got it in a lower round.
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 6/9

Post by Shrykespeare »

Weekend Estimates

Top 10:
5 points - Wonder Woman, $57.2M (44% drop - so who won the office pool?)
4 points - The Mummy, $32.2M
3 points - Captain Underpants, $12.3M
2 points - Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales, $10.7M
1 point - Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2, $6.2M
It Comes at Night, $6.0M
Baywatch, $4.6M
Megan Leavey, $3.8M
Alien: Covenant, $1.8
Everything Everything, $1.6M
My Cousin Rachel, $954K


PTA:
5 points - Beatriz at Dinner
4 points - Wonder Woman
3 points - The Hero
2 points - The Mummy
1 point - Captain Underpants

Miles came in 8th.
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 6/9

Post by Shrykespeare »

I added Beatriz at Dinner to all my Ultimate slates based on your recommendation, tranny. Looks like it paid off! 5 stars! Even if doesn't get any more next week, that's still excellent for only $3!
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 6/9

Post by transformers2 »

Shrykespeare wrote:I added Beatriz at Dinner to all my Ultimate slates based on your recommendation, tranny. Looks like it paid off! 5 stars! Even if doesn't get any more next week, that's still excellent for only $3!
I'm glad that one of my recommendations actually helped someone out for once :lol:
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