Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 6/9

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Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 6/9

Post by transformers2 »

It's official: DC is out of the cinematic doghouse

The comic giant's latest film Wonder Woman shattered expectations with a $103.2 mil opening and an overwhelmingly positive reception from critics and audiences alike. Not only did Wonder Woman help breathe some much-needed optimism into the DCU, it entered the record books by recording the best ever-opening for a film with a female director.

The weekend's other wide opener Captain Underpants also got off to solid start grossing $23.8 mil in its OW. With a modest product budget of $38 million, the animated adaptation of the popular children's book series should be to turn a profit without any problem.

Elsewhere, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol.2 remained in the top 5 for the 5th straight weekend, finishing in 4th with just under $10 mil and Baywatch held better than expected ($8.7 mil, 52% drop) after its disappointing opening frame. On the other side of the coin, Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man Tales dropped nearly 65%- a new high for the long-running franchise- grossing just over $22 mil in its 2nd weekend of release and Lionsgate's latest Spanish-language comedy 3 Idiotas failed to match the success of April's How to Be a Latin Lover with an underwhelming $609,000 opening in around 350 theaters.

Wide Releases:
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The Mummy (Universal) has the distinct honor of being the next entry in Hollywood's super expensive, summerlong "Do people still give a shit about this long-dead franchise?" experiment. Alex Kurtzman's film is the 1st installment in Universal's recently revealed "Dark Universe" centered around the old monsters (Dracula, Frankenstein, The Wolfman, etc.)that first brought the studio notoriety in the 30's. It's far from a safe bet to takeoff, but clearly the powers that be at Universal think it's going to be a profitable creative endeavor, especially with the recent trend of foreign markets eating up familiar American properties. This modern update of The Mummy centers around some adventurers and military personnel (Cruise, Anabelle Wallis, Courtney B. Vance, Jake Johnson, probably a few others) that stumble upon a mysterious tomb during a trip to Egypt. Of course, this unexpected discovery ends up turning into a real issue when this motley crew of overly curious mortals find out they've woken up an ancient Egyptian princess (Star Trek Beyond's Sofia Boutella) that possesses supernatural abilities. The princess, who had been forcefully locked in a tomb for thousands of years due to her unrelenting thirst for power, is understandably pissed and decides to go on a vengeance-driven quest to destroy the world as we know it. Now, it's up to the morons that unleashed this ancient evil to try and put a stop to her dastardly plans before mankind becomes extinct.

While The Mummy is expected to do well overseas thanks to Cruise's superstar status, its domestic BO prospects are a lot murkier. Cruise still has a fair amount of clout stateside (4 of his last 5 starring vehicles have cleared $80 mil), but the bizarre amount of backlash from fans of the 1999 Brendan Fraser-led version, relatively bad reviews (28% on RT) and direct competition from Wonder Woman make this a potential bomb in the making. While I'm certainly not as high on this as I was a few months ago, I think Cruise's presence will be enough to prevent The Mummy from being a complete failure. I'm expecting an OW of $33 mil, 7 Top 5 points, 3 PTA, a user rating of 6.6 and depending on WOM, a final BO tally between $90 and $115 mil. The Mummy is not an outrageous pick in either format, but there are certainly safer picks in the 2nd-tier blockbuster $17-27 (War for the Planet of the Apes, The Emoji Movie,Dunkirk) price range.


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After dipping their toes into the world of psychological horror last winter with the Puritan-set chiller The Witch, indie specialty studio A24 is giving it another go with Trey Edward Shults' It Comes at Night (A24).

It Come at Night tells the story of a family (Joel Edgerton, Carmen Ejogo, Kelvin Harrison Jr.) that stays holed up in their desolate home to protect themselves from an unknown entity that's terrorizing the outside world. Once they let a young couple (Christopher Abbott, Riley Keough) into their seemingly impenetrable fortress in the middle of the woods, paranoia and fear stemming from the presence of their mysterious guests causes them to unravel.

On paper, It Comes at Night seems like excellent counterprogramming. The full-length trailer has picked up some buzz online since it was released in early May, the reviews have been strong (84% on RT) and most importantly, it's the first true horror/thriller release of the summer. However, A24's track record with wide releases is sketchy as hell (The Witch is their only wide release to gross more than $5 mil in its OW) and the fact that is being promoted as more of a psychological mindfuck thriller than a straight-up horror movie significantly lowers its odds of overperforming. I think it will end up doing alright this weekend before poor WOM (atmospheric thrillers usually get crushed by mainstream audiences) causes it to die a fast, brutal death. I'll predict an OW of $7 mil, 1 top 5 point, 0 PTA, a user rating around 7.0 and a final BO tally around $19 mil for It Comes at Night. Despite my skepticism, I wouldn't be at all shocked if this ended up beating its modest expectations, so if you're a dice-rolling motherfucker and have $6-7 to spare, put it on your slate and hope that you can talk all sorts of shit to the more timid lads that avoided it a few weeks from now.


Limited Releases:
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It's summer, so you know what that means?!??!?! OBLIGATORY BRITISH PERIOD PIECE TIME BITCHES. My Cousin Rachel (Fox Searchlight) isn't your 82-year old, Earl Grey-drinking great aunt's 15th-century costume drama. It's got some juicy shit like deception, promiscuity and potential murder. How scandalous!

As recently as 2 weeks ago, I figured My Cousin Rachel would do pretty well. It's got the backing of an established specialty studio in Fox Searchlight, a star in Rachel Weisz that has a solid following in the arthouse community and is a remake of a 1952 film that got nominated for 4 Academy Awards. Then I saw that it was being released in around 500 theaters and that optimism immediately went up in flames. It might squeak out a PTA point this weekend given the questionable wide releases on the schedule and net you a respectable user rating, but with its semi-wide release and price tag ($4, which is the same as pretty much every other buzz-about indie release this season), My Cousin Rachel is probably not worth the risk. Skip it.


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Thanks to Netflix's spending spree at the festival this year, Beatriz at Dinner (Roadside Attractions) is the 1st beloved Sundance acquisition to actually hit theaters this year. This social comedy from director Miguel Arteta and writer Mike White-who previously teamed-up on early 2000's indie favorites Chuck & Buck and The Good Girl-focuses on Beatriz (Salma Hayek), a Mexican-born holistic medicine practitioner that's invited to her wealthy clients Cathy and Grant (Connie Britton, David Warsofsky) upscale dinner party after her car breaks down at their home. Soon after the guests start arriving, the racial tension stars building and despite her best efforts to remain calm, Beatriz is forced to take a stand against Grant's antagonistic boss (John Lithgow). With its strong reviews (80% on RT) and a story centering around race relations that's bound to be resonant in Trump-era America, Beatriz at Dinner seems poised to be a PTA winner. Outside of A Ghost Story , Wind River and possibly The Big Sick, I think Beatriz at Dinner will be the strongest PTA pick of the June-August season. I think it's a near-lock to pick up 5 PTA points this weekend and depending on Roadside's expansion plans over the next few weeks, I think it could manage to get as many 12-14. At just $3 in ULT, I think Beatriz at Dinner is a massive steal and one of the few films that absolutely needs to be on your slate this season.
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Beatriz at Dinner isn't the only Sundance acquisition rolling into theaters on the 2nd weekend of June. The Hero (The Orchard), the latest from I'll See You in My Dreams director Brett Haley, is also entering the specialty market this weekend. Longtime character actor Sam Elliott gets a rare lead role in this dramedy about a former Western star that has entered his twilight years as a shell of his former self. With his acting career pretty much in the gutter, he spends his days getting stoned with his former co-star (Nick Offerman) and waxing poetic about his former glory. Upon being diagnosed with cancer, he re-ignites his zest for life by entering a romantic relationship with a much-younger woman (Laura Prepon), attempting to make amends with his long-estranged daughter (Krysten Ritter, best known for being the only actress under 40 that Boosh speaks favorably of) and seeking out a final role to give himself a triumphant swan song. The Hero may lack the unique premise or timeliness of Beatriz at Dinner, but the solid reviews (71% on RT) and buzz around Elliott's performance should be enough for it to do pretty well. I'm predicting 3 or 4 PTA points and a user rating around 6.9 for this low-budget, feel-good flick. If you need a cheap PTA pick to round out your slate, The Hero should be able to deliver the goods.


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In a weekend that boasts a pair of potential PTA studs, Miles (Freestyle Releasing) is the odd man out. There's pretty much no buzz around it, the supporting cast is essentially a who's who of 50-60 something comedy character actors (Molly Shannon, Paul Reiser, Stephen Root) that don't bring in audiences on their own and the premise (a high school senior from middle America moves to Chicago to play on a prolific girl's volleyball team with the hopes of obtaining a scholarship to pay for his college tuition) is unlikely to resonate with the indie crowd. I'll be flabbergasted if this registers any PTA points or ends up with a user rating higher than 7 (it currently holds a 6.8 with less than 100 votes). Unless you're desperate for a user rating boost in ULT with the final $2 of your budget, there's really no reason to put Miles on any of your slates.


Weekend Predictions:
1.Wonder Woman $54 mil
2.The Mummy $33 mil
3.Captain Underpants $15 mil
4.POTC: Dead Men Tell No Tales $9 mil
5.It Comes at Night $7 mil

PTA: Beatriz at Dinner, Wonder Woman, The Hero, The Mummy, Captain Underpants

Tune in next week when Shryke makes his triumphant return to this column by previewing Pixar's latest merchandising opportunity.. I mean sequel Cars 3, the all-female follow-up to Very Bad Things that Sony decided to name Rough Night for legal purposes, the long-delayed 2pac biopic All Eyez on Me from the brilliant mind of Next Day Air director Benny Boom and 47 Meters Down, which is like Open Water except with Mandy Moore.
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 6/9

Post by Shrykespeare »

transformers2 wrote: (Krysten Ritter, best known for being the only actress under 40 that Boosh speaks favorably of)
I don't know about y'all, but this gets my nomination for greatest line on the boards this year.

:lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 6/9

Post by Buscemi »

Not true. There have been times when I've spoken fondly of Kat Dennings (2 Broke Girls was a terrible show but at least she tried).

Meanwhile, some theatre counts:
The Mummy - 4,000 (why?)
Megan Leavey - 1,500 (via FilmJerk)
It Comes at Night - 750 (via FilmJerk, though I've also read 2,500 from HSX)
My Cousin Rachel - 500
The Hero - 4 (via FilmJerk)
Beatriz at Dinner - 3 (via FilmJerk)
Miles - 2 (via FilmJerk)
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 6/9

Post by numbersix »

Have Kat Dennings and Krysten Ritter been in a film together? If so Boosch would explode.

Great column, Tranny. I too was high on The Mummy but response over the past few weeks have been tepid and the reviews seal the deal. It will make it to $100m if it's lucky.

It Comes at Night is definitely a wild-card. $7/$19m would actually be a good result!

As for Beatriz at Dinner, I can't see it making PTA points over multiple weekends - 8 max

Weekend Predictions
1. Wonder Woman $50 mil
2.The Mummy $35 mil
3.Captain Underpants $13 mil
4.POTC: Dead Men Tell No Tales $9 mil
5.It Comes at Night $7 mil

PTA: Wonder Woman, Beatriz at Dinner, The Hero, The Mummy, Captain Underpants

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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 6/9

Post by Buscemi »

That's why I've been writing screenplays, Six! ;) You should see my intended cast for the 400+ page screenplay I wrote earlier this year.
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 6/9

Post by Shrykespeare »

Celebrity milestone birthdays:

Ron Livingston turned 50 on 6/5
Robert Engulnd turned 70 on 6/6
Paul Giamatti turned 50 on 6/6
Milo Ventimiglia turns 40 on 6/7
Jerry Stiller turns 90 on 6/8
Kanye West turns 40 on 6/8
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 6/9

Post by BanksIsDaFuture »

The similarities between the posters of The Mummy and My Cousin Rachel is hilarious.
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 6/9

Post by Buscemi »

BanksIsDaFuture wrote:The similarities between the posters of The Mummy and My Cousin Rachel is hilarious.
Especially considering how the 1999 Mummy was Weisz's breakout film. I don't see this one having the same effect for Annabelle Wallis.
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 6/9

Post by Walleye413 »

I've learned to never really count old Tom Cruise out, but boy does the Mummy look like a dud waiting to happen. I'm sure they were hoping that Wonder Woman would be another DC bomb as well, but oops they're going to get swamped this week. What's the lowest 2nd weekend Superhero movie drop? Anything less than 50%? Cause I think this might be the perfect storm where that happens this week.

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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 6/9

Post by Buscemi »

Look's like the smallest superhero drop was the 1989 Batman, with 26%.
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 6/9

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Buscemi wrote:Look's like the smallest superhero drop was the 1989 Batman, with 26%.
Yeah, but circumstances were so different back then. There were a lot fewer movies, and plus, Batman was really the first superhero movie to hit theaters, like ever (besides the Reeve Superman movies.) Plus Michael Keaton, in many people's opinions still the best Batman ever.
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 6/9

Post by Buscemi »

He asked for the smallest. No exceptions. :?
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 6/9

Post by transformers2 »

Walleye413 wrote:I've learned to never really count old Tom Cruise out, but boy does the Mummy look like a dud waiting to happen. I'm sure they were hoping that Wonder Woman would be another DC bomb as well, but oops they're going to get swamped this week. What's the lowest 2nd weekend Superhero movie drop? Anything less than 50%? Cause I think this might be the perfect storm where that happens this week.
The best 2nd weekend hold for a recent superhero movie was...... wait for it..... THE AMAZING SPIDER-MAN????? It dropped 44.2% back in July 2012.
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 6/9

Post by Buscemi »

But The Amazing Spider-Man opened on a Tuesday, allowing its drop to be smaller than it really was. The first six days represented something like half of the final gross.
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 6/9

Post by Walleye413 »

Dang, I know circumstances are different, but I'm pretty shocked on both of those. I remember the hype for the original Batman, but even then I thought it wasn't nearly as good as people seemed to be acting. Batman Returns - however. Michelle Pfeiffer, Danny Devito, Christopher Walken. What a movie! And the Amazing Spider-man? So I assume the excellent re-boot with Andrew Garfield and Emma Stone? Never would have guessed that.
Alright, I'm calling it. 48% drop for Wonder Woman.

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