Walleye's Weekly Winners: The Films of 6/2

Mr. Columnist himself presents weekly analysis and tips.

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Walleye's Weekly Winners: The Films of 6/2

Post by Walleye413 »

Yowza. May receipts are down 22% from last year, and a horrid 44% from the year before that. I’ve got to say when we did the draft this year, I thought this would be a weaker year all around Box Office wise, and sadly that has proven to be very accurate. Pirates’ lackluster opening could be expected, but Baywatch? Nobody expected it to bomb that bad! And bomb it did. I bet the drop-off for both movies is terrible this next weekend as well. If only there were a Superhero who could save the summer from blah sequels and bad returns! But wait –what’s that on the horizon? A scantily clad hero swooping in to save the day? Yes, our hero is here ladies and gentlemen. Give thanks for Captain Underpants!

Maybe not the hero you were expecting, but this is the hero you need! Captain Underpants is the latest Dreamworks animation title that’s going to do way better than we all think it would/should. The books it’s based on have been around for forever. Their moment has passed, they should have done this movie 8 years ago! But – it doesn’t matter. Kids haven’t had anything good to watch at the movies since Guardians, and Beauty before that! Well, and the Boss Baby. Which wasn’t good but still had an amazing Box Office run all things considered. Dreamworks strikes again. If you’re not familiar with the Captain Underpants series – it really is pretty clever. I’ve read several of them with my kids over the years and they made me chuckle. Definitely falls into the category of “Yeah, I’d sit through that with my kids”, because I’ve sat through so much worse. With parents not totally dragging their feet, and a positive reaction from kids this movie will do well in a crowded Summer, especially getting out first before Cars and Minions swoop in. I’ll predict a 30 million opening weekend, and final take of $125 million. That’ll get you 7 Top 5 points and 3-5 PTA points as well. It’s underpriced in almost all leagues, and if you can get it on your slates you should.

The same cannot be said for 3 Idiotas. Yes, we should all learn that there is a very under-served Latino population that wants something other than a Fast and Furious movie. But I don’t think this one serves you well for game purposes. It’s coming out in a few hundred screens, so for Ultimate you’ll get no PTA points. The user rating is 4! 4! Heck, Twilight has a 5! And reviews don’t sound good. 3 Idiotas is based on a much better Bollywood movie of the same name/plot/etc. I wouldn’t even take this one in Box Office, it’s not the second coming of How to be a Latin Lover. Wait for something better.

Which could be Dean, except. . . 15 screens. 15. Why are these art house movies so cruel to us this week? Dean, by most accounts, appears to be a good little movie from the hands of the uber-talented Demetri Martin. It’s a first effort from him, and I expect him to only get better. This has your standard comedy/drama plot about love, loss, and growing up. The cast is pretty stellar, but again: 15. Plus a 6 IMDB rating makes this one a hard pass as well.

Which leaves the underpriced Past Life as your best option for PTA love this week. Unless I’m mistaken, it’s $2 in the game, and you won’t get a better combo of events to score some points from a $2 movie in this game. It’s a foreign film, with a holocaust connection. Not the most uplifting of films for the summer season, but it’s got a 7 IMDB rating and if it comes out on your standard 3-4 screens it will get you 4 PTA points as well. That’s a bargain. Pick it up.

But the final underpriced movie of the week is – surprisingly – Wonder Woman. When was the last time a DC movie was underpriced? The Dark Knight? Wonder Woman had little buzz a year ago, in spite of Gal Gadot being one of the best things about Batman v. Superman. DC just kept putting out such garbage. One of the podcasts I listen to has been filled with DC insiders quietly trashing on Wonder Woman for months as well. Well, how do you like her now? The best reviewed film in the Marvel/DC superhero world! A revelatory performance from Gadot. And a crappy month of May to whet the appetites of Americans looking for any national hero they can cheer for. Wonder Woman is going to be a massive hit. It’ll make $105 million it’s opening weekend (yeah, I’m calling three digits) and it will clear $275 million when it’s all said and done. Not 300 million, but I wouldn’t be too shocked at this point. Plus the Top 5 points (13-15) the PTA (8-10) and a solid IMDB score. If you didn’t put this Superhero on your slates, you have chosen poorly. Pick it up before it’s too late.

And that’s it for this week. Next week sees Tom Cruise trying to work his magic in The Mummy (hint, he’ll lose to the second weekend of Wonder Woman) plus a horror movie and a war hero movie. My money is on the dog.

Top 5
Wonder Woman
Captain Underpants
POTC
Guardians of the Galaxy
Nothing else deserves to be here (except maybe Everything, Everything)

PTA
Wonder Woman
Captain Underpants
Past Life
Dean
Paris Can Wait

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Re: Walleye's Weekly Winners: The Films of 6/2

Post by Buscemi »

I think Wonder Woman will hit $300 million. Suicide Squad made $325 million and the in thing online right now is to hate on that film.

And the people hating on the film without seeing it (mainly MRA's) were never the target audience anyway nor would they ever gone to see it (besides, I bet Baywatch is their kind of film and we saw how that did).
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Re: Walleye's Weekly Winners: The Films of 6/2

Post by numbersix »

Wonder Woman! That RT rating is gonna do DC the world of good. $100m might be a stretch because of the inevitable backlash, but it could come close, and hold well because The Mummy is the only real competition.

Captain Underpants doesn't seem to be getting much traction. I could be wrong, but being the only animation so far this summer doesn't guarantee anything.

As for PTA, I still think Dean has some potential, despite its PTA being a tad too high. What is strange is that CBS are doing this solo. Guess Lionsgate weren't interested?

Top 5
1. Wonder Woman - $90m
2. POTC 5 - $28m
3. Captain Underpants $25m
4. Guardians of the Galaxy - $10m
5. Baywatch - $9.5m

PTA: Wonder Woman, Dean, Captain Underpants, POTC, Past Life
Last edited by numbersix on June 1st, 2017, 5:46 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Walleye's Weekly Winners: The Films of 6/2

Post by Buscemi »

Dean's still a Lionsgate release, with DCP's having Lionsgate trailers as part of the file programming. Box Office Mojo seems to have been listing CBS titles separately lately for some bizarre reason (kind of like how they'll list Vertical titles sometimes as just "Independent").

As for the film itself, it looks like it's basically being dumped. The 15 theatre opening, combined with mixed reviews (Demetri Martin as always been a love him or hate him figure, mainly due to his style of humor) and Lionsgate holding it back from last Oscar season in favor of Patriots Day, suggests that it's not going to get much traction against 3 Idiotas or the not in the game Band Aid or Churchill on the limited front.
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Re: Walleye's Weekly Winners: The Films of 6/2

Post by Shrykespeare »

I've seen the trailer for 3 Idiotas in front of the last THREE blockbuster movies I've seen in theaters this summer (Guardians, King Arthur, Pirates), which is more than I saw for the Latin Lover trailer. Don't know if that means anything, but it's a safe bet people know about it.
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Re: Walleye's Weekly Winners: The Films of 6/2

Post by Buscemi »

3 Idiotas is a remake of one of India's most beloved films in recent years (back in 2009, the original made $6.5 million in the US alone). The IMDb rating is iffy but I believe there was some hate-voting on it from the original's fans (IMDb's bigger in India than Mexico). I think the growing Mexican-American audience combined with the known property should allow for a $3-4 million opening.
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Re: Walleye's Weekly Winners: The Films of 6/2

Post by Shrykespeare »

Theater Counts:

Wonder Woman - 4,165
Captain Underpants - 3,434
3 Idiotas - 349
Dean - 15
Past Life - n/a


Next week:

The Mummy - 4,000




Celebrity milestone birthdays:

Ted Levine turned 60 on 5/29
Morgan Freeman turned 80 on 6/1
Jonathan Pryce turned 60 on 6/1
Sarah Wayne Callies turned 40 on 6/1
Sally Kellerman turned 80 on 6/2
Zachary Quinto turned 40 on 6/2
Happy 60th birthday Jet Li! (4/26/23)

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Re: Walleye's Weekly Winners: The Films of 6/2

Post by Buscemi »

Ted Levine's a lot younger than I thought.

And I think I saw on FilmJerk that Past Life is getting 4 theatres (3 in Los Angeles, 1 in New York).
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Re: Walleye's Weekly Winners: The Films of 6/2

Post by W »

Buscemi wrote:Ted Levine's a lot younger than I thought.
So he was in his mid 40s when Monk started? That's crazy.
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Re: Walleye's Weekly Winners: The Films of 6/2

Post by Shrykespeare »

W wrote:
Buscemi wrote:Ted Levine's a lot younger than I thought.
So he was in his mid 40s when Monk started? That's crazy.
Yup. And in his mid-30s when he spake the immortal line, "It puts the lotion on its skin, or else it gets the hose again."
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Re: Walleye's Weekly Winners: The Films of 6/2

Post by Shrykespeare »

Friday Estimates

Wonder Woman, $38.8M
Captain Underpants, $8M
POTC 5, $6.3M
GOTG 2, $2.7M
Baywatch, $2.6M
Alien: Covenant, $1.1M
Everything, Everything, $1.1M



Weekend Projections:

Wonder Woman, $101M
Captain Underpants, $26M
POTC 5, $21.8M
GOTG 2, $10M
Baywatch, $8.5M
Alien: Covenant, $3.9M
Everything Everything, $3.1M
Snatched, $1.3M
Wimpy Kid 3, $1.3M
King Arthur, $1.2M

3 Idiotas, $600K
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Re: Walleye's Weekly Winners: The Films of 6/2

Post by Buscemi »

I guess the failure of 3 Idiotas kills any future plans to remake classic Indian films.
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Re: Walleye's Weekly Winners: The Films of 6/2

Post by Shrykespeare »

Buscemi wrote:I guess the failure of 3 Idiotas kills any future plans to remake classic Indian films.
You'd think, but many studio execs are not known for their smarts or their savvy.
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Re: Walleye's Weekly Winners: The Films of 6/2

Post by Shrykespeare »

Weekend Estimates

Top 10:
5 points - Wonder Woman, $100.5M
4 points - Captain Underpants, $23.5M
3 points - Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales, $21.6M
2 points - Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2, $9.7M
1 point - Baywatch, $8.5M
Alien: Covenant, $4.0M
Everything Everything, $3.3M
Snatched, $1.3M
Diary of a Wimpy Kid: The Long Haul, $1.2M
King Arthur: Legend of the Sword, $1.2M

13. 3 Idiotas, $600K


PTA:
5 points - Wonder Woman, $24,131
4 points - Captain Underpants, $6,843
3 points - Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales, $5,504
2 points - Past Life, $4,054
1 point - Dean, $4,024
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Re: Walleye's Weekly Winners: The Films of 6/2

Post by numbersix »

Wow, didn't see Wonder Woman crossing $100m. I hope the predictions aren't just Warner bumping the number for headlines, and in reality it came under. Still, what a performance and saviour for DC. Will be interesting to see what kind of legs it'll have, although I think it's good for about $250m. MY full year slate needed that.

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