Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 5/25, 5/26

Mr. Columnist himself presents weekly analysis and tips.

Moderators: Buscemi, BarcaRulz, Geezer, W

User avatar
transformers2
John Rambo
Posts: 7730
Joined: October 23rd, 2009, 5:15 pm

Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 5/25, 5/26

Post by transformers2 »

It was a photo finish between newcomer Alien: Covenant and Marvel powerhouse Guardians of the Galaxy Vol.2 for the box office crown, but despite falling short of its initial Friday projections, the Xenomorphs came out on top. The latest installment of Ridley Scott's iconic sci-fi/horror series grossed $36.1 mil in its debut frame, which is about $15 mil less than 2012's Prometheus made during its OW, while Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 held strong once again with an impressive $34.6 mil in its 3rd weekend of release. Aside from the drama at the top, it was a pretty nondescript weekend with the other two wide releases (teen tearjerker Everything, Everything and unwanted sequel Diary of a Wimpy Kid: The Long Haul) failing to make a lot of noise and all of the non-Guardians holdovers (Snatched, King Arthur, Lowriders) suffering their expected 50%+ drops.


Wide Releases:

Image
The wishes of slo-mo running enthusiasts and the entire Hasselhoff-loving nation of Germany have been answered. That's right boys and girls, Baywatch (Paramount) is back! The film adaptation of the long-running action melodrama series that inexplicably became a worldwide sensation is finally making its way to theaters on Thursday after spending nearly 4 years in development. This version of Baywatch sees the titular elite lifeguard force (Dwayne Johnson, Zac Efron, Alexandra Daddario, Kelly Roarbach, Jon Bass, Ilfnesh Hadrea) gets their tranquil existence turned upside down when a nightclub owner (Bollywood and Quantico star Priyanka Chopra in her English-language film debut) brings drugs and crime to their beach. Baywatch is the latest vintage television property to be re-imagined as an R-rated comedy on the big screen and given the pedigree of the project, I expect its BO performance to be much more in-line with the Jump Street series than this past March's notable bomb CHiPs. Johnson's films have been consistently profitable over the past few years (2014's Hercules was his last film to gross under $100 mil in the US), the marketing campaign has been aggressive and even though the early reviews have been poor (11% on RT), the film has the benefit of arriving in a marketplace that's completely devoid of mass-appealing comedies. I'm predicting an OW of $32 mil, 9 Top 5 points, 6 PTA and a final BO gross of around $120 mil. With a mid-tier price tag ($19 in BO and $18 in ULT), I believe that Baywatch is a solid pickup in both formats.



Image
Thanks to the absurd overseas success of 2011's On Stranger Tides ($804 mil), Jack Sparrow is back for yet another adventure in Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales (Disney). This go-round everyone's favorite quirky alcoholic swashbuckler played by the incomparable Johnny Depp teams up with a young astronomer (The Maze Runner's Kaya Scoderlario) and the son (The Giver's Brenton Thwaites) of old friends Will Turner (Orlando Bloom) and Elizabeth Swann (Keira Knightley) on a journey to find a powerful artifact known as the Trident of Poseidon that will help him defeat an old nemesis (Javier Bardem) that's hellbent on revenge after good ol' captain Jack banished him to the Bermuda Triangle years earlier. In my eyes, Pirates is the biggest wild card of this summer's blockbusters. On one hand, it's the 5th film in a long-running franchise that's arriving 6 years after the previous installment- which was the lowest-grossing in the series domestically. On the other hand, POTC is still a well-known property with a solid fanbase and the trailers make it look like a return to the series' straight-up fun roots, which could lead to an uptick in BO. In other words, I wouldn't be at all surprised if it became either the next Mission Impossible: Ghost Protocol or Independence Day: Resurgence. I'm expecting to rake in $80 mil over Memorial Day weekend and wrap up its run with 11 Top 5 points, 8 PTA, and a BO tally of approximately $190 mil. I skipped Pirates in favor of Wonder Woman and Transformers on my slates, but with its somewhat reasonable price tag ($27 in ULT, $29 BO) and sky-high ceiling, you could do a whole lot worse.



Limited Release:
Image
May has been full of PTA duds so far and The Here After (Parade Deck) doesn't seem like its going to able to break that streak. While it has gotten decent reviews (71% on RT) and won numerous awards (Best Picture, Best Supporting Actor, Best Director) at the Swedish equivalent of the Academy Awards back in 2015, it's a foreign-language film with no real buzz surrounding it being released by a virtually unknown distributor. It might be to pick up a PTA point or two in this weekend's barren marketplace, but to be honest, that might even be a stretch. Unless you're absolutely desperate for a $2 filler with a respectable IMDB score in ULT, I wouldn't bother with The Here After.


Weekend Projections:
1.POTC: Dead Men Tell No Tales $72 mil ($80 mil 4-day)
2.Baywatch $32 mil ($39 mil 4-day/$42 mil 5-day)
3.Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 $19 mil ($23 mil 4-day)
4.Alien: Covenant $15 mil ($19 mil 4-day)
5.Everything, Everything $6.5 mil ($9 mil 4-day)

PTA: Pirates, Baywatch, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2, Alien: Covenant, The Here After

Tune in next week when Walleye breaks down DC's latest potential shitfest Wonder Woman, the misadventures of flatulence-fueled superhero Captain Underpants and yet another batch of poopy limited releases with little-to-no PTA potential.
BRING BRENDAN FRASER BACK TO THE BIG SCREEN DAMN IT
Check out my blog http://maitlandsmadness.blogspot.com/
Movies,Music,Sports and More!

Buscemi
CONGRATS! You may now chose your own rank!
Posts: 16164
Joined: October 21st, 2009, 11:14 am
Location: Baltimore State Hospital for the Criminally Insane

Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 5/25, 5/26

Post by Buscemi »

So you're doing the thread but you're just going to say negative things about the movies that don't appeal to you? Well, at least went a post without saying fuck so that's an improvement.

Anyway, Dead Men Tell No Tales is apparently not much of an improvement from On Stranger Tides (they should have stopped with At World's End as planned, it had a closed ending and everything). And Baywatch is a disaster by the looks of it with a 33 on Metacritic (I won't use Rotten Tomatoes scores as they are nothing more than marketing tools). Too bad Long Strange Trip isn't in the game as that could have gotten a few PTA points despite the four hour run time.

And I would't describe next week's limited release in scatological terms. 3 Idiotas could get some PTA points and a decent box office take despite weak early word while Dean should be worth a point or two. Surprised Band Aid isn't in the game as that could have gotten a point or two.
Everything on this post is strictly the opinion and only the opinion of Buscemi.

Spotify: http://open.spotify.com/user/1244530511 ... 9GBj16VEmr

User avatar
transformers2
John Rambo
Posts: 7730
Joined: October 23rd, 2009, 5:15 pm

Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 5/25, 5/26

Post by transformers2 »

Buscemi wrote:So you're doing the thread but you're just going to say negative things about the movies that don't appeal to you? Well, at least went a post without saying fuck so that's an improvement.
Uh are you referring to the poop jokes I made about next week's films (which was inspired by the presence of Captain Underpants on the slate FYI, I actually want to see Wonder Woman and Dean) or me saying The Here After- a film I knew literally nothing about it before I wrote this column- isn't a good pick in our game?

Also this is super ironic, considering that you go onto rip Baywatch in the next paragraph.
BRING BRENDAN FRASER BACK TO THE BIG SCREEN DAMN IT
Check out my blog http://maitlandsmadness.blogspot.com/
Movies,Music,Sports and More!

Buscemi
CONGRATS! You may now chose your own rank!
Posts: 16164
Joined: October 21st, 2009, 11:14 am
Location: Baltimore State Hospital for the Criminally Insane

Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 5/25, 5/26

Post by Buscemi »

I'm not ripping into Baywatch. I'm stating what the critics are saying (and outside of Indiewire/The Playlist, whose idea of taste often conflicts with everyone's else, they hate it).

But toilet humor doesn't fit these articles (and Captain Underpants was more than just toilet humor, they were some of the most anarchic books of their era). Keep it professional.
Everything on this post is strictly the opinion and only the opinion of Buscemi.

Spotify: http://open.spotify.com/user/1244530511 ... 9GBj16VEmr

User avatar
Walleye413
Marv
Posts: 1761
Joined: November 17th, 2009, 1:17 am

Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 5/25, 5/26

Post by Walleye413 »

And now for something completely different:

I know the cast of Baywatch is more than just eye candy: But dang they are seriously good looking. Even by Hollywood standards. Best looking cast of the summer? Do they beat out GOTG?

Buscemi
CONGRATS! You may now chose your own rank!
Posts: 16164
Joined: October 21st, 2009, 11:14 am
Location: Baltimore State Hospital for the Criminally Insane

Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 5/25, 5/26

Post by Buscemi »

I can give you Dwayne Johnson (he can work those pecs) but Zac Efron seems to be overcompensating (you're a song and dance man, Zac, not a bro) and Daddario I guess is okay but I'm not a fan of her acting-wise.
Everything on this post is strictly the opinion and only the opinion of Buscemi.

Spotify: http://open.spotify.com/user/1244530511 ... 9GBj16VEmr

User avatar
Shrykespeare
Site Admin
Posts: 14273
Joined: September 12th, 2009, 11:38 pm
Location: Glendale, AZ

Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 5/25, 5/26

Post by Shrykespeare »

Walleye413 wrote:And now for something completely different:

I know the cast of Baywatch is more than just eye candy: But dang they are seriously good looking. Even by Hollywood standards. Best looking cast of the summer? Do they beat out GOTG?
How many good looking guys are in GOTG outside Star-Lord and Gamora? Unless you're into Taserface...




Only one celebrity birthday this week:

Dana Ashbrook turns 50 on 5/24
Happy 60th birthday Jet Li! (4/26/23)

Buscemi
CONGRATS! You may now chose your own rank!
Posts: 16164
Joined: October 21st, 2009, 11:14 am
Location: Baltimore State Hospital for the Criminally Insane

Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 5/25, 5/26

Post by Buscemi »

As John Hodgman would tell you, Kurt Russell is a very handsome man.
Everything on this post is strictly the opinion and only the opinion of Buscemi.

Spotify: http://open.spotify.com/user/1244530511 ... 9GBj16VEmr

User avatar
Chienfantome
Captain Jack Sparrow
Posts: 9967
Joined: May 29th, 2010, 4:22 am
Location: Paris, France
Contact:

Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 5/25, 5/26

Post by Chienfantome »

Gotta be honest. No matter what the reviews will say, I'll be there for Baywatch. The world needs beautiful bodies and faces to cheer up a bit. I know I do.
Fluctuat nec mergitur

User avatar
numbersix
Darth Vader
Posts: 11545
Joined: October 21st, 2009, 2:34 pm

Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 5/25, 5/26

Post by numbersix »

Will this be the Summer that ends lazy blockbusters? Only GOTG has performed well so far, and nothing on paper looks set to surprise, unless Wonder Women gets every woman and girl and pre-moaning fanboy in the theatres.

This weekend looks set to disappoint. I was expecting Baywatch to kill it, but those horrible reviews will ensure it's no 21 Jump Street. It may not even hit 100m.

And I remain unconvinced that Pirates 5 will cross £200m. UDM is the only person in the world who still gives a shit, and he can't afford to buy 20 million tickets.

1.POTC: Dead Men Tell No Tales $65 mil ($77 mil 4-day)
2.Baywatch $30 mil ($37 mil 4-day/$40 mil 5-day)
3.Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 $18 mil ($22 mil 4-day)
4.Alien: Covenant $15 mil ($19 mil 4-day)
5.Everything, Everything $5.5 mil ($6.5 mil 4-day)

Buscemi
CONGRATS! You may now chose your own rank!
Posts: 16164
Joined: October 21st, 2009, 11:14 am
Location: Baltimore State Hospital for the Criminally Insane

Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 5/25, 5/26

Post by Buscemi »

I think Wonder Woman outperforms those $65 million tracking numbers as the last two DC films opened to well over $100 million (and most of the Suicide Squad characters weren't as well-known as Wonder Woman) but I expect it to play like those instead of continuing to build in future weeks (though Suicide Squad held on for a while).

And with the trailer giving away everything (and looking more like a kid-friendly Kick-Ass than your friendly neighborhood webslinger), I can't see Spider-Man: Homecoming playing like Iron Man or Guardians of the Galaxy. I think it plays mid-level for the MCU.

I think we'll have to wait until July 21st to find that summer surprise. And I don't think it will be Dunkirk (this will make all its money in Europe).
Everything on this post is strictly the opinion and only the opinion of Buscemi.

Spotify: http://open.spotify.com/user/1244530511 ... 9GBj16VEmr

User avatar
W
Norman Bates
Posts: 7242
Joined: October 21st, 2009, 4:37 pm

Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 5/25, 5/26

Post by W »

I'm hoping for Baywatch to be the spiritual successor to Jump Street. I'm probably going to be disappointed, though.
Tenet: Criterion Edition. Now with more Backwards Man.

User avatar
BanksIsDaFuture
Jack Torrance
Posts: 6513
Joined: October 23rd, 2009, 4:09 pm

Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 5/25, 5/26

Post by BanksIsDaFuture »

Buscemi wrote: But toilet humor doesn't fit these articles (and Captain Underpants was more than just toilet humor, they were some of the most anarchic books of their era). Keep it professional.
I'm glad Busc is here to tell everyone how to write things the way he likes, especially since he's never done a column :roll:
Alexandra Daddario: Eyes of a Demon, Face of My Future Ex-Wife

Buscemi
CONGRATS! You may now chose your own rank!
Posts: 16164
Joined: October 21st, 2009, 11:14 am
Location: Baltimore State Hospital for the Criminally Insane

Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 5/25, 5/26

Post by Buscemi »

I've got other things going on. Besides, if I did write a column, it would never make the deadline and I'd spend too much time focusing on titles not in the game (I had no idea what's on the price list half the time).

Trust me, you do not want me to write a column.
Everything on this post is strictly the opinion and only the opinion of Buscemi.

Spotify: http://open.spotify.com/user/1244530511 ... 9GBj16VEmr

User avatar
undeadmonkey
Leon
Posts: 4413
Joined: October 22nd, 2009, 1:39 pm

Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 5/25, 5/26

Post by undeadmonkey »

all he was saying is 'stop judging people for how they write their column'

Post Reply