Walleye's Weekly Winners: The Films of 5/19

Mr. Columnist himself presents weekly analysis and tips.

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Walleye's Weekly Winners: The Films of 5/19

Post by Walleye413 »

Has the movie business really become this cliché? Every first weekend in May there’s a new Marvel movie that everyone flocks to. And the second weekend there’s a dud that everyone beats up. And the third weekend, there’s an under the radar hit that surprises before the fourth weekend gives us another Memorial Day weekend blockbuster.

Yes, American cinema is becoming that predictable. One of the reasons why I think this Summer will be a step back in terms of box office from last year. There will be much hand-wringing and soul searching done by movie executives, until next Summer when Sequels and Franchises bring everyone back in record numbers. And you’ll be able to cut and paste this article for the third weekend next year.

Still – I don’t want to sound too “Get off my lawn”-y, as I’m actually excited about 2 of the movies coming out this weekend. The “surprise” hit will be Alien: Covenant – the 8th movie in the Alien franchise, and the best one since Aliens. Which is part of the problem. Alien and Aliens are two of the best horror/sci-fi movies of all time. Aliens still holds up as one of the greatest sequels of all time (considered by many to be even better than the original.) Everyone keeps trying to get out of that shadow, but with Alien: Covenant Ridley Scott finally just chose to embrace it. The plot is simple – a bunch of humans go into space in order to get eaten/killed/French kissed by aliens. Terror ensues. This Alien seems to be hitting all the marks, and the advertising has been constant, with a clear “we’re sorry for Prometheus” vibe. It will do well. How well? I’m predicting it wins the weekend (No threepeat for you Guardians) with a 38 million dollar opening. And with good word of mouth I think it clears 125 million when all is said and done. That should also get you 8 Top 5 points and 6 PTA as well. It’s a great mid-range pick and worth considering on all slates. But if you’re deciding between this and Baywatch – Always choose the Rock!

The flop of the week will be Diary of a Wimpy Kid: The Long Haul. With Alicia Silverstone as the mom. Seriously, I had to stop and pause after that. I remember when she and Liv Tyler were the hot new things in the Aerosmith videos. Dang, I’m old. The plot of this movie is fairly pointless. It’s a Heffley family road trip. Think Vacation, without Christie Brinkley. Except, maybe Alicia is now Christie? How’s that for a plot twist! Regardless, there’s just no traction for this movie. Teens will all be at GOTG for a third time, or our next movie below. And kids just don’t love these books like they used to. It’ll break 10 million, maybe hit 11.5 for the weekend, before it quickly fades away. I’d say 29 million total, and just 2 Top 5 points, probably no PTA either. Avoid this one like you avoid sitting in the back middle seat on a long road trip.

The other “surprise” of the weekend will be Everything, Everything. These movies are something of a cliché as well – see Paper Towns, If I Stay. But cliché or not, this one is going to do quite well. The plot of this particular story finds Madeline as a teenager confined to live indoors, with filtered air, due to her severe allergies and illnesses. New neighbor Olly moves in next door and they fall in love in spite of these barriers – thus inspiring Madeline to risk her life in order to live it. Every teen I know that’s read this book loves it. And getting Rue from the Hunger Games to be the lead is a great move. For a budget of 8 million or so, you can make Everything, Everything, or The DUFF, or If I Stay, and you get 35 – 50 million of a return on that. It’s not groundbreaking, but I wish Hollywood would make more of these movies, or at least try more of this model. Not everything needs to be a blockbuster, or have a 175 million dollar budget (I’m looking at you King Arthur). Everything, Everything will beat out Diary for third place this weekend with a $14 million dollar opening. I don’t know that it will hit 50 million, maybe 42-43 when all is said and done. So that’s a few Top 5 points, maybe 1 or 2 PTA, and decent Box Office for a low cost wide release. I’d pick it (In Box Office for sure.)

And that, as they say, is that. No new PTA darlings on the horizon, so if you picked a winner last week, you’ll score again this week. Well done to you, good sir! Join us next week as The Rock and Johnny Depp flex their muscles – with poor Zac Efron sitting on the side hoping for some love.

Top 5
Alien: Covenant
GOTG 2
Everything, Everything
Diary of a Wimpy Kid: The Long Haul
Snatched

PTA
Alien: Covenant
Paris Can Wait
Everything, Everything
Lowriders
The Lovers

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Re: Walleye's Weekly Winners: The Films of 5/19

Post by Shrykespeare »

Great column, Walleye!

I may indeed pick Everything Squared, and I plan to blame you if it backfires.
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Re: Walleye's Weekly Winners: The Films of 5/19

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Yeah, I remember when Alicia Silverstone was young and hot too. Damn, what happened to us?

I think you're right on Alien Covenant's opening, but don't think it's going to get the kind of WOM you expect. Those frustrated with Prometheus will find similar problems, and it has been performing worse than Prometheus internationally. I actually think it'll hit $40m but barely break $100m.

Good points on Diary 4. Kinda wondering why I picked it for the yearly draft. Hopefully it'll make $30m in total and not be a complete disaster. Everything Everything feels like it has less buzz than other comparables, but what the hell do I know? I'm old!

Top 5
1. Alien: Covenant - $40m
2. GOTG 2 - $32m
3. Everything, Everything - $11m
4. Diary of a Wimpy Kid: The Long Haul - $10m
5. Snatched - $9m

PTA: Alien: Covenant, Paris Can Wait, Guardians, Everything, Everything, Lowriders.

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Re: Walleye's Weekly Winners: The Films of 5/19

Post by Walleye413 »

Shrykespeare wrote:Great column, Walleye!

I may indeed pick Everything Squared, and I plan to blame you if it backfires.
Ack the pressure :)

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Re: Walleye's Weekly Winners: The Films of 5/19

Post by Shrykespeare »

Celebrity birthdays:

George Carlin would have turned 80 on 5/12
Odeya Rush turned 20 on 5/12
Samantha Morton turned 40 on 5/13
Lynn Collins turned 40 on 5/16
Melanie Lynskey turned 40 on 5/16
Judge Reinhold turned 60 on 5/21
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Re: Walleye's Weekly Winners: The Films of 5/19

Post by Shrykespeare »

Theater counts:

Alien: Covenant - 3,760
Diary of a Wimpy Kid - 3,157
Everything Everything - 2,801


Next week:

POTC: DMTNT - 4,000+
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Re: Walleye's Weekly Winners: The Films of 5/19

Post by Buscemi »

Baywatch is getting 3,400 theatres on Thursday.

I had to do a double take on that abbreviated title.
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Re: Walleye's Weekly Winners: The Films of 5/19

Post by W »

Buscemi wrote:I had to do a double take on that abbreviated title.
Yep.

And at first glance I thought Shryke's avatar was James Spader.
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Re: Walleye's Weekly Winners: The Films of 5/19

Post by Buscemi »

Estimates from the openers (via Deadline):

Alien: Covenant $15.2 million Friday, $39-40 million weekend (B Cinemascore)
Everything, Everything $4.6 million Friday, $11.7 million weekend (A- Cinemascore)
Diary of a Wimpy Kid: The Long Haul $2 million Friday, $7.1 million weekend (B Cinemascore)
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Re: Walleye's Weekly Winners: The Films of 5/19

Post by Shrykespeare »

Friday Estimates (BOM):

Alien: Covenant, $15.3M
Guardians 2, $8.8M
Everything, $4.7M
Snatched, $2.3M
Wimpy Kid, $2M
King Arthur, $1.9M
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Re: Walleye's Weekly Winners: The Films of 5/19

Post by Walleye413 »

Dang looks like Six's predictions are almost exactly spot on. Kudos my friend.

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Re: Walleye's Weekly Winners: The Films of 5/19

Post by Buscemi »

Walleye413 wrote:Dang looks like Six's predictions are almost exactly spot on. Kudos my friend.
He over-predicted Diary of a Wimpy Kid. I actually under-predicted it (I was only expecting $6 million for the weekend).
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Re: Walleye's Weekly Winners: The Films of 5/19

Post by Shrykespeare »

Weekend Projections:

Alien: Covenant, $40M
Guardians 2, $35M (putting it at $300M after 17 days)
Everything Everything, $11M
Snatched, $7.3M
Wimpy Kid, $7.2M
King Arthur, $6.5M
Fate of the Furious, $3M
Boss Baby, $2.6M
Beauty and the Beast, $2.3M (soooo close to $500M!)
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Re: Walleye's Weekly Winners: The Films of 5/19

Post by Buscemi »

Official weekend estimates:

Alien: Covenant $36 million
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 $35.1 million (Close!)
Everything, Everything $12 million
Snatched $7.6 million (61.1% drop)
Diary of a Wimpy Kid: The Long Haul $7.2 million
King Arthur: Legend of the Sword $6.9 million (55.4% drop)
The Fate of the Furious $3.2 million
The Boss Baby $2.8 million
Beauty and the Beast $2.4 million (should hit $500 million next week)
How to Be a Latin Lover $2.2 million
Lowriders $1.2 million (51.7% drop despite adding 70 theatres)

Norman made $0.6 million in a semi-wide expansion to 373 theatres while The Lovers makes $0.3 million in an expansion to 105 theatres. The Wall's dropped 64.2% in its second weekend (wouldn't be surprised if Lionsgate stopped reporting this one after this week).

PTA:
Alien: Covenant $9,572
Paris Can Wait $8,854
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 $8,066
Everything, Everything $4,284
Lowriders $3,183

The Lovers misses out on the last point with $2,861 (looks like this one's beginning to play out).
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Re: Walleye's Weekly Winners: The Films of 5/19

Post by Shrykespeare »

Actually, according to BOM, the final PTA point this week may go to The Wedding Plan, which is ahead of Lowriders by less than $100 per theater.
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