SPEARE'S TIPS - THE FILMS of 5/12

Mr. Columnist himself presents weekly analysis and tips.

Moderators: Buscemi, BarcaRulz, Geezer, W

User avatar
Shrykespeare
Site Admin
Posts: 14273
Joined: September 12th, 2009, 11:38 pm
Location: Glendale, AZ

SPEARE'S TIPS - THE FILMS of 5/12

Post by Shrykespeare »

Last week, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 ripped and roared its way to a $146.5M OW, kicking off the summer season in a blaze of awesome CGI glory and 70s music. (And now I can't get "Brandy" out of my head. Dammit.) Anyhoo, GOTG also took top honors in PTA, too, while April and March holdovers continue to hang around, mopping up points like spilled gravy until the May films really start cranking.

We all know how the summer season works - big-budget films debut pretty much every week, and most of them have blockbuster potential. However, the second week of May has habitually been a cooling off period after the leadoff hitter (which, for the last decade, has always been a Marvel film) debuts. I guess Summer Season Week 2 is typically weak because no one wants to settle for #2 in the aftermath of a surefire hit.

There was a time when Guy Ritchie was known mostly for gritty British heist dramas. He was good at it. Then he married Madonna, directed her in Swept Away, the worst movie ever made, divorced her, and immediately found a new career in the Sherlock Holmes franchise. (It DID happen in that order, right??) However, it's been six years since the second Holmes film (and a third is rumored), and all he's done in the interim is the entertaining-but-forgettable adaptation of The Man from U.N.C.L.E.. Now he's back with a historical action film, representin' with the legendary medieval story of King Arthur: Legend of the Sword (Warner Bros.).

Most of us know the basics of the story: the son of a deposed king rises to greatness when he pulls the legendary Excalibur from a stone, thus reclaiming his birthright, despite the fact that strange women lying in ponds distributing swords is no basis for a system of government. I mean, seriously! Supreme executive power derives from a mandate from the... oops, sorry, was channeling Mike Palin there for a sec. Charlie Hunnam plays the titular King Arthur, Jude Law plays the villainous Vortigern, and Djimon Hounsou plays Bedivere ("How do you know so much about swallows?").

A lot of people love films like this, and a lot of people love the old legend. A few might still remember Guy Ritchie. But it won't be enough to dethrone (heh) Guardians, not by a long shot. In fact, it may not even come in second, if Snatched takes off. (Side note: how ironic is it that Guy directed a film called Snatch and now he's opening against another film with nearly the same name?) I predict $18M, seven Top 5, two PTA, a Rating in the high 6's, and $70M overall. It's only $14 in Ultimate, but I daresay you want more bang for your buck in THIS power-packed season.


Then we have the aforementioned Snatch(ed) (Fox), which does not star Brat Pitt as an incomprehensible Irish gypsy, but vulgar comedienne Amy Schumer, who is trying her level best to take Melissa McCarthy's place as the queen of adult female comedy in movies. Trainwreck did pretty well two years ago, and now she's hoping to repeat those numbers ($110M). She plays Emily, who invites her mother (Goldie Hawn) on an exotic vacation after dumping her boyfriend. Hilarity ensues. Think Blended meets Romancing the Stone, and that's the vibe I get from this film.

R-rated comedies have a history of doing well in the summer, and Snatched could easily join those ranks. It's effective counter-programming, and there isn't another film like it until, I guess, Rough Night six weeks later. I'll be generous and predict a $21M OW, seven T5, three PTA and $90M overall. It's even cheaper than King Arthur at $13, so I would really think about grabbing this one up, especially in Box Office.

Also up this weekend:

The Wall (Roadside Attractions) - This thriller from veteran director Doug Liman stars Aaron Taylor-Johnson as Sgt. Allen Isaac, who, along with SSgt. Shane Matthews (John Cena) become involved in a deadly sniper version of cat and mouse, separated only by, you guessed it, a wall. I'm a fan of some of Liman's stuff, but at 541 theaters, this film is caught in that no-man's-land between T5 and PTA territory, much like the characters in this film, sans the wall. It's only $4, but you can do better.

Lowriders (BH Tilt) - This film is described as "a contemporary tale about a teen whose loyalties are tested when an annual lowrider event forces him to choose between his father and his criminal brother". Demian Bechir is the top biller, so there's that. I'm loathe to write this off given its intriguing trailer, but at only 290 theaters, this will not do anywhere near what How to be a Latin Lover did. Sorry. Moving on.

Paris Can Wait (Sony Classics) - this one would seem to be a great PTA pick. A four-theater opening, a French setting, and being helmed by a famous director.......'s wife. Yes, Eleanor Coppola (Francis's better half) leads this rom-com, with a cast that includes Diane Lane and Alec Baldwin, two of the prettiest over-50 actors still working today. At only $3, I'd love to recommend it... but I can't. It's RT score is a middling 54%, and if it doesn't bring you PTA points (which it might not), you'll be stuck with a horrible Rating (currently at 5.3). It's tough to pick a good indie film in the summer, but I don't think this is it.

The Wedding Plan (Roadside Attractions) - no, this is not a re-release of the 2001 rom-com starring J-Lo and Matthew McConaughey. This is an Israeli film about a woman (Noa Koler) who refuses to cancel her wedding arrangements after her fiance bows out, convinced that God will supply her with a husband by the time the band starts to play Hava Nagila (or however it works in Israel). This is actually not a bad gamble for only $2, seeing as it has a two-theater release platform, has gotten great reviews (81% RT) and has a decent Rating (7.1) that won't hurt you even if no PTA happens. For an eighth and final pick, you could do a lot worse.


Weekend Prediction:

GOTG 2, $63M
Snatched, $21M
King Arthur, $18M
Fate of the Furious, $5M
Boss Baby, $4M

PTA: GOTG 2, The Lovers, The Wedding Plan, Snatched, King Arthur


And that's all she wrote. Walleye will be back next week to talk about the next Alien movie, the next Wimpy Kid movie, and a romantic drama called Everything, Everything (the film so nice, they named it twice.)

Later!
Happy 60th birthday Jet Li! (4/26/23)

User avatar
Shrykespeare
Site Admin
Posts: 14273
Joined: September 12th, 2009, 11:38 pm
Location: Glendale, AZ

Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - THE FILMS of 5/12

Post by Shrykespeare »

Celebrity birthdays:

George Carlin would have turned 80 on 5/12
Odeya Rush turns 20 on 5/12
Samantha Morton turns 40 on 5/13
Happy 60th birthday Jet Li! (4/26/23)

User avatar
Walleye413
Marv
Posts: 1761
Joined: November 17th, 2009, 1:17 am

Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - THE FILMS of 5/12

Post by Walleye413 »

Oh but if I went round saying I was Emperor because some moistened bint had lobbed a scimitar at me they'd put me away!

User avatar
Shrykespeare
Site Admin
Posts: 14273
Joined: September 12th, 2009, 11:38 pm
Location: Glendale, AZ

Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - THE FILMS of 5/12

Post by Shrykespeare »

Walleye413 wrote:Oh but if I went round saying I was Emperor because some moistened bint had lobbed a scimitar at me they'd put me away!
Yes indeed!

Happy 60th birthday Jet Li! (4/26/23)

User avatar
Shrykespeare
Site Admin
Posts: 14273
Joined: September 12th, 2009, 11:38 pm
Location: Glendale, AZ

Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - THE FILMS of 5/12

Post by Shrykespeare »

Friday Estimates

Guardians 2, $16.4M
King Arthur, $5.3M
Snatched, $5M
Fate of the Furious, $1.4M
Boss Baby, $965K
Happy 60th birthday Jet Li! (4/26/23)

User avatar
Shrykespeare
Site Admin
Posts: 14273
Joined: September 12th, 2009, 11:38 pm
Location: Glendale, AZ

Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - THE FILMS of 5/12

Post by Shrykespeare »

Weekend Projections

Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2, $60.3M
Snatched, $16.3M
King Arthur: Legend of the Sword, $14.6M
The Fate of the Furious, $5M
The Boss Baby, $4.3M
Beauty and the Beast, $3.6M
How to be a Latin Lover, $3.1M
Lowriders, $2.5M
The Circle, $1.7M
Gifted, $1.3M


PTA:
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2, $13.8K
Lowriders, $8.4K
Snatched, $4.6K
King Arthur, $3.9K
How to be a Latin Lover, $2.7K

The Wall, $1.6K
Happy 60th birthday Jet Li! (4/26/23)

User avatar
undeadmonkey
Leon
Posts: 4413
Joined: October 22nd, 2009, 1:39 pm

Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - THE FILMS of 5/12

Post by undeadmonkey »

Good thing WB still has Harry Potter to fall back on, they've really been striking out on the franchise front

Buscemi
CONGRATS! You may now chose your own rank!
Posts: 16164
Joined: October 21st, 2009, 11:14 am
Location: Baltimore State Hospital for the Criminally Insane

Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - THE FILMS of 5/12

Post by Buscemi »

Sitting on it for a year didn't help (I still believe it would have done well in March instead of Warner Bros. hoping that people would actually sit through a Dax Shepard opus). At this point, I'm thinking King Arthur becomes a cable series with those five sequel ideas turning into three seasons of 13 episodes each. With HBO needing new ideas once Game of Thrones ends, a King Arthur series would compete well with Starz's genre offerings and even Amazon's The Man in the High Castle. There's a built-in audience (those word-of-mouth screenings might have taken away $5-10 million from this week's gross) but HBO may seem such a concept as not adult enough.

And Warner Bros. is doing fine. The DC Extended Universe is already established itself as the ultimate critic proof franchise (critics and vocal minorities on the Internet hate them but general audiences love them, they are the Lay's potato chips of movies)* and they'll have that AT&T money rolling in pretty soon. Maybe we'll have The Adventures of Lily coming next year. ;)

* - I wouldn't put stock in those $65 million estimates on Wonder Woman. The last three DCEU movies all opened to $100 million plus and tracking seems to be relating it more to past female-led bombs like Catwoman and Elektra than current superhero movies. The difference between this one and those are is that this one wasn't made as a cheap afterthought. It will perform above those numbers just for the sole fact that it's a film audiences have clamored for and because it's another film you won't see Marvel doing (they're shoe-horning The Wasp into an Ant-Man sequel few asked for rather than giving her her own movie as Kevin Feige and Marvel still aren't convinced a female-led superhero film is worth making).
Everything on this post is strictly the opinion and only the opinion of Buscemi.

Spotify: http://open.spotify.com/user/1244530511 ... 9GBj16VEmr

User avatar
Shrykespeare
Site Admin
Posts: 14273
Joined: September 12th, 2009, 11:38 pm
Location: Glendale, AZ

Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - THE FILMS of 5/12

Post by Shrykespeare »

Weekend Estimates

Top 10:
5 points - Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2, $63.0M
4 points - Snatched, $17.5M
3 points - King Arthur: Legend of the Sword, $14.7M
2 points - The Fate of the Furious, $5.3M
1 point - The Boss Baby, $4.6M
Beauty and the Beast, $3.9M
How to be a Latin Lover, $3.7M
Lowriders, $2.4M
The Circle, $1.7M
Baahubali 2: The Conclusion, $1.5M



PTA:
5 points - Paris Can Wait
4 points - Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2
3 points - Lowriders
2 points - The Lovers
1 point - Snatched

The Wedding Plan just missed. The Wall missed by a wide margin.
Happy 60th birthday Jet Li! (4/26/23)

User avatar
Walleye413
Marv
Posts: 1761
Joined: November 17th, 2009, 1:17 am

Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - THE FILMS of 5/12

Post by Walleye413 »

I really thought The Wall would do better. Lowriders sure was marketed well. It can be done.

Buscemi
CONGRATS! You may now chose your own rank!
Posts: 16164
Joined: October 21st, 2009, 11:14 am
Location: Baltimore State Hospital for the Criminally Insane

Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - THE FILMS of 5/12

Post by Buscemi »

The Wall looked extremely generic from the trailers. If not for Amazon financing and Doug Liman directing, it would have been a day-and-date title.
Everything on this post is strictly the opinion and only the opinion of Buscemi.

Spotify: http://open.spotify.com/user/1244530511 ... 9GBj16VEmr

User avatar
Chienfantome
Captain Jack Sparrow
Posts: 9967
Joined: May 29th, 2010, 4:22 am
Location: Paris, France
Contact:

Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - THE FILMS of 5/12

Post by Chienfantome »

Yet I've heard good things about it. I really thought it would do better too.
Paris can wait is a good surprise in the PTA battle.
Fluctuat nec mergitur

Buscemi
CONGRATS! You may now chose your own rank!
Posts: 16164
Joined: October 21st, 2009, 11:14 am
Location: Baltimore State Hospital for the Criminally Insane

Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - THE FILMS of 5/12

Post by Buscemi »

The Wall only has a 57 on Metacritic. The high side of average but still average, nonetheless.

Not too surprised about Paris Can Wait's results. It played well at Toronto (reviews were mixed but Toronto has always been about audience reaction) and it was directed by a Coppola (fun fact: this is Eleanor Coppola's first directorial effort since Hearts of Darkness as well as being her first narrative feature). In addition, it got two screens at one of the New York theatres (the Angelika Film Center) showing it.
Everything on this post is strictly the opinion and only the opinion of Buscemi.

Spotify: http://open.spotify.com/user/1244530511 ... 9GBj16VEmr

User avatar
shrykespeare2
Harry Tuttle
Posts: 30
Joined: April 30th, 2017, 12:23 pm

Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - THE FILMS of 5/12

Post by shrykespeare2 »

Weekend Actuals

Top 10:
5 points - Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2, $65.3M
4 points - Snatched, $19.5M
3 points - King Arthur: Legend of the Sword, $15.4M
2 points - The Fate of the Furious, $5.4M
1 point - Beauty and the Beast, $4.8M
The Boss Baby, $4.5M
How to be a Latin Lover, $3.9M
Lowriders, $2.4M
The Circle, $1.8M
Baahubali 2: The Conclusion, $1.6M

So... one more T5 points for Beauty and the Beast. That makes 27 total. In case you're wondering, Boss Baby has 23, and Fate of the Furious is up to 21.



PTA:
5 points - Paris Can Wait, $24,713
4 points - Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2, $15,013
3 points - Lowriders, $8,149
2 points - Snatched, $5,582
1 point - The Lovers, $5,446
Happy 50th birthday Jude Law! (12/29/22)

User avatar
numbersix
Darth Vader
Posts: 11545
Joined: October 21st, 2009, 2:34 pm

Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - THE FILMS of 5/12

Post by numbersix »

Actually 26 T5 points for Beauty.

And yeah, Boss Baby held so well. Exactly what I hoped for when I drafted it!

Post Reply