SPEARE'S TIPS - THE FILMS of 5/12
Posted: May 11th, 2017, 7:56 pm
Last week, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 ripped and roared its way to a $146.5M OW, kicking off the summer season in a blaze of awesome CGI glory and 70s music. (And now I can't get "Brandy" out of my head. Dammit.) Anyhoo, GOTG also took top honors in PTA, too, while April and March holdovers continue to hang around, mopping up points like spilled gravy until the May films really start cranking.
We all know how the summer season works - big-budget films debut pretty much every week, and most of them have blockbuster potential. However, the second week of May has habitually been a cooling off period after the leadoff hitter (which, for the last decade, has always been a Marvel film) debuts. I guess Summer Season Week 2 is typically weak because no one wants to settle for #2 in the aftermath of a surefire hit.
There was a time when Guy Ritchie was known mostly for gritty British heist dramas. He was good at it. Then he married Madonna, directed her in Swept Away, the worst movie ever made, divorced her, and immediately found a new career in the Sherlock Holmes franchise. (It DID happen in that order, right??) However, it's been six years since the second Holmes film (and a third is rumored), and all he's done in the interim is the entertaining-but-forgettable adaptation of The Man from U.N.C.L.E.. Now he's back with a historical action film, representin' with the legendary medieval story of King Arthur: Legend of the Sword (Warner Bros.).
Most of us know the basics of the story: the son of a deposed king rises to greatness when he pulls the legendary Excalibur from a stone, thus reclaiming his birthright, despite the fact that strange women lying in ponds distributing swords is no basis for a system of government. I mean, seriously! Supreme executive power derives from a mandate from the... oops, sorry, was channeling Mike Palin there for a sec. Charlie Hunnam plays the titular King Arthur, Jude Law plays the villainous Vortigern, and Djimon Hounsou plays Bedivere ("How do you know so much about swallows?").
A lot of people love films like this, and a lot of people love the old legend. A few might still remember Guy Ritchie. But it won't be enough to dethrone (heh) Guardians, not by a long shot. In fact, it may not even come in second, if Snatched takes off. (Side note: how ironic is it that Guy directed a film called Snatch and now he's opening against another film with nearly the same name?) I predict $18M, seven Top 5, two PTA, a Rating in the high 6's, and $70M overall. It's only $14 in Ultimate, but I daresay you want more bang for your buck in THIS power-packed season.
Then we have the aforementioned Snatch(ed) (Fox), which does not star Brat Pitt as an incomprehensible Irish gypsy, but vulgar comedienne Amy Schumer, who is trying her level best to take Melissa McCarthy's place as the queen of adult female comedy in movies. Trainwreck did pretty well two years ago, and now she's hoping to repeat those numbers ($110M). She plays Emily, who invites her mother (Goldie Hawn) on an exotic vacation after dumping her boyfriend. Hilarity ensues. Think Blended meets Romancing the Stone, and that's the vibe I get from this film.
R-rated comedies have a history of doing well in the summer, and Snatched could easily join those ranks. It's effective counter-programming, and there isn't another film like it until, I guess, Rough Night six weeks later. I'll be generous and predict a $21M OW, seven T5, three PTA and $90M overall. It's even cheaper than King Arthur at $13, so I would really think about grabbing this one up, especially in Box Office.
Also up this weekend:
The Wall (Roadside Attractions) - This thriller from veteran director Doug Liman stars Aaron Taylor-Johnson as Sgt. Allen Isaac, who, along with SSgt. Shane Matthews (John Cena) become involved in a deadly sniper version of cat and mouse, separated only by, you guessed it, a wall. I'm a fan of some of Liman's stuff, but at 541 theaters, this film is caught in that no-man's-land between T5 and PTA territory, much like the characters in this film, sans the wall. It's only $4, but you can do better.
Lowriders (BH Tilt) - This film is described as "a contemporary tale about a teen whose loyalties are tested when an annual lowrider event forces him to choose between his father and his criminal brother". Demian Bechir is the top biller, so there's that. I'm loathe to write this off given its intriguing trailer, but at only 290 theaters, this will not do anywhere near what How to be a Latin Lover did. Sorry. Moving on.
Paris Can Wait (Sony Classics) - this one would seem to be a great PTA pick. A four-theater opening, a French setting, and being helmed by a famous director.......'s wife. Yes, Eleanor Coppola (Francis's better half) leads this rom-com, with a cast that includes Diane Lane and Alec Baldwin, two of the prettiest over-50 actors still working today. At only $3, I'd love to recommend it... but I can't. It's RT score is a middling 54%, and if it doesn't bring you PTA points (which it might not), you'll be stuck with a horrible Rating (currently at 5.3). It's tough to pick a good indie film in the summer, but I don't think this is it.
The Wedding Plan (Roadside Attractions) - no, this is not a re-release of the 2001 rom-com starring J-Lo and Matthew McConaughey. This is an Israeli film about a woman (Noa Koler) who refuses to cancel her wedding arrangements after her fiance bows out, convinced that God will supply her with a husband by the time the band starts to play Hava Nagila (or however it works in Israel). This is actually not a bad gamble for only $2, seeing as it has a two-theater release platform, has gotten great reviews (81% RT) and has a decent Rating (7.1) that won't hurt you even if no PTA happens. For an eighth and final pick, you could do a lot worse.
Weekend Prediction:
GOTG 2, $63M
Snatched, $21M
King Arthur, $18M
Fate of the Furious, $5M
Boss Baby, $4M
PTA: GOTG 2, The Lovers, The Wedding Plan, Snatched, King Arthur
And that's all she wrote. Walleye will be back next week to talk about the next Alien movie, the next Wimpy Kid movie, and a romantic drama called Everything, Everything (the film so nice, they named it twice.)
Later!
We all know how the summer season works - big-budget films debut pretty much every week, and most of them have blockbuster potential. However, the second week of May has habitually been a cooling off period after the leadoff hitter (which, for the last decade, has always been a Marvel film) debuts. I guess Summer Season Week 2 is typically weak because no one wants to settle for #2 in the aftermath of a surefire hit.
There was a time when Guy Ritchie was known mostly for gritty British heist dramas. He was good at it. Then he married Madonna, directed her in Swept Away, the worst movie ever made, divorced her, and immediately found a new career in the Sherlock Holmes franchise. (It DID happen in that order, right??) However, it's been six years since the second Holmes film (and a third is rumored), and all he's done in the interim is the entertaining-but-forgettable adaptation of The Man from U.N.C.L.E.. Now he's back with a historical action film, representin' with the legendary medieval story of King Arthur: Legend of the Sword (Warner Bros.).
Most of us know the basics of the story: the son of a deposed king rises to greatness when he pulls the legendary Excalibur from a stone, thus reclaiming his birthright, despite the fact that strange women lying in ponds distributing swords is no basis for a system of government. I mean, seriously! Supreme executive power derives from a mandate from the... oops, sorry, was channeling Mike Palin there for a sec. Charlie Hunnam plays the titular King Arthur, Jude Law plays the villainous Vortigern, and Djimon Hounsou plays Bedivere ("How do you know so much about swallows?").
A lot of people love films like this, and a lot of people love the old legend. A few might still remember Guy Ritchie. But it won't be enough to dethrone (heh) Guardians, not by a long shot. In fact, it may not even come in second, if Snatched takes off. (Side note: how ironic is it that Guy directed a film called Snatch and now he's opening against another film with nearly the same name?) I predict $18M, seven Top 5, two PTA, a Rating in the high 6's, and $70M overall. It's only $14 in Ultimate, but I daresay you want more bang for your buck in THIS power-packed season.
Then we have the aforementioned Snatch(ed) (Fox), which does not star Brat Pitt as an incomprehensible Irish gypsy, but vulgar comedienne Amy Schumer, who is trying her level best to take Melissa McCarthy's place as the queen of adult female comedy in movies. Trainwreck did pretty well two years ago, and now she's hoping to repeat those numbers ($110M). She plays Emily, who invites her mother (Goldie Hawn) on an exotic vacation after dumping her boyfriend. Hilarity ensues. Think Blended meets Romancing the Stone, and that's the vibe I get from this film.
R-rated comedies have a history of doing well in the summer, and Snatched could easily join those ranks. It's effective counter-programming, and there isn't another film like it until, I guess, Rough Night six weeks later. I'll be generous and predict a $21M OW, seven T5, three PTA and $90M overall. It's even cheaper than King Arthur at $13, so I would really think about grabbing this one up, especially in Box Office.
Also up this weekend:
The Wall (Roadside Attractions) - This thriller from veteran director Doug Liman stars Aaron Taylor-Johnson as Sgt. Allen Isaac, who, along with SSgt. Shane Matthews (John Cena) become involved in a deadly sniper version of cat and mouse, separated only by, you guessed it, a wall. I'm a fan of some of Liman's stuff, but at 541 theaters, this film is caught in that no-man's-land between T5 and PTA territory, much like the characters in this film, sans the wall. It's only $4, but you can do better.
Lowriders (BH Tilt) - This film is described as "a contemporary tale about a teen whose loyalties are tested when an annual lowrider event forces him to choose between his father and his criminal brother". Demian Bechir is the top biller, so there's that. I'm loathe to write this off given its intriguing trailer, but at only 290 theaters, this will not do anywhere near what How to be a Latin Lover did. Sorry. Moving on.
Paris Can Wait (Sony Classics) - this one would seem to be a great PTA pick. A four-theater opening, a French setting, and being helmed by a famous director.......'s wife. Yes, Eleanor Coppola (Francis's better half) leads this rom-com, with a cast that includes Diane Lane and Alec Baldwin, two of the prettiest over-50 actors still working today. At only $3, I'd love to recommend it... but I can't. It's RT score is a middling 54%, and if it doesn't bring you PTA points (which it might not), you'll be stuck with a horrible Rating (currently at 5.3). It's tough to pick a good indie film in the summer, but I don't think this is it.
The Wedding Plan (Roadside Attractions) - no, this is not a re-release of the 2001 rom-com starring J-Lo and Matthew McConaughey. This is an Israeli film about a woman (Noa Koler) who refuses to cancel her wedding arrangements after her fiance bows out, convinced that God will supply her with a husband by the time the band starts to play Hava Nagila (or however it works in Israel). This is actually not a bad gamble for only $2, seeing as it has a two-theater release platform, has gotten great reviews (81% RT) and has a decent Rating (7.1) that won't hurt you even if no PTA happens. For an eighth and final pick, you could do a lot worse.
Weekend Prediction:
GOTG 2, $63M
Snatched, $21M
King Arthur, $18M
Fate of the Furious, $5M
Boss Baby, $4M
PTA: GOTG 2, The Lovers, The Wedding Plan, Snatched, King Arthur
And that's all she wrote. Walleye will be back next week to talk about the next Alien movie, the next Wimpy Kid movie, and a romantic drama called Everything, Everything (the film so nice, they named it twice.)
Later!