SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE - FILMS OF 05/05

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numbersix
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SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE - FILMS OF 05/05

Post by numbersix »

It’s summer time. So tear off your clothes, put sunscreen on your bits, grab that withered ice lolly you left in the freezer 9 months ago, and hit the warmth and comfort of the cinema.




First up is the obvious winner of the week, The Lovers, the next release from Oscar-winning indie distributors A24. It tells the story of a couple who are both having affairs with each other, only to end up having affairs on their lovers… with each other. Sounds confusing? It certainly isn’t, as it’s aimed at that wonderfully neglected older audience, who have virtually nothing mainstream to watch this whole season. Reviews have been solid with the focus on Debra Winger’s stand-out performance. With the film opening in 2-4 screens this weekend, it’s without doubt the best pick of the week, costing only $3 for what should ultimately nab you 4-6 PTA points, and an IMDB score in the 6s. There’s some better options for this price over the summer, but this feels like a safe bet.




Less safe is anything coming from the Weinstein Company, including 3 Generations. It’s a transgender drama starring the likes of Elle Fanning, Naomi Watts, and Susan Sarandon. While this kind of film should potentially pull in an arthouse crowd, reviews haven’t been great, and the film currently has a 45% Rotten RT score. With Harvey and co struggling to find a hit (last year’s Lion was just about a success), it’s unlikely they have the resources to push this film. With that said, it’s out in around 6 theatres this weekend, and weak competition should see 2 or 3 PTA points this weekend. Not bad for $3, but I’d bet in A24 any time (unless it’s a Ben Wheatley action flick).




Finally, here comes a film as bland as its title, The Dinner (The Orchard). Directed by Oren Moverman, this drama is centred around a dinner party of disparate guests as secrets emerge. Again, the strong cast (Richard Gere, Rebecca Hall, Steve Coogan, Laura Linney) are negated by the poor reviews that came out of this year’s Berlin Film Festival. Hell, I had a free ticket for this one and gave it away from the press response! And what’s worse is that The Orchard aim to open this in a few dozen theatres. Expect very little in return for your $3 in Ultimate and $1 in BO, so save your money while this film eats dirt.

Well, that’s it for this week. Next week will see…. Oh, wait… there’s one more obscure title that needs to be assessed.




Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 (Buena Vista) is a sequel to the 2014 surprise breakout film about a mismatched pair of people who learn the value of each other. It sounds a lot like The Dinner, actually. Only it’s getting released in a few more theatres, namely 4300. That seems a lot for such a tiny film, but who am I to argue with the distros of the USA? You might pick up a few points for this film, maybe around 20 T5 points, 10 PTA points, and a cume of around $400m. I suppose if you’re interested in winning this game you’d probably want to snap it up in pretty much any league, but who on earth (and in the galaxy) would want to do such a thing?


My predictions for the weekend

1. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 - $180m
2. The Fate of the Furious - $9m
3. How to Be a Latin Lover- $7m
4. The Boss Baby - $5m
5. The Circle - $4m

PTA: Guardians, The Lovers, 3 Generations, Latin Lover, The Fate of the Furious

Next week, returns with the real summer blockbusters: Paris Can Wait, The Wall, and The Wedding Plan. And some other oddities named King Arthur and Snatched (is this about Donald Trump’s ambitions for every female nether-regions?).

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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE - FILMS OF 05/05

Post by undeadmonkey »

It's hard predicting these movies that go so high. Most weekends your debating about $5M difference openings, but when movies go so high, you could easily see up to a $50M discrepancy. it could make anywhere from $160M to $210M.

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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE - FILMS OF 05/05

Post by Buscemi »

The Dinner is opening in almost 200 theatres (source: the resurrected Early Report on Film Jerk). So expect a low PTA.
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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE - FILMS OF 05/05

Post by Walleye413 »

Great article Six. And I think you're pretty spot on for Guardians. Impossible to guess for sure, but just south of 200 million seems about right.

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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE - FILMS OF 05/05

Post by Shrykespeare »

Theater counts:

Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 - 4,347
3 Generations - 6
The Lovers - 4
The Dinner - n/a


Next week:

King Arthur - 3,600
Snatched - 3,300
Lowriders - 275




Celebrity birthdays:

Tim McGraw turned 50 on 5/1
Jenna Von Oy turned 40 on 5/2 (I mention this because I loved her character on Blossom, "Six")
Richard Jenkins turned 70 on 5/4
Ana Gasteyer turned 50 on 5/4
Happy 60th birthday Jet Li! (4/26/23)

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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE - FILMS OF 05/05

Post by Buscemi »

According to FilmJerk, The Dinner is getting exactly 191 theatres. I'm not sure if that number has changed over the past few days.

And I'm surprised Lowriders is getting dumped. That looked like a film that could have done okay wide. Or maybe I'm the only one who wanted to see Demian Bichir with a shaved head.
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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE - FILMS OF 05/05

Post by Buscemi »

Weekend estimates are all over the place on Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2. It seems like everyone can agree on Friday (around $55 million, give or take a few) but weekend estimates are going between $135 million and $150 million. The Cinemascore is an A so it looks like it should be on the high end of estimates.

In the end, it's no Avengers: Age of Ultron but a strong result all around (though I'm sure some will feel that number is low) and Vol. 3 should be getting a date soon.
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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE - FILMS OF 05/05

Post by Shrykespeare »

Friday Estimates

GOTG 2, $56.2M
FOTF, $2.2M
Boss Baby, $1.3M
Latin Lover, $1.3M
BATB, $1.2M
Circle, $1.1M


Weekend Projections:

GOTG 2, $140M
FOTF, $8.2M
Boss Baby, $5.9M
Latin Lover, $4.5M
Circle, $3.8M
BATB, $3.5M
Gifted, $2.1M
Going in Style, $2M
Smurfs, $1.9M
Lost City, $1.1M
Happy 60th birthday Jet Li! (4/26/23)

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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE - FILMS OF 05/05

Post by Shrykespeare »

Weekend Estimates

Top 10:
5 points - Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2, $145.0M
4 points - The Fate of the Furious, $8.5M
3 points - The Boss Baby, $6.2M
2 points - How to Be a Latin Lover, $5.2M
1 point - Beauty and the Beast, $4.9M
The Circle, $4.0M
Baahubali 2: The Conclusion, $3.2M
Gifted, $2.1M
Going in Style, $1.9M
Smurfs: The Lost Village, $1.8M


PTA:
5 points - Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2
4 points - The Lovers
3 points - How to Be a Latin Lover
2 points - 3 Generations
1 point - The Fate of the Furious

The Dinner came in at #9 in PTA.
Happy 60th birthday Jet Li! (4/26/23)

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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE - FILMS OF 05/05

Post by Shrykespeare »

Weekend Actuals

Top 10:
5 points - Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2, $146.5M
4 points - The Fate of the Furious, $8.6M
3 points - The Boss Baby, $6.0M
2 points - How to be a Latin Lover, $5.1M
1 point - Beauty and the Beast, $5.1M
The Circle, $4.0M
Baahubali 2: The Conclusion, $3.4M
Gifted, $2.0M
Smurfs: The Lost Village, $1.8M
Going in Style, $1.8M


PTA:
5 points - Guardians of the Galalxy Vol. 2, $33,704
4 points - The Lovers, $16,572
3 points - How to be a Latin Lover, $4,277
2 points - 3 Generations, $3,022
1 point - The Fate of the Furious, $2,439
Happy 60th birthday Jet Li! (4/26/23)

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