Walleye's Weekly Winners: The Films of 4/7

Mr. Columnist himself presents weekly analysis and tips.

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Walleye413
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Walleye's Weekly Winners: The Films of 4/7

Post by Walleye413 »

When I saw the first Boss Baby trailer months ago I thought it looked terrible! Shows you what I know as the animation wonder opened to 50 million this past weekend – and knocked Beauty off her high horse in the process. The Power Rangers took quite a tumble – giving concern to their franchise hopes, and Scarlett Johansson’s Ghost wasn’t quite as promising as some of us hoped.

But enough about last week – this week we’ve 247 movies coming out as studios try to cram in as many flicks as possible before the real Summer blockbusters begin to Death Star everything in their path.

The “biggest” movie of the weekend will be the Smurfs: The Lost Village. Which answers one of the biggest questions of my childhood – how can there only be one girl Smurf? Seriously – even as a kid I knew there was something odd about that arrangement. This take on the Smurfs breaks away from the previous Cinema installments – so it’s all animated (No room for you Neil Patrick Harris!) I find the Smurfs to be one of the most annoying kids shows out there, so I’m pretty biased on this one – but I think with the surprising success of The Boss Baby, the Smurfs are going to underperform a bit. Too much competition for family dollars out there right now. The Smurfs will open around 23 million on their way to 65 million or so. They should get second this week, and maybe hang on for a few more Top 5 points so 6-7 total, but almost no PTA. Unless you think there’s a Smurfy surprise in store – I’d stay away from the blue wonders from down under.

On the complete opposite end of the spectrum you’ve got our next wide release: Going in Style. If you’re thinking you’ve seen this movie before – you have. It’s the latest “Get the biggest 70 and older actors and throw them in a movie together comedy” to come out of Hollywood. Which, actually I don’t mind. Most of this cast has more talent in their little pinky then a lot of the hot new things we see today. The plot of this one is Michael Caine, Morgan Freeman, and Adam Arkin are going to rob “The Man” after getting screwed in the last economic recession. I thought Zach Braff’s “Scrubs” was one of the funniest shows in the history of television and he’s the director here so I had high hopes for this one. But the previews haven’t impressed me that much. Still, I think the floor and the ceiling for these movies are pretty well set. It should open in the high teens – maybe 18 or 19 million, and settle in just south of 50 million total. It could grab a few Top 5 points, and have a decent IMDB rating. For the same money you could get Unforgettable or The Circle so let that be your guide on value.

Moving on we get The Case for Christ – the latest Christian movie to try and gain traction in the marketplace. This is based on one of the most well known and well loved Christian apologetics books written in the past 50 years, nearly every Evangelical Christian I know has read this book at some point. However, unlike The Shack, I don’t see any narrative reason for making this book into a movie, nor will most others who have read it. It may get a few eyeballs this weekend, but on only 1100 screens it’s not enough for you to put it on your slates. It might get 2-3 million for the weekend, probably less than 10 million total even with Easter next weekend. Most folks would rather go see the Shack again.

And bring on the PTA bait! We’ve got 4, count ‘em 4, movies vying for the PTA title. Some really interesting movies all around as well, it’s a shame they’re going to Hunger Games each other both for game purposes and at the Box Office.

The big dog is Gifted – and this movie has so much going for it. Great cast, true star power really. It’s a moving story about a single Dad trying to do right by his now deceased sister and her genius daughter. You’ve got a manipulative villain in the Grandma who also wants what is best for the girl – at least from her point of view. This should easily clean up for the week. Except it’s opening in 50 theatres. 4 theatres it’s a winner. 10 even, same thing. 50? Ugh. Not quite no man’s land but frustratingly hard to predict. I’ll save all my predictions for the end to build a little suspense, but for all the positives Captain America brings to this movie – can he overcome this fatal flaw?

Next on deck would be Their Finest – a clever Dramedy set in World War II in England. It’s about a film crew that attempts to boost morale for the troops and the nation during one of the darkest times of the war. Leave it to the Brits to get the tone of a Comedy/War movie just right. By most accounts this seems like a great flick, and it’s starring one of my favorite actresses of the moment: Gemma Arterton. I’ll be seeing it just for her, but throw in Sam Claflin, Bill Nighy, they should all be brilliant. The IMDB rating is 7.2 so good if not great. Again, the question is – amongst so much other competition, will this be the movie to rise above the rest?

It’ll have to beat out Colossal – perhaps the most creative idea for a movie I’ve seen this year. Near as I can tell, Anne Hathaway is having a bad day – and that bad day has become a monster that is destroying most of Japan. Yep. I love inventive movies, and for the sake of people getting the money to make more of them in the future I hope Colossal does well. Like Gifted it has a little star power with Anne, but it’s only on a few screens so it’s better off in that sense. The IMDB rating is worse than Their Finest, however and we don’t know how many theatres it’s coming out in. So many variables!

Finally we have Your Name – a Japanese Anime not from the hands of famed Miyazaki. Its plot seems a little secretive, and I’m not sure it makes much of a difference. You don’t see Japanese Anime for the plot as much as the magic and wonder of the story-telling. Your Name has been a huge hit in Japan, and worldwide. If we knew the theatre count this might be an easy decision, but we don’t know on this one either. So, if you love the Genre, see this movie and put it on your slates. The IMDB rating is 8.6(!) that alone should help you out if you’re not sure what to pick.

Whew – so there it is. In Box Office nothing looks like a huge winner, and in Ultimate it’s going to be a bloodbath. Pick the right one and you come out smelling like roses.

Come back next week when things get a lot easier. It’s the return of the Fast and Furious gang. Remember when they just raced cars and not torpedoes? Such simple times, those were.

Top 5
The Boss Baby – 27 million
Smurfs – 22 million
Beauty and the Beast – 21 million
Going in Style – 18.5 million
Ghost in the Shell – 9 million


PTA (Drumroll please)
Gifted (That’s right, even in all those theatres this is gonna score)
Your Name (I’m guessing this gets 50+ screens as well)
Colossal (Anne beats Gemma for most Americans)
Their Finest (They don’t know what they’re missing)
Smurfs (Give the blue guys some love.)

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Re: Walleye's Weekly Winners: The Films of 4/7

Post by Wrestler »

Sadly I think even the 22m opening is probably a bit high for smurfs I don't know anyone that cares about it at all. My guess is it comes in under going in style and Beauty with around 14-15m. Really do hope colossal does well so I can see it in theaters.

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Re: Walleye's Weekly Winners: The Films of 4/7

Post by Shrykespeare »

OMG WRESTLER!!! How the hell have you been! Long time no see!

Tough to pick a PTA winner, so I'm going to throw a dart at the board and hope it sticks.

Celebrity birthdays:

Sarah Gadon turned 30 on 4/4
Billy Dee Williams turns 80 on 4/6
John Ratzenberger turns 70 on 4/6
Happy 60th birthday Jet Li! (4/26/23)

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Re: Walleye's Weekly Winners: The Films of 4/7

Post by W »

Your Name is the obvious pick here. If you could guarantee me an 8.4-8.6 IMDb for $4, I'd say, "I'll take 3 please," pretty much every day of the week. I thought Going in Style would break out like Last Vegas, but now I don't. $18.5M is a bit higher than Last Vegas and following the same multiplier it'd make $70-75m for a great BO pick.

And a small correction on Gifted. It's his niece, not daughter. The plot is he's raising her how his sister would have wanted and be a kid, but she's a child prodigy and they want her to do child prodigy stuff.
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Re: Walleye's Weekly Winners: The Films of 4/7

Post by numbersix »

Great article Walleye. Like Wrestler, I think you're high on Smurfs (sounds like some sort of new synthetic drug - "oh man, I got so Smurfed up last night"). With Beauty and the Beast and Boss Baby performing well, and with the last Smurfs film opening to $17m, I can't see this doing much more. Also, Going in Style doesn't seem to have the clout of previous "old man" films, so I see this making less.

PTA is a bit of a clusterfuck. Your Name is opening in quite a few dozen theatres (if not 100+), as is Gifted. Colossal is in 4, same with Their Finest. I'm going with Colossal as Neon will surely want to aim for a successful start.


1. Beauty and the Beast – 25 million
2. The Boss Baby – 24 million
3. Smurfs 3 – 16 million
4. Going in Style – 11 million
5. Ghost in the Shell – 9 million

PTA: Colossal, Gifted, Their Finest, Your Name, Boss Baby

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Re: Walleye's Weekly Winners: The Films of 4/7

Post by Chienfantome »

Wrestler wrote:Anne Hathaway is having a bad day – and that bad day has become a monster that is destroying most of Japan.
Actually, it's Korea, not Japan ;)
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Re: Walleye's Weekly Winners: The Films of 4/7

Post by undeadmonkey »

Actually Walleye said that

Yea, it's a really hard week to sort out. You'd think the market is saturated, but everything keeps surprising. Though I've seen nothing for Smurfs, not even a trailer, so i guess we'll see.

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Re: Walleye's Weekly Winners: The Films of 4/7

Post by Shrykespeare »

Official Theater Counts:

Smurfs: The Lost Village - 3,610
Going in Style - 3,061
The Case for Christ - 1,175
Your Name. - 303
Gifted - 56
Their Finest - 4
Colossal - 4



Next week:

The Fate of the Furious - 4,200+
Spark: A Space Tail - 350
The Lost City of Z - 4
Happy 60th birthday Jet Li! (4/26/23)

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Re: Walleye's Weekly Winners: The Films of 4/7

Post by Walleye413 »

Wow I really am curious how the PTA battle will shape up. Kind of a good test case with films all over the map.

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Re: Walleye's Weekly Winners: The Films of 4/7

Post by Shrykespeare »

Friday Estimates

Boss Baby, $6.9M
Beauty and the Beast, $6.8M
Going in Style, $4.2M
Smurfs: The Lost Village, $4.2M
Ghost in the Shell, $2.1M
Power Rangers, $1.7M
The Case for Christ, $1.5M
Kong: Skull Island, $1.5M
Get Out, $1.2M
Logan, $1.1M



Weekend Projections:

The Boss Baby, $26.6M
Beauty and the Beast, $24.5
Smurfs: The Lost Village, $13.9M
Going in Style, $13M
Ghost in the Shell, $7M
Power Rangers, $6.1M
Kong: Skull Island, $5.4M
The Case for Christ, $4.4M
Logan, $4M
Get Out, $3.9M


PTA:
Gifted, $8K
Your Name, $7K
Boss Baby, 7K
Beauty and the Beast, $6K

Colossal, n/a
Their Finest, n/a
Happy 60th birthday Jet Li! (4/26/23)

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Re: Walleye's Weekly Winners: The Films of 4/7

Post by W »

Deadline reports Colossal at $30K PTA and Their Finest at $16K. So, #1 and #2 by a mile.
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Re: Walleye's Weekly Winners: The Films of 4/7

Post by Shrykespeare »

Weekend Estimates:

Top 10:
5 points - The Boss Baby, $26.3M
4 points - Beauty and the Beast, $25.0M
3 points - Smurfs: The Lost Village, $14.0M
2 points - Going in Style, $12.5M
1 point - Ghost in the Shell, $7.3M
Power Rangers, $6.2M
Kong: Skull Island, $5.8M
Logan, $4.0M
Get Out, $4.0M
The Case for Christ, $3.9M



PTA:
5 points - Colossal, $31K
4 points - Their Finest, $19K
3 points - Gifted, $8.5K
2 points - The Boss Baby, $6.9K
1 point - Beauty and the Beast, 6.3K

Your Name will finish out of contention, as will the three wide-release debuts.
Happy 60th birthday Jet Li! (4/26/23)

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Re: Walleye's Weekly Winners: The Films of 4/7

Post by transformers2 »

Colossal's numbers are on BOM now. Its PTA was $31,452.
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Re: Walleye's Weekly Winners: The Films of 4/7

Post by Walleye413 »

Note to self: Always go with the movies on 4 screens

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Re: Walleye's Weekly Winners: The Films of 4/7

Post by Buscemi »

I don't see Colossal holding its momentum in its future expansion though, despite being a rare hit for Drafthouse/IMG/Neon/insert future name here. These kinds of films always due their best early on and Hathaway doesn't have that appeal to the target audience (men that love kaiju and the Internet, though I'm sure that word is different in Korean). It reminds me of Spring Breakers four years back: a big, splashy release from a young label (A24, how far they've come along) that did insane numbers in limited release but once it went wide, word of mouth killed it (I remember one theatre here booking it on two screens on its first week of wide release, it was down to one show a night two weeks later).

Meanwhile, Their Finest should hold in expansion and be a nice benefit for the STX/EuropaCorp deal (of which this was the first film in their three-year alliance). Reviews were quite positive and after an okay Friday, word of mouth grew on Saturday. I could see it hitting 500 theatres by the end of the month.
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