Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 3/24

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Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 3/24

Post by transformers2 »

The Disney machine is alive and well. The megastudio's live-action reboot of Beauty and the Beast became the highest pre-summer opening of all-time with $174.7 mil in ticket sales in its first 3 days of release. The combination of Beauty's historic opening and strong holds from the rest of the top 5 (Kong: Skull Island, Logan, Get Out, The Shack) led to a ridiculous $253.6 mil haul for the top 12 films at the box office and yet another impressive 1st-quarter weekend for Hollywood's fatcats.

Wide Releases:
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In these trying times, only three words can potentially heal America's deep wounds: IT”S MORPHIN TIME!!!!!!!! That's right kids the motherfuckin' Power Rangers (Lionsgate) are back on the big-screen after a 20-year hiatus. In Dean Israelite's (Project Almanac) reboot of the beloved toy/over-the-top cheesy television series, 5 teenagers (headlined by Me and Earl and the Dying Girl's R.J. Cyler, Naomi Scott and Becky G as the first openly gay protagonist in a superhero movie) from the small town of Angel Grove are chosen by the mighty Zordon (Bryan Cranston) to become the latest generation of the honorable warriors known as the Power Rangers. Once the Rangers inherit their mystical powers and go through their obligatory superhero training sessions, they have to promptly band together to stop the dastardly world-domination plans of former Power Ranger and powerful witch Rita Repulsa (Elizabeth Banks in full Effie Trinket-mode). To say there's no shortage of comps for Power Rangers would be an understatement. Turning toy-lines/cartoons/kids shows into huge blockbusters has been over Hollywood's favorite trends over the past 15 years and given the solid returns a lot of them have had (Transformers, G.I. Joe, Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles), it's easy to understand why. A lot of these franchises have huge, built-in audiences that show up and support the films, regardless of the quality of the finished product. While the track record for these adaptations has been strong on the whole, the relative disappointment of Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out of the Shadows last summer makes me a little bit concerned about how Power Rangers will fare at the box office, but I'm still pretty confident that the combination of nostalgia for people in their 20/30's and enthusiasm among younger audiences will be enough for this film to succeed. I'm expecting an OW of $38 mil and depending on WOM, a final gross as high as $130 mil (RT is currently at 50% with 14 reviews, but we all know that these type of films are review-proof) as well as 9 top 5 points, 7 PTA points and an IMDB score of 6.8. At $16 BO and $14 ULT in March leagues, I believe Power Rangers is a high-upside risk in both formats.


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Arrival broke the traditional sci-fi mold by portraying aliens as misunderstood, compassionate creatures. Four months after the release of Denis Vilenevue's unconventional genre flick, Life (Sony/Columbia) is here to remind to you that extraterrestrial beings can be fucking horrifying. In this sci-fi horror/thriller from director Daniel Espinosa (Safe House, Child 44) and writers Rhett Reese and Paul Wernick (Deadpool, Zombieland), a group of astronauts (Jake Gyllenhaal, Ryan Reynolds, Rebecca Ferguson, Ariyon Bakare, Hiroyuki Sanada) aboard the International Space Station are overjoyed to have finally discovered proof of life on mars after one of their probes discovers a living organism on the planet's surface. That feeling of celebration quickly turns to horror when they discover the sample they collected is an intelligent, rapidly-growing creature that was responsible for wiping out every living thing on Mars. Trapped aboard the spacecraft, the group has used to their limited resources to kill the organism before it reaches Earth. When I first saw the teaser for Life last fall, I figured it would be a huge hit. Now, I'm not so sure. Sci-fi movies-particularly ones about aliens-tend to find an audience, Sony has ramped up the marketing over the past couple of weeks and the early reviews following its premiere at SXSW on Saturday night have been pretty strong (88% on RT), but the R-rating and potential over-saturation of space-themed movies of late leads me to believe that it's going to put up middling numbers. I'm expecting an opening of about $17 mil, 4 Top 5 points, 2 PTA points, an IMDB score of 7.3 and a final gross somewhere in the $40-50 mil range. While I wouldn't be shocked if it ended up overachieving, I still wouldn't advise putting Life on your slates.


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Power Rangers isn't the only beloved property making its way to the big screen this weekend. Late 70's-early 80's drama/loud motorcycle chase pornoCHips (Warner Brothers) is following in the footsteps of 21 Jump Street by getting the R-rated comedy treatment on the big screen. Dax Shepard-who also wrote and directed-and Michael Pena are stepping into the roles (and brown uniforms) of California highway patrol officers Jon Baker and Frank Poncharello made famous by Larry Wilcox and Erik Estrada. In the big-screen adaptation, Baker and Poncharello unintentionally get mixed up in a vicious crime ring headed up by a ruthless ex-cop-turned-car thief (Vincent D'Onofrio). Despite boasting a talented ensemble cast and pretty decent set of trailers, I just don't see a scenario where CHips succeeds. Shepard and Pena aren't proven draws, the TV show isn't exactly burning up the syndication circuit in 2017 and most importantly, the advertising hasn't been nearly as prevalent as the weekend's other wide releases. Its decent theater count (2,400+) and status as an R-rated comedy could possibly get it to $10 mil and a single top 5 point this weekend, but I expect it to quickly fall off a cliff and finish with $22 mil and an IMDB rating around 6.3. Barring a last-minute emergency swamp-out in a January league, I wouldn't recommend hitching your wagon to Baker and Ponch's loud-ass motorcycles.


Limited Release:
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What a difference a few weeks make. About a month ago, Wilson (Fox Searchlight) looked like a solid bet to secure some PTA points due to a complete lack of other limited releases on the schedule. Now that Fox Searchlight has decided to dump into 250 or so theaters this weekend, the comedy about a miserable social misfit (Woody Harrelson) that re-unites with his estranged wife (Laura Dern) after discovering that he has a daughter looks like a complete non-starter. The small numbers of reviews that came out of its screenings at Sundance and SXSW have been below average (38% on RT) and given the plethora of new wide release currently in the marketplace, it's odds of finding an audience are very low. I'm expecting an opening weekend of $500K, a final gross of $1.5 mil and zero PTA points. Even with its very cheap price tag ($4 in ULT and $2 in BO), there's no reason to put this on your slate.


Weekend Projections
1.Beauty and the Beast $101 mil
2.Power Rangers $38 mil
3.Life $17 mil
4.Kong: Skull Island $15 mil
5.Logan $10 mil
-CHips $9 mil

PTA: Power Rangers, Beauty and the Beast, T2: Trainspotting, Life, Kong: Skull Island

Tune in next week as UDM previews Dreamworks Animation's latest The Boss Baby, The Zookeeper's Wife (aka Jessica Chastain's latest great performance in an underwhelming movie) and the live-action Ghost in the Shell remake led by distinguished Japanese actress Scarlett Johansson.
BRING BRENDAN FRASER BACK TO THE BIG SCREEN DAMN IT
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 3/24

Post by Shrykespeare »

Great column, Tranny. I can't find fault with any of your numbers. I don't think I have Wilson on any of my slates, but if I do, I'm yanking them.


Celebrity birthdays:

Spike Lee turns 60 on 3/20
Amanda ("I'll execute every motherfuckin' last one o' you!") Plummer turns 60 on 3/20
Jessica Chastain turns 40 on 3/24
Elton John turns 70 on 3/25
Edgar Ramirez turns 40 on 3/25
Happy 60th birthday Jet Li! (4/26/23)

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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 3/24

Post by undeadmonkey »

We haven't had a decent flop all year, With everything over-performing the last month, i think we are going to see a few this weekend. Life should have stayed in the summer and I just don't see the appeal of Power Rangers, it looks nothing like the tv show. That's kinda the point of the nostalgia, to remind you of what was.

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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 3/24

Post by BanksIsDaFuture »

Am I the only one who thought the movie Wilson was a biopic of Woodrow Wilson, starring Woody Harrelson?


Don't think BaTB will hold that well personally, it doesn't have the reviews or WOM to support such a small drop.

1. Beauty & the Beast - $82M
2. Power Rangers - $30M
3. Life - $16M
4. Kong: Skull Island - $14M
5. CHiPS/Logan - $9M
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 3/24

Post by W »

Yeah, only 2 in the top 20 OWs ever dropped less than 50%. The Force Awakens, which pre-sold multiple weekends, and Jurassic World (49%). Low 40's would be almost Force Awakens numbers.
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 3/24

Post by numbersix »

Good assessment Tranny. Think Power Rangers will open a little lower - there's just a LOT going on this month. Also, that's a hell of a hold you're expecting for BATB.


1. Beauty and the Beast $85 mil
2. Power Rangers $32 mil
3. Life $17 mil
4. Kong: Skull Island $14 mil
5. CHips $10 mil

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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 3/24

Post by transformers2 »

I know that Beauty and the Beast prediction is generous, but given the hype around it and its status as a family film, I think it's going to have an absurd hold. However, given my previous history of making predictions in these columns, there's about a 90% chance that I end up being wrong :lol:
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 3/24

Post by Walleye413 »

Good analysis. I'm with you in think Beauty will hold better than normal - everyone I've talked to who has seen it loved it. But a movie like this is so unprecedented it's hard to predict for sure what's going to happen. I think Power Rangers does well too. And I have Wilson on all my slates. Missed the memo on it going semi-wide. Crap.

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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 3/24

Post by Shrykespeare »

Theater counts:

Power Rangers - 3,693
Life - 3,146
CHiPs - 2,464
WIlson - 310

Those that didn't drop Wilson from their Ultimate slates are gonna be SORRY....


Next week:

The Boss Baby - 3,700
Ghost in the Shell - 3,200
The Zookeeper's Wife - 450
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 3/24

Post by Buscemi »

Looks like Beauty and the Beast should hold on as it's looking at a $21 million Friday.

Meanwhile, Power Rangers is looking to surprise with a $14 million Friday and a $40 million weekend. The Cinemascore was a strong A. I bet 90's nostalgia is helping this one (even though playing it straight was more than likely a big mistake as evidenced by the weak critical reviews).

Life is unsurprisingly looking like a bomb with a $5 million Friday and a $14 million weekend. However, it could drop to $12 million based on the dreadful C+ Cinemascore. Maybe the studios will get the hint that Ryan Reynolds can't carry a film not named Deadpool (or that you shouldn't release a ripoff of Alien so close to a new installment of Alien).

And the TV show adaptation no one really asked for in CHiPs is DOA with a $2.5 million Friday and a $7 million weekend. Cinemascore was a middling B- so it could dip slightly lower as well. I wouldn't be surprised if Warner Bros. took Dax Shepard off of S.C.O.O.B. as the numbers become official (in addition to the negative reviews that criticize the film's excessive homophobia). But of course, the impending WGA strike might lead to Shepard staying on even though the project deserves better.
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 3/24

Post by Shrykespeare »

Friday Estimates

Beauty and the Beast, $23.6M
Power Rangers, $15.0M
Life, $4.4M
Kong: Skull Island, $3.7M
Logan, $2.7M
CHiPs, $2.6M
Get Out, $2.5M
The Shack, $1.0M



Weekend Projections:

Beauty and the Beast, $86M ($314.6M 10-day)
Power Rangers, $38M
Kong: Skull Island, $14M
Life, $13.2M
Logan, $10.1M
Get Out, $9M
CHiPs, $7M
The Shack, $4M
The LEGO Batman Movie, $1.9M
The Belko Experiment, $1.8M


PTA:
Beauty and the Beast, $20K
Power Rangers, $10K
T2: Trainspotting, $7K
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 3/24

Post by Shrykespeare »

Weekend Estimates

Top 10:
5 points - Beauty and the Beast, $88.3M
4 points - Power Rangers, $40.5M
3 points - Kong: Skull Island, $14.4M
2 points - Life, $12.6M
1 point - Logan, $10.1M
Get Out, $8.7M
CHiPs, $7.6M
The Shack, $3.8M
The LEGO Batman Movie, $2.0M
The Belko Experiment, $1.8M


PTA:
5 points - Beauty and the Beast
4 points - Power Rangers
3 points - T2: Trainspotting
2 points - Life
1 point - Kong: Skull Island

Wilson's PTA was only $1,065.
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 3/24

Post by Shrykespeare »

Weekend Actuals

Top 10:
5 points - Beauty and the Beast, $90.4M
4 points - Power Rangers, $40.3M
3 points - Kong: Skull Island, $14.7M
2 points - Life, $12.5M
1 point - Logan, $10.3M
Get Out, $8.9M
CHiPs, $7.7M
The Shack, $3.9M
The LEGO Batman Movie, $2.1M
The Belko Experiment, $1.9M


PTA:
5 points - Beauty and the Beast, $21,479
4 points - Power Rangersm $10,913
3 points - T2: Trainspotting, $6,601
2 points - Frantz, $4,757
1 point - Kong: Skull Island, $4,002
Happy 60th birthday Jet Li! (4/26/23)

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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 3/24

Post by Chienfantome »

5 PTA points for Frantz in two weeks, good catch.
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