Walleye's Weekly Winners: The Films of 3/17

Mr. Columnist himself presents weekly analysis and tips.

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Walleye413
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Walleye's Weekly Winners: The Films of 3/17

Post by Walleye413 »

Surprise, Surprise! Apparently we really did want another King Kong Movie. And Kristen Stewart is the darling of the Indie world – putting her Twilight fame firmly behind her. This past weekend Logan fell, but not quite as hard as normal. Raw grossed out plenty of followers (Although it was well behind Personal Shopper.) And Get Out continues to be the pick of the season. Until now.

This week the first Mega-Blockbuster of the year is here. It stars Emma Watson. It’s from Disney. But no it’s not a Harry Potter movie. Not Star Wars, not even Marvel. It’s a live action remake of Beauty and the Beast and it’s going to open huge. Like $150 million huge. Disney has slowly been building their live action brand over the past few years with smart movies from good directors. Beauty and the Beast is the perfect storm of star/material/cultural moment however, and it’s going to put all the previous entries in its wake. If you don’t know the story of Beauty and the Beast, you haven’t lived. The Disney cartoon really is a great little movie – wonderful songs, some subtle but strong social commentary. There’s a snarky crowd that likes to talk about Stockholm Syndrome – or in the update how Red Staters will stay away because of the gay plotline. All of that is just noise. This is a lovely movie that generations will all see together. If you don’t have it on your slates in all leagues, you won’t win. Beauty and the Beast will win this week, and the next several – possibly until Fast 8 comes out. It’ll clear 400 million before it’s done. And it’ll be the hit of Halloween costumes in October. Yeah, it’s that big a deal.

No studio was foolish enough to try and standup to the Mouse House on a big scale – but there are several hoping to sneak in under the radar. Your first slate filling option is The Belko Experiment. If you didn’t get enough blood and guts in Raw then this movie is for you. It’s a crazy idea – where an American company locks their employees down inside their office building in Colombia, and says unless they start killing each other – they’ll all die. By all accounts this movie goes even more nuts from there. Think the church scene from Kingsman – ramped up to 11. For game purposes it’s opening in 1200 screens or so, which means bad news in Ultimate – but potential in Box Office. Still, for the same amount you could grab Everything, Everything which is sweeter, and will make way more in May. But, if you need a late grab this might not be worst choice. It might get you 8 million total after an opening in the 3-4 million range.

In terms of true indie options you’ve got a good choice and a bad one. T2 – the Terminator Sequel – Oops make that the Trainspotting Sequel comes out 20 years after the original with all the original cast and director back at it for another dive down the toilet bowl. The original is considered a classic, a highly influential independent film from yore. The current plot probably doesn’t matter much – as the real draw is seeing these characters back in action after so many years. Will lightning strike twice? Well, for game purposes it’ll beat out Raw for the second spot on the PTA list. Plus it’s got a decent 7.7 IMDB rating. There have been some good Indie picks already and more coming up, but this could score you a few points for the next few weeks. Maybe 7-8 PTA total. If you’re a fan of the original and want to cheer on part 2, you could do worse.

Like Frantz. This is probably a great movie, it’s a French-German film in Black and White and set right after World War I. Other than that I can’t find much of a plot and sadly I don’t know any of the talent behind or on the screen. But for game purposes, it’s coming out on a Wednesday (trying to beat the Beauty and the Beast rush) which doesn’t bode well. Perhaps it could be the next Artist, but more than likely it will get a point or 2 in PTA and then quietly slip into the night. Chien, any more insight would be welcome.

And that, as they say, is that. I see rumor of 13 Minutes coming out this weekend – but according to my research that just isn’t so. Another casualty of the Beast? We’ll never know. Join us next week for the return of Ryan Reynolds in “Deadpool – in Space!” CHIPS will do it’s best to destroy 80’s nostalgia. And they’ll both lose to 90’s nostalgia Power Rangers.

Top 5
Beauty and the Beast
King Kong
Logan
Get Out
Lego Batman

PTA
Beauty and the Beast
T2 Trainspotting
King Kong
Raw
Frantz

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Re: Walleye's Weekly Winners: The Films of 3/17

Post by numbersix »

Are we over-estimating Beauty and the Beast? $150m is insane. Will it attract boys and male teens? And will some conservatives back away because of the openly gay reference? Hell, even if it opens to $120m it's still a major success.

Agreed that Trainspotting 2 will do well. It has already made $35m worldwide and has solid reviews (although personally I hated it). As for Frantz, Ozon has a good reputation and In the House scored well on the PTA front, but Music Box don't have much heft. 1-2 PTA points this week is about all it should get.

Top 5
1. Beauty and the Beast - $135m
2. King Kong - $28m
3. Logan - $19m
4. Get Out - $15m
5. The Shack - $6m

PTA: Beauty and the Beast, T2 Trainspotting, Raw, Frantz, King Kong

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Re: Walleye's Weekly Winners: The Films of 3/17

Post by undeadmonkey »

I think $150M is the floor unless audience reaction is poor. Fandango is reporting it their highest selling family film, beating last years Finding Dory, which opened at $135M.

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Re: Walleye's Weekly Winners: The Films of 3/17

Post by Shrykespeare »

Great column, Walleye!

Only two birthdays to tell you about:

Lauren Graham turns 50 on 3/16 (but you knew that)
Glenn Close turns 70 on 3/19 (and... time to change my avatar)
Happy 60th birthday Jet Li! (4/26/23)

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Re: Walleye's Weekly Winners: The Films of 3/17

Post by Chienfantome »

Walleye413 wrote:Chien, any more insight would be welcome.
François Ozon is one of the masters of today's French cinema, and some of his films have fared good at the US box-office, in terms of PTA I mean. This one is a César Award winner (the French Oscars), and won a prize at Venice's mostra too, and the lead is one of the hottest young French actors around (the youngest to ever win the César for best actor for his portrayal of Yves Saint Laurent a couple of years back).
So I'd say Frantz does have the pedrigree to make his mark in the PTA race, although far behind the big guns. It won't get much, but it will get something for sure, and for its cheap price tag, you'll probably get guaranteed 3 or 4 PTA points which isn't bad.
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Re: Walleye's Weekly Winners: The Films of 3/17

Post by Walleye413 »

Thanks my friend! Now I really want to see it!

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Re: Walleye's Weekly Winners: The Films of 3/17

Post by undeadmonkey »

There's some crazy numbers being thrown around for Beauty and the Beast. lets see where the actual numbers are once the dust settles.

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Re: Walleye's Weekly Winners: The Films of 3/17

Post by numbersix »

After those Thurs night figures I'm thinking it could hit $160m+

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Re: Walleye's Weekly Winners: The Films of 3/17

Post by Buscemi »

Beauty and the Beast is looking at a $177 million weekend (a new March record, though Batman v. Superman's Easter record looks safe for now as The Fate of the Furious is tracking below its numbers) according to early estimates. With an A Cinemascore (surprised it wasn't an A+), it should hit those numbers easily.

Meanwhile, no numbers yet but The Belko Experiment is looking to open to $3-4 million based on Thursday night preview numbers but I think it dips lower (I expect word of mouth will terrible as it's such a grim film when audiences are looking are looking for escapist genre fare with happy endings, such as Get Out and Split).

At first, I wasn't really understanding why Beauty and the Beast was doing so well (I was expecting more Cinderella than The Jungle Book) but it makes sense to me now. The film has had a much more diverse audience than Cinderella did (Cinderella played almost exclusively to women) and was marketed a lot better (that dreadful cover of the title theme that somehow makes John Legend sound like a country musician is everywhere right now).
Everything on this post is strictly the opinion and only the opinion of Buscemi.

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Re: Walleye's Weekly Winners: The Films of 3/17

Post by Shrykespeare »

Friday Estimates:

Beauty and the Beast, $63.8M (holy SHIT)
Kong: Skull Island, $7.3M
Logan, $4.7M
Get Out, $3.8M
The Shack, $1.6M
The Belko Experiment, $1.5M
The LEGO Batman Movie, $1.2M
Happy 60th birthday Jet Li! (4/26/23)

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Re: Walleye's Weekly Winners: The Films of 3/17

Post by Walleye413 »

That's almost as much in 24 hours as Logan made all weekend!
And the Matinees today and tomorrow will be huge!

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Re: Walleye's Weekly Winners: The Films of 3/17

Post by Shrykespeare »

Weekend Predictions:

Beauty and the Beast, $175M
Kong: Skull Island, $25.6M ($106M total)
Logan, $16.8M ($183M total)
Get Out, $13M ($132M total)
The Shack, $6M
LEGO Batman, $5.4M
Belko Experiment, $3.5M
Hidden Figures, $1.5M ($165M total)
John Wick 2, $1.1M (almost $90M total)
Before I Fall, $1M


PTA:

Beauty and the Beast, $41K
T2: Trainspotting, $37K
Kong: Skull Island, $6K
Happy 60th birthday Jet Li! (4/26/23)

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Re: Walleye's Weekly Winners: The Films of 3/17

Post by Shrykespeare »

Weekend Estimates

Top 10:
5 points - Beauty and the Beast, $170M
4 points - Kong: Skull Island, $28.8M
3 points - Logan, $17.5M
2 points - Get Out, $13.2M
1 point - The Shack, $6.3M
The LEGO Batman Movie, $4.7M
The Belko Experiment, $4.1M
Hidden Figures, $1.5M
John Wick: Chapter Two, $1.2M
Before I Fall, $1.0M


PTA:
5 points - Beauty and the Beast
4 points - T2: Trainspotting
3 points - Frantz
2 points - Kong: Skull Island
1 point - Logan
Happy 60th birthday Jet Li! (4/26/23)

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Re: Walleye's Weekly Winners: The Films of 3/17

Post by Chienfantome »

So Beauty & the beast has made more in two days than my 1st round pick from the draft (ID4 2) has made in its entire career. :?
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Re: Walleye's Weekly Winners: The Films of 3/17

Post by Shrykespeare »

Weekend Actuals

Top 10:
5 points - Beauty and the Beast, $174.8M
4 points - Kong: Skull Island, $27.8M
3 points - Logan, $17.8M
2 points - Get Out, $13.4M
1 point - The Shack, $6.0M
The LEGO Batman Movie, $4.6M
The Belko Experiment, $4.1M
Hidden Figures, $1.5M
John Wick: Chapter Two, $1.2M
Before I Fall, $985K


PTA:
5 points - Beauty and the Beast, $41,508
4 points - T2: Trainspotting, $34,115
3 points - Frantz, $9,373
2 points - Kong: Skull Island, $7,237
1 point - Raw, $5,385
Happy 60th birthday Jet Li! (4/26/23)

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