The (Vain)Glorious Return of Speare's Tips - Films of 3/10

Mr. Columnist himself presents weekly analysis and tips.

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Shrykespeare
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The (Vain)Glorious Return of Speare's Tips - Films of 3/10

Post by Shrykespeare »

Last weekend, Hugh Jackman's swan song as the down-and-out Wolverine sliced and cussed his way to a whopping $88.4M, as Logan posted (I think), the highest R-rated opening in March ever. It also handily took the PTA crown, and honestly, it was a breath of fresh air for a tired Marvel franchise. And the Deadpool teaser in front of it? Hilarious!

Get Out held like a stone-cold MF, dropping only 15.4% and pulling in another $28.2M. It's a shoo-in for blockbuster status, and how many of us thought THAT would happen? God-pic The Shack Kobe'd up $16.2M for third place, with early February holdovers LEGO Batman and John Wick Chapter 2 rounding out the Top 5.

Only one major film has the giant hairy balls to take on Logan's second weekend, and that is Kong: Skull Island (Warner Bros.), opening wide and large in I'm guessing around 3,500 screens this weekend. It's directed by Jordan Vogt-Roberts, whose only big-screen credit so far that I could find was 2013's The Kings of Summer. He's got some monster-sized shoes to fill to make this movie a hit, but at least he has some A-listers helping him out: Samuel L. Jackson, John Goodman, John C. Reilly, Tom Hiddleston, and last year's Best Actress winner, Brie Larson.

Now, whether you like movies about skyscraper-sized monsters or not, let's not forget just WHY this movie was made ... producer Thomas Tull was also one of the producers for the 2014 surprise hit Godzila, so who wants to bet there'll be a film in the next few years with the word "Vs." in the title?

Kong does have a few things going for it: if Logan drops as hard in its second week as previous Wolverine movies have, there might just be enough room for the big ape to sneak into the #1 spot. Next week's uber-mega-superhyped blockbuster-to-be Beauty and the Beast appeals to a wider (and far different) audience than Kong, so though the potential audience may brush the edges of the two films on either side of it, it's one of the more unique films on the schedule. There really isn't another big film coming after Beauty until May (except for Fate of the Furious), so I'm predicting a $48M OW for Kong. The sparsness of the schedule for its first two weeks will help it, not hurt it, and by the time Kong goes back into cinematic hibernation, it'll have rake in about $125M, eleven T5, five PTA and a Rating just north of 7. It's only $20 in the March Ultimate leagues ($23 in Box Office), so if you can squeeze it in alongside the top-tier films on your studio, I say go for it.




Up next is the feel-good movie of the spring, Raw (Focus World), a French-Belgian horror/thriller about a vegetarian college student (Garance Marillier) who undergoes a carnivorous hazing ritual (BASTARDS!) and then afterwards develops an unbidden taste for meat. Human meat. Yeah, it's a cannibal movie! Take the kids!

In all seriousness, this film was originally screened at the Cannes Film Festival during International Critics' Week, where it was awarded the FIPRESCI Prize. It's Rotten Tomatoes score is deliciously good, and if the theater count is right, it could pack in moviegoers with strong constitutions all weekend long (yes, it's THAT graphic, Eli Roth would be proud). It's only $4 in March Ultimate, and with the dearth of any other possible $10K-PTA earners in the mix, this could be one to slip unnoticed onto your plates ... I mean, slates. And let this be a lesson - vegetarians be crazy.




The final film this weekend is The Ottoman Lieutenant (Paladin), a Turkish-American WW1 drama helmed by veteran director Joseph Ruben (remember Breaking Away? True Believer? Sleeping With the Enemy?). The one-line plot is that it's a love story between an "idealistic American nurse" (Hera Hilmar) and a Turkish officer (Michiel Huisman) during World War One. I've never heard of either actor, but the supporting cast also includes Ben Kingsley and Josh Hartnett, so there's that. What there ISN'T is a lot of critical support (20% on RT), so I would probably pass on this film, even for $3. There have to be better cheapies on the docket somewhere.





Weekend Predictions:

Kong: Skull Island, $48M
Logan, $42M
Get Out, $19M
The Shack, $9M
The LEGO Batman Movie, $7M

PTA: Raw, Kong: Skull Island, Logan, Get Out, The Last Word


Well, that will do it for me. Next week, Walleye will tackle Beauty and the Beast and its mammoth predictions, its fabulous costumes and its first openly gay relationship EVER in a Disney movie. Also on tap is some movie called The (Sgt.) Belko Experiment, as well as indie releases T2: Trainspotting and Frantz.

Shameless plug - Book One of my new science-fantasy series, The Wielders of Arantha - Book One: Pawns will be hitting Amazon (I hope) some time in the next month, so keep your eyes peeled for that!

Later!
Happy 60th birthday Jet Li! (4/26/23)

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numbersix
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Re: The (Vain)Glorious Return of Speare's Tips - Films of 3/

Post by numbersix »

Welcome back, Shryke!

Good analysis of Kong. Not sure if it will make that much, though. I'm just not sure if there's enough appetite, especially with Logan doing so well. I'm thinking 45/110.

Raw will be interesting to watch - Focus World is a strange label, often opening films in 30-50 theatres, which I don't think would benefit Raw. Need to keep a close eye on this.

Kong: Skull Island, $44M
Logan, $43M
Get Out, $20M
The Shack, $10M
The LEGO Batman Movie, $7M

PTA: Raw, Kong: Skull Island, Logan, Get Out, The Last Word

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Re: The (Vain)Glorious Return of Speare's Tips - Films of 3/

Post by Chienfantome »

Good to read you again Shryke !!

Word of mouth is good on Kong, it could do better than people expect. I'm trusting it on a few slates.
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Re: The (Vain)Glorious Return of Speare's Tips - Films of 3/

Post by undeadmonkey »

For how much i enjoy jackson's Kong, i just have not been interested in this one, but might check it out anyway.

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Re: The (Vain)Glorious Return of Speare's Tips - Films of 3/

Post by Walleye413 »

I always feel like we're in such good hands when Shryke is around.

Having drafted Kong I really want it to do well, but I'm torn. It's certainly not necessary, and I don't have plans to see it, but yes the early reactions on it seem above average. Seems the movies that have done well this year are telling stories with a new perspective. If Kong does that - it might hit $150 after all. And hopefully it means we get even better, fresher movies in the future.

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Re: The (Vain)Glorious Return of Speare's Tips - Films of 3/

Post by BanksIsDaFuture »

I hope Kong does that well, but I don't see much buzz for it, even though it's getting better-than-expected reviews.

1. Logan - $45M
2. Kong: Skull Island - $27M
3. Get Out - $19M
4. The Shack - $10M
5. LEGO Batman - $7M
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Re: The (Vain)Glorious Return of Speare's Tips - Films of 3/

Post by Shrykespeare »

Celebrity birthdays:

Rob Reiner turned 70 on 3/6
Connie Britton turned 50 on 3/6
James Van der Beek turned 40 on 3/8
Bree Turner turns 40 on 3/10
Happy 60th birthday Jet Li! (4/26/23)

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Shrykespeare
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Re: The (Vain)Glorious Return of Speare's Tips - Films of 3/

Post by Shrykespeare »

Kong killed it on Thursday. They're predicting high $40s.
Happy 60th birthday Jet Li! (4/26/23)

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Walleye413
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Re: The (Vain)Glorious Return of Speare's Tips - Films of 3/

Post by Walleye413 »

61 Million for the King!

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Re: The (Vain)Glorious Return of Speare's Tips - Films of 3/

Post by undeadmonkey »

I guess it wasn't a mistake to open in March

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Re: The (Vain)Glorious Return of Speare's Tips - Films of 3/

Post by Shrykespeare »

Weekend Actuals

Top 10:
5 points - Kong: Skull Island, $61.0M
4 points - Logan, $38.1M
3 points - Get Out, $20.7M
2 points - The Shack, $10.0M
1 point - The LEGO Batman Movie, $7.6M
Before I Fall, $3.0M
Hidden Figures, $2.8M
John Wick: Chapter Two, $2.7M
La La Land, $1.8M
Fifty Shades Darker, $1.7M



PTA:
5 points - Kong: Skull Island, $15,867
4 points - Raw, $12,413
3 points - Logan, $9,362
2 points - Get Out, $6,600
1 point - The Shack, $3,465
Happy 60th birthday Jet Li! (4/26/23)

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