SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE - FILMS OF 03/03

Mr. Columnist himself presents weekly analysis and tips.

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numbersix
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SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE - FILMS OF 03/03

Post by numbersix »

As the Oscars were fucking themselves up, last weekend had a much greater surprise in store. The small indie comedy horror Get Out managed to break into the mainstream and open to rave reviews, a high Cinemascore, and a $33m opening weekend. Jordan Peele has President Trump to thank for angering the nation enough to blow off steam by engaging with a film as political as this. But enough of the real world…



The weekend’s big release is Logan (Fox). With a title like that it must be about a rural woodcutter. Or a celeb couple’s unfortunately named child. Nope, it’s actually an X-Men film. Perhaps Fox realised that their franchise is showing diminishing returns and opted to make more money by pretending it’s something else. Or, more likely, the third Wolverine film is so different from the others that it needs to distance itself in title.

Indeed, critics are impressed by this film, likening it to a Western more than yet another FX-heavy spectacle. And, with news that it’s more than likely to be Hugh Jackman’s final film as the character, and certainly Patrick Stewart’s last appearance as Prof Xavier, this should hit audiences as a fond farewell to someone we’ve spent 15 years slashing through our screens. The one interesting bit of info is that it’s rated R. The only March R-Rated release to open high was 300, which opened to $70m a decade ago. With strong reviews, a pinch of nostalgia, and lack of competition, this film should open in the mid 70s. Competition will be fierce, with next weekend’s Kong film being direct competition, but you’re still likely to see this crossing the $200m mark, and earning around 13 T5 points, 6 PTA, and a decent IMDB score. If you didn’t pick up LEGO Batman (which irritatingly underperformed), then this may be a stronger alternative, though not as good as Beauty and the Beast or The Fate of the Furious.




Oh God, another Christian movie? The little Bible bubble they experienced a few years ago has long been burst, yet the films continue. This time it’s The Shack (Lionsgate/Summit), about a grieving man who is offered to meet God in a mysterious hut. Don’t do it, Grieving Man, it’s probably just an old pervert in a trenchcoat waving his wand around. What’s interesting is that it’s being distributed by a major studio, who earned big bucks off Oscar winner… I mean loser La La Land. So they have money to sink into this. While it’s unlikely to be another Heaven is for Real, or even The War Room, you could end up with a result close to Risen. I’m going to say it’ll make lower, opening at about $7m and earning $21 in total. That’ll result in 2-3 T5 points, an average IMDB score, and that’s about it. Probably not worth your $6-$8 in BO or Ult, unless you pray for a miracle and it surprises.




Before I Fall (Open Road) sounds like a title ripe for puns and general mockery. Too many to fit into this paragraph. The story is about a teen reliving her last day over and over. And it’s a YA novel adaptation. Groundhog Day meets The Hunger Games, except neither good nor big. Indeed, it lacks any major cast, nor does the director have a great track record, so it’s essentially down to the popularity of the book. And even that doesn’t guarantee a success. So I suspect this will limbo-dance under the radar, with a $5m opening, a $12m cume, no T5, no PTA, and a poor-ish IMDB. Regardless of price, drop this title before it falls.




On the limited front the most appealing title is The Last Word (Bleecker St). It’s an older-skewing drama about the unlikely friendship between a controlling retired businesswoman and a journalist. Shirley MacLaine received some good review out of Sundance, and Bleecker know how to sell a film like this. As long as it opens in a handful of theatres, you should get at least 5 PTA points, which isn’t bad for $3. And with next week’s competition being slim, it could do even better.




On the other side is Table 19 (Fox Searchlight), a dramedy about the reject table in a wedding. It’s a fun premise, and a strong cast (Anna Kendrick, Craig Robinson, Lisa Kudrow). Reviews will play a part in its success, but more importantly so will theatre count. There’s talk it could open in a few hundred threatres, meaning avoid like … well, the rejects table in a wedding. If, however, if opens in a few theatres (which is more Searchlight’s style) then you could see it pick up some points. So watch closely.




My predictions for the weekend

1. Logan - $75m
2. Get Out - $18m
3. The LEGO Batman Movie - $11m
4. The Shack - $7m
5. John Wick Chapter Two - $5m


PTA: Logan, The Last Word, Table 19, Get Out, Lego Batman


Next Week will see the return of something pretty special. No, not another goddamn Marvel film, but the return of Shryke, who has fortunately recovered from surgery. Glad you’re back – we’ve ruined your organised systems and made your careful spreadsheets and lists look like Jackson Pollack paintings! He’ll be taking a look at Godzilla prequel Kong: Skull Island, obscure foreign language title The Ottoman Lieutenant, and my favourite film of 2017 so far, French cannibal film Raw. Yum.

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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE - FILMS OF 03/03

Post by Shrykespeare »

Thanks for reminding me about next week, Six, and thanks for the chaos. (Which wasn't so bad, though I've now unraveled most of it.... now if only everyone could fill out their goddang rosters!!)

Love your predictions. I'm not even sure The Shack or Before I Fall will do THAT well. We'll see.
Happy 60th birthday Jet Li! (4/26/23)

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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE - FILMS OF 03/03

Post by BanksIsDaFuture »

numbersix wrote:Don’t do it, Grieving Man, it’s probably just an old pervert in a trenchcoat waving his wand around.
YOU WILL NOT DISRESPECT ALBUS DUMBLEDORE LIKE THIS, SIR.
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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE - FILMS OF 03/03

Post by Shrykespeare »

Official theater counts

Logan - 4,071
The Shack - 2,888
Before I Fall - 2,346
Table 19 - 868
The Last Word - 4


Celebrity birthdays:

John Turturro turned 60 on 2/28
Harry Belafonte turned 90 on 3/1
George Eads turned 50 on 3/1
Happy 60th birthday Jet Li! (4/26/23)

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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE - FILMS OF 03/03

Post by Brockster »

I'm not even sure The Shack will do THAT well. We'll see.
YOU WILL NOT DISRESPECT JESUS LIKE THIS, SIR.

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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE - FILMS OF 03/03

Post by Shrykespeare »

Ain't nobody disrespectin' Jeebus! Chill!
Happy 60th birthday Jet Li! (4/26/23)

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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE - FILMS OF 03/03

Post by Shrykespeare »

Friday Estimates

Logan, $33M
Get Out, $8M
The Shack, $5.4M
Lego Batman, $2.5M
Before I Fall, $1.7M
John Wick 2, $1.2M
Fifty Shades, $1.2M
Hidden Figures, $1M



Weekend Projections

Logan, $82.5M
Get Out, $26M
The Shack, $14.5M
LEGO Batman, $11.3M
John Wick 2, $4.7M
Before I Fall, $4.5M
Hidden FIgures, $3.7M
The Great Wall, $3.6M
Fifty Shades, $3.5M
La La Land, $3.1M

Table 19, $1.5M ($1,728 PTA)


Looks like I underestimated The Shack after all. And Get Out now looks like a lock for $100M. How 'bout that.
Happy 60th birthday Jet Li! (4/26/23)

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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE - FILMS OF 03/03

Post by W »

Should have listened to my gut on The Shack. I had it pegged around $50 M when I picked it up on HSX years ago. I saw the novel in Wal-Mart prominently for a very long time. Heard no buzz, figured I was wrong.
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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE - FILMS OF 03/03

Post by Shrykespeare »

Weekend Estimates

Top 10:
5 points - Logan, $85.3M
4 points - Get Out, $26.1M
3 points - The Shack, $16.1M
2 points - The LEGO Batman Movie, $11.6M
1 point - Before I Fall, $4.9M
John Wick: Chapter Two, $4.7M
Hidden Figures, $3.8M
The Great Wall, $3.5M
Fifty Shades Darker, $3.5M
La La Land, $3.0M


PTA:
5 points - Logan
4 points - The Last Word
3 points - Get Out
2 points - The Shack
1 point - The LEGO Batman Movie
Happy 60th birthday Jet Li! (4/26/23)

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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE - FILMS OF 03/03

Post by BanksIsDaFuture »

That hold by Get Out is goddamn ridiculous.
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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE - FILMS OF 03/03

Post by Shrykespeare »

Weekend Actuals

Top 10:
5 points - Logan, $88.4M
4 points - Get Out, $28.2M
3 points - The Shack, $16.2M
2 points - The LEGO Batman Movie, $11.7M
1 point - John Wick: Chapter Two, $4.8M
Before I Fall, $4.7M
Hidden Figures, $3.8M
The Great Wall, $3.6M
Fifty Shades Darker, $3.6M
La La Land, $3.0M


PTA:
5 points - Logan, $21,717
4 points - Get Out, $9,611
3 points - The Last Word, $7,908
2 points - The Shack, $5,600
1 point - The LEGO Batman Movie, $3,201
Happy 60th birthday Jet Li! (4/26/23)

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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE - FILMS OF 03/03

Post by Buscemi »

Meanwhile, Collide has the biggest second weekend drop in history, shedding almost 89% from its previous weekend (of course, it dropped half its theatres as it was an independent film that didn't hit $1,500 opening weekend).

And then I noticed that I saw four of the five biggest second weekend drop movies in the theatre.
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