Walleye's Weekly Winners: The Films of 2/24

Mr. Columnist himself presents weekly analysis and tips.

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Walleye413
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Walleye's Weekly Winners: The Films of 2/24

Post by Walleye413 »

What a boring Presidents Day weekend. Everyone in America must have been out protesting the new President and it made for a very dull weekend at the Cineplex. What’s traditionally one of the bigger weekends of the early year fell pretty flat. Lego Batman won the weekend pretty easily, but fell harder than the previous Lego movie. Fifty Shades held on better than its predecessor, but still wasn’t too titillating. The biggest debut was The Great Wall, and that was called a bomb by most analysts. Fist Fight lacked punch, and A Cure for Wellness tanked. Boring!

And don’t expect much different from this weekend either. Everyone must be saving their nickels for the powerhouse movies of March. But, it’s another weekend all the same, and there are some movies to consider for your slate, so we’ll soldier on regardless my friends.

Your first movie choice is the best of the bunch, but now without some caution. Get Out is directed by Jordan Peele, of Key and Peele fame, and many are expecting this to win the weekend. Horror is doing well in 2017 (Well, Split is, but let’s not quibble), and Get Out is a fresh approach to the genre. According to Peele, he’s going for a vibe part Scream, part Social commentary on the hidden and subtle racism that still exists in America (not to mention the not-so-subtle stuff.) The reviews are stellar and all signs point to a potential break out hit. But a word of caution: Keanu. That comedy from Key and Peele, released a year ago, had the look of a breakout hit as well, and boy did that not happen (“only” 20 million.) So, add Get Out to your slates, but don’t be shocked if it underperforms its now lofty expectations. I’ll predict 21 million on it’s way to 46 million or so. You'll get 7-8 Top 5 points, and a great IMDB rating too. Your call.

Speaking of Social Commentary, it was interesting to hear so many folks dismiss Fifty Shades Darker as a bad movie, that was only made to satisfy middle-aged women and their silly sexual desires. Well, I give you Collide. A bad movie that was only made to satisfy adolescent boys and their silly car-driving, hero-worship, girl-getting desires. And there have been lots of Collides over the years. Honestly, I don’t know how crap like this gets made, and why it’s not dismissed in the same way that other pandering movies are dismissed. Regardless, it’s coming out and if you want to add it to your slates, or heck even go see it, do so with your head held high and screw the judgment of others (mine included.) That’s the joy of a diverse cinema, right? How’s that for Social Commentary! I predict 4 million for the weekend and a cap at 9 million total. No Top 5 points and terribly IMDB score to drive home the point.

Our last wide release is Rock Dog, an animated movie with a way cooler backstory than actual product. Near as I can tell, this is a Chinese/American production from a brand new company, produced with independent dollars, and designed to try and be a hit with slightly different plots/line depending on whether it’s released in China or America. Sadly, it doesn’t seem to be working in either country. Rock Dog is going to go nowhere in the States, and nowhere for your slate. Parents are going to wait until Beauty and the Beast comes out to take their kids out to the theatre, or they’ll go see Sing, or Moana, heck they may watch Zootopia at home. But they won’t be watching Rock Dog. I’ve got no guess on the opening to this – maybe 7 million curiosity seekers, with a total of 17 million. I'm thinking 0 Top 5 points, and a low IMDB score to add insult to injury.

Last but not least, take a look at Bitter Harvest. The print advertising on this is that it’s a love story, but the setting is brutal. It’s in the era of Stalin, and the starvation death camps that produced a near genocide of the Ukrainian people in the 1930’s. Certainly a timely topic given all that’s going on in the world, but for that very reason, I’m not sure people want to go watch a movie about something even more depressing than actual events. As it’s the only new limited release for game purposes this week, it’ll get you a few points in Ultimate leagues. But by next weekend it will be out of those too. I’d pass, and pick up something in March. All the studios are acting that way too.

Tulip Fever was supposed to come out this weekend, but it just got bumped to TBD, so if you’ve got it on any slates, better move it now. And watch Alicia Vikander in something else instead. Might I suggest The Light Between Oceans? Or the Reel Society fave Ex Machina? You’ll be glad you did.

Next week we finally get some interesting movies again – and some challenging choices for your slates. How big will Logan be? Will Beauty and the Beast be the better deal? Do you believe in Ghosts or a talking baby? March is going to get interesting.


Top 5
Get Out
Lego: Batman (For 14 total)
Fifty Shades (Double Digits here baby)
John Wick
The Great Wall


PTA
Get Out
Bitter Harvest
Lego Batman
A United Kingdom (On its way to double digits too!)
Something else – I really have no idea.

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Re: Walleye's Weekly Winners: The Films of 2/24

Post by transformers2 »

Good stuff Walleye. I actually think Get Out has the potential to hit $75 mil+ if it the WOM is strong enough.
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Re: Walleye's Weekly Winners: The Films of 2/24

Post by Shrykespeare »

Great column Wall!



Ray Winstone turned 60 on 2/19
Benecio del Toro turned 50 on 2/19
Sidney Poitier turned 90 on 2/20
Kurt Cobain would have turned 50 on 2/20
Lili Taylor turned 50 on 2/20
Ashley Greene turned 30 on 2/21

Edward James Olmos turns 70 on 2/24
Isabelle Fuhrman turns 20 on 2/25
Happy 60th birthday Jet Li! (4/26/23)

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undeadmonkey
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Re: Walleye's Weekly Winners: The Films of 2/24

Post by undeadmonkey »

I still really want to see The Great Wall and Cure for Wellness, but maybe i'll wait for DVD.

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Re: Walleye's Weekly Winners: The Films of 2/24

Post by Chienfantome »

The Great Wall did a bit better than expected in the end, and The Cure for Wellness even worse than expected.
The only film I'm touching this week is Get Out.
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numbersix
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Re: Walleye's Weekly Winners: The Films of 2/24

Post by numbersix »

I think Get Out will hold better than you think, Walleye. Good reviews should help that, and make it more than a Keanu, which had a terrible release date.

All good points on the other films. Avoiding Collide and Rock Dog entirely.

Top 5
1.Get Out - $22m
2. Lego: Batman - $21m
3. The Great Wall - $9m
4. Fifty Shades Darker - $9m
5. John Wick - $8.5m

PTA: Get Out, Bitter Harvest, Lego Batman, The Great Wall, A United Kingdom

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Walleye413
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Re: Walleye's Weekly Winners: The Films of 2/24

Post by Walleye413 »

Underestimated Get Out and overestimated Rock Dog and Collide. Another perfect week!

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Re: Walleye's Weekly Winners: The Films of 2/24

Post by Shrykespeare »

Top 10:
5 points - Get Out, $30.5M
4 points - LEGO Batman, $19M
3 points - John Wick 2, $9M
2 points - The Great Wall, $8.7M
1 point - Fifty Shades Darker, $7.7M (now over $100M)
Fist Fight, $6.4M
Hidden Figures, $5.9M
La La Land, $4.6M
Split, $4.1M
Lion, $3.8M


PTA:
5 points - Get Out
4 points - LEGO Batman
3 points - A United Kingdom
2 points - John Wick 2
1 point - Hidden Figures
Happy 60th birthday Jet Li! (4/26/23)

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Re: Walleye's Weekly Winners: The Films of 2/24

Post by Shrykespeare »

Weekend Actuals

Top 10:
5 points - Get Out, $33.4M
4 points - The LEGO Batman Movie, $19.2M
3 points - John Wick: Chapter Two, $9.4M
2 points - The Great Wall, $9.1M
1 point - Fifty Shades Darker, $7.8M
Fist Fight, $6.6M
Hidden Figures, $5.8M
La La Land, $4.7M
Split, $4.1M
Lion, $3.8M


PTA:
5 points - Get Out, $12,002
4 points - The LEGO Batman Movie, $4,735
3 points - A United Kingdom, $3,427
2 points - John Wick: Chapter Two, $3,168
1 point - Hidden Figures, $2,871
Happy 60th birthday Jet Li! (4/26/23)

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