Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 2/3

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transformers2
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Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 2/3

Post by transformers2 »

Much to the chagrin of its twist-obsessed director, Split surprised practically no one by topping the box office for a 2nd straight week. The buzzed-about thriller held strong (36% drop) grossing $25.6 mil and easily held off heartwarming tearjerker/animal abuse showcase A Dog's Purpose ($18.2 mil) for the number 1 spot. M. Night Shyamalan's comeback film has made a very impressive $78.9 mil through 10 days of release and with its great WOM, $120-30 mil appears to be realistic.

The rest of the weekend played out in similarly predictable fashion as Resident Evil : The Final Chapter had a so-so debut grossing $13.6 mil, Gold surpassed Two for the Money as the biggest bomb of Matthew McConaughey's career and crowd-pleasing Oscar nominees Hidden Figures and La La Land each crossed $100 mil.

Wide Releases
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After being pulled from the schedule for two consecutive falls, Rings (Paramount) is finally hitting theaters! With VHS tapes no longer relevant in the present day, Paramount decided to update this "horrifying" franchise about an emaciated little girl that comes out of your household electronics and kills you a week after you view her special video message for the social media/internet age. In Rings, some group of college-age dumbasses played by a bunch of anonymous 30-year old actors view the deadly video and proceed to spent the last 7 days of their lives trying to solve the mystery behind it. I think an emotionally-crushed (and clearly financially troubled) Vincent D'Onofrio also shows up for a couple of scenes as some kind of expert on this stupid tape, so it should be a great time at the cinema.

Trying to gauge how Rings will perform at the box office is a legitimately tortuous exercise. On the one hand, it's been 12 years since The Ring Two was released and Split could've very well filled the void horror fans needed after a slow November/December. On the other, The Ring is still one of the most celebrated horror movies of the 2000's, that idiotic TV store promotional prank video went viral last week and lord knows that 14-year olds in the suburbs need to something to do on a Friday night while they're loitering around the mall. I'm going to predict a $17 mil opening, 5 top 5 points, 4 PTA, an IMDB around 4.5 and a final BO of around $32 mil. Even with it's inevitable steep drop next weekend, it's cheap enough in both formats ($8) to be a respectable pickup if you're looking for a cheap filler option.


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Like Rings,The Space Between Us (STX Entertainment is another long-delayed film (it was originally slated to be released last August) that finally found its home on Super Bowl weekend. However unlike Rings, this movie has basically nothing going for it. It tells the story of a human kid that was born on Mars (Asa Butterfield) that falls in love with a girl on Earth (Britt Robertson) via some Skype-esque service. Of course, he eventually heads to Earth to be with her, but as a screaming Gary Oldman warns us in the trailer, the living conditions on Mars make him incapable of breathing in Earth's atmosphere for a prolonged period of time. I'm sure the climax will send shock waves throughout every nearly-empty 62-seat auditorium its playing in this weekend.

STX is clearly banking on The Space Between Us to get some kind of pre-Valentine's Day bump with this release date, but I doubt that female or date night audiences are going to give a shit, especially with Fifty Shades Darker hitting theaters next weekend. I'm expecting The Space Between Us to open with $4 mil, pick up no top 5 or PTA points, get an IMDB score around 6.4 and skid to about $11 mil before it gets kicked out of theaters in a few weeks. Skip the shit out of this one.



Limited Releases
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Raoul Peck's I Am Not Your Negro (Magnolia/Amazon Studios)could not possibly be arriving at a more opportune time in the United States. Using the manuscript of late civil rights activist James Baldwin's unpublished book on race relations in America as inspiration, Peck illustrates how Baldwin's words and ideologies still ring true in modern day America. ]I Am Not Your Negro's approximately 50-theater opening would normally hurt its PTA chances, but given the lack of BO firepower this weekend and the buzz it picked up from its Best Documentary Oscar nomination, it's got a shot at taking the crown. Even if it ends up losing out to Rings or another unforeseen challenger this weekend, I'm expecting a PTA haul of at least 6 points before the end of its run. It's low IMDB is a bit concerning (4.8 as of today), but given its price ($4) and the general lack of PTA options on the slate between now and the end of April, I believe it's a worthwhile pick.


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While it has the most star power of any new release (Robert De Niro, Leslie Mann, Danny DeVito, Edie Falco) by a considerable margin, The Comedian (Sony Classics) has arguably the bleakest prospects for our game. De Niro's passion project about an aging former TV star trying to break into the world of stand-up comedy falls into that dreaded category of "too wide to score any PTA points yet too limited to succeed at the box office" (I couldn't find an exact theater count, but it's opening at least 8 theaters in my area, which means it's a semi-wide release. It also doesn't help that the film has been poorly received (22 RT%, 4.8 IMDB) by the limited audiences that have seen it and the promotion behind it has been pretty weak outside of the obligatory late-night talk show appearances. I'm expecting an opening of about $1 mil, an IMDB around 5.5, no top or PTA points and a final gross of $2.5-3 mil. In other words, don't take this fucking movie.


Weekend Predictions
1.Rings $17 mil
2.Split $14 mil
3.A Dog's Purpose $13 mil
4.Hidden Figures $10 mil
5.La La Land $8 mil

PTA: I Am Not Your Negro, The Salesman, Rings, Toni Erdmann, A Dog's Purpose,

Tune in next week when six gets to write about a slate of movies that could actually factor into our game headlined by the hotly-anticipated Lego Batman Movie, the aforementioned Fifty Shades Darker and Keanu Reeves hitman ass-kicking fest John Wick: Chapter 2.
Last edited by transformers2 on February 2nd, 2017, 9:48 am, edited 1 time in total.
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BanksIsDaFuture
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 2/3

Post by BanksIsDaFuture »

In the Year Long Draft Leagues, I'm hoping that teenage couples buy tickets to The Space Between Us in order to sneak into 50 Shades.

Don't know what to think of Rings, if it's PG-13, $17M is possible.

1. Rings - $15M
2. Split - $14M
3. A Dog's Purpose - $12M
4. The Space Between Us - $10M
5. Hidden Figures - $8M
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 2/3

Post by transformers2 »

BanksIsDaFuture wrote:In the Year Long Draft Leagues, I'm hoping that teenage couples buy tickets to The Space Between Us in order to sneak into 50 Shades.
I think Lego Batman will pick up that distinct honor.
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Walleye413
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 2/3

Post by Walleye413 »

Wow, flashback. I think the last time I did that I bought tickets for Peggy Sue got Married in order to see 52 Pick Up. Should have seen Peggy Sue.

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numbersix
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 2/3

Post by numbersix »

Think you're too high on Rings, Tranny. You're right that Split has sucked in the horror crowd (and more), and I don't see this benefiting in any way. It's been so long since the last one. I think this is a major miss. Might go a little higher than you on The Space Between Us, but only a tad.

What is with that IMDB score for I Am Not your Negro? The reviews from critics are amazing. And think you forgot The Salesman in the PTA prediction


1. Split - $13M
2. Rings - $12M
3. A Dog's Purpose - $11M
4. Hidden Figures - $9M
5. La La Land - $8M
6. The Space Between Us - $7M

PTA: I Am Not your Negro, The Salesman, Split, Rings, Toni Erdmann

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transformers2
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 2/3

Post by transformers2 »

numbersix wrote: And think you forgot The Salesman in the PTA prediction
Shit I did. I just updated my picks. Thank you for pointing that out.
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transformers2
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 2/3

Post by transformers2 »

Weekend Actuals:
5 points-Split $14.4 mil
4 points-Rings $13.0 mil
3 points-A Dog's Purpose $10.5 mil
2 points-Hidden Figures $10.2 mil
1 point-La La Land $7.4 mil
Resident Evil: The Final Chapter $4.7 mil
Sing $4.0 mil
xXx: The Return of Xander Cage $3.9 mil
The Space Between Us $3.8 mil
Lion $3.7 mil

PTA:
5 points-I Am Not Your Negro
4 points-The Salesman
3 points-Rings
2 points-Split
1 point-Toni Erdmann
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undeadmonkey
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 2/3

Post by undeadmonkey »

Split was really good for my fantasy movie league

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