SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE - FILMS OF 01/27

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numbersix
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SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE - FILMS OF 01/27

Post by numbersix »

Brexit is ravaging the UK. Trump is taking apart the US AND denying everything he’s doing. And what’s more shocking is that audiences are giving M Night Shamalayan a second chance and flocking to see Split, which made $40m last weekend. Oh what strange times we live in.




In an era of endless entries to cinematic universes, it’s nice to see something end. Resident Evil: The Final Chapter (Sony) is a mercy killing, finally ending the franchise that few really needed closure on. Especially when it has been 5 years since the last one and 15 since the first. The story presumably follows Milla Jovovich’s character as she battles with her fiercest enemy yet: age. And there are probably some zombies and lethal AI in the background somewhere. Underworld: Blood Wars proved that a steady franchise can fall flat on its face, and expect Resident Evil to do the same. So that means an opening in the mid teens, and for that you’ll get maybe 4 Top 5 points max, 1 PTA if it’s lucky, and about $35m in total , and an IMDB score that’s under 6.0. That’s not really worth your hard earned $11 in Ultimate or even $10 in BO. In video game terms, it’s just another cut scene, so hit that button and skip.




Are you a cat movie person or a dog movie person? Going by BO, give me the latter. Sure, kitties have Puss In Boots, but dogs rule with successes like Scooby Doo, Hotel for Dogs, and the classic Beverley Hills Chihuahua. And so we come to A Dog’s Purpose (Universal), Lasse Hallstrom’s latest drama about a reincarnating pooch. If you ask me, the whole premise sounds barking mad.

Up until recently, I would be screaming at you, Jordan Belfort style, to buy, buy, buy. There hasn’t been a lot of kids films recently, and a film about the importance of dogs will appeal to almost every family in America. Look at how well Marley and Me performed, as it doggy-paddled through children’s tears to make $143m. The weaker cast and release date means it’ll earn less, but I was going to say it’ll end up until $80m. And then TMZ hit, leaking footage of one of the dogs being shoved against its will into a pool of water. Animal rights agencies have hit the film hard, with calls for boycotting the film trending across social networks. And while this isn’t as damaging as Nate Parker’s past on Birth of A Nation, it does seem to be affecting families who have heard all about it. So, I’m going to say an $18m opening and a nevertheless strong hold, finishing with about $60m. That should get you 6-7 T5, 2PTA, and a reasonable IMDB score. So despite the backlash, this is still worth the $8 price tag.




The third wide release if the week is Gold (Weinstein). Gold?

GOLD! ALWAYS BELIEVE IN YOUR SOUL! YOU’VE GOT THE POWER TO KNOW, YOU’RE INDESTRUCTABLE! ALWAYS BELIEVE INNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNN, BECAUSE YOU ARE….

GOLD!

Sorry, got a little distracted there. Initially pushed by the Weinsteins as an Oscar runner, they wisely realized that wouldn’t fly, despite Matthew McConaughey’s balding head. Billed as an action-adventure, Stephen Gaghan’s interests are more in geo-politics, which makes for an uneasy mix. Which is why its RT score is currently 40%. So don’t expect much from this film, maybe a $7m opening and $20m in total, with no PTA or T5 points. Considering its price of $7 in Ultimate and $6 in BO, this Gold won’t even turn out bronze.




The only limited release of the weekend is a doozy of one. The Salesman (Cohen) is the latest film from Iranian director Asghar Farhadi in which a couple moving home in Tehran hav their relationship torn apart by an old tenant. This may not sound exciting, but Farhadi has a knack at making the domestic utterly engaging, as proven by the Oscar-winning A Separation. While this doesn’t have the same kind of buzz, it has just received its own Oscar nom, and with reviews strong, expect this to do well. It should get anywhere from 7-12 PTA points, and seems like the best limited pick of the season. Well worth your $4.


My predictions for the weekend

1. Split - $18.5m
2. A Dog’s Purpose - $18m
3. Resident Evil: The Final Chapter - $16m
4. Hidden Figures - $9m
5. XXX: The Return of Xander Cage - $8m

PTA: The Salesman, The Red Turtle, A Dog’s Purpose, Split ,Resident Evil


Next weekend Tranny has the the joy of trashing two inevitable disasters of films, the long-delayed horror sequel Rings, and the always-unwanted teen sci-fi-rom The Space Between Us, as well as limited release The Comedian and documentary I Am Not Your Negro.

And let’s all spare a thought for Shryke, who is undertaking some serious surgery this week. We’re all thinking of you, pal.

Hopefully they can also remove whatever part of you makes you think The Matrix sequels are any good.

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transformers2
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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE - FILMS OF 01/27

Post by transformers2 »

Good stuff as usual six. Think you're a little high on A Dog's Purpose (I think the TMZ video is going to completely sink it), but everything else sounds about right.
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Ron Burgundy
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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE - FILMS OF 01/27

Post by Ron Burgundy »

Thanks for taking up the initiative to do this weekend column six.

My old man just started reading A dog's purpose, strange times indeed. I didn't even know it was a movie! Let alone a book :)

As for the BO report, dogs have clawed their way to more than respectable totals, but i don't see much buzz surrounding the movie, but then again, im far and away from any type of advertising/buzz catching. Im going to say it can reach $50mil, with a opening of $15m.

I think you got the PTA right though, im gonna have a stab at The Salesman, with that 4 cinema release, should be a lock for 1st.
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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE - FILMS OF 01/27

Post by Chienfantome »

That story about "A Dog's Purpose" couldn't arrive more timely to handicap the film. I'm pretty sure it won't hurt its chances that much though, it's a family film, and once kids will ask their parents to go see the film with all the cute dogs, I can't see parents tell them "See, we can't, I saw a video on TMZ in which one dog used for filming was put in danger". It will still do solid business, even if less indeed than without the polemic.
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undeadmonkey
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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE - FILMS OF 01/27

Post by undeadmonkey »

Dog's Purpose looks terrible. I'll be shocked if it opens well.

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numbersix
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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE - FILMS OF 01/27

Post by numbersix »

Estimates (UPDATED):

1. Split - $26.2m
2. A Dog’s Purpose - $18.3m
3. Hidden Figures - $114m
4. Resident Evil: The Final Chapter - $13.8m
5. La La Land - $12m

PTA:

5 points - The Salesman
4 points - Split
3 points - A Dog's Purpose
2 points - Toni Erdmann
1 point - Resident Evil

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undeadmonkey
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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE - FILMS OF 01/27

Post by undeadmonkey »

Tha'ts a fantastic hold for Split. really wish i had picked it up in the Full Year

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numbersix
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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE - FILMS OF 01/27

Post by numbersix »

ACTUALS

1. Split - $25.6m
2. A Dog’s Purpose - $18.2m
3. Hidden Figures - $14m
4. Resident Evil: The Final Chapter - $13.6m
5. La La Land - $12.2m

PTA:

5 points - The Salesman
4 points - Split
3 points - A Dog's Purpose
2 points - The Red Turtle
1 point - Toni Erdmann

Note that BOM have miscalculated Toni Erdmann's theatre count, but as per BO it just got less than The Red Turtle.

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