The Glorious Return of Speare's Tips - The Films of 1/20

Mr. Columnist himself presents weekly analysis and tips.

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Shrykespeare
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The Glorious Return of Speare's Tips - The Films of 1/20

Post by Shrykespeare »

Wow... been a long time since I've done this. I'd better do some stretching. (snap) Oh shit.... and also... OWWWWW!!!

Last week, feel-good NASA movie Hidden Figures blasted its competitors with over $20 million in its fourth week (wow), beating out Oscar fave La La Land and Sing, which eked out just over $14M each for themselves. In fourth, Bye Bye Man was the only new film to draw an audience at all, claiming $13.5M, while Rogue One: A Star Wars Story brought in a further $13.5M and is tickling the half-bil mark as we speak. In the PTA Race, La La Land edged out Best Foreign Film contender Toni Erdmann to score a victory.

Ahh, January. The frozen wasteland of the schedule. Assuming you're sick of Oscar bait and in the mood for some real LCD stuff, you're in luck. Three films debut in wide release this week, one in mid-range, and two in limited release. And here we go. (Snap) AHHHHHHH! My groin!

I'll start with Split (Universal), the latest attempt by M. Night Shyamalamadingdong to resuscitate his image in the eyes of everyone who ever saw The Crappening. It's been 18 years since The Sixth Sense, and he's really not been able to recapture the magic, but he's done somewhere between meh and slightly less meh since then (The Visit was a pleasant surprise, earning $65M.)

Young Professor X has shaved his beard and his head and is now playing (according to IMDB) Dennis/Patricia/Hedwig/The Beast/Kevin Wendell/Crumb/Barry/Orwell/Jade (I shit you not), a man with 24, count 'em, 24 different personalities. Several of them have conspired to kidnap three pretty young girls who are just old enough to be killed in a horror movie. Knowing M. Night, might there be a twist or two (or 24) in store for them?

Believe it or no, Split has good marks at RT, pleasing 79% of the critics who have seen it. That's a good sign, as is the 3,000-plus theater count. I think this film should easily take #1 this weekend, earning $23M, on its way to eight Top 5 and four PTA, and $55M overall. For $10 in both leagues, you could sure do a lot worse. If you have room on your slate after picking either LEGO Batman or Beauty and the Beast, this could be a decent pick. The User Rating won't hurt you either.




Up next is the less desirable xXx: The Return of Xander Cage (Paramount), flying guns blazing into 3,650 theaters this weekend. How many of you remember the original xXx? I actually do. And I actually liked it. I also hated the Ice Cube-starred sequel, in which they mentioned that Vin Diesel's extreme sports nut turned superspy was killed. Some studio even created a short film in which you SEE HIM DIE (starring some other dude). But now the character is back. Hrm.

Anyway, this film with a plot that doesn't really matter as it's just a tentpole until The Fate of the Furious comes out, returns Samuel L. Jackson as xXx's handler, as well as Donnie Yen (which, granted, triples the coolness factor of the movie). I actually like that this was directed by DJ Caruso, whose past efforts Disturbia and Eagle Eye I enjoyed very much. However, January is not really the best place for mindless action, and I think the returns will reflect that.

I predict an OW of $17M, on its way to six Top 5, one or two PTA, and a total of $44M overall. This is more expensive than Split, which makes it less desirable at $14 (Ult)/$13 (BO). Pass on this one.




From director John Lee Hancock, who gained acclaim with A-list actors and great scripts recently for The Blind Side and Saving Mr. Banks, comes The Founder (Weinstin Co.) with a biopic of McDonalds founder Ray Kroc, no doubt ably played by Michael Keaton.

There is no doubt that Kroc's story is admirable, as he created maybe the most recognizable fast-food brand in human history, but ... is it a story people are going to flock to see? Can't they just sell DVDs of the movie with the purchase of a Happy Meal or something?

I'll just say it: don't pick this movie. It's only showing in 1,100 theaters, so for $6, you're wasting your time. It won't get any worthy numbers in any category (except perhaps User Rating, but... no), so ... moving on.




In short order:

The Resurrection of Gavin Stone (High Top Releasing) - This film about a washed-up former child star will boy in 887 theaters starting Friday. It stars no one I've heard of, from a director I don't know, in the winter season's one attempt to pull in the Jesus freaks. Pass.




The Red Turtle (Sony Classics) - This animated film, currently sporting a 7.7 Rating on IMDb and a whopping 91% score on RT, is completely dialogue-less, and looks like it could have come from the mind of Hiyao Miyazaki. It follows a nameless castaway as he spends time on a deserted island replete with turtles, crabs, and birds. But no volleyballs.

I don't know what the projected theater count is, but if it's manageable (like 20 and under), this could be a winner. January is not typically a month for picking PTA picks as it usually has to compete with Oscar holdovers like La La Land. Honestly, this one could be a surprise hit. For only $4, you could do far, far worse.




Staying Vertical (Strand) - If French films are your bag, you may want to slid this into your studio's eighth spot. In an exercise of life imitating art (or is it the other way around?), a filmmaker has to raise a child by himself while looking for inspiration for his next film. Don't know much more than that, unfortunately. It's gotten favorable reviews, and I'd bet $3.97 of my own money that Chien has seen it, so ask him of he thinks it's a good pick. (It's late, I'm tired, and my groin hurts, so lay off.)





Prediction:

Split, $22M
xXx: The Return of Xander Cage, $17M
Hidden Figures, $15M
La La Land, $13M
Sing, $10M


PTA: The Red Turtle, Split, La La Land, xXx, Hidden Figures


Well, that does it for me. While I'm laid up from my surgery, Six will take over next week movies about an aging ass-kicking zombie-hunter, a series of dogs, some real golddiggers, and a salesman.

Later!
Happy 60th birthday Jet Li! (4/26/23)

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W
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Re: The Glorious Return of Speare's Tips - The Films of 1/20

Post by W »

I think XXX may really surprise. It's basically a Fast and Furious Mini-Me and the trailer was pretty huge when it released. It's a lowest common denominator film that satiates the Fast crowd. I think at the very least it's $25/$75 M and maybe $35/$125.
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Re: The Glorious Return of Speare's Tips - The Films of 1/20

Post by Shrykespeare »

Celebrity Birthdays:

Steve Harvey turned 60 on 1/17
Leigh Whannell turned 40 on 1/17
Stacey Dash turns 50 on 1/20
Happy 60th birthday Jet Li! (4/26/23)

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Re: The Glorious Return of Speare's Tips - The Films of 1/20

Post by Chienfantome »

Haha, I did see "Staying Vertical", Shryke ;)

I personally don't think much of the film, and I can't really see it being really valuable in the game. Maybe it could get 1 or 2 PTA points, but nothing more.
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numbersix
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Re: The Glorious Return of Speare's Tips - The Films of 1/20

Post by numbersix »

Great, and Nico-esque grumpy, analysis Shrykester.

I initially though XXX would win the weekend but it's just not attracting that action audience like I thought it would. Split does seem like the winner.


1. Split, $23M
2. xXx: The Return of Xander Cage, $19M
3. Hidden Figures, $14M
4. La La Land, $11M
5. Sing, $8M


PTA: The Red Turtle, Split, La La Land, xXx, Toni Erdmann

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Re: The Glorious Return of Speare's Tips - The Films of 1/20

Post by Walleye413 »

Early returns on Split seem way above expected. I think it hits the high 20's, maybe 28 before the weekend is done. And it should hold strong with good word of mouth. 65 at least. xXx will be front loaded, but still might crack 20. But then it will drop like a stone.

Great to see a Shryke column. Be careful going under the knife. Make sure they don't take anything they're not supposed to.

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Re: The Glorious Return of Speare's Tips - The Films of 1/20

Post by undeadmonkey »

I'm really curious about Split, might even get my behind to a theater this weekend. XXX looks terrible, i can't believe he was actually killed off in one of the movies.

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Re: The Glorious Return of Speare's Tips - The Films of 1/20

Post by Shrykespeare »

Friday Estimates:

Split, $14.6M
xXx: The Return of Xander Cage, $7.1M
Hidden Figures, $4.4M
La La Land, $2.4M
Sing, $1.9M
Rogue One, $1.7M
Patriots Day, $1.6M
Monster Trucks, $1.4M


Weekend Projections:

Split, $38.5M (OMG)
xXx, $19.4M
Hidden Figures, $16.9M
Sing, $8.4M
La La Land, $8.2M
Monster Trucks, $6.4M
Rogue One, $6.3M
Patriots Day, $5.6M
Bye Bye Man, $3.6M
Sleepless, $3.4M


Wow. What a huge debut for Split.

This is the fourth largest debut for a Shyamalan movie. The three that topped it (Signs, The Village, The Last Airbender), all went blockbuster.
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Re: The Glorious Return of Speare's Tips - The Films of 1/20

Post by Shrykespeare »

Weekend Estimates:

Top 10:
5 points - Split, $40.2M
4 points - xXx: The Return of Xander Cage, $20M
3 points - Hidden Figures, $16.2M (this one is going blockbuster, people)
2 points - Sing, $9M
1 point - La La Land, $8.3M
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story, $7M ($512M and counting)
Monster Trucks, $7M
Patriots Day, $6M
The Founder, $3.8M
Sleepless, $3.7M


PTA:
5 points - Split
4 points - The Red Turtle
3 points - xXx: The Return of Xander Cage
2 points - Hidden Figures
1 point - Toni Erdmann
Happy 60th birthday Jet Li! (4/26/23)

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Re: The Glorious Return of Speare's Tips - The Films of 1/20

Post by Chienfantome »

Amazing Split.

As for Hidden Figures, when I drafted it, I would have been exstatic with this number for opening weekend, so the fact it can still collect that in its third wide weekend, it's remarkable. $100M are indeed assured, and in the end it will probably collect more money than the film I drafted in round 1, while I drafted Hidden in round 13 I think.
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Re: The Glorious Return of Speare's Tips - The Films of 1/20

Post by Ron Burgundy »

yeah Hidden Figures has been a bit of a revelation, i didnt see it coming thats for sure...

And split over 40m? Thats gotta be one of the highest opening in Jan, right? Lets see how it holds...hope its not gonna be a must have pick, cuz i didnt take it for me BO slate
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Re: The Glorious Return of Speare's Tips - The Films of 1/20

Post by Shrykespeare »

Split's $40M is the 4th-highest opening weekend for a January film. Ride Along and Kung Fu Panda 3 both cleared $41M, But the record, by a wide, wide, WIDE margin was American Sniper, which made $89M in its wide-release debut.
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Re: The Glorious Return of Speare's Tips - The Films of 1/20

Post by undeadmonkey »

I'm also surprised by those numbers and happy, maybe we can go back to having a M Night movie every other year again. As much as some of his movies are terrible I would much rather have an original M night movie every year than a superhero sequel every month.


on another note, has Vanessa Redgrave been in anything recently. I just saw Mission Impossible 1 for the first time and i thought she was fantastic in it.

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Re: The Glorious Return of Speare's Tips - The Films of 1/20

Post by numbersix »

She was really good in her few scenes in Foxcatcher.

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Re: The Glorious Return of Speare's Tips - The Films of 1/20

Post by Shrykespeare »

She played the Queen in Cars 2, and according to Wikipedia she has a new film coming out this year called Film Stars Don't Die in Liverpool.
Happy 60th birthday Jet Li! (4/26/23)

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