Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 1/13

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Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 1/13

Post by transformers2 »

The force was strong with Hidden Figures this past weekend as it surprisingly unseated Rogue One as the number one movie in the country. The inspiring docudrama grossed $22.8 mil in its wide expansion and if its rare A+ Cinemascore is any indication, it should play well through at least the rest of January.

In addition to the four new releases I'm going to talk about below, this weekend also sees Mark Wahlberg's Boston Marathon bombing film Patriots Day and Ben Affleck's period gangster vehicle Live by Night expanding wide after nearly three weeks in limited release. The two films have had completely different trajectories so far with Patriots Day performing pretty strongly in 7 theaters (it's grossed a little over $870,000 since opening on December 21st) and receiving mostly positive reviews (it currently sits at 80% on Rotten Tomatoes) while Live by Night has underwhelmed with both critics (34% on RT, which is shockingly low for an Affleck-helmed project) and NY/LA audiences (approximately $170,00 since its release on Christmas Day). Despite their vast differences in critical reception and limited release performance, they should perform more evenly on the national circuit. Given the star power involved and the appeal of their respective premises, I expect both of them to rake in somewhere between $20-30 million over the long weekend.

Wide Releases:

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The expansions of Patriots Day and Live by Night combined with the expected post Golden Globes-bump for La La Land are commanding all of the headlines going into weekend, but as far as I'm concerned, Monster Trucks (Paramount) is the true event film on the schedule. The film focuses on the gut-wrenching tale of the bond between a high-school boy (Lucas Till aka 21st century MacGyver) and the mysterious sea monster that takes up residence inside of his truck. Renowned thespians Rob Lowe, Danny Glover and Jane Levy co-star in this harrowing tale of full of love, loss and understanding the joys of watching nautical monsters frolic around in the grill of numerous obsolete pickup trucks. Paramount moved the release date for Monster Trucks three times before landing on this prime weekend in the middle of January (can you say full-year Oscar campaign !?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!), which speaks volumes for the respect they have for this latest classic from noted auteur Chris Wedge (Ice Age, Epic). Because American audiences lack the sophistication to appreciate true art, I sadly don't think Monster Trucks will make much of an impact at the box office. Heavy anticipation among rabid cinephiles in major cities might be able to get it past $30 mil, but I think an OW around $8 mil, zero top 5 or PTA points and a final gross of $20-23 mil is more realistic, which makes it a pretty weak pick in both formats.


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It's early January, which means it's time to pump out another entry in the beloved low-budget action/revenge thriller genre. 2017's entry into that beloved genre comes in the form of Sleepless (Open Road). Sleepless weaves the tale of possibly corrupt/possibly undercover Las Vegas cop Vincent Downs (Jamie Foxx). After him and his partner (T.I.) get caught stealing cocaine from a powerful drug kingpin (I think he's played by), the cartel punishes Downs by kidnapping his teenage son (Octavius Johnson). Full of remorse and rage, Downs goes into full Liam Nesson-mode and takes on all of the bad guys that stand between him and his son. Gabrielle Union and Michelle Monaghan co-star as the concerned mother/ex-wife of Downs and internal affairs brought in to go after Downs respectively. The box office prospects for Sleepless are kind of hard to gauge. On the one hand, it features a notable star in Jamie Foxx and an accessible premise that can do well in the right BO climate. On the other, you have a studio in Open Road that can't open a movie to save its life and the much better-promoted Live by Night cutting into its potential audience. Ultimately, I think the presence of Foxx will be enough to raise this slightly above Open Road's other recent action/crime failures (Triple 9, Sabotage, The Gunman), but a crowded marketplace and the backing of the weakest prominent studio in Hollywood will prevent it from being a modest success. I'm expecting a $7 mil opening, no top 5 or PTA points and a total gross around $17 mil. Even as cheap filler (it costs $7 in both formats), I wouldn't recommenced putting Sleepless on your slate.


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Continuing this weekend's theme of honoring time-honored January cinema traditions is the PG-13 rated supernatural horror flick The Bye Bye Man (STX Entertainment). This long-delayed flick focusing on the presence of a supernatural being that influences the actions of anyone that says his name or even thinks about him. Of course, a group of young co-eds aren't wise enough to follow that very simple mantra and soon find themselves under the murderous spell of this powerful deity. History has repeatably proven that even the biggest piles of shit the horror genre has to offer up can perform in January. The Forest and STX's own The Boy both quietly made between $25-35 mil just last year in a super crowded marketplace and long-forgotten films like The Rite, The Devil Inside and Legion have all found inexplicable success in the first month of the calendar year during this decade. With this in mind, there's no reason to think that The Bye Bye Man can't post similar numbers. There hasn't been a straight-up horror release since Ouija: Origin of Evil on October 21st (early December dump release Incarnate doesn't count) and the PG-13 rating will dupe groups of teenagers into seeing this probably god awful movie. I'm not expecting it to do crazy Devil Inside-esque numbers, but I think an opening in the low-to-mid teens and a final gross between $25-35 mil are well within reach, even with M. Night Shyamalan's Split hitting theaters next Friday. The abundance of wide releases currently out (it might be able to squeak out a single top 5/PTA point if Rogue One drops harder than expected or La La Land underachieves) make it a risky Ultimate pick, but at $5 or $6 in all available seasons, it has the potential to be a solid BO pick.


Limited Release
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With Oscar-bait ruling the limited release marketplace for the foreseeable future, there's only one limited release film on the docket for this week. Like any American film that's brave enough to hit the arthouse circuit two weeks into the calendar year, The Book of Love (Freestyle Releasing) is essentially on the Island of Misfit Toys. This film debuted at the Tribeca Film Festival last April to little-to-no fanfare and Freestyle responded accordingly by giving it the day-and-date theater/VOD dump release that every film desperately tries to avoid. Upon reading the plot summary and watching the trailer, it's understandable why The Book of Love was given this treatment. It looks like a poorly-made, overly sentimental yawnfest that appears to be nothing more than a low-budget version of a Nicolas Sparks tearjerker starring Jason Sudekis and Arya Stark. With no audience to speak of and a current 5.5 rating on IMDB, there's no reason to be tempted to put The Book of Love on your slate (unless you want to spend your last dollar or two honoring the triumphant returns of Jessica Biel and Orlando Jones to the silver screen).


WEEKEND PREDICTIONS
1.Patriots Day $23 mil ($27 mil 4-day)
2.Live by Night $18 mil ($21.5 mil 4-day)
3.Hidden Figures $16 mil ($19 mil 4-day)
4.La La Land $13 mil ($16 mil 4-day)
5.Rogue One $12 mil ($15 mil 4-day)

PTA: Patriots Day, Toni Erdmann, Hidden Figures, La La Land, The Bye Bye Man

Tune in next week as Shryke breaks down the aforementioned M. Night Shyamalan thriller Split, Vin Diesel's latest attempt to revive a long-dormant franchise from his past with xXx: The Return of Xander Cage, the long-awaited Ray Kroc biopic The Founder, critically-acclaimed French animated film The Red Turtle and a couple of other expendable somewhat wide/limited releases.
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numbersix
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 1/13

Post by numbersix »

Great write-up, Tranny. Do I detect a tiny bit of sarcasm in your analysis of Monster Trucks?

Man, what a clusterfuck of a weekend. 3 similar films all going wide, a horror, a terrible kids film, and two awards films expanding. I'm thinking (or hoping for my Draft game) Sleepless can do a bit better - maybe a $10m opening and $25m cume. But no good for this game. Hidden Figures should hold damn well, that's true, but I still haev faith that Patriots Day can do well. Live by Night, however, could actually bomb, given the reviews and lack of interest.

1.Patriots Day $24 mil ($27 mil 4-day)
2.Hidden Figures $16 mil ($19 mil 4-day)
3.Rogue One $12 mil ($14 mil 4-day)
4.La La Land $11 mil ($13 mil 4-day)
5.Live by Night $11 mil ($13 mil 4-day)

PTA: Patriots Day, Hidden Figures, Toni Erdmann, La La Land, Silence

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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 1/13

Post by undeadmonkey »

I think patriots day will surprise, 30+M. and i agree with Six, Live by Night will bomb.

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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 1/13

Post by Shrykespeare »

I hope I wasn't the only one laughing his ass off reading tranny's write up of Monster Trucks. Damn, dude, that was comic genius.
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 1/13

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Shrykespeare wrote:I hope I wasn't the only one laughing his ass off reading tranny's write up of Monster Trucks. Damn, dude, that was comic genius.
Appreciate it Shryke
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 1/13

Post by Chienfantome »

You were not the only one Shryke :D
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 1/13

Post by Shrykespeare »

Friday Estimates

Hidden Figures, $5.5M
Bye Bye Man, $5.4M
Patriots Day, $4.1M
La La Land, $4.1M
Rogue One, $3.2M
Sleepless, $3.0M
Sing, $2.9M
Monster Trucks, $2.6M
Live By Night, $1.9M
Underworld: BW, $1.7M
Passengers, $1.5M
Why Him?, $1.0M



Weekend Projections:

Hidden Figures, $18.9M
La La Land, $14M
Rogue One, $13.5M (just shy of $500M now)
Sing, $13M
Patriots Day, $12.7M
Bye Bye Man, $11.5M
Monster Trucks, $10.6M
Sleepless, $8.2M
Underworld: BW, $5.7M
Live By Night, $5.5M
Passengers, $5.3M
Happy 60th birthday Jet Li! (4/26/23)

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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 1/13

Post by numbersix »

Deadline are predicting a 14.5m 3-day weekend for Bye Bye Man but I think their maths are screwy, just because it had a great Friday (the 13th).

Anyway, look at how well La La Land is performing - an amazing ultimate pick.

Pity about Patriots Day, though.

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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 1/13

Post by undeadmonkey »

Live by Night and Patriots day bombed, interesting.

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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 1/13

Post by Shrykespeare »

Weekend Estimates

Top 10:
5 points - Hidden Figures, $20.4M
4 points - La La Land, $14.5M
3 points - Sing, $13.8M
2 points - Rogue One: A Star Wars Story, $13.8M
1 point - The Bye Bye Man, $13.4M
Patriots Day, $12.0M
Monsters Trucks, $10.5M
Sleepless, $8.5M
Underworld: Blood Wars, $5.8M
Passengers, $5.6M



PTA:
5 points - Toni Erdmann, $8,193
4 points - La La Land, $7,846
3 points - Hidden Figures, $6,223
2 points - The Bye Bye Man, $6,026
1 point - Sleepless, $4.697



Celebrity birthdays:

Orlando Bloom turned 40 on 1/13
Emily Watson turned 50 on 1/14
Happy 60th birthday Jet Li! (4/26/23)

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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 1/13

Post by Chienfantome »

Well, it wasn't worth fighting for Silence in the draft... (or for Live by Night on the WW...)
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 1/13

Post by transformers2 »

I really did a bang-up job of predicting how this weekend was going to shake out :lol: I'm honestly surprised to see how low Patriots Day and Live by Night opened.
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 1/13

Post by Shrykespeare »

Weekend Actuals

Top 10:
5 points - Hidden Figures, $20.9M
4 points - La La Land, $14.5M
3 points - Sing, $14.2M
2 points - The Bye Bye Man, $13.5M
1 point - Rogue One: A Star Wars Story, $13.5M
Patriots Day, $11.6M
Monster Trucks, $11.0M
Sleepless, $8.3M
Underworld: Blood Wars, $6.2M
Passengers, $5.3M
Live By Night, $5.1M



PTA:
5 points - La La Land, $7,864
4 points - Toni Erdmann, $7,420
3 points - Hidden Figures, $6,346
2 points - The Bye Bye Man, $6,082
1 point - Sleepless, $4,628
Happy 60th birthday Jet Li! (4/26/23)

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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 1/13

Post by Chienfantome »

That hold from Hidden Figures is amazing.
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