SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – XMAS BONANZA!!!

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SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – XMAS BONANZA!!!

Post by numbersix »

Merry Christmas! Whether it’s trying to herd your every-increasing pile of nieces and nephews (I’ve seen Tribbles pop up slower), being tasked with conversing with senile Aunt Dot, or simply being expected to have bought a meaningful present when all that was left in the stores was a pair of ironic Santa socks, there’s nothing that says the holiday season like being utterly burdened. And so too I am burdened. With 11 bloody films to analyse, opening across three different dates and in a variety of shapes, all the while trying to sound like I’m not pulling this info out of my ass. Dammit, I’m done pretending to know things, Happy Xmas, kids, here’s some assformation.

First up, the wide releases.



Didn’t we already get a space adventure last week? That won’t stop Sony from blasting Passengers at us. Despite both sci-fi’s focusing on strong female leads, there is one major difference – this one is a supposed romance. The plot involves two colonists aboard a space ship destined for a new home who are awakened 90 years too early, and must find a way to get back into hypersleep or else spend their rest of their lives in transit. Kinda like commuting to Manhattan.

There’s a lot going for this film. The romance aspect might give it enough of a distinction from Rogue One, making it the girl/wife’s choice while still giving the guy/husband his FX kicks. And it contains the two hottest actors of the moment, Jennifer Lawrence and Chris Pratt. However, the big problem is that unlike recent successful sci-fi’s like The Martian and Gravity, it’s getting slated by the critics. If it wasn’t for that I’d call this the big hit of the week. But instead, I suspect it’ll be a blockbuster with disappointing legs (unlike Miss Lawrence’s). So it should open well, roughly hitting the 50s across its 5 opening days, but its hold may not last, ending up with around $130m or so. That should net you about 8 T5 points, possibly 1 PTA point, and 6.0 IMDB score. That’s not great for its $22 or $21 price tag in Ultimate. Its $23 cost in BO is slightly safer, but you can get better bang-for-buck elsewhere.




And speaking of safer, next up is singalong animation Sing [Universal], a concept that sounds conjured up solely by marketing execs. I’ve no idea what the plot is, but it’s tied into the appeal of those godawful manufactured-pop-singing shows like The Voice. And it’s going to be a hit. Why? Because, as a co-worker once explained to me on his way to Alvin and the Chipmunks, when you’ve young kids you need any excuse to get out of that box of a house. Quality means nothing, right timing is everything. Plus, Sing is currently liked by critics more than Passengers. Who would have thunk it?

Universal has been heavily promoting this film, and despite Christmas animated fare (Tintin) not always working, this feels more like the first Alvin film rather than the fourth, and it’s the only flick that directly appeals to the youngest of audiences outside of Moana, which so far doesn’t seem to be a Frozen-size hit. Sing should make close to $60m from Weds-Sunday, and hold relatively well across the holidays, finishing up past the $150 mark, if not higher considering the lack of direct competition until February. That makes it worth its $21/$24 price in BO. Its value in Ultimate is trickier to figure out, but you should net at least 9 Top 5 points, maybe 1 PTA point, and a mid 6 IMDB score. After Rogue One and Lego Batman, this is probably your best high-priced pick.




Will there ever be a good video game adaptation? Assassin’s Creed [Fox] won’t be it, despite the casting of prestige actor Michael Fassbender and vision of arthouse director Justin Kurzel. It’s about a futuristic way in which a man can channel his ancestors and transport himself to the era of the Spanish Inquisition, mostly to knife people in the back before scampering up conveniently-placed ladders. Presumably the film doesn’t feature 50 hours of gruelling side missions to upgrade his stats.

There’s not a lot in terms of comparisons, but surely the film can fare better than 47 Ronin, which earned $38m. But with so much competition across the holidays and the poor reviews, this film only has the gamers and action fans to rely on, and will probably close with about $60m at the box office. That will be enough to give it around 2 or 3 T5 points, no PTA, and a middling IMDB score. Best avoid in Ultimate, and probably BO too.




“Why Me?” I asked when I realised I had to cover this weekend. But Why Him? [Fox] is the final wide release of the weekend. It’s a rude comedy about a father who has to endure his daughter’s lewd boyfriend. Think Daddy’s Home Meets the Parents. Bryan Cranston finally returns to comedy, while James Franco wanders into yet another set, for surely that’s the only reason he gets cast.

Snark aside, this has potential. With Bad Santa 2 and Office Christmas Party underperforming, perhaps this will be the R-Rated comic hit of the season. Last year saw Daddy’s Home surprise with $150m, and while Why Him doesn’t have the same kind of cast, or its PG-13 rating, it might attract a sizeable audience. Plus, it opens on a Friday rather than a Wednesday, which may help in terms of the Ultimate Game. At worst it’ll probably have similar stats to Assassin’s Creed (60m cume, 3 T5, 0 PTA, mid 6s IMDB), but could do a little better. Its Ultimate cost of $11 and $9 are risky, but you might be reaping the rewards if you spend $10 on it in BO.

Because the site might just explode, I’m going to end here and take on the (7!) limited films in my next post.

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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – XMAS BONANZA!!!

Post by numbersix »



Patriot’s Day [Lionsgate] is possibly the most transparently titled movie since Heaven is For Real. This movie definitely knows who it’s targeting, and you have to hand it to Lionsgate for attempting to cash in at the right time. The pic is about the Boston Marathon bombing that happened a few years back, and focuses on the police sergeant (played by Mark “Angry and Confused” Wahlberg) whose job is to find those behind it and bring them to justice.

Films like this don’t really need to open limited, and it’s doing so either for the initial buzz or for contention for the Oscars. In fact, this film reminds me of Lone Survivor in many ways (same lead, same director, similar release strategy, and similar target audience), and it should get a similar result. I’m predicting a $30m weekend when it goes wide on Jan 13th, and a $100m cume. That means around 10 PTA points, 8 T5 points, and a mid 7 IMDB score, making it a hell of an all-rounder. Prices in Ult are $15, and in BO are $14 and $16, and I’d scoop it up instantly.




Leading an open fight against Patriot’s Day is Live by Night [Warner Bros], a film that’s targeting a similar audience with a very similar release pattern. This one is Ben Affleck’s latest, after his Oscar-winning Argo (fuck yourself). Affleck is also in front of the screen as a notorious Prohibition Era bootlegger. It’s a shame this is going up against Patriot’s Day as otherwise it would have a lot going for it. It’s also getting released on Christmas Day, so only has Sunday’s BO to count in this competitive weekend. Still, it’ll probably get PTA points next week and the following, and play second fiddle on its Jan 13th expansion. For Ultimate, you’re paying $9 or $12 for 6 PTA points, 6 T5 points, and probably a strong IMDB score, which is pretty good for a low cost pick. You’ll probably see the film earn $75m, which could be worth the $12 or $9 it strangely costs in BO.




And if you thought too many cooks are spoiling the BO broth, along comes Silence [Paramount], Martin Scorsese’s latest epic. This film deals with Portuguese missionaries trying to find one of their own in feudal Japan. Like Gangs of New York it’s been a passion project of the iconic director. Reviews have been strong, although it looks like one of his more contemplative pics as opposed to hits like Shutter Island or The Depaaaahted. Opening limited on Friday, I expect this will top the PTA chart due to the Scorsese’s name and the cast (Andrew Garfield, Adam Driver, Liam Neeson). However, I’m not convinced it will play as well when it opens wide, and instead you’ll end up with 12 PTA points but only 2 or 3 Top 5 points, and a high 7 IMDB. Who knows what’ll it’ll ultimately earn, but it’s probably going to be under $50m. It’s not a bad Ultimate pick ($11 or $10), but probably not worth the $12 or $9 in BO.



Bet you think that’s enough for limited release with planned expansions. But no, there’s still Hidden Figures [Fox], another Oscar-baity attempt to cash in on the #OscarsSoWhite issue. It deals with the African-American women who were crucial to NASA first space programmes. Its cast include Taraji Henson, Octavia Spencer, and singer Janelle Monae, along with support from Jim Parsons and Kevin Costner. While initial testing of the film was strong, there is a lot of competition out there, and not even Disney could make Queen of Katwe impactful in any way. Some potential Oscar noms could help. Unfortunately it’s opening on Sunday, and on 25 theatres it’s unlikely to compete with the other prestige titles. It expands on Jan 6th so could earn a handful of T5 points. Nevertheless, its $8 and $7 pricetags may be a smidgin too high, but a film opening this wide is a steal in BO for $3.




On the even-more limited side, Julieta [Sony Classics] is Spanish auteur Pedro Almodovar’s latest film, another Hitchcockian exploration of female familial bonds. The film received strong reviews, much better than previous flick I’m So Excited which opened with a $19K average, and so we can expect this to make around Almodovar’s average, $37K. That will make it a player this weekend and possibly next, earning it around 5 PTA points while maintaining its IMDB score in the low 7s. That’s not bad for $4.




On another weekend, A Monster Calls [Focus Features] would be a great pick, being an arthouse fantasy flick directed by JA Bayona (The Impossible) and featuring Oscar nominees Felicity Jones and Sigourney Weaver. But it’s up against so much, and probably will expand too quickly to beat the bigger films or the smaller films, and may only nab a single PTA point. Even with its decent IMDB score (7.7) it’s not worth its $5 or $4, and possibly not its $4/$3 in BO despite the plan to open wide-ish on Jan 6th.




And finally (FINALLY) we come to Toni Erdmann [Sony Classics], a nearly 3-hour German comedy-drama with no real stars, about a workaholic woman whose jokester father turns up in different guises to show her how to enjoy life. Not exactly a promising proposition. Yet it could be well worth your consideration. It went down a storm at Cannes, has won many other awards (including the Big 4 at the European Film Awards), and is favourite to win the Foreign Language Oscar. It’s the kind of film that will expand very slowly, not earning any PTA points this weekend (it opens on Sunday) but nabbing one or two consistently across multiple weeks, like Son of Saul, The Salesman, and Two Days One Night did. So I see this making about 6 PTA points and keeping its IMDB score in the low 8s. It’s not only worth its Ultimate price of $4, but it’s also my favourite film of the year, so go check it out.


My predictions for the weekend

1. Star Wars: Rogue One - $74m
2. Sing - $42m ($55m 5-day)
3. Passengers - $38m ($50m 5-day)
4. Assassin’s Creed - $13m ($18m 5-day)
5. Why Him - $10m

PTA: Silence, Patriot’s Day, Julieta, Star Wars Rogue One, La La Land


WHHHHHEEWWWWWW. I need a rest. And some turkey and stuffing. Santa’s giving us all a week off next week, and then 2017 will start with a whimper as Walleye provides more great insight, taking on Underworld: Blood Wars and Cannes winner I, Daniel Blake.

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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – XMAS BONANZA!!!

Post by Chienfantome »

What a brave column given the number of films to chronicle :lol:

There are definitely wayyyyyyy too many films opening this week. So much potential from all of them, but with such fierce competition, it's complicated.
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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – XMAS BONANZA!!!

Post by transformers2 »

I don't mean to a be dickhead six, but the film is called Patriots Day because that's the name of the holiday that the bombing happened on(it's only a holiday in Massachusetts and Maine, so there's no reason you would know that.) Obviously you can tie the title to the inevitable patriotism that the film is going to be filled with, but I'm positive that wasn't the primary reason Lionsgate and Peter Berg settled on that name.

On a more relevant note, I don't think its going to come anywhere near $100 mil. A majority of people around here are bullshit that Hollywood had the gall to make a movie about the bombing just 3 and a half years after it happened and I don't think the conservative whackjob crowd is going to have the same enthusiasm for this as they do for every military movie. I'm thinking Hacksaw Ridge ($60 mil)-type numbers at best, but I'm thinking it's more likely to make around $40-45 mil and get outgrossed by Live by Night by at least $20 mil.
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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – XMAS BONANZA!!!

Post by Brockster »

after his Oscar-winning Argo (fuck yourself)
best part of the post, IMO :D

So many movies this week, I can't believe it. And many of them look good to me. For selfish reasons I'm rooting for Patriots Day and A Monster Calls (have both of them in my draft).

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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – XMAS BONANZA!!!

Post by Walleye413 »

Dang, great write up my friend. What a rough week to try and predict too. I thought Passengers would be a hit, but the reviews have been savage. Personally I'm hoping for great things from Hidden Figures and Live By Night - and both those movies interest me as well, so I'll hopefully get to them soon enough. In the mean time, once more to Rogue One!

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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – XMAS BONANZA!!!

Post by undeadmonkey »

i dare anyone to go see all these movies this weekend. I would like to see all of them, except for patriots day or live by night.

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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – XMAS BONANZA!!!

Post by Ron Burgundy »

awesome article six, big props to ya. Tongue firmly stuck in cheeck, personally besides what walleye said, my favorite paaaaarts were:

'police sergeant (played by Mark “Angry and Confused” Wahlberg)'

and

'The Depaaaahted'

also, i think you got it your predictions almost bang on, though with the star power in Passengers i dont think critics will sway the film to go under. I still think its got much more potential- the leads are wayyyy tooo 'so hot right now' to disappoint.

Ill have a stab on the numbers too

1. Star Wars - $71m
2. Passengers - $44m
3. Sing - $39m
4. Assasins Creed - $14m
5. Why Him - $12m

Toni Erdmann i think will be a steal and nab a couple points ahead of La La land which will expand again, and i agree with you on the bargain price of Patriots Day, the similarities to Lone Survivor are too coincidental. No handle on Julieta though.

Merry Christmas six, and thanks very very much for writing this piece

-and UDM, no bloody way will anyone do such a thing apart from our very own ghostdog ;) (if he had the chance)
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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – XMAS BONANZA!!!

Post by Chienfantome »

Haha, I definitely would Ron, indeed :lol:
I've already seen Toni Erdmann and Julieta, but Assassins Creed is the only one getting released This week in Paris too. Passengers is Next week, and the others later, if not Much later unfortunately
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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – XMAS BONANZA!!!

Post by Ron Burgundy »

what did u think of Arrival Chien? Ive been thinking about that film alot since watching it...
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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – XMAS BONANZA!!!

Post by undeadmonkey »

I think Rouge One will fall a bit harder than that, Christmas Day falling on the weekend wont help.

I really can't say about Passengers. I think it wont do well, we've seen time and again, throw the two biggest stars of the moment into a movie and usually the biggest flop of the year; The Mexican, the Tourist. The reviews have been horrendous and while not helpful, the biggest mistake has been the marketing. Nobody knows what genre the movie is supposed to be and plastering Lawrence and Pratt over everything isn't enough to cover up that glaring issue.

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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – XMAS BONANZA!!!

Post by Chienfantome »

Ron Burgundy wrote:what did u think of Arrival Chien? Ive been thinking about that film alot since watching it...
I'm in love with Arrival. Made me cry like I hadn't cried since Naomi Kawase's An at the beginning of the year. It's like Terrence Malick remade Encounters of the Third Kind. Fascinating film.
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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – XMAS BONANZA!!!

Post by numbersix »

transformers2 wrote:I don't mean to a be dickhead six, but the film is called Patriots Day because that's the name of the holiday that the bombing happened on(it's only a holiday in Massachusetts and Maine, so there's no reason you would know that.) Obviously you can tie the title to the inevitable patriotism that the film is going to be filled with, but I'm positive that wasn't the primary reason Lionsgate and Peter Berg settled on that name.

On a more relevant note, I don't think its going to come anywhere near $100 mil. A majority of people around here are bullshit that Hollywood had the gall to make a movie about the bombing just 3 and a half years after it happened and I don't think the conservative whackjob crowd is going to have the same enthusiasm for this as they do for every military movie. I'm thinking Hacksaw Ridge ($60 mil)-type numbers at best, but I'm thinking it's more likely to make around $40-45 mil and get outgrossed by Live by Night by at least $20 mil.
Haha, I'll qualify my position, regardless of its proximity to what happened, it's gonna use intense anti-hardcord Muslim content to make it a big action film, and it's gonna work. Hacksaw Ridge doesn't have the same cast, so it should double that alone.

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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – XMAS BONANZA!!!

Post by Shrykespeare »

Great stuff, Six. You brought some laughter into my otherwise shitty day.


Birthdays this week:

Kiefer Sutherland turns 50 on 12/21
Kaitlyn Dever turns 20 on 12/21
Hector Elizondo turns 80 on 12/22
Susan Lucci turns 70 on 12/23
Diedrich Bader turns 50 on 12/24




Theater counts:

Sing - 4,022
Passengers - 3,478
Assassin's Creed - 2,902
Why Him? - 2,800
Hidden Figures - 25
Patriots Day - 7
Silence - 4
A Monster Calls - 4
Live By Night - 4
Happy 60th birthday Jet Li! (4/26/23)

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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – XMAS BONANZA!!!

Post by Shrykespeare »

Wednesday Estimates

Rogue One, $15M
Sing, $11M
Assassin's Creed, $4.6M
Passengers, $4.1M
Moana, $2.1M
OCP, $1.2M
Happy 60th birthday Jet Li! (4/26/23)

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