Walleye's Weekly Winners: The Films of 12/16

Mr. Columnist himself presents weekly analysis and tips.

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Walleye413
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Walleye's Weekly Winners: The Films of 12/16

Post by Walleye413 »

Yep – so quick review. Moana: Still amazing. Office Christmas Party: Kind of amazing. Will its legs be as nice as Jennifer Aniston’s? Beasts: Still amazing. La La Land: Hello – amazing!

Now – onto the good stuff.

Guys – Star Wars: Rogue One comes out this weekend! Full disclosure: I’m one of those you might call a Star Wars fanatic. Grew up on the original three, and my boys loved the prequels and all things Star Wars during their younger years (they have since wisely been able to discern the good from the bad when it comes to that.) I own and wear several Star Wars onesies, I have Lego Star Wars all over my office, and my Church bought out a full showing of both The Force Awakens and Rogue One so we can all go watch the show together on opening night. And I can do that since I’m the Pastor ☺. So this may be the most-biased column of the year.
With that in mind: Rogue One appears to have a lot going on for it that most other movies, let alone some other Star Wars movies, do not. To begin – this is the first stand alone Star Wars movie to be tried – and they picked a great story. By choosing the small section of Star Wars lore dealing with the theft of the Death Star plans they both tap into something that fanboys/girls have wanted for year – and yet casual fans still can jump into the adventure without missing too much of the background as well. They have a host of new characters they can introduce, and put in peril, without risking the franchise. They’re able to emphasize the “wars” part of the title in a way they haven’t really done before. And they’ve got an audience that loved Force Awakens – but is now ready for more/something better.
Early notes about trouble with tone etc. seem to be par for the course. What, reshoots, you say? Why that’s the death of all blockbusters (see. Titanic, Return of the King, WWZ) And early reviews are good to great, although this is a movie where reviews won’t matter too much. It can’t possibly do as well as Force Awakens which earned 936 million dollars! and won all leagues last year. That type of cultural zeitgeist happens once in a blue moon (although those blue moons, seem to happen more often it would appear; see: Titanic, Avatar, Jurassic World. And see Avatar: the Last Airbender for a good laugh) Rogue One will be the biggest movie of the season. But is it worth adding to your slates?
I’m going to say yes. I think it opens to $130-150 million and earns 450 million plus by the end of its run, eventually beating out Finding Dory for the biggest fish in the 2016 sea. No other movie this season will come close to that over the next few months, and the box office and Top 5 points alone can prop up even the worst of slates – and save the season for the lucky few who got it in the year-long draft. Star Wars is back, baby! And if you want tickets we’ve still got a few left!

There are a few other movies trying the old Counter-programming route. The highest profile one is Collateral Beauty starring Will Smith, and then a who’s who of supporting actors. The plot is being kept under wraps, so best guess – this seems like a different take on A Christmas Carol, with Will not a Scrooge as much as he’s a broken soul in desperate need of hope and a reason to live/care after the death of his child. I think it’s a pretty good premise which will hit well with the many folks who find this season more depressing than joyful. Watching the previews, my guess is that Helen Mirren, Keira Knightley, and Jacob Latimore aren’t really “ghosts” but actors hired by Will’s friends to try and help him out. If in fact that’s a spoiler, then sorry – but kudos to me for guessing correctly.
There was probably room for one holiday themed breakout this month, and I thought Office Christmas Party would be it. Shows you what I know. And I thought Collateral Beauty would break a little bigger than that. If it does end with a more uplifting ending, not always a guarantee with Mr. Smith, I would say America is looking for more of that in the world right now – especially on the coasts. But then the reviews came out. Savage! Thus, Collateral Beauty will open to (not quite) 15 million, a still impressive number under the weight of the Death Star, and get to 55 million when all is said and done. Not a bad pick, but not a great one either. It’ll only get 4 Top 5 points and 1 or 2 PTA however, as the new releases next weekend will push it out of consideration there.

Can a PTA darling break out under the onslaught of the Empire? Maybe – and three films are going to give it their all. The strongest candidate is Fences – a powerful Broadway play directed for the big screen by star Denzel Washington. Fences is an actor’s movie – and not just in the scenery chewing kind, but one where there’s depth, joy, and heartbreak. Fences will almost certainly get 2nd place on the PTA front, as well as several Oscar nominations and a win for Viola Davis in the Supporting Actress category. After that, it’s hard to say. Fences will go wide on Christmas and might make a little noise in terms of Box Office, but probably won’t crack the Top 5. It’s a great movie with a lot going for it. Hard to pick which of the many Oscar contenders will do best, but this one sure seems to rise to the top. If you missed La La Land, consider swinging for the Fences.

Neruda is the first of our foreign language entries this week – and a very intriguing one. Neruda will be the Chilean pick for the Oscars this year, and it already picked up a Golden Globe nod as well. That should help it get a few more butts in the seats this weekend at an undetermined number of screens. That’s the challenge here. You’ve got Gael Garcia Bernal, who is fantastic in just about everything. Luis Gnecco as Pablo Neruda, the Chilean poet on whom the movies is based. If you love South American cinema you will be on he hunt for this movie and be glad that you did. It won’t cost much in the game, but it won’t return much either. If you’re picking Neruda it’s because you love poetry, a good Chilean Malbec, or had room for nothing else on your slate. Hopefully it’s the first two.

Finally we have The Wasted Times, a Chinese film starring Ziyi Zhang (now 16 years removed from Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon.) As my Chinese is pretty limited I can’t tell you much about this film: so based on the title it’s either about smoking dope after school, or feeling regrets on a life poorly lived in an oppressive society. Could go either way. Again this one is all about audience and theatre count. If International money counted in our leagues this might be a solid pick, but as it stands, Neruda or Fences are clearly the better choices.

And that’s it for this week. Manchester by the Sea is getting a wider release this week which may shake up the Top 5 a bit. But everyone will be looking up to the Stars this week. And the next, and the next, and the next.

Top 5
Star Wars: Rogue One - $143 million
Collateral Beauty – 14.8 million
Moana – 14 million
Fantastic Beasts – 8 million
Manchester – 5 million

PTA
Rogue One
Fences
Neruda
Collateral Beauty
The Wasted Times


Starting next week there are about 27 films coming out in limited or wide release including an animated Voice rip-off, a Video game rip-off, and the two biggest movie stars in the world in a Blue Lagoon rip-off. I, for one, am most excited about the last one!

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numbersix
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Re: Walleye's Weekly Winners: The Films of 12/16

Post by numbersix »

Good article, Walleye. I agree with you on Star Wars - 150m opening and around 500m cume feels about right.

However, even if Rogue One wasn't playing this week, my expectations on Collateral would still be much lower. Will Smith isn't the draw he used to be, and the poor reviews are going to kill it, as older audiences rely on them more than younger. I don't see it making it past 10m this weekend.

And no room for La La Land in your PTA? Think even in 200 theatres it's going to duke it out with Star Wars. But Fences should be the real winner of this weekend.

Top 5
Star Wars: Rogue One - $152 million
Collateral Beauty – 9.8 million
Moana – 9.5 million
Office Xmas Party - 8 million
Fantastic Beasts – 6 million


PTA: Fences, La La Land, Rogue One, Neruda, Jackie

Note - If Neruda and Jackie both earn PTA points would that make it the first time a director has earned PTA in one weekend with 2 different films?

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undeadmonkey
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Re: Walleye's Weekly Winners: The Films of 12/16

Post by undeadmonkey »

Nice article!

it's weird, the trailers have not sold me on Rogue One. but with this being the type of movie that everyone talks about, you gotta go see it just so your not missing out.

Just guessing so it's not spoilers and i will fully admit that i could be way off, but i felt the first cut of Rogue One had everyone dying in the end, and I bet that is what the reshoots addressed, to change the ending. This is Disney afterall.


Also agree with Collateral, it looks terrible, wonder what or who Jada is going to blame this year for Will Smith not getting an oscar nom?

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Walleye413
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Re: Walleye's Weekly Winners: The Films of 12/16

Post by Walleye413 »

You know I always forget about the PTA holdovers. And I'm never sure how many screens they'll be on either. But you're right, La La Land will still be huge this week, no matter how many screens that's on. Rogue One predictions are all over the map. I'm beginning to think 175 million might be in play.

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Re: Walleye's Weekly Winners: The Films of 12/16

Post by Shrykespeare »

Official Theater Counts:

Rogue One: A Star Wars Story - 4,157
Collateral Beauty - 3,028



Next week:

Sing - 4,000
Passengers - 3,300
Assassin's Creed - 3,000
Why Him? - 2,800

Hidden Figures - 25
Patriots Day - 7
Silence - 4
Live By Night - 4
A Monster Calls - 4




Celebrity Milestone Birthdays:

Patty Duke turned 70 on 12/14
Eugene Levy turns 70 on 12/17
Steven Spielberg turns 70 on 12/18
Ron White turns 60 on 12/18
Happy 60th birthday Jet Li! (4/26/23)

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Re: Walleye's Weekly Winners: The Films of 12/16

Post by Shrykespeare »

Friday estimates:

Rogue One, $71.1M
Moana, $3.0M
Office Christmas Party, $2.6M
Collateral Beauty, $2.4M
Fantastic Beasts, $1.4M
La La Land, $1.4M
Manchester by the Sea, $1.3M



Weekend Projections:

Rogue One, $155M
Moana, $13.5M
Office Christmas Party, $8.9M
Collateral Beauty, $6.9M
Fantastic Beasts, $5.1M
La La Land, $4.4M
Manchester by the Sea, $4.3M
Arrival, $3M
Doctor Strange, $2.2M
Trolls, $1.4M
Nocturnal Animals, $1.3M


PTA:
Rogue One, $37K (4,157 theaters)
Fences, $31K (4 theaters)
La La Land, $22K (200 theaters)
Jackie, $6.5K (84 theaters)
Lion, $6.2K (16 theaters)
Happy 60th birthday Jet Li! (4/26/23)

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Re: Walleye's Weekly Winners: The Films of 12/16

Post by Shrykespeare »

Weekend Estimates

Top 10:
5 points - Rogue One: A Star Wars Story, $155M
4 points - Moana, $11.7M
3 points - Office Christmas Party, $8.4M
2 points - Collateral Beauty, $7M
1 point - Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them, $5M
Manchester by the Sea, $4.2M
La la Land, $4M
Arrival, $2.8M
Doctor Strange, $2M
Nocturnal Animals, $1.4M


PTA:
5 points - Rogue One: A Star Wars Story, $37.2K
4 points - Fences, $32K
3 points - La La Land, $20.1K
2 points - Neruda, $9.4K
1 point - Lion, $8.1K

Jackie finished 6th, The Wasted Times 7th.
Happy 60th birthday Jet Li! (4/26/23)

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Re: Walleye's Weekly Winners: The Films of 12/16

Post by Shrykespeare »

Weekend Actuals

Top 10:
5 points - Rogue One: A Star Wars Story, $155.1M
4 points - Moana, $12.7M
3 points - Office Christmas Party, $8.6M
2 points - Collateral Beauty, $7.1M
1 point - Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them, $5.1M
Manchester by the Sea, $4.2M
La la Land, $4.1M
Arrival, $3.0M
Doctor Strange, $2.2M
Nocturnal Animals, $1.4M


PTA:
5 points - Rogue One: A Star Wars Story, $37,309
4 points - Fences, $32,366
3 points - La La Land, $20,510
2 points - Neruda, $9,801
1 point - Lion, $8,282

Jackie finished 6th ($6,829), The Wasted Times 7th ($4,776).
Happy 60th birthday Jet Li! (4/26/23)

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