SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE - FILMS OF 12/09

[numbersix]

After a week of virtually non-existent film releases, it’s time to bounce back with some serious contenders. Well, just two. But with a whole heap of movies coming out over the Christmas period, will these modest pics be worth your bucks?




Tis the season. Not just for the God of Consumerism, but for festival fare like Office Christmas Party [Paramount]. In it, an office manager tries to rescue his failing branch by impressing clients with a big bash, only for it to go out of hand. In a way, it’s surprising a film centred on the disaster –in-the-making event hasn’t been made before. You’ve all been at them, and probably called your boss a c**t and photocopied your ass as well, so the film has the ability to connect. The cast is pretty strong, including familiar faces like Jennifer Aniston and Jason Bateman as well as relative newcomers like TJ Miller and Kate McKinnon. Comparisons range from Anchorman 2 ($125m) and Sisters (87m), although this film doesn’t have the former’s fanbase or the latter’s sensible counter-programming nature. However, with Bad Santa 2 bombing bad and Why Me being a wild card, this could be the comedy of the season.

Some are bullish and expecting a $30m opening, due to being the only wide release. However, it’s rare to see films that open before Christmas reach that high. Instead, it should open in the low 20s and hold well over the festive season, hitting the 80s. That should get you a minimum of 8 T5 points, a PTA point or two, and a so-so IMDB score. Prices vary from 11-13 in Ultimate, which makes it a safe but not overwhelmingly obvious choice. In BO the price is either $13, $10, or $11 and that will get you a pretty good 7:1 return. It’s certainly worth considering as a reasonably safe addition.




Is there any doubt that La La Land [Lionsgate/Summit] won’t win the Oscar next year? With the #OscarsSoWhite movement crumbling (Fences and Moonlight are the only awards hopefuls from that movement), it looks like we’re back to the Hollywood-referencing status quo. Damien Chazelle’s follow up to the indie hit Whiplash is a more ambitious throw-back to Golden Era musicals, relying on style and music to tell the story about a jazz pianist and an aspiring actress falling for each other in LA. The buzz has been extraordinary since the film played in Venice, Telluride, and Toronto, receiving rave reviews and all sorts of awards. And it’s only just beginning its run of statue-hoovering. Chazelle is favourite to win Best Director and you could see it hitch its skirt, grab its man, and sweep every award it blows past.

But is it worth it? Oscar winners aren’t always must-have picks for this game, often because they open limited and very slowly expand. The Artist picked up 14 PTA points but no Top 5 and made under $45m. Spotlight earned as much, though only amassed 11 PTA points. And what’s worse is La La Land will be overwhelmed by films like Patriots Day, Silence, and Live by Night opening limited over Christmas. However, this film is arguably more accessible than 12 Years a Slave, Spotlight and even Birdman. As a musical, it probably won’t hit the height of Chicago or Dreamgirls, but should do more than The Artist. I’m going to say it ends up with $75m in the end, and should be good for at least 10 PTA points, possibly 1 T5 point (in Jan sometime), and an IMDB score in the 8s. That makes it worthwhile in Ultimate, even if it will cost you up to $10, but even more profitable in BO, where it’s $7 (and $4 in the October-December leagues, although that’s a riskier prospect). Don’t miss out on a film with such massive potential, or you’ll be dancing the Charleston all the way to the bottom of the league.

Did I forget about Sugar Mountain [Screen Media]? Yep, and so should you.

My predictions for the weekend

1. Office Christmas Party - $21M
2. Moana - $17m
3. Fantastic Beasts - $9m
4. Arrival - $4
5. Allied - $3.5

PTA: La La Land, Jackie, Lion, Office Christmas Party, Manchester by the Sea


Next week Walleye is going to check out some tiny film called Star Wars: Rogue One. I assume it’s about Regan’s ridiculous plans to waste taxpayers money by building lazers in space during the 80s. Presumably Matthew Broderick and Steve Guttenberg feature. Oh, and a Will Smith film called Collateral (hope it’s not a reference to Will using his house to finance the flick, otherwise he’s gonna be homeless), Chilean drama Neruda, and Denzel Washington’s Oscar contender Fences.

[Shrykespeare]

Fences moved too? Ah okay. So your Christmas weekend lineup is down to eleven. Who's the next to vacate?



Celebrity Milestone Birthdays:

Amy Acker turned 40 on 12/5
Stefanie Scott turned 20 on 12/6
C. Thomas Howell turned 50 on 12/7
Dominic Monaghan turns 40 on 12/8
Kirk Douglas turns 100 on 12/9
Hailee Steinfeld turns 20 on 12/11

[numbersix]

Wow, Kirk Douglas is 100 tomorrow?

[Ron Burgundy]

solid predictions six. I have a gut feeling Office Christmas Party will explode and hit $100m- though im biased being a T.J Miller fan

Kirk Douglas Happy Birthday mate! 100 years old! Amazing

I love Spartcus, and right now at 4:44am im watching Gladiator, as a kind strange of homage to the sands and swords. Gladiators, i salute you!
That said, im beat, goodnight fellas

[undeadmonkey]

strangely i want to see both releases this weekend, that hasnt happened in a long time. has anyone seen either? any good?

[Shrykespeare]

Friday Estimates:

Office Christmas Party, $6.6M
Moana, $4.2M
Fantastic Beasts, $2.8M
Arrival, $1.6M
Doctor Strange, $1.2M
Allied, $1.2M
Nocturnal Animals, $1.1M



Weekend Projections:

Moana, $19.5M
Office Christmas Party, $17M
Fantastic Beasts, $10.5M
Arrival, $5.6M
Doctor Strange, $4.5M
Allied, $4M
Nocturnal Animals, $3.9M
Trolls, $2.9M
Hacksaw Ridge, $2.3M
Miss Sloane, $1.9M


PTA:

La La Land, $190K
Jackie, $18K
Manchester, $8.7K
Office Christmas Party, $5.3K
Moana, $5K

[W]

Those first two PTAs are wrong. La La Land is in 5 theaters so it's 1/5 that total. Deadline is reporting $850k total weekend for $170k PTA. Otherwise it'd be close to a $5m weekend.

And it looks like Jackie is $17-18 k and the number you have is the two week cume. It really doesn't change anything, though.

[numbersix]

Wow, look at La La Land's PTA - looking at 170K. That will mean it'll be in the PTA Top 10 of all time!

[Ron Burgundy]

pretty underwhelming t5 numbers

[Shrykespeare]

My bad. PTA numbers corrected.

[Shrykespeare]

Weekend Estimates

Top 10:
5 points - Moana, $18.8M
4 points - Office Christmas Party, $17.5M
3 points - Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them, $10.8M
2 points - Arrival, $5.6M
1 point - Doctor Strange, $4.6M
Allied, $4.0M
Nocturnal Animals, $3.19M
Manchester by the Sea, $3.16M
Trolls, $3.11M
Hacksaw Ridge, $2.3M



PTA:
5 points - La La Land, $171K
4 points - Jackie, $19K
3 points - Lion, $11.4K
2 points - Manchester by the Sea, $8.6K
1 point - Office Christmas Party, $5.4K

[Shrykespeare]

Weekend Actuals

Top 10:
5 points - Moana, $18.5M
4 points - Office Christmas Party, $16.9M
3 points - Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them, $10.4M
2 points - Arrival, $5.6M
1 point - Doctor Strange, $4.5M
Allied, $4.0M
Nocturnal Animals, $3.16M
Manchester by the Sea, $3.13M
Trolls, $3.02M
Hacksaw Ridge, $2.3M



PTA:
5 points - La La Land, $176,221
4 points - Jackie, $18,933
3 points - Lion, $11,224
2 points - Manchester by the Sea, $8,556
1 point - Office Christmas Party, $5,262