Look! An Undead Movie Column
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- undeadmonkey
- Leon
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Look! An Undead Movie Column
Doctor Strange held on to the top spot over the weekend. It's second weekend drop being the 2nd best of the last ten marvel movies (according to BOM). Trolls also had a great hold. It looks terrible so maybe it's a sign of the family crowd being underserved in the marketplace. Of the newcomers, Arrival gave it a good shot beating most expectations to become Villeneuve's best opening yet. Almost Christmas also did better than expected. IMDb tells me that a movie called Shut In opened over the weekend as well. Poor Naomi Watts, where did she go wrong? Lastly, on the PTA front, Ang Lee's Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk opened with a PTA of $57,065, good but nothing outstanding. It was 3rd best of any limited release this year, so take it as you like. However, with the dismal Rotten Tomatoes score Lee's and Sony's Oscar hope have mostly been dashed.
You seem familiar, have I threatened you before?
Coming up first, we have Fantastic Beasts and Where To Find Them (Warner Bros). Otherwise known as 'Warner Bros really hopes we all care about a Harry Potter movie without Harry Potter in it'. Don't get me wrong, it's been 5 years since we left Harry, Hermoine, Ron and their children on King’s Cross Station and I would love to see another adventure. However, i can't help but detect a hint of desperation in the advertising and maybe even in the movie itself, chiefly with the announcements of 5 films being greenlit, the casting of Grindlewald, hints of Dumbledore showing up, and the cast just seems lackluster. That being said, the movie should still open in the $70M-$80M range and if the reviews stay favorable, i can see the opening inching a bit higher.
Not all treasure’s silver and gold, mate, but in this case I do think that is what Warner Bros is gunning for.
Storyline
The year is 1926 and Newt Scamander has just completed a global excursion to find and document an extraordinary array of magical creatures. Arriving in New York for a brief stopover, he might have come and gone without incident...were it not for a No-Maj (American for Muggle) named Jacob, a misplaced magical case, and the escape of some of Newt's fantastic beasts, which could spell trouble for both the wizarding and No-Maj worlds.
I’ll predict a $80M OW and $250M overall.
Close your eyes and pretend all a bad dream. That’s how I get by.
Next we have Edge of Seventeen (STX Entertainment). An R rated teen comedy from STX entertainment, it looks like a nonstarter, but maybe it's clever counter-programming. STX had a decent hit on their hands with Bad Moms in the summer. While, my Full Year slate is hoping for that answer, my gut says it's not summer and Hailee Steinfeld is no Mila Kunis. Though if she keeps picking up small parts in bigger movies, ala Pitch Perfect, maybe someday she can be Mila Kunis famous or even more if she plays her cards right...
Why is all the rum gone? maybe that's the only way to get through this movie, or the reason you have this on your slate....
Storyline
Everyone knows that growing up is hard, and life is no easier for high school junior Nadine (Hailee Steinfeld), who is already at peak awkwardness when her all-star older brother Darian (Blake Jenner) starts dating her best friend Krista (Haley Lu Richardson). All at once, Nadine feels more alone than ever, until the unexpected friendship of a thoughtful boy (Hayden Szeto) gives her a glimmer of hope that things just might not be so terrible after all.
I predict an opening of $8M with a total of $30M.
My tremendous intuitive sense of the female creature informs me that you are in trouble.
Also, according to BOM, debuting this week is Bleed for This (Open Road Films), Maybe i'm just out of the loop, but just like Shut In, i hadnt even heard of this movie.
You need to find yourself a girl, mate, Miles Teller. I heard great things about Whiplash but i never got around to seeing it. by the looks of it, replace drumming with boxing and you've got yourself a sequel of sorts.
Storyline
The inspirational story of World Champion Boxer Vinny Pazienza who, after a near fatal car crash, which left him not knowing if he'd ever walk again, made one of sports most incredible comebacks.
I predict an opening similar to Shut In, $3M with a total of $9M.
Why fight when you can negotiate?”
In limited release, Nocturnal Animals might have a shot at some PTA… but then again, maybe not, considering It's theater count. Debuting in 36 theaters, i suppose they are hoping that it's B-list star studded cast brings in the audience. Manchester by the Sea has a bit of a better chance at bringing in the PTA points, debuting in 4 theaters. It's current RT score of 98% can't hurt as well. Will Amazon Studios have it's first Oscar contender?
Wherever we want to go, we go… and i might go see these movies at the Redbox while i rent something else.
There are a touch more limited releases, but i don't think they are in the game so i'll skip those.
My predictions for the weekend of November 18-20, 2016:
1. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them - $80 million
2. Doctor Strange - $22 million
3. Trolls - $17 million
4. Arrival - $12 million
5. Edge of Seventeen - $8 million
PTA:
5. Manchester by the Sea
4. Fantastic Beast
3. Nocturnal Animals
2. Billy Lynns
1. Loving
Until next time Ahoy
Now, Bring me that horizon!
You seem familiar, have I threatened you before?
Coming up first, we have Fantastic Beasts and Where To Find Them (Warner Bros). Otherwise known as 'Warner Bros really hopes we all care about a Harry Potter movie without Harry Potter in it'. Don't get me wrong, it's been 5 years since we left Harry, Hermoine, Ron and their children on King’s Cross Station and I would love to see another adventure. However, i can't help but detect a hint of desperation in the advertising and maybe even in the movie itself, chiefly with the announcements of 5 films being greenlit, the casting of Grindlewald, hints of Dumbledore showing up, and the cast just seems lackluster. That being said, the movie should still open in the $70M-$80M range and if the reviews stay favorable, i can see the opening inching a bit higher.
Not all treasure’s silver and gold, mate, but in this case I do think that is what Warner Bros is gunning for.
Storyline
The year is 1926 and Newt Scamander has just completed a global excursion to find and document an extraordinary array of magical creatures. Arriving in New York for a brief stopover, he might have come and gone without incident...were it not for a No-Maj (American for Muggle) named Jacob, a misplaced magical case, and the escape of some of Newt's fantastic beasts, which could spell trouble for both the wizarding and No-Maj worlds.
I’ll predict a $80M OW and $250M overall.
Close your eyes and pretend all a bad dream. That’s how I get by.
Next we have Edge of Seventeen (STX Entertainment). An R rated teen comedy from STX entertainment, it looks like a nonstarter, but maybe it's clever counter-programming. STX had a decent hit on their hands with Bad Moms in the summer. While, my Full Year slate is hoping for that answer, my gut says it's not summer and Hailee Steinfeld is no Mila Kunis. Though if she keeps picking up small parts in bigger movies, ala Pitch Perfect, maybe someday she can be Mila Kunis famous or even more if she plays her cards right...
Why is all the rum gone? maybe that's the only way to get through this movie, or the reason you have this on your slate....
Storyline
Everyone knows that growing up is hard, and life is no easier for high school junior Nadine (Hailee Steinfeld), who is already at peak awkwardness when her all-star older brother Darian (Blake Jenner) starts dating her best friend Krista (Haley Lu Richardson). All at once, Nadine feels more alone than ever, until the unexpected friendship of a thoughtful boy (Hayden Szeto) gives her a glimmer of hope that things just might not be so terrible after all.
I predict an opening of $8M with a total of $30M.
My tremendous intuitive sense of the female creature informs me that you are in trouble.
Also, according to BOM, debuting this week is Bleed for This (Open Road Films), Maybe i'm just out of the loop, but just like Shut In, i hadnt even heard of this movie.
You need to find yourself a girl, mate, Miles Teller. I heard great things about Whiplash but i never got around to seeing it. by the looks of it, replace drumming with boxing and you've got yourself a sequel of sorts.
Storyline
The inspirational story of World Champion Boxer Vinny Pazienza who, after a near fatal car crash, which left him not knowing if he'd ever walk again, made one of sports most incredible comebacks.
I predict an opening similar to Shut In, $3M with a total of $9M.
Why fight when you can negotiate?”
In limited release, Nocturnal Animals might have a shot at some PTA… but then again, maybe not, considering It's theater count. Debuting in 36 theaters, i suppose they are hoping that it's B-list star studded cast brings in the audience. Manchester by the Sea has a bit of a better chance at bringing in the PTA points, debuting in 4 theaters. It's current RT score of 98% can't hurt as well. Will Amazon Studios have it's first Oscar contender?
Wherever we want to go, we go… and i might go see these movies at the Redbox while i rent something else.
There are a touch more limited releases, but i don't think they are in the game so i'll skip those.
My predictions for the weekend of November 18-20, 2016:
1. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them - $80 million
2. Doctor Strange - $22 million
3. Trolls - $17 million
4. Arrival - $12 million
5. Edge of Seventeen - $8 million
PTA:
5. Manchester by the Sea
4. Fantastic Beast
3. Nocturnal Animals
2. Billy Lynns
1. Loving
Until next time Ahoy
Now, Bring me that horizon!
Re: Look! An Undead Movie Column
Thanks for the article, UDM. Particularly liked the quotes from the movies.
Think you're good on your opening weekend figures. Not so sure about the multipliers, though. Edge of 17 should hit about 8, but closing at 30 is an almost 4x multiplier and it's going to need a helluva strong word-of-mouth to hit that. Same with Fantastic Beasts making 250 if it opens to 80 - Potter films were notoriously frontloaded.
1. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them - $82 million
2. Doctor Strange - $20 million
3. Trolls - $19 million
4. Arrival - $12 million
5. Edge of Seventeen - $8 million
PTA: Manchester, Fantastic Beasts, Nocturnal Animals, Elle, Loving
Think you're good on your opening weekend figures. Not so sure about the multipliers, though. Edge of 17 should hit about 8, but closing at 30 is an almost 4x multiplier and it's going to need a helluva strong word-of-mouth to hit that. Same with Fantastic Beasts making 250 if it opens to 80 - Potter films were notoriously frontloaded.
1. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them - $82 million
2. Doctor Strange - $20 million
3. Trolls - $19 million
4. Arrival - $12 million
5. Edge of Seventeen - $8 million
PTA: Manchester, Fantastic Beasts, Nocturnal Animals, Elle, Loving
- Walleye413
- Marv
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Re: Look! An Undead Movie Column
I've got a feeling Edge of Seventeen is going to hit double digits. Maybe not much more than 11 or 12 million, but not quite the single digit expected here.
- undeadmonkey
- Leon
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Re: Look! An Undead Movie Column
Films playing over the holidays have better multipliers than regular films though. However you might be right on Edge of Seventeen. I would bet Fantastic Beasts has a better multiplier than the later Harry Potter films, but not as good as the first few.
I'm sure it would be seen as a disappointment if it made less than any of the Harry Potter films
I'm sure it would be seen as a disappointment if it made less than any of the Harry Potter films
- Chienfantome
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Re: Look! An Undead Movie Column
oooh I hope you and everyone is wrong about Bleed for this. I need it to do much better than that.
Fluctuat nec mergitur
- Shrykespeare
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Re: Look! An Undead Movie Column
Like your predictions, UDM. I think FB will do $90M. (Reaching for the stars, I know.)
Celebrity birthdays:
Sophie Marceau turned 50 on 10/17
Jason Scott Lee turns 50 on 10/19
Bo Derek turns 60 on 10/20
Celebrity birthdays:
Sophie Marceau turned 50 on 10/17
Jason Scott Lee turns 50 on 10/19
Bo Derek turns 60 on 10/20
Happy 60th birthday Jet Li! (4/26/23)
- Shrykespeare
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Re: Look! An Undead Movie Column
Official Theater Counts:
Fantastic Beasts - 4,144
The Edge of Seventeen - 1,945
Bleed For This - 1,549
Nocturnal Animals - 37
Manchester By the Sea - 4
Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk - expands to 1,176
Moonlight - expands to 650
Next week:
Moana - 3,700
Allied - 2,800
Fantastic Beasts - 4,144
The Edge of Seventeen - 1,945
Bleed For This - 1,549
Nocturnal Animals - 37
Manchester By the Sea - 4
Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk - expands to 1,176
Moonlight - expands to 650
Next week:
Moana - 3,700
Allied - 2,800
Happy 60th birthday Jet Li! (4/26/23)
- undeadmonkey
- Leon
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Re: Look! An Undead Movie Column
Midnight Numbers are in
Fantastic Beasts - $8.75M
Edge of Seventeen - $220,000
Bleed For This - $140,000
Fantastic Beasts - $8.75M
Edge of Seventeen - $220,000
Bleed For This - $140,000
- Shrykespeare
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Re: Look! An Undead Movie Column
Friday Estimates:
Fantastic Beasts, $29.7M
Doctor Strange, $4.8M
Trolls, $3.8M
Arrival, $3.4M
Almost Christmas, $2M
Hacksaw Ridge, $1.9M
Edge of Seventeen, $1.7M
Bleed For This, $900K
Weekend Projections:
Fantastic Beasts, $76.5M
Trolls, $17.5M
Doctor Strange, $16.8M
Arrival, $11.7M
Almost Christmas, $7M
Hacksaw Ridge, $6.5M
Edge of Seventeen, $4.9M
Bleed for This, $2.5M
The Accountant, $2M
Shut In, $1.7M
PTA:
Fantastic Beasts, $18K
Nocturnal Animals, $12K
Loving, $6K
Fantastic Beasts, $29.7M
Doctor Strange, $4.8M
Trolls, $3.8M
Arrival, $3.4M
Almost Christmas, $2M
Hacksaw Ridge, $1.9M
Edge of Seventeen, $1.7M
Bleed For This, $900K
Weekend Projections:
Fantastic Beasts, $76.5M
Trolls, $17.5M
Doctor Strange, $16.8M
Arrival, $11.7M
Almost Christmas, $7M
Hacksaw Ridge, $6.5M
Edge of Seventeen, $4.9M
Bleed for This, $2.5M
The Accountant, $2M
Shut In, $1.7M
PTA:
Fantastic Beasts, $18K
Nocturnal Animals, $12K
Loving, $6K
Happy 60th birthday Jet Li! (4/26/23)
- Shrykespeare
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Re: Look! An Undead Movie Column
Weekend Estimates
Top 10:
5 points - Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them, $75.0M
4 points - Doctor Strange, $17.7M
3 points - Trolls, $17.5M
2 points - Arrival, $11.8M
1 point - Almost Christmas, $7.0M
Hacksaw Ridge, $6.7M
The Edge of Seventeen, $4.8M
Bleed For This, $2.4M
The Accountant, $2.1M
Shut In, $1.6M
PTA:
5 points - Manchester By the Sea, $60K
4 points - Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them, $18K
3 points - Nocturnal Animals, $13K
2 points - Loving, $6K
1 point - Elle, $5K
Top 10:
5 points - Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them, $75.0M
4 points - Doctor Strange, $17.7M
3 points - Trolls, $17.5M
2 points - Arrival, $11.8M
1 point - Almost Christmas, $7.0M
Hacksaw Ridge, $6.7M
The Edge of Seventeen, $4.8M
Bleed For This, $2.4M
The Accountant, $2.1M
Shut In, $1.6M
PTA:
5 points - Manchester By the Sea, $60K
4 points - Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them, $18K
3 points - Nocturnal Animals, $13K
2 points - Loving, $6K
1 point - Elle, $5K
Happy 60th birthday Jet Li! (4/26/23)
- Ron Burgundy
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Re: Look! An Undead Movie Column
late to the party (again)
But i enjoyed your article heaps UDM, good title too!
Edge of Seventeen got moved to this weekend, i think that was a bad play. As captain hindsight tells us.
Good predictions in the end. Bar that, im a lil annoyed Hacksaw Ridge hasnt held better despite the glowing reviews, and seemed audiences still arent ready for Villenue, despite this being his best at the BO so far. Then again, i havent seen it, but very well may do Wednesday Night.
The mighty question is- how will beasts hold? Prolly not as good as we all thought a month ago (thankyou captain)
But i enjoyed your article heaps UDM, good title too!
Edge of Seventeen got moved to this weekend, i think that was a bad play. As captain hindsight tells us.
Good predictions in the end. Bar that, im a lil annoyed Hacksaw Ridge hasnt held better despite the glowing reviews, and seemed audiences still arent ready for Villenue, despite this being his best at the BO so far. Then again, i havent seen it, but very well may do Wednesday Night.
The mighty question is- how will beasts hold? Prolly not as good as we all thought a month ago (thankyou captain)
“One time I wrestled a giraffe to the ground with my bare hands.” — Dale
- undeadmonkey
- Leon
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Re: Look! An Undead Movie Column
Wow, all opening below expectations, with the 2 smaller releases bombing.
I'm also curious to see how Beasts holds, with Thanksgiving coming up i'm sure the hold will be a bit inflated but the weeks after will really be telling.
I'm also curious to see how Beasts holds, with Thanksgiving coming up i'm sure the hold will be a bit inflated but the weeks after will really be telling.
- Walleye413
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Re: Look! An Undead Movie Column
Billy Lynn might be one of the flops of the year! Dang thats ugly. And I don't think Beasts will hold up as well as other Potter movies - especially once Moana and Rogue One steal all the audience.
- undeadmonkey
- Leon
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Re: Look! An Undead Movie Column
Rouge One is a month away with Beasts mostly having played out by then. Cant say about Moana though, could be anywhere from the $400M of Frozen to the $100M of Princess and The Frog.
On a different topic, i really hope Manchester By the Sea expands well, looks promising.
On a different topic, i really hope Manchester By the Sea expands well, looks promising.
- Shrykespeare
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Re: Look! An Undead Movie Column
Weekend Actuals
Top 10:
5 points - Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them, $74.4M
4 points - Doctor Strange, $17.8M
3 points - Trolls, $17.4M
2 points - Arrival, $12.1M
1 point - Almost Christmas, $7.3M
Hacksaw Ridge, $6.7M
The Edge of Seventeen, $4.8M
Bleed for This, $2.4M
The Accountant, $2.2M
Shut In, $1.6M
PTA:
5 points - Manchester by the Sea, $64,125
4 points - Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them, $17,954
3 points - Nocturnal Animals, $13,315
2 points - Loving, $7,346
1 point - Elle, $5,269
Top 10:
5 points - Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them, $74.4M
4 points - Doctor Strange, $17.8M
3 points - Trolls, $17.4M
2 points - Arrival, $12.1M
1 point - Almost Christmas, $7.3M
Hacksaw Ridge, $6.7M
The Edge of Seventeen, $4.8M
Bleed for This, $2.4M
The Accountant, $2.2M
Shut In, $1.6M
PTA:
5 points - Manchester by the Sea, $64,125
4 points - Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them, $17,954
3 points - Nocturnal Animals, $13,315
2 points - Loving, $7,346
1 point - Elle, $5,269
Happy 60th birthday Jet Li! (4/26/23)