SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 4/2

[Shrykespeare]

On we go April (aka “Aargh! Still a month to go before Iron Man 2!”), the fourth month in what’s been a pretty interesting year so far. We’ve already seen records broken, and who knows just how many more will fall in the next few months. And while April fare tends to be fairly weak when compared to the films of March and especially May, you just never know what might spring up and surprise? I mean, who expected Fast and Furious to crack $100 million last year?

There are eight films to talk about today, so I won’t waste any more time. The first is what will almost surely be the biggest money-maker of April, that being Clash of the Titans, Warner Bros. attempt at a remake of the 1981 film of the same name. Now, for those of you who never saw the original, let me offer a short retrospective. It starred Harry Hamlin (L.A. Law) as Perseus, the demigod son of Zeus (Sir Laurence Olivier, in one of his final notable roles) and English beauty Judi Bowker as Andromeda. The story was engaging, the action was exciting, and the special effects (typical of Ray Harryhausen films) were atrocious by today’s standards. But for a certain 12-year-old boy, it was the coolest film he’d ever seen apart from Star Wars.

Twenty-nine years later, director Louis Leterrier (The Incredible Hulk) revisits the swords-and-sandals epic, and though the storylines might have changed from the original, many of the characters (and actors) are familiar. Sam Worthington (Avatar) plays Perseus, who, though being the son of Zeus (Liam Neeson), is raised as a man, and must fulfill his destiny by defeating the god Hades (Ralph Fiennes) before he can seize power from Zeus and unleash hell on earth. Alexa Davalos (Chronicles of Riddick) plays Andromeda, and Jason Flemyng and Gemma Arteron are also in the supporting cast.

Scheduled for release in upwards of 3,800 to 4,000 theaters (which may include a lot of 3D locations), Clash of the Titans will run you $25 in the April Ultimate leagues and $28 in Box Office. It may seem like a good pick, but pick wisely… it won’t outgross Iron Man 2 and it probably won’t top Shrek Forever After either, and there is only room for so many multi-blockbusters on your roster at a time. Clash could easily pull in 14 Top 5 points, six PTA and $140 million. I predict $45 million on its OW, for the simple fact that it’s been advertised out the wazoo, and it’s the last full-on action film on tap until Iron Man 2 bows in theaters.

Up next is The Last Song, which has the distinction of opening on Wednesday, March 31st. For this reason, it will not be included in the April leagues. It features Hannah Montana star and pop sensation Miley Cyrus in her most (ahem) dramatic role today, in this latest film adaptation of a Nicholas Sparks novel. Sparks seems to specialize in tear-jerking romantic dramas, having written the novelizations behind Message in a Bottle, The Notebook, Nights in Rodanthe and February’s Dear John.

This is the first major film for director Julie Anne Robinson, who has mainly done television up until now. Cyrus stars as Ronnie Miller, a rebellious teen still smarting after their parents’ ugly divorce three years before. Once a promising piano prodigy, since the departure of her father and teacher Steve (Greg Kinnear), she has refused to play again. But when her mother Kim (Kelly Preston) ships Ronnie and her younger brother Jonah (Bobby Coleman) to her father for the summer, she must find a way to reconnect with her family and herself – not to mention a local hunk (Liam Hemsworth).

Despite the fact that this film (and its soundtrack) prominently feature Cyrus, I’m not sure just how big a draw it will be. It may or may not pull in a significant percentage of the Hannah Montana crowd, which is what it will have to do in order to be a success. But it’s scheduled for release on only 2,500 theaters, which makes me believe that an OW of $16 million is the best it will do. For $12 in Ultimate in the March Leagues ($14 in Box Office), I think you’re looking at only five Top 5 points (tops), probably no PTA, and a very average User Rating. I’d pass.

It’s no secret that IMDb is full of haters. And if there are two genres of films that tend to bring them out in droves, it is pre- and mid-teen-centered movies and African-American-centered movies. In other words, these people will happily give any movie in this genre a “1” on the “1 to 10” scale despite having never come close to actually, you know, SEEING the film. It’s the reason why no Tyler Perry movie has a User Rating above 4.5, which, I think you’ll agree, is wholly unjust and unfair.

However, since it’s an imperfect world, and there’s nothing we can do about it, consider yourself forewarned before picking Why Did I Get Married Too, at least in Ultimate ($12 in April). This is a sequel to Perry’s modest hit from fall 2007, Why Did I Get Married?, and the entire cast of that film is back for the second go-round: Janet Jackson, Tasha Smith, Jill Scott, Malik Yoba, Michael Jai White, Richard T. Jones, Sharon Leal, and, of course, Perry himself. The plot centers around four couples who travel to the exotic Bahamas for their annual reunion so they can share news about their relationships. Of course, judging from the overly-dramatic, overwrought trailer (that features freakin’ “Nadia’s Theme” at the end, for the love of…), things don’t end exactly happily.

The original Married made $55 million in late 2007, which is about average for a Perry film, which almost universally do well at the Box Office (despite the haters, and despite its low theater count). $20 million is reasonable despite its 2,000-theater platform, which means a high PTA count is also very likely. Which, along with six Top Five points, would make it a terrific pick, if it weren’t for that darn User Rating which will likely be in the 3.0-4.0 range. Box Office leagues are better in that you don’t have to worry about that, but $14 is only a good price tag if you think this film has $70 million in it. I personally think it will top out at $60 million (if that).

And now, a bit about this week’s FIVE limited-release films:

Leaves of Grass ($3 Ult) – This outing by actor/director Tim Blake Nelson features a double dose of Edward Norton, who stars as both Bill and Brady Kincaid, twin brothers who turned out very different. Bill is an Ivy League professor, who gets lured back home to Tulsa, Oklahoma when he finds out about the death of his brother Brady. Of course, this turns out to be a ruse, as Brady (a small-time pot grower) has run afoul of a local drug lord (Richard Dreyfuss). Brady has concocted a scheme to take the drug lord down, which involves Bill taking his place. Susan Sarandon, Keri Russell and Nelson also co-star.

This has gotten good reviews so far (4/5 on RT, 7.2 with over 2,000 votes on IMDb), and if its theater count is less than 20, I would definitely choose it as my PTA pick of the week.

Thorn in the Heart ($4 Ult) – Director Michael Gondry (Be Kind Rewind) is behind this documentary, which chronicles the life of his own family’s matriarch, his aunt Suzette.

This film debuted at Cannes last year to mixed reviews, and while it currently has a very good User Rating (7.9/65 votes), I’m a little scared by its current reception at RT (only 2/5 good reviews). Scheduled to debut only in New York, I would pick this only if you believe that Gondry’s mystique is enough to fill theaters.

The Greatest ($4 Ult) – No, not a film about Muhammad Ali or Wayne Gretzky, it’s actually the debut outing for director Shana Feste. It stars Oscar-nominated actress Carey Mulligan as Rose, a young woman who falls in love with a young man named Bennett Brewer (Aaron Johnson). Tragically, their love is cut short when Bennett dies in a car accident, and emotions run high when rose presents herself to his parents (Susan Sarandon and Pierce Brosnan) several months pregnant. Together, they must find a way to work through their grief.

There are no reviews in the can for this film at RT, but if it means anything to you, it was nominated for the Grand Jury Prize at Sundance. Its current User Rating is only so-so (6.7 with just under 500 votes), but as it, too, is only debuting in New York, it could easily jump up and snag a few PTA points.

(The) Warlords ($4 Ult) – This is a 2007 period-piece war drama starring Jet Li as one of three brothers who are forced to turn against each other due to the harsh realities of war and politics during the Taiping Rebellion in 1860’s China.

From the trailer, it looks like any of a dozen sweeping historical Asian war epics. It’s gotten so-so reviews at RT (8/14), with most critics agreeing that the battle scenes are beautifully done, but that the story itself is somewhat lacking. It’s got a very good User Rating (7.2 with over 7,000 votes) that isn’t likely to change, but it’s rare that a film like this becomes PTA champ, so I’d honestly pass on this unless you are severely hurting for User Rating points.

Breaking Upwards ($3 Ult) – This film from indie director Daryl Wein stars Wein with Zoe Lister Jones as a young, real-life New York couple who, four years in and battling codependency, decide to intricately strategize their own breakup. Based on an actual experiment devised by Wein and Jones, the film loosely interprets a year in their lives exploring alternatives to monogamy, and the madness that ensues (or so says the film’s website, which is where you’ll also find the links to the film’s reviews, as there are none yet on RT. Olivia Thirlby, Julie White and Andrea Martin co-star.

Yet another title being released only in New York this weekend, with a concurrent L.A. release in one week. Its current Rating is 7.1 (with only 55 votes), but something about the feel of this movie just looks too “indie” for me to get on board with it. I’d pass, unless you’re feeling very adventurous, like “Exploding Girl” adventurous.


My predictions for the weekend of April 2-4, 2010:

1. Clash of the Titans - $45 million
2. How to Train Your Dragon - $25 million
3. Why Did I Get Married Too - $20 million
4. The Last Song - $16 million
5. Alice in Wonderland – $10 million

Well, that will do it for me for another week. Next week, I’ll only have the equivalent of a light supper to discuss, with only three films total on the docket, including: Date Night, an action-comedy starring Steve Carell and Tina Fey, as well as limited releases The Mission and The Square.

Later!

[Buscemi]

You forgot to mention that Leaves Of Grass was initally supposed to go straight-to-DVD until First Look decided at the last minute to delay it and send it into theatres. Anyways, I expect middling box office for First Look's seemingly bleak outlook on the film and the fact that they are promoting it as a laugh-out-loud comedy (the actual film is supposedly much darker).

Meanwhile, Miley Cyrus may be the least convincing New Yorker in movie history according to The Last Song's previews. She's supposed to be a native New Yorker however she still has a Southern accent (and other things that could be considered libelous but how the hell is it libel when you know it's true in some way, hell anything could be considered libelous in some way).

[J.I.]

I think Clash would have opened to $45 million if it hadn't been for the 3D switch. Now I see about $55 million.

[BanksIsDaFuture]

For some reason, I want to see The Last Song. And I will.

[Buscemi]

And Leaves Of Grass has been pulled from April 2nd. Could we be seeing a Meet Bill situation here? (In which the movie opens regionally* despite positive early word and gets pulled from theatres after two weeks)

*- best guesses for regional markets: Austin (movies like this seem to fare well the best in Austin), Oklahoma City (the film was shot in Oklahoma, I think and the director is from around there) and Baltimore (Edward Norton grew up not too far from Baltimore and has opened some movies there).

[Brockster]

Any tracking for Clash of the Titans yet?

[numbersix]

Tracking figures I've seen place it at about 70mil for the opening weekend.

[Buscemi]

Reviews haven't been that promising though (especially for the 3-D version).

[W]

The Last Song isn't in the April Leagues and it was pickable in the January leagues because they consider it a March release, which means the January leagues weren't really over until you count The Last Song's first day gross. Just FYI.

[Brockster]

So, Last Song does 5.1M on Wednesday. Imdb is already at 3.7 (sure to go lower).

What do you guys think that 5.1M will mean for it's weekend box office? My expectations are higher now as I didn't think it's first day would be so high.

[undeadmonkey]

Not sure, I think it might still be too early to tell, i think we'll know better when we see how it holds up on thursday and see how front loaded it was

[Buscemi]

Fangirl effect most likely. Also, the Wednesday opening was good for the raincoat crowd.

[Brockster]

4.2M on Thursday for Last Song...pretty decent hold. IMDB is still atrocious.

[undeadmonkey]

yea, that's a pretty great hold actually, it should hold up well against titans

[BanksIsDaFuture]

Why Did I Get Married Too outperformed Clash tonight!!

I doubt it'll win the weekend, but it'll be a lot closer than everyone thought.