Walleye's Weekly Winners: The Films of 11/11

[Walleye413]

Well Alrighty then,

It appears Marvel has another hit on their hands. Their ability to bring the lesser known heroes from their cannon into the limelight still amazes me. But that, along with Trolls, Hacksaw Ridge, even Loving, made last week a monster weekend after a lot of dull so far this Fall. Will the hits keep on coming? Nope.

Doctor Strange is going to win this weekend. Trolls should come in second. But that doesn’t mean we don’t have new movies to talk about. Oh yes, we have movies.

Let’s begin with Arrival. It’s a good year to be a Space movie – as long as you’re leaving Earth (See: Rogue One, or Passengers. No, really, see them.) But aliens coming to earth? Didn’t work so well for Independence Day. And in spite of all the buzz and good vibes for Arrival, I don’t think it’s going to be the hit some are expecting. Amy Adams (who, to be clear, I would watch in absolutely anything) is a linguist who needs to figure out the Aliens (No, not those aliens) and their language before. . . well we don’t know exactly. Fortunately she has Hawkeye to keep her safe from whatever may be falling out of the sky. As mentioned there’s a lot of high praise around this one. I think it’ll get quite a few eyes to start, but in the end I don’t think Americans are going to get too excited for heady sci-fi. Especially with so much more on the horizon. Arrival will open to 19 million, which will only be good enough for 3rd place. It’ll end up at 62 million, 4 top 5 points and a couple of PTA’s. If it picks up a little Oscar buzz (Nomination #6 for Amy?) it may go higher, but I wouldn’t bet on it. You should have picked Trolls instead.

Almost Christmas is trying for a niche market that has been well filled in past years for the African American community. November has been a good month for crowd pleasers in that genre. At least part of that has come from the fact that this is such an overlooked part of the American audience. However this year, for a variety of reasons, there are actual choices in this field and that’s going to end up hurting this particular movie. Almost Christmas has the generic plot of a dysfunctional family gathering for Thanksgiving dinner (yeah, I know, wrong holiday). They’ve got a solid cast with Danny Glover, Gabrielle Union, and more. But it came out the wrong year to really make much noise. It’ll open to 14 million, good enough for 4th place this week. But it will top out at 35 million total, 2 top 5 points and no PTA. Bet on Fences instead.

Our last wide release is Shut In – and it’s going to bomb. How did Naomi Watts and Jacob Tremblay end up in this? The convoluted plot has Watts as a child psychologist caught in a New England winter storm, where Tremblay is disappearing? Sure, why not. With so many scary movies doing above average business the past few months (and having legitimate plots and such) – a bad movie with no discernable hook just isn’t going to cut it. Shut In will open to 3.76 million on its way 8.95 million total. It’ll get you no Top 5 points, No PTA, and No love in this game. Stay away. Stay far, far away.

The hardest movie to peg this weekend is Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk. Other than a terrible title – this movie has so many great things going for it. Ang Lee has been an inventive and Oscar nominated director since Crouching Tiger in 2000(!) And this might be his most ambitious movie to date. Lee shot the movie at an Ultra-high film rate never seen in broad cinema. Visually this movie should be incredible. The cast is sneakily underrated with Kristen Stewart, Vin Diesel, and Steve Martin all doing the kind of work to remind everyone they’re really great actors when you remove them from all the noise. Months ago this looked like a sure-fire Oscar pick with the box office to match. And then, the buzz faded, due mostly to so many other great films stealing the spotlight. So, Billy Lynn has shifted. This was supposed to go wide this week, but now it’s showing only in 2 theatres in NY/LA – hoping to then build on great word of mouth to get back into the game. What does that mean for our game? Who knows! It’ll win the PTA crowd this week for sure. Next week, depending on how much it expands, it’ll get a few Top 5 points. But after that, I think it’s going to get swamped by Beasts/Nocturnal Animals/Moana/Lion/Jackie/etc. I think this looks like the most interesting movie of the weekend. Check it out when it opens in your town, but you’re brave to put it on your slates.

The PTA hits keep coming with Elle, the official French selection for this year’s Oscar race. To be fully honest, I’ve always found Paul Verhoeven to be a bit of a misogynist, and this movie isn’t changing my opinion at all. I’m sure Isabelle Huppert deserves the Oscar buzz, and gives a “powerful” performance where she ends up with the power and control, but all I see is rape as another plot device. Maybe I’m wrong, but I won’t be seeing this one to find out. Elle will get you 3 or 4 PTA’s this week depending on how everything else unfolds. Chien probably has a better take on this one than me, too, so if you want some real advice or a better review hit him up.

I’m much more intrigued by our next PTA hopeful: Seasons. This is a German documentary detailing the history of the earth from the Ice Age to modern days – as told from the perspective of the animals. I’m not sure how they found footage from the Ice Age (Hope it’s better than that Blair Witch footage), but dang it looks good. Though, to be fair, I’m a sucker for gorgeous visuals. Seasons has been around for forever, so I don’t know if anyone on this side of the pond who has really wanted to see it hasn’t found it somehow already. But I think it’ll catch a few eyeballs and may snag a PTA or two. There are worse movies to pick.

And that wraps it up, finally, oh wait. Seriously? Another movie? Who’s idea was it to have 7 movies in one weekend. Okay, let’s check out this last one: The Love Witch! Didn’t Sandra Bullock make this about 20 years ago? Well, this either sounds like a hoot or a bomb. A witch uses her spells to snare love interests only to have that horribly backfire. This is described as a Horror-Comedy shot in Technicolor. I’m sure it’ll be better than Shut In, although that’s not saying much. In such a crowded weekend, and with so much more Oscar bait this season it’s hard to come up with a reason for choosing this one – but I’ve got just the thing. Just for fun – I think whoever puts together a winning slate with The Love Witch on their slate will get an author signed copy of Shryke’s latest book. Having read his stuff, that’s a pretty dang good prize right there. So, what do you say, who’s going to give The Love Witch a shot?

Until next week – when the world of Harry Potter makes a triumphant return. . .

Top 5
Doctor Strange
Trolls
Arrival
Almost Christmas
BOO (snagging one more point!)

PTA
Billy Lynn
Elle
Doctor Strange
Seasons
The Love Witch (Could happen)

[Chienfantome]

Seasons actually is a French documentary, Walleye, it's not German
And too bad you won't be seeing Elle, it certainly is in my Top 10 films of the year for now (and I've seen A LOT )

[numbersix]

Elle is also a Top 10 movie for me. And to call Verhoven a misogynist is a little unfair. Haven't seen Showgirls so I can't comment, but in terms of Elle, the point of the film is about how we expect people to respond to rape and how they defy that. It's challenging, but definitely not cheap or misogynist, and the fact that the film hasn't received any criticism about this is both surprising and reassuring. . If you're going to level that criticism at any film it should be Nocturnal Animals.

Besides that, good analysis. I've seen predictions for Arrival going from 15 to 40m, but 20'ish seems about right. Might go a little higher on Almost christmas, but not much. Why $3.76 for Shut in specifically? And do you think Loving will get no loving on the PTA front?

Top 5
Doctor Strange - $38m
Trolls - $26m
Arrival - $20m
Almost Christmas - $16m
Hacksaw Ridge - $9m

PTA: Billy Lynn, Elle, Loving, Doctor Strange, Seasons

[Walleye413]

Totally forgot about Loving on the PTA front - that'll score again this week for sure.

And I told you you guys would have better things to say about Elle than me, glad you chimed in.

[Shrykespeare]

Great column Walleye! You should do this more often!

[Shrykespeare]

Weekend Estimates


Top 10:
5 points - Doctor Strange, $43.0M
4 points - Trolls, $35.0M
3 points - Arrival, $24.0M
2 points - Almost Christmas, $15.6M
1 point - Hacksaw Ridge, $10.8M
The Accountant, $4.6M
Shut In, $3.7M
Boo! A Madea Halloween, $3.6M
Jack Reacher: Never Go Back, $3.3M
Inferno, $3.2M



PTA:
5 points - Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk, $60K
4 points - Elle, $28K
3 points - Loving, $11.5K
2 points - Doctor Strange, $11K
1 point - Arrival, $10.3K

Wow. Five films over $10K!

No word on Seasons or The Love Witch, but I'm not hopeful they can crack THIS Top 5.

[Walleye413]

Just saying, my prediction on Shut In is going to be spot on perfect!

[Ron Burgundy]

Solid predictions wallsy

[Shrykespeare]

Weekend Actuals


Top 10:
5 points - Doctor Strange, $43.0M
4 points - Trolls, $35.0M
3 points - Arrival, $24.1M
2 points - Almost Christmas, $15.1M
1 point - Hacksaw Ridge, $10.6M
The Accountant, $4.4M
Shut In, $3.6M
Boo! A Madea Halloween, $3.5M
Jack Reacher: Never Go Back, $3.3M
Inferno, $3.3M



PTA:
5 points - Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk, $57,065
4 points - Elle, $25,467
3 points - Loving, $11,149
2 points - Doctor Strange, $11,069
1 point - Arrival, $10,390

Love Witch - $3,833

Still no word on Seasons.

[Ron Burgundy]

damn, look at them PTA numbers!