SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE - FILMS OF 10/21
Posted: October 18th, 2016, 4:56 am
Oh my. How did I end up with having to provide analysis on 7 films for one weekend? The industry, terrified of Halloween, has decided to plonk a bunch of films onto the weekend before and let them battle it out to see who the winner is. Likewise for the smaller distributors who have three prestige flicks aiming for the PTA crown.
The clear winner will be Jack Reacher: Never Go Back (Paramount). Yes, that title makes it sound like a hip-hop dance flick, but actually it’s the sequel to the 2012 action film that performed moderately well ($80m in the US) though needed worldwide sales to make it profitable. The original film had legendary director Werner Herzog as the villain, so I had hoped the sequel had David Lynch battling Jack Reacher with his army of backwards-speaking dwarves. Alas this film merely pits the rogue crime-solver (Tom Cruise) against a mysterious Hunter (Patrick Heusinger) as he tries to clear the name of his army buddy Major Turner (Cobie Smulders).
Despite the popularity of the book series, this film sequel doesn’t come across as particularly wanted. If Mr Scientology just about managed to make the first film to do well, we’re more than likely going to see diminishing returns on this one, particularly when last week saw the older adult audience go for The Accountant and next week they’ll have Tom Hanks solving ridiculously stupid conspiracy theories in Inferno. So I see this film opening at about $20m and making $55m or so cume, due to a hard drop next weekend. That’s not great for a film that’ll cost you $14 or $15 in BO. However, in the Ultimate game you are going to see a pretty much guaranteed 10 T5 points, 3 or 4 PTA points, and an IMDB score in the mid 6s. If you need a mid range filler for your Ultimate slate, this isn’t a bad choice, though cheaper Xmas flicks Sing and Passengers may result in better numbers.
It wouldn’t be Halloween without some schlocky horror to get the teens all excited. And while the summer saw some surprise hits, October is strangely sparse of supernatural jolts. Ouija: Origin of Evil (Universal) is a prequel to the 2014 film about kids playing around with the board that allows you to talk to the dead. I’m not sure what’s terrifying about a Hasbro board game. There have probably been more deaths caused by Monopoly family fallouts than this.
With a new cast and new director (Mike Flanagan, of Oculus and Hush fame), this should act like most horrors (besides The Conjuring) and make less than the first film, unless it receives rave reviews. It should open to about $12m and make around $30 in total, much less than the original’s $50m. That’s going to get you around 4 T5 points, possibly a single PTA point, and an IMDB score in the 4s. For its $8 pricetag in Ultimate and BO, I’d join the general public and avoid.
What will probably be far scarier is the sight of Tyler Perry in drag yet again. Boo! A Madea Halloween (Lionsgate) revives the Madea franchise once more, despite Perry’s stock being at an all-time low. You really don’t need to know the plot. It’s a dude in a fat costume dealing with ghosts and things. However, let’s not let personal taste get in the way of the numbers. Madea’s last cinematic outing was a Christmas one, and it ended up with $50 across the holidays. Even if this film doesn’t perform as well (and a 2014 TV movie suggests Madea isn’t what she used to be), you could still see it opening in the high teens and closing with about $40m. Which makes it an interesting prospect for the BO game, where it costs $8 (6 for the August leagues). If you have that gap in your slate, I would consider it. For Ultimate you’re going to have to deal with the horrible ratings Perry’s films normally receive but you will get 6 T5 points and 1-2 PTA points. It’s certainly tempting, if you can find something small to balance out that IMDB rating.
Finally, Keeping Up With The Joneses (Fox) is a long-delayed comedy about a suburban couple who get caught up in some spy shenanigans. Haven’t we seen this film before? Unlike the similar Date Night, this film features lesser stars like Isla Fisher and Zach Galifianakis. There’s very little buzz about this film, and not even Fox seem that bothered about it. Even though it’s the first proper comedy in some time, it’s still going to open low (around 7m), make very little (20m) and thus give you little when it comes to Ultimate stats. It’s not worth the $6-8 you’ll have to fork up to nab it.
Now that the wide films are done, I’m going to have to breeze through the limited releases just to avoid overloading the site.
Moonlight (A24) has all the markings of a limited hit. Not only is prestige arthouse distributor A24 releasing it, but the film, an adaptation of the hit play dealing with three defining eras in a young African-American man’s life, has gone down a storm in festivals like Telluride, Toronto, London and NY. And it’s the kind of film that could easily end up being nominated for an Oscar. Assuming A24 are going to stick to their strategy of opening in a handful of theatres and slowly platforming, this film could earn over 10 PTA points and maintain its current IMDB score in the 8s. It’s either $3 or $5 in Ultimate leagues, and is without doubt worth grabbing. For $1 in BO it also could deliver some good numbers.
American Pastoral (Lionsgate) is the kind of prestige title that should draw sophisticated city folk. Being an adaptation of the novel by successful middle-class pseudo-intellectual God Philip Roth is a plus. Director and lead is Ewan McGregor, but unfortunately the reviews aren’t strong enough, nor is the OW theatre count (45). It might get 1 PTA point at best, but really it’s not worth the $4 Ultimate price or $1 in BO.
The Handmaiden (Magnolia) is an Asian lesbian erotic thriller. What’s not to love? It also happens to be directed by South Korean auteur Chan-Wook Park, and is receiving his best reviews since Old Boy exploded into the international scene. Magnolia don’t have a lot of money to put into marketing, but festival WOM and its theatre count (an estimated 5) will make this worth the bargain price of $3.
My predictions for the weekend
1. Jack Reacher: Never Go Back - $21M
2. Boo! A Madea Halloween - $18M
3. Ouija 2: Origin of Evil - $12.5M
4. The Accountant - $12M
5. Keeping Up with the Joneses - $7m
PTA: Moonlight, The Handmaiden, Jack Reacher 2, Boo, American Pastoral
Next week Banks will return with the hefty task of looking at one film. Inferno. Just one. That gives him more time to get his prediction right, unlike last week (haha).
The clear winner will be Jack Reacher: Never Go Back (Paramount). Yes, that title makes it sound like a hip-hop dance flick, but actually it’s the sequel to the 2012 action film that performed moderately well ($80m in the US) though needed worldwide sales to make it profitable. The original film had legendary director Werner Herzog as the villain, so I had hoped the sequel had David Lynch battling Jack Reacher with his army of backwards-speaking dwarves. Alas this film merely pits the rogue crime-solver (Tom Cruise) against a mysterious Hunter (Patrick Heusinger) as he tries to clear the name of his army buddy Major Turner (Cobie Smulders).
Despite the popularity of the book series, this film sequel doesn’t come across as particularly wanted. If Mr Scientology just about managed to make the first film to do well, we’re more than likely going to see diminishing returns on this one, particularly when last week saw the older adult audience go for The Accountant and next week they’ll have Tom Hanks solving ridiculously stupid conspiracy theories in Inferno. So I see this film opening at about $20m and making $55m or so cume, due to a hard drop next weekend. That’s not great for a film that’ll cost you $14 or $15 in BO. However, in the Ultimate game you are going to see a pretty much guaranteed 10 T5 points, 3 or 4 PTA points, and an IMDB score in the mid 6s. If you need a mid range filler for your Ultimate slate, this isn’t a bad choice, though cheaper Xmas flicks Sing and Passengers may result in better numbers.
It wouldn’t be Halloween without some schlocky horror to get the teens all excited. And while the summer saw some surprise hits, October is strangely sparse of supernatural jolts. Ouija: Origin of Evil (Universal) is a prequel to the 2014 film about kids playing around with the board that allows you to talk to the dead. I’m not sure what’s terrifying about a Hasbro board game. There have probably been more deaths caused by Monopoly family fallouts than this.
With a new cast and new director (Mike Flanagan, of Oculus and Hush fame), this should act like most horrors (besides The Conjuring) and make less than the first film, unless it receives rave reviews. It should open to about $12m and make around $30 in total, much less than the original’s $50m. That’s going to get you around 4 T5 points, possibly a single PTA point, and an IMDB score in the 4s. For its $8 pricetag in Ultimate and BO, I’d join the general public and avoid.
What will probably be far scarier is the sight of Tyler Perry in drag yet again. Boo! A Madea Halloween (Lionsgate) revives the Madea franchise once more, despite Perry’s stock being at an all-time low. You really don’t need to know the plot. It’s a dude in a fat costume dealing with ghosts and things. However, let’s not let personal taste get in the way of the numbers. Madea’s last cinematic outing was a Christmas one, and it ended up with $50 across the holidays. Even if this film doesn’t perform as well (and a 2014 TV movie suggests Madea isn’t what she used to be), you could still see it opening in the high teens and closing with about $40m. Which makes it an interesting prospect for the BO game, where it costs $8 (6 for the August leagues). If you have that gap in your slate, I would consider it. For Ultimate you’re going to have to deal with the horrible ratings Perry’s films normally receive but you will get 6 T5 points and 1-2 PTA points. It’s certainly tempting, if you can find something small to balance out that IMDB rating.
Finally, Keeping Up With The Joneses (Fox) is a long-delayed comedy about a suburban couple who get caught up in some spy shenanigans. Haven’t we seen this film before? Unlike the similar Date Night, this film features lesser stars like Isla Fisher and Zach Galifianakis. There’s very little buzz about this film, and not even Fox seem that bothered about it. Even though it’s the first proper comedy in some time, it’s still going to open low (around 7m), make very little (20m) and thus give you little when it comes to Ultimate stats. It’s not worth the $6-8 you’ll have to fork up to nab it.
Now that the wide films are done, I’m going to have to breeze through the limited releases just to avoid overloading the site.
Moonlight (A24) has all the markings of a limited hit. Not only is prestige arthouse distributor A24 releasing it, but the film, an adaptation of the hit play dealing with three defining eras in a young African-American man’s life, has gone down a storm in festivals like Telluride, Toronto, London and NY. And it’s the kind of film that could easily end up being nominated for an Oscar. Assuming A24 are going to stick to their strategy of opening in a handful of theatres and slowly platforming, this film could earn over 10 PTA points and maintain its current IMDB score in the 8s. It’s either $3 or $5 in Ultimate leagues, and is without doubt worth grabbing. For $1 in BO it also could deliver some good numbers.
American Pastoral (Lionsgate) is the kind of prestige title that should draw sophisticated city folk. Being an adaptation of the novel by successful middle-class pseudo-intellectual God Philip Roth is a plus. Director and lead is Ewan McGregor, but unfortunately the reviews aren’t strong enough, nor is the OW theatre count (45). It might get 1 PTA point at best, but really it’s not worth the $4 Ultimate price or $1 in BO.
The Handmaiden (Magnolia) is an Asian lesbian erotic thriller. What’s not to love? It also happens to be directed by South Korean auteur Chan-Wook Park, and is receiving his best reviews since Old Boy exploded into the international scene. Magnolia don’t have a lot of money to put into marketing, but festival WOM and its theatre count (an estimated 5) will make this worth the bargain price of $3.
My predictions for the weekend
1. Jack Reacher: Never Go Back - $21M
2. Boo! A Madea Halloween - $18M
3. Ouija 2: Origin of Evil - $12.5M
4. The Accountant - $12M
5. Keeping Up with the Joneses - $7m
PTA: Moonlight, The Handmaiden, Jack Reacher 2, Boo, American Pastoral
Next week Banks will return with the hefty task of looking at one film. Inferno. Just one. That gives him more time to get his prediction right, unlike last week (haha).
