Hoping to ape the success that David Fincher's Gone Girl had on this same weekend last year, Universal dated their adaptation of a best-selling adult thriller novel, The Girl on The Train, as quickly as they could. However, the Emily Blunt-starrer couldn't quite match Gone Girl's $37M opening - but its $24M 3-day is more than respectable for the genre. Girl on The Train didn't have the A-list star power of Ben Affleck and the directorial gravitas that David Fincher demands, so opening at #1 is a bonafide victory for Universal here. It should leg out throughout October, and we'll most likely see it end somewhere around $80M. The other two wide openings couldn't fare nearly as well. First, The Birth of A Nation, which Fox Searchlight paid $17M out of Sundance, could only muster $7M, and ended up in 6th place. While some may attribute this to the bad press Nate Parker has had over the past month due to a rape allegation when he was in college, it's important to remember that 12 Years A Slave opened to less in its wide debut back in 2013. Such a harsh movie makes good for awards, but it typically would not set the box office on fire. And secondly, Lionsgate opted to drop their kids movie, Middle School: The Worst Years of My Life, this weekend to counter program the seriousness of Birth and Girl, but it didn't work out very well. It opened in 7th place with only $6.8M, which is line with other live-action kiddie films recently.
On the limited front, The Girl on The Train managed to hold out the holdovers to win 5 PTA points this weekend. The Holocaust film, Denial, managed another 4 points, giving it 9 so far. Miss Peregrine and Deepwater filled up the middle spots, while The Birth of a Nation managed to grab the last spot. Unexpectedly, A24's American Honey is already out of the PTA race, and it'll settle for just 4 points total most likely.
This week's wide releases...
The Accountant (WB) - Two weeks of adult dramas that came in slightly under expectations, WB is hoping their latest Ben Affleck collaboration will break the streak, as they're pushing The Accountant into over 3,300 theaters this weekend. Gavin O'Connor's action-drama stars Affleck as the aforementioned Accountant, Christian Wolff, a ridiculously intelligent accountant who also moonlights as a paid assassin when the mood strikes. Shit hits the fan as the Treasury Department starts to close in on him and his clients. Co-starring Anna Kendrick, J.K. Simmons, and John Lithgow, it currently isn't the critical mastermind we'd all assumed it would be - sitting at a shitty 48% days before opening. If it's one thing adult dramas need to be to become box office hits, it's....um, good? (Yes, The Girl on the Train is even worse with its 43%, but it's also based on one of the most popular novels in recent years.)
Even with recent Oscar winner J.K. Simmons and Squirrel Girl-hopeful Anna Kendrick in the cast, WB has tossed them aside and gone full Affleck (even though they covered his face for the poster, for some dumb reason). Anyone who wrote off Ben around his Gigli/Bennifer days would blow their brains out if they saw how on top of Hollywood Ben has been for the past half-decade. His hits are consistent, excepting for his Justin Timberlake gambling drama Runner Runner three years ago. But The Accountant has nothing else going for it, besides the presence of the Batfleck. The marketing has focused primarily on his character's weird intelligence, he's almost like a buff Sheldon from The Big Bang Theory. It may end up performing the worst out of the three adult dramas of the past three weeks, and it's not worth the $15 it'll cost you in Oct-Dec Leagues. It will open to $17M, grabbing 6 Top 5 points, 2 PTA points, and total out right around $45M.
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Kevin Hart: What Now? (Universal) - Three movies in a calendar year isn't over saturation, is it? What about four, if you include voice work? Well, even if it is, Kevin Hart has never shied away from working overtime in cineplexes. His latest stand-up feature, What Now?, is indeed his fourth movie of the calendar year, and is getting the widest release for a stand-up ever. Universal is pushing it into over 2,500 theaters, and hoping that Hart's social media savvy will make it worth its P&A. Last August, Hart became the first comedian ever to perform in a professional football stadium, selling out Lincoln Financial Field in Philadelphia; its 50,000 capacity is almost 2.5 times the size of the Mecca itself, Madison Square Garden. This of course is Hart's third stand-up special to open in theaters, but it's easily the first since he became a bonafide movie star. 2013's Let Me Explain ($10M/$32M) opened in less than 1,000 theaters, and at that time, his only starring role was the first Think Like A Man.
Since then, Kevin Hart has had 7 live action films finish above $50M, including Ride Along and Central Intelligence - both of which totaled above $125M. The only reason why What Now? won't be able to double Let Me Explain's opening and total is the belief that he has oversaturated himself, as he's released no less than two live-action films a year for the last 4 years. In what might be the surprise of the season, What Now? will edge out The Accountant for the #1 spot this weekend.
Hart's latest will open to $19M, amassing 8 Top 5 points, 6 PTA points, before filling up Universal's pockets to the tune of $45M by the end of his run. Its $7 price is the bargain of the holiday season, and it'll most likely feature into the winning slate by the end of the year.
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***Open Road is also opening their long-delayed adaptation, Max Steel, into 2,000 theaters, but being a late addition to the schedule, it's not featured in our game at all. It won't open to more than $5M anyhow, so no huge loss there.***
This weekend's limited releases...
Desierto (STX) - STX has delayed their Mexican immigration action-drama twice already, and are finally quietly pushing it into 73 theaters this weekend. Starring Gael Garcia Bernal and Jeffrey Dean Morgan, Desierto is the story of a group of Mexican citizens who try to illegally cross the U.S. border before running into a dangerous lawman (Morgan), who's hellbent on sending them back home - dead or alive.
What was once believed to be a topical drama that could turn its plot controversies into box office success is now a dump title. Its 73 theater count makes it irrelevant in any PTA conversation, and it should be avoided by all.
Miss Hosukai (GKids) - The latest Japanimation import from GKIDS, Miss Hosukai is a step in a new direction for the animated genre. Instead of superheroes or talking animals, the film is set in 1814 and is a drama focusing on the life of O-Ei, the daughter of real-life famed Japanese artist Tetsuzo, as she navigates her art career and assists her father with his impending divorce. Although it is rated PG-13, these films are almost always aimed at an adult audience anyhow so that shouldn't effect its box office take too much.
Earlier this year, GKIDS released April And the Extraordinary World into only one theater and it was able to sneak away 3 PTA points from in two weekends, thanks to a PTA field dominated by only Miles Ahead and BvS. Miss Hosukai has an even softer field to contend with, and should easily match April's PTA output. If you have room on your slate after loading up on the Oscar hopefuls in November and December, Miss Hosukai is worth a $3 flier.
Priceless (Roadside) - Roadside Attractions is king of studio's that released their PTA titles into way too many theaters, at least too many to make them worthwhile in our game. They've done it this year with Southside With You, Our Kind of Traitor, and A Hologram For The King - and they're continuing that with this week's Priceless, bowing into 303 theaters. It's an absolute pass for any and everyone; while all three of those examples had star power to generate interest, Priceless is sorely missing that.
What's even more aggravating is that Roadside has shown that, given the right release pattern, they can turn their films into PTA goldmines. Love & Friendship and Hello, My Name Is Doris both were released in single digit theaters and easily were worth their Ultimate prices. Shit luck this week, then.
It's Batman Vs Black Man This Weekend of October 14th-16th:
1. Kevin Hart: What Now? - $19M
2. The Accountant - $17M
3. The Girl on The Train - $15M
4. Miss Peregrine's Home for Peculiar Children - $9M
5. Deepwater Horizon - $7M
PTA: Kevin Hart: What Now?, Denial, Miss Hosukai, The Accountant, The Girl On The Train
Next week gives us a ridiculous slate of films, with 4 wide releases, top lined by Jack Reacher: Never Go Back and Ouija: Origin of Evil, and three limited releases, including festival darling Moonlight from A24. Good luck Six!
