Walleye's Weekly Winners: The Films of 10/7

[Walleye413]

Tim Burton is back – Mark Wahlberg can’t win – and Denial would not be denied. It wasn’t the wackiest of weekends at the Box Office – but it was pretty lackluster all the same. Other than Sully really breaking out this past month, it’s been a long time since we’ve seen a real hit at the old Cinerama. Does that change this week? Well, maybe.

It could happen with The Girl on the Train. Clearly trying to capture the same audience that made Gone Girl a huge hit in 2014 – the pedigree is compelling. Best Selling Novel. Solid Female lead on the cusp of “Star Status”. Twisty, adult vibe. It’s all there. But don’t think this is just a clone, this Girl has her own story to tell, if she can just remember what it is. The Girl on the Train tells the story of Rachel Watson (Emily Blunt) a maddening narrator. As the alcoholic whose eyes tell the story and then disappearance of Megan Hipwell (Haley Bennett who is having a big year) we aren’t sure what’s real, and what’s booze filled haze. Rachel becomes part of the mystery: a suspect, an instigator, and maybe even a victim. But with all that in mind – will it bring audiences out? Short answer: Yes. It will win the weekend for sure. But how big is up to the female audience, and whether or not their boyfriends/husbands are convinced it’s sexy/interesting enough to hold their attention. I’m guessing an opening weekend of 29 million (another opener short of 30) with a total of 88 million. It will get you 11-12 Top 5 points and 6 PTA as well as one Golden Globe nomination for Emily Blunt. If those numbers break a little higher it’s definitely worth having on your slate. A little lower, and you’ll kick yourself again for not choosing Sully. (Not that I’ve been doing that all month.)

The Birth of a Nation will not be a breakout hit this weekend. Which is weird to say because 8 months ago that seemed almost like a guarantee. It’s hard to talk about this movie without all the controversy surrounding it now. It burst on the scene when there was the #oscarsowhite controversy way back in January. And then that gave way to the Nate Parker (the director, writer, and star) rape allegations controversy. Beyond that there’s the controversy of #blacklivesmatter and racial justice in our day today. I don’t want to dismiss any of those issues, but in the end this is supposed to be about a movie. Will anyone see it after all that outside noise. The answer there: Some. The story here is of the (true) rebellion of Nat Turner, a preacher in the Southern US who in 1831 went from preaching a message of appeasement and acquiescence to violent rebellion. It’s a powerful message, one told from the Black perspective and unashamedly so. The title itself is a challenge to one of the original American movies, “The Birth of a Nation”, shown in film schools around the world for it’s place in American history – but with a disturbing racial message. When the KKK are the heroes of your story, does your movie still hold up?
Nate Parker wants to tell a different and more confrontational story than is often seen in white American cinema. He certainly achieves that goal, but with so much tension and controversy in society, let alone around this movie, it’s not going to have the impact many of us thought it would 8 months ago. It will open to 16 million on its way to 47 million total. It will only get you 5 Top 5 points and 4 PTA as well. It will also get skunked at the Oscars as the Academy will push their energy and nominations towards Loving, Lion, and Fences instead (All worthy movies with some welcome diversity to them, as well.) It’s a movie worth seeing, but not a movie worth adding to your slates.

Hoping for the Bronze this frame will be Middle School: The Worst Years of My Life. Tween movies are so hard to predict. When they hit – Like Alexander, or Diary of a Wimpy Kid, they get the perfect combo of humor, sweetness, and fun. Personally, I think Middle School has all of that, and is going to be a great movie. But do I think it’s going to be a hit? Sadly, no, no I don’t.
Middle School is (also) based on a best selling book about Rafe Katchadorian (Sounds like the next great British Spy), an inventive and incredibly artistic young boy thrown into a new school of overbearing principals and rules. Rather than conform to this 1984-lite society, Rafe and his new found friends decide to go on a quest to break every single ridiculous rule in the school. To be clear, this is a Middle Schoolers dream come true. Visually this movie looks great, the pranks are very inventive, and the cast is solid. But, for whatever reason, it doesn’t seem to be getting the kind of traction it needs. That could be because 12 year olds are notoriously hard to poll. . . But regardless, tracking on this is quite low. I think (well, I’m hoping cause I’m clearly pulling for this movie) that Middle School will break a little higher than expectations. But not enough to justify the amount of attention I’ve given it here already. It’ll open to 9 million on its way to 25 million total. It’ll get 1 Top 5 point, and since there are no new movies on the PTA front let’s give it 1 of those too. It’ll even get a few MTV Movie awards. If you’ve got a 10-13 year old in the house – check it out. But don’t draft it in the year-long draft. Certainly not in round 11!

That’s all for this week. Again, no Indie darlings to pull in the big PTA numbers (Phantasm: Remastered where are you?) so expect to see some holdovers there. And next week looks pretty dull too, so Girl may hold better than normal. Can it be November yet?

Weekly Predictions:
Girl on a Train - $29 million
Birth of a Nation – $16 million
Miss Peregrine - $13 million
Deepwater - $12 million
Middle School - $9 million

PTA:
Girl
Birth
Denial
American Honey
Middle School


Until next time. . .

[numbersix]

Good article, Walleye. Agree on your Girl on the Train prediction. Won't hit Gone Girl's highs due to the reviews. Maybe might open a little lower.

Think you're too high on Birth, though. The negativity towards Parker as a person is hampering its awards buzz and thus its appeal for some of its potential audience. I'm thinking it'll open closer to 10m and maybe 30 or 35m total. Wish it would be more, as it's on my yearly draft!


1. The Girl on the Train - $26 million
2. Miss Peregrine - $14 million
3. Deepwater Horizon - $11 million
4. The Birth of a Nation – $9 million
5. Middle School - $8 million

[transformers2]

I think it would be a miracle if Birth of a Nation hit $16 million this weekend. The Nate Parker rape story and his disingenuous damage control interviews over the past few weeks has pretty much tarnished any buzz surrounding the movie. I think it's going to do around $9-10 mil and bring in around $30 mil overall.

I agree that Girl on the Train won't quite hit Gone Girl levels, but the popularity of the book and the weak BO field in October makes $100+ mil a real possibility.

1.The Girl on the Train $27 mil ($31 mil 4-day)
2.Miss Pergerine's Home for Peculiar Children $17 mil ($21.5 mil 4-day)
3.Deepwater Horizon $13 mil ($16 mil 4 day)
4.The Magnificent Seven $10 mil ($12 mil 4-day)
5.The Birth of a Nation $9 mil ($11 mil 4-day)

-Middle School $4 mil ($5.5 mil 4-day)

[Ron Burgundy]

good work wallsy.

im also kicking myself for turning down the 'safe' pick of September. Sully.

not to mention denial...

last few years octobers first week has been a bit of a goldmine. not so much this time round. i got no handle what so ever on Girl.

[Shrykespeare]

Great column Wall!


Celebrity Milestone Birthdays:

Seann William Scott turned 40 on 10/3
Susan Sarandon turned 70 on 10/4
Christophe Waltz turned 60 on 10/4
Alicia Silverstone turned 40 on 10/4
Mary Gibbs turned 20 on 10/5
Olivia Thirlby turned 30 on 10/6
Stephanie Zimbalist turns 60 on 10/8
Nick Swardson turns 40 on 10/9



This'll blow your mind.

Mary Gibbs at the time of Monsters Inc.




Mary Gibbs now:

https://pbs.twimg.com/profile_images/55 ... wXhK9.jpeg

[Walleye413]

Birth of a Nation is definitely not going to open strong - But Girl on a Train is. 1 out 2 so far.

And Shryke, love that shot of Susan Sarandon!

[Shrykespeare]

Weekend Estimates

Top 10:
5 points - The Girl on the Train, $24.6M
4 points - Miss Peregrine's Home for Peculiar Children, $15.0M
3 points - Deepwater Horizon, $11.7M
2 points - The Magnificent Seven, $9.1M
1 point - Storks, $8.4M
The Birth of a Nation, $7.1M
Middle School: The Worst Years of my Life, $6.9M
Sully, $5.3M
Masterminds, $4.1M
Queen of Katwe, $1.6M



PTA:
5 points - The Girl on the Train
4 points - Denial
3 points - Miss Peregrine's Home for Peculiar Children
2 points - Deepwater Horizon
1 point - American Honey

[Ron Burgundy]

Denial at 9 PTA!!!

im kicking myself....even six warned us

[Shrykespeare]

Weekend Actuals

Top 10:
5 points - The Girl on the Train, $24.5M
4 points - Miss Peregrine's Home for Peculiar Children, $15.1M
3 points - Deepwater Horizon, $11.5M
2 points - The Magnificent Seven, $9.0M
1 point - Storks, $8.3M
The Birth of a Nation, $7.0M
Middle School: The Worst Years of my Life, $6.9M
Sully, $5.0M
Masterminds, $4.1M
Queen of Katwe, $1.6M



PTA:
5 points - The Girl on the Train, $7,804
4 points - Denial, $7,062
3 points - Miss Peregrine's Home for Peculiar Children, $4,087
2 points - Deepwater Horizon, $3,537
1 point - The Birth of a Nation, $3,327

[BanksIsDaFuture]

Column will be up tonight, prepare for the surprise prediction of the year!

[Ron Burgundy]

what now?