Clint Eastwood's biopic about the life of heroic pilot/prolific goose murderer Sully Sullenberger dropped just 38% from its opening weekend and easily took the top spot at box office with $21.6 mil. Sully's 2nd straight box office crown brought its total gross to a very impressive $70 mil through 10 days of release and a final total of at least $120 mil seems highly likely.
The success of Sully was about the only positive that came out out of last weekend as all three new releases (unwanted horror sequel Blair Witch, even more unwanted quirky British romantic comedy sequel Bridget Jones' Baby and the necessary, but sadly unwanted biopic Snowden) opened to under $10 mil. The collective failure of these new releases resulted in a paltry $74.9 mi haul for the box office's 12 highest grossing films, which made it the second lowest grossing weekend of 2016 so far and led to a 4th straight weekend in which the top 12 films at the box office failed to generate $100 mil in ticket sales. With a pair of huge wide releases in The Magnificent Seven and Storks on the docket, this weekend seems poised to break Hollywood's month-long box office slump.
Wide Releases:
The Magnificent Seven (Sony/Columbia): Westerns don't have a track of setting the box office ablaze in the modern era. The only traditional western that has grossed over $100 mil in the 2010's so far was the Cohen Brothers' True Grit and that film's terrific $171 mil BO haul was largely due to the heavy awards buzz behind it. However, The Magnificent Seven isn't your average western. Antonie Fuqua's remake of the 1960 film, which itself was a remake of the Japanese classic Seven Samurai, boasts a racially-diverse, ensemble cast anchored by superstars Denzel Washington and Chris Pratt, a reported production budget of $100 million and received the type of marketing push and high theater count (approximately 3,600) that are reserved for major studio tentpoles.
With a soft slate of films surrounding it and the early reviews pegging it to be the action-heavy, mass crowd-pleaser the trailers pegged it to be, The Magnificent Seven has the potential to be a behemoth in our fair game. I'm predicting 18 Top 5, 10 PTA, an OW of $51 mil and a final gross around $150 mil. At $25 in ULT and $26 BO, The Magnificent Seven is one of only a handful of films I would declare a must-have for the SEP-NOV season.
Storks (Warner Brothers): The animated debut from Nicolas Stoller (Neighbors, Forgetting Sarah Marshall) cleverly plays with the long-standing myth (?) of babies being delivered by storks. In this film's universe, Storks have transitioned from delivering babies to the world of delivering packages (it's like Amazon except with birds!) However, one last baby has magically appeared at the Storks processing center and, now the top delivery stork (Andy Samberg) and his human co-worker (Katie Crown) must scramble to deliver it without their ruthless boss (Kelsey Grammer) finding out.
Storks could not possibly be released at a better time. The animated marketplace has been relatively barren since The Secret Life of Pets came out at the beginning of July and the family audience is more than ready to sink their teeth into a new film after two months of inactivity. At $17 in ULT and $18 in BO, Storks has the potential to be one of the best value picks of the SEP-November season. I'm thinking it will end up with 11 Top 5, 6 PTA, an OW of $29 mil and a final gross of $105 mil. I personally think Trolls-which will run you $19 in ULT and $20 in BO- is going to do a bit better, but Storks is a still very solid pick for its price in both formats.
Limited Releases:
Queen of Katwe (Disney): Fact-based inspirational sports dramas are one of the most steady subgenres in the film industry. Audiences love to see heartwarming stories of underdogs succeeding against all odds and despite the onslaught of similar-themed films hitting multiplexes every year, it's a movement that's highly unlikely to ever fade away. Disney's The Queen of Katwe applies those classic, feel-good tropes to the invigorating world of.... competitive chess?
All kidding aside, the story of Phiona Mutesi (portrayed in the film by newcomer Madina Nalwanga) is pretty remarkable. Mutesi was able to overcome a childhood plagued by loss and poverty in Uganda to become a Woman Candidate Master (a chess title that my uncultured ass can't fucking understand, but I'm sure it's a prestigious honor) after her strong performance in the 40th Chess Olympiad in 2012. With this title, Mutesi- along with her teammate Ivy Amoko- became the first female players from Uganda to ever win at the Olympiads.
Queen of Katwe picked up a nice boost of momentum as it won second runner-up for the coveted Audience Award at the Toronto Film Festival last weekend, but a theater count of 52 and a solid yet completely unremarkable RT score of 75% is a bit concerning for its PTA chances. However, it should be to pick up at least 3 PTA points in a really thin field before it expands wide next weekend. Queen of Katwe is a pretty good BO option at $3 (I expect it to pull down $5-8 mil during its theatrical run), but given its high theater count and quick expansion plans, it's probably not worth the $5 in ULT, especially with films like Bleed for This and Loving holding better value at the same price tag.
The Dressmaker (Broad Green): Given the presence of widely-lauded actresses Kate Winslet and Judy Davis in the top-billed roles, you would expect The Dressmaker to be a PTA darling, but given its middling criteria reception (currently at 57% on RT) and general lack of buzz surrounding it, that doesn't seem to be the case. The Australian period comedy/drama is being dumped into 37 theaters after a relatively successful run overseas last fall. Carrying a low price tag ($3) and a respectable IMDB rating (7.1), it's not a film that will sink your slate, but there are a slew of other PTA options available this season that have higher upside. I expect it to pick up 2 PTA points before getting swallowed up by the likes of American Honeyand Denial next weekend.
1.The Magnificent Seven $51 mil
2.Storks $29 mil
3.Sully $14 mil
4.Bridget Jones' Baby $5 mil
5.Snowden $4.5 mil
PTA: The Magnificent Seven, Queen of Katwe, Storks, The Dressmaker, Sully
Stay tuned next week as Banks (possibly) returns to break down real-life disaster flick Deepwater Horizon, Tim Burton's latest fantasy quirkfest Miss Peregrine's Home for Peculiar Children, long-delayed ensemble comedy Masterminds and polarizing indie road trip film American Honey starring the beacon of sanity otherwise known as Shia LaBoeuf.
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