Despite being terrible advice, Sony/Screen Gem's blind man horror thriller Don't Breathe easily took 1st place last weekend at the box office, posting a fantastic $26M opening to close out Summer 2016. Riding great reviews, the Stephen Lang-starrer took in almost 3x its production budget in 3 days, joining Sausage Party and The Shallows as the big three money makers for Sony this summer (there was also Ghostbusters, but the less said, the better there). With its opening almost identical to 2013's Evil Dead (from the same director), Don't Breathe is poised to close out around $60M by month's end. Finally falling to second place after four weeks in release, DC's Suicide Squad managed to hold a bit better than usual, dropping only 41% to $12M; its total stands at $283M and $300M is still in play. The other wide opener, The Mechanic: Resurrection, performed as well as any Jason Statham movie of the last 5 years, opening in 5th place with only $7M. Roadside Attractions went wide with Southside With You and The Weinsteins hesitantly dumped boxing drama Hands of Stone - both in roughly 800 theaters and both disappointing to slightly varying degrees.
With Southside With You out of the PTA picture, Jim Halpert's The Hollars easily took top honors, in only 4 theaters with almost a $10K PTA. PTA question marks, Complete Unknown and Mia Madre, also scored points this weekend, 3 and 2, respectively. Holdover Hell or High Water, despite expanding to 900 theaters, managed another single point, bringing its total to 10 PTA points. Combined with its great IMDb (8.3) and rising box office ($9M and counting), Hell or High Water may prove to be one of the best limited picks of the season.
This week's wide releases...
The Light Between Oceans (BV) - Disney, when they're not turning their old cartoons into super-expensive live action films, still makes time to churn out quality, mid-size dramas every once in a while. And The Light Between Oceans is exactly that, as Disney pushes it into 1,500 theaters this weekend (though, the lack of 3D is disturbing). Based on the bestselling 2012 book, the films centers on a lighthouse keeper, Tom (Oscar nominee and Magneto himself, Michael Fassbender), living on the coast of Australia sometime between the World Wars. After failing to start a family with his wife Isabel (Oscar winner Alicia Vikander), the two are surprised to find a baby wash ashore one day, and decide to raise it as their own. Things get complicated when they meet a woman (Oscar winner Rachel Weisz) whose husband and infant daughter were lost at sea around the same time, and Tom and Isabel must decide whether to keep their secret or lose their daughter. The drama will premiere at Venice the day before its wide release, and while it's cast and crew are known for their quality work, it has only mustered mixed reviews so far, with its 57% RT score.
Labor Day weekend typically produces at least one mid-level drama that produces soft Oscar buzz, before being steamrolled by the heavy hitters of November and December by the time nominations roll around. From George Clooney's The American ($13M/$35M) to The Debt ($9M/$31M) to Lawless ($10M/$37M), most dramas debuting on the long weekend put up similar numbers and similar awards nominations (zero). Funny enough, the only Labor Day release to make awards waves was The Constant Gardener, which also starred Rachel Weisz. I'm sure Disney was hoping to buck the trend when they scheduled The Light Between Oceans, and it will...but not in the way they'd hoped. It's improbable that the film reaches the $30M floor of this weekend, though the lack of nods will most likely keep up the status quo.
The Light Between Oceans will open to $7M, pull in 3 Top 5 points, no PTA points, before finishing off with $25M - mirroring Disney's other 2016 period disappointment, The Finest Hours ($10M/$27M). It's not worth its $6 price tag in the Sept-Nov Leagues. You'd be better off with Snowden, or any of the October/November limited release options.
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Morgan (Fox) - Looking to counter program the seriousness above and the general lack of options at this time of the year, Fox is releasing their indie sci-fi thriller, Morgan, into 2,000 theaters (again, no 3D?!). A late addition to the schedule only a few months ago, Morgan is the story of the AI humanoid, aptly named Morgan (played by The Witch's Anya Taylor-Joy), created in a lab and becomes fully functional and indistinguishable from real human in only a matter of months. Things go sideways when Morgan attacks one of her creators in a fit of rage within her lab, causing the company responsible to send in a risk management consultant (Fant4stic Four's Kate Mara) to decide whether Morgan is worth the trouble or will need to be destroyed. It quickly turns into mind games between Morgan and the consultant, as they must try to manipulate each other to survive. Coming from first time director Luke Scott (son of Ridley), the film hasn't been received well so far, only managing a 39% on RT currently.
While sci-fi is as popular as ever (just look how popular Stranger Things has become over the last month), Morgan looks to seep more into the horror element of the genre - focusing more on jump scares and violence rather than exploring the ideas of what is human vs what is artificial. It's the Cousin Eddie to Ex-Machina's Clark Griswold. However, that'll likely benefit the film's box office chances, expected to make half of Ex-Machina's total gross in only it's opening weekend, at least. Horror sells, and if Fox had actually put any muscle into its marketing, Morgan would stand a chance to be a surprising success in a slow time frame. However, they seemed to have written off the $8M it cost to make and take whatever scraps they get. It's not hard to imagine with a full court press in advertising and the cast doing the press rounds and a prime October or March 2017 release date, Morgan could easily do numbers like $24/$55M - but that's not in the cards here.
This won't be Luke Scott's Alien, or even his Prometheus. Morgan will open to $10M, notching 4 Top 5 points, 1 PTA point, while amassing $29M total. For $7 in the Sept-Nov BO Leagues, you could do a lot worse, but if you're hellbent on spending that money somewhere else, look into Kevin Hart: What Now or Ouija 2.
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This week's limited release...
No Manches Frida (LGF) - Three years ago on almost this exact weekend, Lionsgate released Spanish-language family comedy, Instructions Not Included, into 350 theaters and it blew everyone pantalones off. Opening to $10M and closing at north of $40M, the film reminded Hollywood that the Spanish market is ridiculously underserved and they'll show up when given quality, Spanish-language films. Lionsgate started a Spanish division and have been releasing several Spanish films a year, although none have come close to Instructions Not Included. This weekend, they're hoping to capture lightning again with No Manches Frida, from the same production comedy. The film is a more adult comedy in the style of Bad Teacher, just without the awkward sex scenes and Cameron Diaz's plastic surgery. Mexican star Omar Chaparro plays a bank robber recently released from prison who returns to the scene of the crime to find the treasure his crew left there - except the bank is now a high school (*record scratch). Combining Blue Streak with Bad Teacher, he assumes the identity of a substitute teacher and brings some raunch to the boring high school scene, while also falling for a fellow teacher.
Usually, the high theater count (350) would be a problem for a PTA pick, but Lionsgate targets these films to high Spanish population areas, so even if does half as well as Instructions Not Included, that'd still be a PTA of $15K - which would be more than enough to win the weekend. Instructions posted 13 PTA points in September 2013, and No Manches Frida should be good enough for half of that. Well worth the $3 in Sept-Nov Ult Leagues.
The Fall Season's Coming In Like A Helluva Lamb This Weekend:
1. Don't Breathe - $14M
2. Morgan - $10M
3. Suicide Squad - $7.5M
4. The Light Between Oceans - $7M
5. Kubo & The Two Strings - $5M
PTA: No Manches Frida, Don't Breathe, The Hollars, Complete Unknown, Morgan
Next week, the real fall season begins, as Tom Hanks plays another real-life Everyman Hero in Sully. Urban sex thriller When The Bough Breaks and low budget animated kids movie The Wild Life are also in wide release, while we'll also have the limited release WWII drama Come What May.
See you guys in a few weeks!
