SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE - FILMS OF 8/12

[numbersix]

Last weekend saw another movie record being smashed, with Suicide Squad boasting the largest August opening weekend of all time. While $133m may be cause for celebration, the awful reviews and poor word-of-mouth likens it to it being another Batman V Superman, another DC adaptation that opened high and dropped hard.

While we all knew Suicide Squad would earn big bucks last weekend, this next batch of flicks is much harder to gauge. ...



Disney are on an all-time high these days, with their Marvel and Star Wars franchises hovering up cash for around the globe. And they’re keen to make their other properties work too, hence the reboot of their twee 1977 film Pete’s Dragon. In this version, a forest ranger (Bryce Dallas Howard) finds a young boy (Oakes Fegley)who claims to live in the forest with his dragon. Supporting cast include Robert Redford, Wes Bentley, and Karl Urban.

This has to be one of the hardest films to predict. On the one hand it’s a big, magical fantasy movie, full of wonder. It’s being pushed by a hugely successful and powerful distributor. Yet so did Tomorrowland, and that performed well under expectations despite good-will from the impressive trailers. Likewise, last month saw Spielberg’s The BFG bomb with a paltry $52m. Releasing a film during mid-August can often been a risk and director David Lowry is known for his more subdued indie drama rather than large-scale mainstream hits. The only two saving graces for the film’s potential are its good reviews (86% on RT) and the lack of substantial competition for the next few weeks, which could ensure a strong hold despite a weak opening. Sure, there’s Kubo and Wild Life, but it will only be Storks that has the clout to win over families in the same way.

So, down to the numbers. In Ultimate Pete’s Dragon is going to cost you $13 in R6, $17 in R7, and $19 in R8. For that you’re going to get 8-9 Top 5 points, 4 PTA points, a cume of about $85m, and a reasonable IMDB score. That’s not bad, but will these numbers top films like The Girl on the Train, Storks, The Accountant or Sully? It’s a tough call but I am very wary of it. In BO leagues it’ll cost you $13, $17, or $18 bucks, so you’re going to need it to hit $100m to make it worthwhile. It’s possible, but I wouldn’t count on it.




Next up is yet another wild card. There have been a lot of animations out this year, but not like this. Sausage Party (Sony/Columbia) is actually not for the kiddies. Instead, it’s come from the stoned minds of Seth Rogen, Evan Goldberg, and their collaborators. It’s about a bunch of grocery store food items whole live and breathe, and realise they’re going to be masticated and consumed once they’re brought home. With this in mind, the sausages and their bread-roll companions rally together to warn fellow vegetables about their fate. I wonder what they were smoking when they came up with this one.

Adult-oriented animation hasn’t really been tried out as of late (outside of arthouse movies), although those high on the film (and on other things) could liken it to R-Rated films like Ted and its sequel, as well as aim for the kind of audience who dug drug films like Pineapple Express and This is the End. However, its release date as well as it being purely animation makes me think it won’t fare as well, despite a strong cast and great reviews. With that said, WOM has been positive since the SXSW test screening, and tracking is looking impressive so perhaps there is a cookie-craving audience for films like this.

So, despite my reservations I’m going to say this opens to around $20m and earn around $55m in total, nabbing around 4 T5 points, 2 PTA points, and a moderate IMDB score. In Ultimate it’s going to set you back either $11 or $12, and honestly I’m not sure if it’s worth it. Films like Bridget Jones Baby, Sully, and When the Bough Breaks could beat most of those stats, and are similarly priced. Same goes for its BO pricing ($11/$10/$12).




Wow, I’m not exactly making you enthusiastic about this week’s picks, am I? And guess what, I’m even less keen on Florence Foster Jenkins (Paramount). It’s the new Meryl Streep film, inspired by a true story about a high-society women who aspires to sing opera despite having a terrible voice. She’s humoured by her husband (Hugh Grant) and pianist (The Big Bang Theory’s Simon Helberg) who try to convince friends and colleagues to endure her warbling.

Okay, this isn’t my kind of film, but it will be somebody’s. Female audiences are traditionally neglected, although this summer they had Ghostbusters and Bad Moms to enjoy. But this film will appeal to an older audience, who are even more neglected. It’s a shame they tend not to flock to opening weekends, though. The film has been performing well abroad, particularly in the UK and Australia, and it has little competition for quite some time. Plus, the reviews (which influence older groups more than anything else) are quite positive.

It’ll open to about $8m but hold well and hit $35m or so, but only earn you 1 Top 5 point, and zero PTA points. Which makes it a bad Ultimate pick even for its $6-8 pricetag. However, it could be a nice slate-filler in BO, as it only costs $7 max.

Now for the limited releases...





Hell or High Water (Lionsgate) – here’s a film that sprung from nowhere. Director David McKenzie has had a long career of some very British films that don’t really break out, yet he has taken on a Black List script (from the writer of Sicario) and nabbed Jeff Bridges, Chris Pine, and Ben Foster for its cast. It deals with a Texas ranger who is after two brothers who robbed a bank to save their farm from foreclosure. Since its screening in Cannes it has ranked high on the indie buzz list, and considering the cast, reviews, and No Country for Old Men vibe, I think this is going to be the limited film of the season.

It’s opening in 30 theatres, which is normally high but considering the competition it’s going to do well regardless, and it will slowly expand across the month. Expect at least 10 PTA points from it and a high IMDB score. For $4 it is a must. If the film performs well it could even go wide, and may just be worth its $3 BO price tag too, although that’s less certain.



Anthropoid (Bleecker Street) – this film has less potential. In theory it could have been a nice little earner, being based on a true WWII tale of an attempted assassination of a high-ranking SS officer in Czechoslavia. It stars 50 Shades of Grey lead Jamie Dornan, and Cillian Murphy. However, the poor reviews and high theatre count (300) kill it, and it’s unlikely we’ll see any PTA points out of this one. It’s $1 BO tag may be worth a punt if you have a gap, but I’d be surprised if it earned much past the $2m mark. Avoid.


My predictions for the weekend

1. Suicide Squad - $50M
2. Pete’s Dragon - $28M
3. Sausage Party - $21M
4. Jason Bourne - $10M
5. Florence Foster Jenkins - $8m

PTA: Hell or High Water, Suicide Squad, Pete’s Dragon, Equity, Sausage Party

Next week we’ll take a look at three more, and slightly less exciting, wide releases, namely historical epic remake Ben-Hur, arms-dealing satire War Dogs, and stop-motion fantasy Kubo and the Two Strings, as well as limited release Morris From America and Mia Madre.

[W]

Most of my ultimate slates need an Anthropiod. I don't feel there's enough small films with PTA potential, but this one gives you a peek at its IMDb score and it's not going to be awful. Most of the time I think it's better to take the extra IMDb point than find that 6.5 rating that might give you a PTA point or two.

Typically I like to have a strong five or six rather plus two or three Anthropoids than spreading it out over eight. That's why I took Anthropoid and Eagle Huntress this round.

[numbersix]

Bear in mind that it has only 205 votes, which could easily be a combo of cast and crew, as well as people who saw it in Karlovy Vary (who are going to be biased as the film is about a part of Czech history). Its theatre count int he US, plus the UK release next week, will ensure a few hundred more votes, and by then it could easily hit the low sixes.

[W]

Even if it does, it'll only be a couple/few hundred votes that'll push it at worst a full point down instead of a half point down. If it goes from two hundred to two thousand, I could see it... but that's not happening.

[Shrykespeare]

Celebrity birthdays (catching up):

Sam Worthington turned 40 on 8/2
Maureen McCormick turned 60 on 8/5
Soleil Moon Frye turned 40 on 8/6

Marcia Brady is 60? Punky Brewster is 40?? Shit, I am OLD.....

Richard Anderson turned 90 on 9/8
Rhona Mitra turned 40 on 9/9
Audrey Tautou turned 40 on 9/9

Bruce Greenwood turns 60 on 9/12
Susan Saint James turns 70 on 9/14
Halle Berry turns 50 on 9/14

[Shrykespeare]

You have Pete's Dragon at only $9M cume, Six? I think you're missing a digit....

[BanksIsDaFuture]

Great thoughts, Six. Sucks that Hell or High Water is in so many theaters, but still should be good for 3-4 points this weekend, depending on how well Sausage Party does.

1. Suicide Squad - $46M
2. Sausage Party - $23M
3. Pete's Dragon - $19M
4. Jason Bourne - $13M
5. Bad Moms - $8M
-Florence Foster Jenkins - $6M

[numbersix]

You have Pete's Dragon at only $9M cume, Six? I think you're missing a digit....

Well spotted. These articles take up so much time (I feel your pain, Banks), that I didn't proof this one much.

[Chienfantome]

I'm pretty sure everyone being conservative about Pete's Dragon potential. It will open higher than $30M, easily.

[transformers2]

I wouldn't be surprised if Pete's Dragon exceeded $30 mil this weekend, but I feel like $25 mil or so is more realistic. Sausage Party should be able to do $20+mil as well simply because of how insane/unique the concept is. Very intrigued to see how this battle for the #2 spot at the box office pans out.

[BanksIsDaFuture]

Sausage Party had a better Thursday preview than both Neighbors, Ted 2, and Trainwreck.

If the WOM holds up, it could be looking more at a $35M+ opening.

[Shrykespeare]

Friday estimates:

Sausage Party, $13.5M
Suicide Squad, $13.3M
Pete's Dragon, $7.0M
Jason Bourne, $3.9M
Bad Moms, $3.6M
Secret Life of Pets, $2.5M
Florence Foster Jenkins, $2.1M
Star Trek Beyond, $1.8M
Nine Lives, $1.1M


Weekend Projections:

Suicide Squad, $44M
Sausage Party, $33M
Pete's Dragon, $19.5M
Jason Bourne, $13.2M
Bad Moms, $11.2M
Secret Life of Pets, $8.7M
Star Trek Beyond, $7M
Florence Foster Jenkins, $6.1M
Nine Lives, $3.3M
Lights Out, $3M



PTA:

Hell or High Water, $20K
Sausage Party, $10.6K
Suicide Squad, $10.3K
Pete's Dragon, $5.2K

[undeadmonkey]

Those are some crazy numbers

[silversurfer19]

Not surprised by those Pete's Dragon numbers at all. Family live action seems to have taken a real hit this summer, with this following on from The BFG, Alice, TMNT and Warcraft. Only a couple have escaped the run of poor performances, notably Tarzan, otherwise families seem to be sticking with animation over the summer.

[Chienfantome]

It's crazy. I'm so glad Sausage Party is doing such numbers because then maybe the french distrib will change its mind and release it in theaters and not straight to DVD as it is planned right now... but those Pete's Dragon numbers are so disappointing.
Boy I'm gonna have to struggle to stay in Division A this year...