TAKE IT TO THE BANKS: THE FILMS OF 7/27, 7/29

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TAKE IT TO THE BANKS: THE FILMS OF 7/27, 7/29

Post by BanksIsDaFuture »

Star Trek Beyond couldn't quite live up to its moniker this weekend....

The third Star Trek film in the new, rebooted series that started back in 2009 posted the worst opening of the trio, debuting to $59M this weekend. Usually, that'd be a disaster, with cries of "reboot! again!" coming from the rafters, but seeing as how Star Trek Beyond was tracking to a much lower opening weekend, Paramount will be happy that it came this close to Star Trek (2009) and Star Trek Into Darkness. If it performs like its predecessors, a total of $190M+ is in the cards, paving the way for a 4th Star Trek that's rumored to be a prequel. WB's horror flick, Lights Out, outdid its meager expectations, notching $21M in it's first 3 days and making back 4x its production budget already. From first time director David F. Sandberg and adapted from Sandberg's wildly popular short of the same name, a sequel announcement for Lights Out is wholly inevitable and joins The Conjuring, with its sequels and spinoffs, to hold up WB's recent horror success. On the other hand, Fox rolled out the 5th installment of their long-in-the-tooth Blue Sky Ice Age franchise, Collision Course, to little fanfare among the family audiences. It came in 4th place, barely beat out by Lights Out with its own $21M - only half of the last Ice Age's opening, which was a series low in itself.

On the PTA front, Woody Allen's Cafe Society continued its dominance, once again posting a winning 5 points in its 2nd weekend. However, it'll have to settle for 10 PTA points as it's scheduled to go wide enough to miss out on anymore points this season. The top 3 wide releases took up the middle of the PTA pack and Fox Searchlight's film adaptation of the British series Absolutely Fabulous had to make due with a lone point.


This weekend's wide releases...

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Jason Bourne (Universal) - Rising from the ashes of his thought-finished franchise, Matt Damon returns to his most famous character for a fourth go-around in the last 14 years. Universal will be free-running the lazily titled Jason Bourne into a little over 4,000 theaters this weekend, with hopes to erase audiences' memories of the Matt Damon-free Bourne Legacy (which shouldn't prove too difficult). After years of terrorizing bland Eastern European baddies (way before Liam Neeson drove it into the ground) and making anonymous phone calls into FBI surveillance centers, Jason Bourne has finally remembered how he is and how he became the super-spy he's been for the last decade and a half - and he's not happy about it. Teaming up with his presumed dead girlfriend Nicky (a returning Julia Stiles), Bourne goes on a mission for redemption and revenge against the people who lied to him to convince him to go into the CIA in the first place.Joining Damon for this go-round is Tommy Lee Jones, Nightcrawler's Riz Ahmed, and recent Oscar winner Alicia Vikander; Jason Bourne currently sits at a prerelease 63% on RT, decent for the franchise, but a far cry from Ultimatum's 93%.

This summer has been marred by underwhelming sequels, and it appears that Jason Bourne will find itself the same fate as pre-release buzz has been subdued, at best, non-existent at worst. The Bourne franchise was a barn burner, both at the box office and critically - each installment topped the last, culminating in The Bourne Ultimatum's $69M/$227 in August 2007. After director Paul Greengrass and Damon decided the story was done, Universal figured the series was beloved enough to survive their departures; 2012's The Bourne Legacy brought in Jeremy Renner, but posted a series-worst $38M/$113M. Ironically enough, by this point, Universal would be happy with Legacy numbers with this sequel, as Matt Damon had mostly moved onto dramatic roles with hits like We Bought A Zoo, The Coens' True Grit, and last year's Oscar-nominated The Martian. Similarly to almost every disappointing sequel this year, Jason Bourne brings nothing different or new to the series - its trailer could literally be a supercut of previous Bourne scenes and nobody would know the difference.

It seems that audiences are pretty much over the Bourne movies, as just the mere presence of Matt Damon isn't enough to plunk down money for a copy of a copy of the superior trilogy. Even last summer's Mission Impossible: Rogue Nation ($55M/$195M) experienced a drop off from its 4th installment as it too simply brought Tom Cruise back for another bland-looking jaunt through the motions. Jason Bourne should see a similar opening, but nowhere near as long of legs, as DC's Suicide Squad is posed to destroy all competition next weekend and throughout August.

Jason Bourne will open to $52M, posting 15 Top 5 points, 8 PTA points, while topping out right around $143M. It runs $29 in July-Sept BO Leagues, which is a bit too steep for my liking. However, if you still need a 2nd option to complement your inevitable Suicide Squad anchor, you really don't have a choice at this point, unless you believe a combination of mid-size choice has a better chance, such as Magnificent Seven+Sausage Party+Don't Breathe.


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Bad Moms (STX) - Following in the vein of such creatively-bankrupt raunchy comedies, such as Bad Teacher, Bad Santa, Bad Grandpa, it was really only a matter of time when Hollywood tried their hand at making exhausted, suburban soccer moms hilarious in their unexpected cursing and unwanted come-ons. Upstart distributor STX Entertainment is looking for their second hit in as many summers (after last July's The Gift), as they'll be minivan cruising Bad Moms into over 3,200 theaters. Finally fed up with having to balance a demanding career, her children's various activities and events, and the lofted expectations to be perfect from the PTA, single mother of two Amy (Mila Kunis) decides that enough is enough and goes all out in not giving a shit about being the "perfect" mom. Her wild antics attract two other moms, wildcard Carla (Kathryn Hahn) and repressed Kiki (Kristen Bell), to join Amy in taking down the inner sanctum of the PTA, led by uber-Mom Gwendolyn (Christina Applegate). Being withheld from critics is rarely a new tactic for raunchy comedies, but it's still never a great sign, especially for STX. Bad Moms also co-stars Jada Pinkett Smith, Clark Duke, and Southpaw's Oona Laurence.

While obviously STX is hoping to cash in Bad Teacher-style with this late summer women-gone-wild fest, Bad Moms look to be on the tamer side of the spectrum, much more Sex Tape ($14M/$38M) than Trainwreck ($30M/$110M). Of course, the shining beacon in this genre is 2011's Bridesmaids ($26M/$169M), but we won't be seeing any triple digits in Bad Moms' future anytime soon. Mila Kunis' biggest lead role to date was the rom-com Friends With Benefits ($18M/$55M), which was released on almost the exact same weekend five years ago.

The "(blank) gone wild" genre has been done to death, and while there's always room for a film to defy expectations with pure comedic quality, Bad Moms marketing pushes the film very softly - one could think the film is PG-13 if it weren't for the forced red band trailer STX smartly released first. I wouldn't be surprised to think the movie was initially shot as a PG-13, but underwent reshoots to beef up the raunch: the "Deadpool-ification", if you will. Just compare Bad Teacher's red band trailer to Bad Moms', you won't see Mila Kunis casually tossing off anal sex references there.

Bad Moms will open to $18M, grabbing 3 Top 5 points, no PTA points, before topping out around the $45M mark by late August. For $10 in July-Sept BO Leagues, four weeks of Sully, or two months of Sausage Party are likely safer bets. It's not a horrible choice, but it won't make or break any of your slates at all.


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Nerve (Lionsgate) - Hoping to jump on the weekend's double whammy of Bourne and Bad Bassinets, Lionsgate is hard targeting the Snapchat crowd with their flashy, neon-tinted Nerve, blindfolded motorcycling it into 2,500 on Wednesday. Starring two of Hollywood's most famous young related-to-bigger-stars actors in Dave Franco and Emma Roberts, the titular Nerve is an online real-time social Truth or Dare, minus the Truth option. Watchers pay to watch bigger and bigger dares, and Players get paid to risk embarrassment, and later life and limb, for riches and social media fame. Wallflower high school senior Vee (Roberts) wants no part of the game until she's chided into jumping headfirst into the Player pool as a form of rebellion to her ho-hum life. She's soon partnered with the mysterious Ian (Franco) in the game, slowly falling for each other before the Dares become bigger and bigger until they run the risk of ruining both of their lives. Filled to the gills with YouTube-like comments and Insta-Fame (going full meta, directors Joost and Schulman casts various Viners and YouTube stars in bit roles), Nerve is surprisingly enjoying a positive critical reception. It's 60% on RT is nothing to write home about, but it gives those crusty old "critics" some credibility to judge the film on its merits and not just go full "Clint in Gran Torino" on Nerve.

Aiming their films almost exclusively at the teens and 20-somethings that have spent the last two weeks catching digital Pokemon in their spare time is a great risk for Lionsgate - they've flamed out with this kind of genre-specific film before; their 2009 action film Gamer ($9M/$20M) tried to capitalize on the FPS/Call of Duty craze and couldn't connect the dots. Nerve looks to skip this disconnect by actually releasing a product worthy of putting down the iPhones for at least 90 minutes. It's a decent enough thriller, bathed in snarky Tweets and that damn flower crown Snapchat filter. It's extensive young-skewing marketing scheme will inevitably turn off anyone old enough to have seen Space Jam in theaters, but its low budget will make it a success (and the inevitable real-life version of Nerve will undoubtedly help the film move the needle a bit). However, opening against soccer moms and a tired action franchise old enough to pre-date the invention of Facebook is a great move for Lionsgate, and the film should enjoy its own successes before Suicide Squad.

Nerve will open to $12M ($16M 5-day), notching a lone Top 5 point, zero PTA points, and amassing a box office total north of $28M at the end of its run. Its price of only $6 in July-Sept BO Leagues makes it a great afterthought when you find yourself with a couple of extra bucks at the end of your slate; it's only worthy competition would be Snowden or the opening weekend of Deepwater Horizon.



This weekend's limited releases....

Indignation (Roadside Attractions) - At 73% RT, the period romance film Indignation doesn't have the strong critical reception that makes these type of films PTA juggernauts. Starring The Perks of Being A Wallflower's Logan Lerman, the film centers on a young Jewish student in 1951 Ohio as he tries to come to terms with his religion, his sexuality, and the growing pains of adulthood in general. Opening at this year's Sundance, it enjoyed generally positive WOM, if a bit underwhelming.

Roadside will be opening Indignation in an undisclosed single-digit number of theaters in NY and LA this weekend - they've had success with this tactic already this year, mostly with their surprise hit Love & Friendship this May (6 PTA points before taking in $13M in wider release). The lack of competition and Midwestern, period setting should be enough for it to snag a fair share of points, especially with no new limiteds next weekend.

3 PTA points OW, 6 total.



Equity (Sony Classics) - Sony Classics looks to take on Wall Street, but from a women's perspective with their Equity, opening in 4 theaters this weekend. Starring Breaking Bad's Anna Gunn, Equity is the story of Naomi Bishop, a serious investment banker who accidentally uncovers a huge coverup within her industry and struggles to maintain her ethics, while also dealing with male bosses and all the implications that come with that.

Equity is apparently the first banking/Wall Street film with a female protagonist, and its 73% RT and nomination for the Grand Jury Prize at this year's Sundance suggest it may be a surprise this weekend. Sony Classics has yet to have a breakout PTA hit this year, as they've been quick to push their limiteds into too many theaters for our purposes (see: I Saw The Light, Miles Ahead). It's worrisome that the same fate awaits Equity, especially if it stirs more interest than expected in limited release.

2 PTA points this weekend, 6 total.



The Land (IFC) - Starring rapper Machine Gun Kelly and his friends mostly, The Land is an urban piece centering around a group of friends who stumble upon a goldmine of illegal drugs and their exploits taking them for themselves. It's like Dope, but without the intelligence or humor. Urban films almost never do well in limited release, even if those two theaters IFC is pushing The Land into just happen to be in Cleveland. It has an outside shot at a lone point, but even that is unlikely.



The Weekend of July 29th-July 31st:

1. Jason Bourne - $52M
2. Star Trek Beyond - $28M
3. The Secret Life of Pets - $19M
4. Bad Moms - $18M
5. Nerve - $12M

PTA: Jason Bourne, Star Trek Beyond, Indignation, Equity, Cafe Society

Next week, the biggest non-Disney movie of the summer comes to town, as Suicide Squad rides into theaters ready to redeem the dour disaster that was Batman vs. Superman earlier this year. Counter programming gives us the odd children's live-action Kevin Spacey body switch title Nine Lives, while we won't have any new PTA hopefuls at all.
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Re: TAKE IT TO THE BANKS: THE FILMS OF 7/27, 7/29

Post by numbersix »

Good to have you back, Banks!

Agreed on Bourne, but I'm not sure it will have legs. Think Suicide Squad will take all its audience besides older men, so I see a 50m opening but only a cume of about 125m. Bad timing.

Less agreed on Bad Moms. Tracking has been strong on this one, and it will cater to gangs of women looking for a laugh (Ghostbusters played more like a family film). Think it'll open a little higher and hold quite well.

And I think Nerve will be a bit of a bomb, though its midnights were solid so $20m in total isn't off the cards.

I don't see a huge amount of potential for the limited films, although I'd be surprised if Equity and Indignation didn't get something!

1. Jason Bourne - $50M
2. Star Trek Beyond - $27M
3. Bad Moms - $22M
4. The Secret Life of Pets - $18M
5. Ice Age 5 - $10M

PTA: Jason Bourne, Equity, Indignation, Star Trek Beyond, The Land

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Re: TAKE IT TO THE BANKS: THE FILMS OF 7/27, 7/29

Post by Walleye413 »

I'm torn on the 2 wide releases. I've got a few buddies who are pumped about Bourne and are going this weekend for sure. And I've seen a number of moms on FB talking about date nights out to Bad Moms. But will it translate into actual dollars for either one? I think Bad Moms is going to have the longer legs, if it's at all funny. Suicide Squad will appeal to that crowd way less than the Bourne crowd.

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Re: TAKE IT TO THE BANKS: THE FILMS OF 7/27, 7/29

Post by Brockster »

Let's just take a moment to reflect on how hot Mila Kunis is. She's still my #1 :!:

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Re: TAKE IT TO THE BANKS: THE FILMS OF 7/27, 7/29

Post by transformers2 »

Brockster wrote:Let's just take a moment to reflect on how hot Mila Kunis is. She's still my #1 :!:
She's definitely attractive, but I think she's kind of overrated on the whole.
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Re: TAKE IT TO THE BANKS: THE FILMS OF 7/27, 7/29

Post by Walleye413 »

That's just cause you're sporting Vikander as your profile pic :)

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Re: TAKE IT TO THE BANKS: THE FILMS OF 7/27, 7/29

Post by BanksIsDaFuture »

Brockster wrote:Let's just take a moment to reflect on how hot Mila Kunis is. She's still my #1 :!:
She's still hot, but she's a mom now. I'll take her young replacement, Sarah Hyland.
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Re: TAKE IT TO THE BANKS: THE FILMS OF 7/27, 7/29

Post by Shrykespeare »

Celebrity birthdays:

Michael Biehn turns 60 on 7/31
Dean Cain turns 50 on 7/31



Friday:

Jason Bourne, $22.7M
Bad Moms, $9.6M
Star Trek Beyond, $6.7M
Secret Life of Pets, $5.5M
Lights Out, $3.5M
Ice Age, $3.2M
Nerve, $3.2M
Ghostbusters, $2.9M
Finding Dory, $1.2M



Weekend projections

Jason Bourne, $60M (wow)
Bad Moms, $26.5M
Star Trek Beyond, $24M
Secret Life of Pets, $18.8M
Ice Age, $10.7M
Nerve, $9.9M
Ghostbusters, $9.8M
Lights Out, $9.7M
Finding Dory, 4.3M
Legend of Tarzan, $2.5M


PTA:
Jason Bourne, $15K
Bad Moms, $8K
Star Trek, $6K
Secret Life, $5K
Cafe Society, $4K
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Re: TAKE IT TO THE BANKS: THE FILMS OF 7/27, 7/29

Post by Shrykespeare »

Weekend estimates:

5 points - Jason Bourne, $60M
4 points - Star Trek Beyond, $24M
3 points = Bad Moms, $23.4M
2 points - The Secret Life of Pets, $18.2M
1 points - Lights Out, $10.8M
Ice Age: Collision Course, $10.5M
Ghostbusters, $9.8M
Nerve, $9M
Finding Dory, 4.2M
Legend of Tarzan, $2.4M


PTA:
5 points - Indignation
4 points - Equity
3 points - Jason Bourne
2 points - Bad Moms
1 point - Star Trek Beyond

The Land just barely missed.
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Re: TAKE IT TO THE BANKS: THE FILMS OF 7/27, 7/29

Post by Chienfantome »

I didn't think Bourne would do That good. And i never thought Ica Age would do That bad. I knew it was'nt worth it, but That bad ?
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Re: TAKE IT TO THE BANKS: THE FILMS OF 7/27, 7/29

Post by Walleye413 »

So Bourne and Star Trek did basically the same thing. Is one a hit and one a disappointment? Always interesting to see the spin on these.

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Re: TAKE IT TO THE BANKS: THE FILMS OF 7/27, 7/29

Post by Spectre »

Walleye413 wrote:So Bourne and Star Trek did basically the same thing. Is one a hit and one a disappointment? Always interesting to see the spin on these.
Depends on the legs. I think Bourne makes more than STB. I think people are looking at Trek as a bust because that's 3 straight decreases for the franchise whereas with Bourne, coming off the disaster that was Legacy, people are looking at this as a positive.

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Re: TAKE IT TO THE BANKS: THE FILMS OF 7/27, 7/29

Post by Brockster »

She's still hot, but she's a mom now
I find her hotter based on this :)
Last edited by Brockster on August 1st, 2016, 7:10 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: TAKE IT TO THE BANKS: THE FILMS OF 7/27, 7/29

Post by W »

To me Bourne Legacy was more like a spinoff than sequel. Star Trek Beyond is definitely a sequel. So I don't think they're too comparable. Kinda like saying Penguins didn't do well, so Madagascar better watch out. And not even that because Jeremy Renner's character was never in the original Bourne trilogy.
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Re: TAKE IT TO THE BANKS: THE FILMS OF 7/27, 7/29

Post by Shrykespeare »

Weekend actuals:

5 points - Jason Bourne, $59.2M
4 points - Star Trek Beyond, $24.8M
3 points = Bad Moms, $23.8M
2 points - The Secret Life of Pets, $18.9M
1 points - Ice Age: Collision Course, $11.0M
Lights Out, $10.8M
Ghostbusters, $10.1M
Nerve, $9.4M
Finding Dory, $4.3M
Legend of Tarzan, $2.5M


PTA:
5 points - Indignation, $23,281
4 points - Equity, $20,609
3 points - Jason Bourne, $14,708
2 points - The Land, $8,979
1 point - Bad Moms, $7,408



Banks, you got next week?
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