SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 3/26

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SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 3/26

Post by Shrykespeare »

What a month for the Burton/Depp dynasty. Three straight weeks of box office victory and a total output of what I’m betting will be damn close to $300 million for Alice in Wonderland by end of business this Sunday. Is it just me, or does it seem like America is LIVING at the movies these last few months? And if so, what does that bode for the upcoming summer season? I would have thought that there was nothing coming in May, June or July that could possibly top the output of Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen, but now I’m not entirely sure.

Round One of the Super Leagues will be ending this Sunday, and the very first cuts of the year will be made. If you are reading this, and you are a participant, check your e-mails. I will be sending out passwords on Monday to those contestants who are in no danger of being cut, while those who are “on the bubble” will have to wait until Tuesday. If you are cut in Round One of any tournament, your slates will be removed from all future rounds. And now, on with the films of March 26th!

Most would agree that Pixar has established itself as the #1 studio in the world when it comes to putting out animated films that excel in not only amazing animation but terrific stories… one need only look at its hit ratio (100%) as well as all of its accolades and awards for proof of that. Most would also agree that if they had to pick the #2 studio for animated films, it would definitely be DreamWorks.

Though their track record isn’t perfect, DreamWorks has been on a pretty good roll recently. After stumbling with the ill-received Shrek the Third and the woeful Bee Movie in 2007, they’ve rebounded with two very good outings: Kung Fu Panda (the sequel for which should be out next year) and last year’s Monsters vs. Aliens. I am hoping that they can keep the ball rolling with their next 3D extravaganza, How to Train Your Dragon.

The first of three DreamWorks films this year (Shrek Forever After bows in about two months, and Megamind this fall), How to Train Your Dragon is loosely based on a book by British author Cressida Cowell. The story centers on a young Viking named Hiccup (Jay Baruchel), who is not your typical Viking, possessing far more brains than brawn. But he still wants to find his place in his fierce society of dragon hunters. For yes, his particular village is beset by the mythic fire-breathing beasties, and their respective species have been at war for seemingly ages.

Not possessing the physical prowess for combat, Hiccup invents a machine to snag a dragon right out of the air, and does so. But when he encounters the fallen creature, he finds himself unable to slay the creature. And thus a friendship is born, between Hiccup and a young dragon that he dubs “Toothless”. This, of course, does not go over with the old-school chieftain of the village (Gerard Butler), who happens to be Hiccup’s father. From then, I imagine the film takes a very action/adventurous turn, as Hiccup must find a way to prevent the war from escalating to the point where one side or the other may be totally decimated. Jonah Hill, Christopher Mintz-Plasse (McLovin!) and America Ferrera also lend their voice talents.

Monsters vs. Aliens wasn’t as big a worldwide hit as Kung Fu Panda or any of the Shrek movies, but it still made nearly $200 million in the U.S., and I expect at least $180 million out of How to Train Your Dragon. It will still have to contend with the huge hit that Alice in Wonderland has become, true, even though it will be taking that film’s place at many of the country’s 3D theaters. Plus, with the possible exception of Clash of the Titans, there really isn’t anything truly kid-friendly coming out much of April, and animated movies tend to have very good legs more often than not.

After a full year since DreamWorks’ last film, it will be a little unusual to have two huge films coming out so close together. So though Dragon may just be the appetizer, I expect it to pull its weight. It should easily win its opening weekend, with I guessing around $52 million. I think it will earn twelve Top 5 points, five PTA and a terrific User Rating, perhaps around 8.0. If the stellar reviews for this film over at RT are an indication (8/8 positive), it will be very well-received, assuming that its ad campaign does its job. For $28 in Ultimate ($31 in Box Office), if you didn’t snap up Alice in Wonderland, I’d pick this one. Either that, or be forced to completely back-load your slate with May movies.

Up next is Hot Tub Time Machine, a raunchy R-rated comedy from MGM. It centers on three best friends whose lives have… well, not gone the way they planned. Adam (John Cusack) has just been dumped by his girlfriend; Lou (Rob Corddry) has become that “old guy at the party who isn’t half as cool as he thinks he used to be”; and Nick (Craig Robinson) has a wife who henpecks him almost to death. The trio, along with Adam’s video-game-obsessed nephew Jacob (Clark Duke), decide to give themselves some away time, and head up to a ski resort to relax and reminisce. However, after a night of (REALLY) heavy drinking in a hot tub, the group awake to find themselves in 1986. (Don’t’cha just hate when that happens?)

Looking in the mirror, the three older men realize they are now trapped in the bodies of their younger selves (except Jacob, who hasn’t been born yet… wanna bet one of the guys turns out to be his father?), and they decide to use their knowledge of future events to make their lives better this time around. Damn, where’s Doc Brown when you need him?

The few reviews I’ve read (all positive), surprisingly, paint Hot Tub Time Machine as a very funny, viable adult comedy. They also say it’s well-written and well-directed, so kudos to director Steve Pink (who also directed Accepted, one of my favorite comedies in recent years). I think this film has the moxie to become, in order, a surprise hit and a cult classic. There’s tons of foul language, some drug use and some nudity, but hey, that didn’t stop The Hangover from becoming the runaway comedy freight train of 2009.

Now, I’m not saying Hot Tub Time Machine will do THAT well, but it should do all right (despite an appearance by comedy kryptonite Chevy Chase), I predict an OW of $24 million ($60 million overall), along with eight Top 5 points, two PTA and a User Rating around 7.1. I think it’s very well priced at $10 in Ultimate ($13 in Box Office), and even though Tyler Perry’s latest comedy bows in only one week, it should hold fairly well in coming weeks.

And now, a little bit about the five (yes, FIVE) limited release films opening this Friday. Sadly, I do not know what sort of theater counts any of them will be getting, and it’s tough to gauge their PTA chances without that information. Therefore, pay close attention in the coming days if you are really interested in any of these titles – Box Office Mojo usually announces theater counts on Thursday afternoons.

Chloe ($6 Ult, $3 BO) – This erotic thriller is the latest from acclaimed director Atom Egoyan (The Sweet Hereafter, Adoration) and is based on the French film Nathalie… It stars Julianne Moore as Catherine, a doctor who hires a prostitute named Chloe (Amanda Seyfried) to seduce her husband David (Liam Neeson), who she suspects of cheating. But things, as they do in erotic thrillers like this, go horribly awry when Chloe decides to exploit her relationship with both of them to her own sordid advantage.

Professional reviews for Chloe are decidedly mixed (eight good, eight bad at RT), but it has a decent User Rating at IMDb (7.3 with nearly 600 votes). Atom Egoyan’s reputation may well be enough to cement a few almost certain PTA points, but $6 is quite a lot to gamble for them, particularly as most limited-release films tend to be cheaper.

The Eclipse ($4 Ult, $2 BO) – No, it has nothing to do with Twilight, I’m happy to say. This Irish film (brought to us courtesy of Magnolia Pictures) debuted at last year’s Tribeca Film Festival, where it took home the Best Actor award for Ciaran Hinds, who plays the role of Michael Farr, a widower haunted by what he believes is the ghost of his late wife. Seeking out the advice of a visiting horror novelist (Danish actress Iben Hjejle), he begins to come to terms with his personal tragedies.

Again, the reviews for this film are split (three good, three bad), but the positive ones laud director Conor McPherson as well as the acting of Hinds and Aidan Quinn. More a drama than a true horror film, it currently boasts a rating of 7.3 (with 120 votes).

Given the competition, The Eclipse is a safer bet than Chloe, but all that means is that you’ll be out $2 less if it tanks. This is a crowded weekend, and any one of these titles could be the one to take the crown. (I mean, how many of you ignored my advice and ending up scoring big with The Exploding Girl last week?)

Dancing Across Borders ($3 Ult, $1 BO) – Seems like every week there’s at least one documentary, doesn't it? This one, helmed by filmmaker and longtime dance patron Anne Bass, tells the story of Sokvannara Sar, a young man with prodigious balletic talent discovered by Bass on a trip to Angkor Wat, Cambodia.

Following his discovery, the film chronicles the journey that Bass and Sar take together, as she arranges for him to audition at the prestigious School of the American Ballet in New York. An uplifting story as well as a film of transition and self-discovery, Dancing Across Borders could easily slip in and snag a few PTA points for the very low price of only $3.

Terkel in Trouble ($3 Ult, $1 BO) – This Danish animated film (orig. title: Terkel i knibe) has been translated into numerous languages, and makes its way across the pond this week. There’s not much to say about this film, other than… it looks weird. I don’t know whether the version that will be showing will be the British version (replete with Cockney accents) or an Americanized version, but either way, I don’t see people lining up for this.

It’s rather a coincidence that the main character, Terkel, is roughly the same age as the main character in Diary of a Wimpy Kid, and the setting is roughly the same (middle/secondary school), but if you ask me, I’d rather have seen a full-on animated version of Wimpy Kid, with its simplistic hand-drawn animation, than either the live version or this foreign knockaround. Dubbed-over animation just doesn’t do well… if Ponyo couldn’t draw a convincing audience, this sure won’t.

Ca$h ($2 Ult, $1 BO) – Director Stephen Milburn Anderson (Dead Men Can’t Dance) is responsible for this action thriller which, judging from the trailer, should really have just gone straight to DVD. It stars Chris Hemsworth (Star Trek) and Victoria Profeta as a married couple whose lives are changed dramatically when a suitcase full of money lands on the hood of his car. Of course, they do what anyone with such a bounty does – they go hog wild. That is, until a seedy fellow named Pyke (Sean Bean) comes looking for it. Holding the couple responsible for the money they’ve spent, he forces them to get it all back… by going on a robbery spree of their own. Ooh, that can’t end well…

Ca$h has a current User Rating of 6.3 (with nearly 1,000 votes), and I can’t imagine it going any higher. It’s $2 for a reason… namely, because $1 Ultimate picks just don’t exist. Pass on this one.


My predictions for the weekend of March 19-21, 2010:

1. How to Train Your Dragon - $52 million
2. Hot Tub Time Machine - $24 million
3. Alice in Wonderland – $18 million
4. Diary of a Wimpy Kid - $12 million
5. The Bounty Hunter – $10 million

Well, that will do it for me for another week. Next week, eight new titles grace our presence, including: The Last Song, a feel-good drama starring Miley Cyrus and Greg Kinnear (which is opening next Wednesday); Clash of the Titans, a remake of the 1981 film of the same name starring Avatar hunk Sam Worthington; Why Did I Get Married Too, the latest film from prodigious director Tyler Perry; and five more limited-release films, including Edward Norton’s latest, Leaves of Grass.

Later!








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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 3/26

Post by Buscemi »

How many movies in the past few years have carried the title Cash? There's been a French film with the title, a Canadian film with the title and two straight-to-DVD movies with the title. It's seriously becoming a very unoriginal title.

And an interesting tidbit about Chloe: Natasha Richardson died while Liam Neeson was shooting the film in Montreal. Filming was briefly halted while Neeson was coping with her death but I never saw anything about production continuing so I assumed that the film had been shelved while the actors went on to different projects.
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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 3/26

Post by Shrykespeare »

From what I read, Liam came back to shooting about two weeks after the funeral and finished what remained of his scenes. It took about two days.
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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 3/26

Post by Buscemi »

It looks like Chloe will be opening wider than expected. It's actually opening here on Friday.
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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 3/26

Post by thswrestler160 »

fair warning to anyone who does pick dragon apperantly dreamworks and theaters are having a shit fit with the movie and most theaters with only 1 3d screen are choosing to keep playing alice instead of dragon for 1 week. my home city of terre haute which is a decent size market isn't geting dragon at all 3d or 2d. Clash will b realeased in 3d with no hassle.
to further my thought the weekend warrior has dragon opening to 35.4/130 for the same reason.

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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 3/26

Post by silversurfer19 »

Yeah, from what I've heard audience reaction to the trailer hasn't been that great and so many theatres are keeping the safe bet of Alice in 3D till Clash is released in a couple of weeks. I certainly don't see the $50m+ which has been predicted, and it won't get close to Monsters Vs Aliens.

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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 3/26

Post by Buscemi »

Sounds Disney is getting revenge for Chris Sanders leaving the company (as a result of John Lasseter firing him from Bolt and retooling the entire movie). And how is it that most theatres still only have one auditorium equipped with 3-D? The technology has been around since 2005 but theatres are still too slow to adapt.

Also, I still see Clash Of The Titans having a poor reception (due to the trailers making it look like nothing more than a clone of 300).

And speaking about former Disney employees: co-director of Toy Story 2 and director of (non-Pixar) Surf's Up Ash Brandon has announced a remake of The Secret Of NIMH...in CGI. Expect the outrage in 3....2.....
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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 3/26

Post by silversurfer19 »

Buscemi wrote:Also, I still see Clash Of The Titans having a poor reception (due to the trailers making it look like nothing more than a clone of 300).
And that is a bad thing? I'm pretty sure that if it is being seen as a new 300 then there are $200m worth of reasons as to why Clash will benefit from this. I'd say Clash will be the movie to dominate April in the same way Alice has March. Not to the same extent, but expect $150m minimum.

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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 3/26

Post by Buscemi »

It's a bad thing because 300 has been done to death (just like how The Matrix was done to death in the earlier part of the last decade). I don't think people will want another 300.

Also, it looks as if the director totally missed the point of the original. The original was aimed towards families and had a personality with Harryhausen's effects. This remake is being aimed towards older teenagers (like every other movie that seems to open nowadays) and every effect is soulless CGI. I know you shouldn't judge things by the trailers but it just doesn't feel like Clash Of The Titans. The spirit just seems to be missing.

But then again, I didn't see people flocking to a heavily weirded-out version of Alice In Wonderland where nothing looked like their 1951 counterparts.
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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 3/26

Post by silversurfer19 »

Well, first off people do want another 300 since a prequel is being worked on by Zach Snyder focusing on Xerxes and calls have been coming for a 301 since the success of the first. I personally don't see a need for it, but for a teenage orientated market it is quite obvious that a second movie was always on the cards.

And that brings us to the second point. Yes, in an ideal world a remake would complement the original, but times have moved on since the early 80s and the dominant market at the cinema is older teenagers as opposed to families. So obviously a remake would advertise itself to this market. It's just common business sense. And furthermore, I doubt many teens have even seen the original either so have nothing to compare it to. The spirit may be gone, but the money will just keep on flowing. And with the 3D added to that its success is guaranteed.

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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 3/26

Post by Shrykespeare »

By the way, everyone, I have now created the April Regulars leagues. The themes are:

Ultimate - Back to the Future
Box Office - The Naked Gun/Police Squad


And oops, I screwed up the Naked Gun league by having it start in May, not April. I'll send a message to Manuela to change it.
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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 3/26

Post by BanksIsDaFuture »

Buscemi wrote:And how is it that most theatres still only have one auditorium equipped with 3-D? The technology has been around since 2005 but theatres are still too slow to adapt.
Well, I think it's mostly due to the "recession". At one point, my theater was supposed to have 10 digital theaters at this time, but we only have 3. It costs $15k to convert.

But you'd think they'd get it over with. It's not like 3D is going anywhere any time soon.
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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 3/26

Post by Buscemi »

I understand the recession and all but considering that box office numbers are up and popcorn is sold at a major markup, you think they would have enough money to do the upgrade. Especially since a 3-D showing of Alice In Wonderland or Avatar is going to make more money than a 35mm showing of Repo Men or Remember Me in the same auditorium.
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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 3/26

Post by silversurfer19 »

Is it not true that for the first few weeks cinemas make very little money on movies? I've heard that in its first weekend it only takes in like 10% of its income (with the rest going to the studio) and its only after 4 or 5 weeks it starts to make some serious money? I could be way off here as this is something I've just been told, but that would certainly impact a theatres decisions regarding 3D as for example they would only just be starting to make money on Alice.

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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 3/26

Post by numbersix »

I think you're right, SS. I'm not sure the exact percentage, but I do believe it's the distributors who get the majority of an opening-week box office intake, and the ratio gradually shifts to favour the movie theatre during the following weeks.

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