SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE - THE FILMS OF 7/15

[numbersix]

After a summer of several surprise slumps, last weekend injected some excitement with The Secret Life of Pets blowing past expectations and earning $104m, making it one of the biggest opening weekends for an original film. Mike and Dave Need Wedding Dates performed as expected, and Captain Fantastic was just that on the PTA front.




This weekend will end the furious debate that has been going on not just about this particular film, but in terms of society and the gender divide as a whole. Who would have thought a Ghostbusters (Sony) reboot would do such a thing? But ever since the concept of having female leads play the roles of Ray, Egon, Winston, and Peter, the internet has churned out much spotty-faced fury. The first trailer for the film was one of the most hated on Youtube. A few months ago, the film was all but set to be the flop of the year. And yet, something changed. Audiences were targeted. Tracking was… well… tracked. And it seemed this may not be such a disaster after all, with women and families not so bothered about a new take on the classic films. Some are saying it could open in the 50s. Whatever the rabid haters think, this film will turn out to be a modest hit. I’m predicting an opening of about $40m with a cume of about $100m. In Ultimate it’ll get about 6 T5 points and 1 PTA point, which is only a modest result for your $18/$19, especially when Pete’s Dragon could trump it in all categories. However, in BO its price ($17/18/$20) is a little more appealing, and may be worth nabbing if you haven’t picked up both of this season’s behemoths (The Secret Life of Pets and Suicide Squad).



On the other end of the scale comes The Infiltrator (Broad Green), a true-story crime thriller following a US customs agent who helped bring down notorious Colombian criminal Pablo Escobar. Starring Bryan Cranston, Diane Kruger, and John Leguizamo, this is a good example of counter-programming for mature audiences against a summer of animations and explosion-filled blockbusters. However, the one reason to be wary is its distributor, indie company Broad Green. Outside of surprise hit A Walk in the Woods (propped up by the massive popularity of author Bill Bryson), they’ve never made over $4m. A Wednesday opening isn’t going to help its OW either. It currently stands at 69 in RT, which isn’t great for a film targeted at review-reading older folks. At best, this film will open to about $4m Fri-Sun and net around $20m. PTA and T5 points will be unlikely. That means its price tag of $6 in Ultimate and $5/6 in BO isn’t worth your consideration.


A movie year just wouldn’t be the same without a Woody Allen joint. So this weekend sees the very limited release of Café Society. Without checking the synopsis I can rather fairly assess that it’s about a weedy, nervous guy who pursues and gets a women who is way out of his league, and probably some others along the way. [checks official synopsis]. Yep, I’m right. Jesse Eisenberg gets swept up in the excitement of 1930s high society life, falling for Kristen Stewart, and quite possibly Blake Lively too.

This is Woody’s first film with Amazon Studios, who funded the film and are releasing it through Lionsgate, starting with 5 theatres this weekend before expanding across the summer. Woody’s films can be hit or miss for this game, but the 76% RT score and vague similarities to the hugely successful Midnight in Paris will give this film some modest returns. For $5 in Ultimate you’re probably going to end up with 7 or 8 PTA points, making it very much worth picking. Its $3 price tag in BO is less appealing, with the film unlikely to make it past the $10m mark.


This weekend’s other limited release, Tulip Fever, got Weinsteined, and will now be released in February of next year. And probably without much fanfare either.


My predictions for the weekend:

1. The Secret Life of Pets - $50M
2. Ghostbusters - $40M
3. Finding Dory - $11M
4. The Legend of Tarzan - $11M
5. Mike and Dave Need Wedding Dates - $7.5m
- The Infiltrator - $4M

PTA: Café Society, Captain Fantastic, The Secret Life of Pets, Ghostbusters, Our Little Sister

Next week Ron B will take a look at three wide releases (Ice Age 27, Lights Out, and Star Trek Beyond Caring About Its Original Fans) as well as limited release Ab Fab: The Pension Fund Boost.

[Walleye413]

In my family of 6, my wife and two teenage boys are all excited about Ghostbusters, as am I. And my 12 year girl is interested too. Only the littlest one has shown no interest. I really think it's going to do better than people expect, but the IMDB ratings is going to be crap, so for the purposes of this game it's a tough choice in Ultimate. But in BO I think you'd foolish to steer clear.

[BanksIsDaFuture]

Good reviews definitely have turned the tide on Ghostbusters, it was looking at $20-$25M just a week ago. Think it'll still end up in the mid 30s.

I'm not sure how much of a box office draw Bryan Cranston is, but people love Breaking Bad and Narcos, which is almost the same identical story as The Infiltrator. Low end should be $7-$8M.

1. Secret Life of Pets - $55M
2. Ghostbusters - $32M
3. Finding Dory - $12M
4. The Legend of Tarzan - $10M
5. The Infiltrator/Mike & Dave - $9M

PTA: Cafe Society, Captain Fantastic, Secret Life, Ghostbusters, Infiltrator (low theater count)

[transformers2]

1.The Secret Life of Pets $63 mil
2.Ghostbusters $35 mil
3/4.Finding Dory/Legend of Tarzan $13 mil
5.Mike and Dave $9 mil

[Shrykespeare]

Tranny, who is your new avatar? She hot!!


Celebrity birthdays:

Sela Ward turned 60 on 7/11
Cheech Marin turned 70 on 7/13
Harry Dean Stanton turned 90 on 7/14
Vincent Pastore turned 70 on 7/14
Matthew Fox turned 50 on 7/14
Diane Kruger turns 40 on 7/15
Gabriel Iglesias (Fluffy!) turns 40 on 7/15

[transformers2]

Tranny, who is your new avatar? She hot!!

Alicia Vikander. She's a fucking goddess.

[Shrykespeare]

Friday Estimates

Ghostbusters, $17.2M
Secret Life of Pets, $15.1M
Finding Dory, $3.3M
Legend of Tarzan, $3.3M
Mike & Dave, $2.3M
The Purge 3, $2.0M
Central Intelligence, $1.6M
The Infiltrator, $1.5M
The BFG, $1.1M




Weekend Projections:

Secret Life of Pets, $50.5M
Ghostbusters, $43M
Legend of Tarzan, $11.1M
Finding Dory, $10.9M
Mike & Dave, $7.3M
The Purge 3, $6M
Central Intelligence, $5.1M
The Infiltrator, $4.7M
The BFG, $3.6M
Independence Day, $3.3M


PTA:

Cafe Society, $64K
Secret Life of Pets, $11.5K
Ghostbusterse, $10.8K

[Shrykespeare]

Weekend Estimates


Top 10:
5 points - The Secret Life of Pets, $50.6M
4 points - Ghostbusters, $46.0M
3 points - The Legend of Tarzan, $11.1M
2 points - Finding Dory, $11.0M
1 point - Mike and Dave Need Wedding Dates, $7.5M
The Purge: Election Year, $6.1M
Central Intelligence, $5.3M
The Infiltrator, $5.3M
The BFG, $3.7M
Independence Day; Resurgence, $3.4M



PTA:
5 points - Cafe Society
4 points - Ghostbusters
3 points - The Secret Life of Pets
2 points - Captain Fantastic
1 point - Our Little Sister

[Shrykespeare]

Weekend Actuals

Top 10:
5 points - The Secret Life of Pets, $50.8M
4 points - Ghostbusters, $46.0M
3 points - The Legend of Tarzan, $11.4M
2 points - Finding Dory, $11.3M
1 point - Mike and Dave Need Wedding Dates, $7.7M
The Purge: Election Year, $6.2M
Central Intelligence, $5.4M
The Infiltrator, $5.3M
The BFG, $3.8M
Independence Day; Resurgence, $3.5M



PTA:
5 points - Cafe Society, $71,858
4 points - Ghostbusters, $11,612
3 points - The Secret Life of Pets, $11,604
2 points - Captain Fantastic, $8,025
1 point - Our Little Sister, $3,756

[numbersix]

Is Ron doing a write-up of this week's films?

[Shrykespeare]

He's leaving it late if he is....