The Conjuring 2 becomes the 1st sequel this summer to even come close to its first installment, with an impressive $40M opening (vs. The Conjuring's $41M 2013 debut). The supernatural Part 2 has been keeping close to The Conjuring's daily box office, so a similar total ($125M+) isn't out of the question, especially with no horror films until Lights Out. The other sequel this weekend couldn't keep up with its predecessor, 2013's Now You See Me, but the imaginatively titled Now You See Me 2 opened to a respectable $22M, good enough for 3rd place. However, with way worse reviews, the magician caper won't come close to the original's $100M+ total; it's looking at a finish in the $55M-$65M ballpark. Splitting the difference was the long-in-the-works video game adaptation Warcraft, which overcame its horrendous sub-20% RT and convinced $24M worth of World of Warcraft players to part with their money this weekend. Openly below both Battleship and John Carter (other trouble productions with less-than-stellar reviews) isn't a great sign, and it should finish below $60M when all is said and done - not good for Universal's $160M+ budget. However, China seems to fucking love it for some reason, so don't be surprised if we get a Warcraft 2: Shangai Rising in 2019 starring Jackie Chan and a K-POP singer.
Out of the 3 new limited releases, only 2 could make any traction this weekend: Roadside's Genius notched only 2 PTA points, while Cohen Media Group's French drama Diary of A Chambermaid will have to settle for its lone PTA point. The three wide releases topped the PTA board as well, in the same order as their box office.
This weekend's wide releases...
Finding Dory (BV) - Just a year after one of Pixar's most popular original films ever in Inside Out (and 8 months after the less-liked-but-still-orginal-concept The Good Dinosaur), The House That Woody Built is seemingly backsliding into their recent trend of sequels on sequels. However, this weekend sees a sequel to what is easily Top 3 Beloved Pixar Films (alongside Toy Story and The Incredibles) as Finding Dory swims into almost 4,000 2D, 3D, and 3D IMAX theaters. This follow-up to 2003's Finding Nemo brings former sidekick Dory (voiced by Ellen Degeneres) into the spotlight as it explores her past, discovers how she ended up with short term memory loss, and Nemo's dad Marlin (voiced by Albert Brooks) returns the favor by helping her search for her parents. Unlike some of Pixar's past sequels, Finding Dory has been beloved by critics leading up to release sitting at 93% RT - giving credence to some predictions aiming at a $100M+ opening weekend.
Last June, Inside Out posted Pixar's biggest opening for an original film with $90M - an opening that would've been easily $110M+ if not for Jurassic World's massive 2nd weekend (2nd best sophomore frame all-time, in fact, and #1 at the time). And just to prove that nothing, even Pixar, is guaranteed in this life, four months later their original The Good Dinosaur posted the 2nd worst opening in company history ($39M) over Thanksgiving weekend. But Finding Dory is far from an original Pixar, it just happens to be a decade-in-the-making sequel to the 3rd highest grossing Pixar film in history: Finding Nemo ($70M/$339M). Most are looking to the long-awaited Toy Story 3 ($110M/$415M) to set a precedent for Dory, however Toy Story 2 was left open-ended to finish the trilogy, making a sequel an event for multiple generations. I've never seen much fanfare for a Nemo sequel, and this approaches Monsters University ($82M/$268M) in the field of Pixar followups.
The big difference between Monsters University and Finding Dory is the critical acclaim: MU was seen as passable for the company's storied history of excellent stories (78% RT), while Dory is being touted as another beloved notch in the Pixar belt (93% RT). Inside Out was rocking the 100% RT upon release, and the buzz was through the roof opening weekend; Finding Dory doesn't have that level of anticipation right now, but with its reviews and 10 years of memories of Nemo, Dory is poised to be the studio's biggest non-Buzz and Woody sequel.
The Prediction - Finding Dory is looking to to split the difference between Toy Story 3 and Monsters University, but won't have much trouble reigning supreme over the summer box office with no family competition until The Secret Life of Pets. Pixar's latest will open to $95M, amassing 19 Top 5 points, 12 PTA points, and a total with a floor of at least $340M. At $55, Finding Dory is far and away the most expensive property of the season, but unless you believe any of the other presumed heavy hitters (ID42, Pets, or Suicide Squad) with a mid-range title can outdo Ellen, you'll need this anchor.
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Central Intelligence (WB) - Refusing to take his foot off the gas, Kevin Hart makes sure that he retains his self-imposed title as The Hardest Working Comedian In The World, as his 2nd of 3 films this year (January's Ride Along 2 and October's What Now, the other two) carhood-slides it way into over 3,500 theaters this weekend. Central Intelligence follows meek accountant, Calvin (Hart), discovers an old high school friend through Facebook - but Calvin soon discovers the former chubby, unpopular Bob (played by Dwayne Johnson) is now a badass CIA agent in the middle of an international arms sting. Calvin quickly gets caught up in Bob's action-movie world against his will, and hijinks (presumably) ensue. From the director of We're The Millers, the PG-13 comedy also stars Amy Ryan and Aaron Paul and is currently sitting at a decent (but great for Hart's comedies) 56% on RT.
The pairing of perhaps the most popular comedian right now and the biggest action star in Hollywood seems like a match made in box office Heaven, but there's one small problem: Central Intelligence looks uninspired and downright not that funny. The marketing, and by proxy - the film itself, has been lazy, keen to hang everything on the charisma of Hart and Johnson without pulling any weight of its own. Kevin Hart is usually able to open his films to $30M, especially the ones where he has another star to bounce off of, like Ride Along ($41M/$134M) or Get Hard ($33M/$90M), and there's no reason to believe that won't hold true with The Rock. It has been years since Johnson has done straight comedy, as he's been focused to cornering the action star market, culminating in last summer's San Andreas ($54M/$155M).
The other omnipotent comedy star of the moment, Melissa McCarthy, had her own star-driven opening this time last summer, as Spy opened to a decent $29M on its way to $110M. Similar numbers are in store for the Big Johnson and Little Hart team-up, with the probability of a slightly higher total due to its teenager-friendly PG-13 and weeks before Mike And Dave Need Wedding Dates imposes on its terroritory.
The Prediction - Central Intelligence will continue Kevin Hart's streak of successful, if lukewarm, comedies as he cements his role as the most reliable comedian in Hollywood, and The Rock continues his ascension from supporting player in franchises to bonafide leading man. It will open to $37M, grab 8 Top 5 points, 4 PTA points, before ending its run with $120M - becoming Hart's 2nd highest grossing film as a lead and ensuring we'll keep getting multiple films of his for years to come. It will cost you $18 in the June-August BO Leagues, and with Ghostbusters the only other similarly priced title, it's hard to determine which one has the better chance of breaking out past low expectations.
This week's limited release...
Clown (Weinstein) - The first of two horror films this summer based off of a viral short video, Clown is the 90 minute version of a fake trailer created by an aspiring director way back in 2010. The trailer was seen by horror producer/director Eli Roth, who hired the director to fill out his trailer to a full length film (and it worked well, as the director, Jon Watts, is directing next year's Spider-Man Marvel movie, Spiderman: Homecoming). Clown follows suburban dad Kent (played by unknown Andy Powers) who, in the middle of his son's birthday party, stumbles upon a clown suit in his house that nobody recognizes. Since the birthday entertainment flakes out, his wife convinces Kent to put it on and take on child-entertaining duties - until the suit refuses to come off and begins to control Kent to murder and eat children.
Clown has been sitting on the shelf for almost 3 years, and TWC will be dumping it into over 100 2nd run theaters. This tactic (aka dumping) never produces PTA points, evidenced by March's The Other Side of The Door ($1M/$3M) in 585 theaters or last summer's The Vatican Tapes ($800k/$1.7M) in 400 theaters. Both were available in our game, neither came close to gaining any points, and nothing will be different this weekend. Skip Clown.
Dory's Looking To Find Success This Weekend of June 17th-June 19th:
1. Finding Dory - $95M
2. Central Intelligence - $37M
3. The Conjuring 2 - $21M
4. Now You See Me 2 - $11M
5. Warcraft - $10M
PTA: Finding Dory, Central Intelligence, The Conjuring 2, Genius, Now You See Me 2
The candidates to come in 2nd behind Dory next weekend are varied, to say the least: the Will Smith-less sequel, Independence Day: Resurgence, will take on the McConaughey slave drama The Free State of Jones and Blake Lively's Great White thriller, The Shallows. We'll also see the return of interesting and viable PTA options like Swiss Army Man, Weiner-Dog, and doc Eat That Question.
